Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 300532 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. A WIND SHIFT WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE E PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15KTS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AGAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014...
.UPDATE...
DROPPED RED RIVER LOW TEMPERATURES NIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION AND GFS BASED MOS
GUIDANCE. ALSO NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
LAST NIGHTS READINGS...THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED
A FEW CLOUDS TO THE SKY GRIDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND
NORTHEAST AREAS ON THURSDAY.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD NEW MEXICO
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL EFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
THURSDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGES TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
OF MAINLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE- DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO MAKING
INROADS EASTWARD TOWARD NM TODAY. RISING HEIGHTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
RESULTING IN WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALL LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THIS MORNINGS READINGS. RIDGE AXIS/HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
THURSDAY. NORMALLY...VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE/BREAK
AS TEMPERATURES NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM BUT A
DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NE AND HELP
WITH MIXING LATE THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL PUSH WWD THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND MID MORNING. MAIN SFC HIGH OVER NRN PLAINS SLIDES SE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SELY TO SLY RETURN FLOW SETUP. GFS
AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT DEVELOPING...EXPECT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES OVER NW NM SATURDAY IN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING ASHORE OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE AREAS TYPICALLY FAVORED BY RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GENERALLY FROM DULCE TO CHAMA AND THEN EAST
TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
PERIOD OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS
NOW SLOWER WITH DROPPING SNOW LEVELS. SNOW LEVEL DROP TO AROUND 8000
FT OVER THE NW QUARTER OF OF THE STATE BY ABOUT SUNRISE SUNDAY.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

GFS AND ECMWF STRUGGLING MIGHTILY BEYOND MONDAY MORNING WITH HOW
TO HANDLE A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE MAIN LONG-WAVE TROUGH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ENOUGH
CHANGE RUN TO RUN TO COMPLETELY CHANGE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW OVER
AZ BRINGING UP REMNANT MOISTURE FROM `DISTURBANCE 1` IN THE FAR
ERN PACIFIC OR DRY AND COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS MONDAY INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. VENTILATION
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENTS
FRIDAY/WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE AREA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND DURING THE TROUGH PASSAGE. NEAR TERM DRYING DUE TO THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION/ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL BE REPLACED WITH
SOME MOISTENING DUE TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY/WEEKEND.

THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. TEEN HUMIDITY VALUES CURRENTLY EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF I40
MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST VENT RATE FORECAST
STILL SHOWS SOME POOR VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS TIED TO NEAR
NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLIDE CLOSER TO THE STATE TONIGHT AND LEAD TO ANOTHER
MODERATELY STRENGTH RADIATION INVERSION. MID SLOPE RECOVERIES WILL
TREND EVEN LOWER TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. A RIBBON OF BREEZY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT LOSE ITS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL BE
SQUARELY CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
PRETTY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. THIS WOULD BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...5 TO 10 DEGREES WEST AND A
FEW DEGREES EAST. STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS
BETWEEN GRANTS TO ALBUQUERQUE. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER SOME DUE
TO THE RIDGE AXIS PROXIMITY THUS WIDESPREAD POOR RATES EXIST IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...INCLUDING THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BETTER READINGS FOUND NEAR THE FRONT DUE TO
HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS.

MODERATE GAP WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RH VALUES WILL
IMPROVE AS A RESULT OF THIS EAST/SOUTHEAST PUSH. THE STAGE WILL THEN
BE SET FOR BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION ERODES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH/RIDGE BREAK DOWN. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...MID LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE THUS LEADING TO
STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER VENT RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE MUCH HIGHER AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DESPITE
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE. SOME DRIER SPOT SHOWERS CONTAINING
GUSTIER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS WHEN THE DYNAMICS LINE UP FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER GROWTH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST POSSIBILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. WINDS WOULD
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY TRENDS LOOK TO BE
VARIABLE DUE TO VARIABLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS.
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER.
VENTILATION WOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT
WINDS.

MODELS HAVE JUMPED AROUND A BIT ON WANTING TO CUT A PIECE OF ENERGY
OFF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND KEEP IT NEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS MODEL IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
FINISHING UP ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT STILL CUTS OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
WEATHER TRENDS EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IT CAN GO EITHER WAY. WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOPE TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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