Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 100917
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
317 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
TODAY AND MOVE EAST INTO NEARBY VALLEYS AND HIGHLANDS. STEERING FLOW
WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN EASTERLY
WAVE SLIDING WEST INTO THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL FORCE THE
MOISTURE PLUME WELL INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. THE COVERAGE
OF STORMS WILL DECREASE...PARTICULARLY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE EAST.
MODELS INDICATE A POWERFUL AND MOIST COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY POTENTIALLY
RESULT IN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING SO FAR
THIS SUMMER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN AXIS OF MOIST INSTABILITY WILL BE CENTERED FROM EASTERN AZ INTO
CENTRAL NM TODAY. BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SPC ENSEMBLE
PULLS BACK THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING A
DECENT CROP OF STORMS TODAY WITH DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SW TO NE NEAR 15 KTS.
NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES WILL MAINTAIN NEAR 1 INCH
THROUGH THE DAY RATHER THAN FALL LIKE THEY DID YESTERDAY IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO PROGGED QUITE LOW SO POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING IS LOOKING GOOD.

FRIDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. A
WELL DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE WITH A DRY SLOT ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN NM. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
OVER CENTRAL NM WHILE STEERING FLOWS BECOME VERY LIGHT. TRADITIONALLY
THIS CAN BE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL FORCE THE MOISTURE PLUME EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE SAME SCENARIO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL BE HOT OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES SUNDAY ON THE IMPACT OF THE WEAKENING EASTERLY WAVE OVER
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
WILL SEE A DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE WHILE PERHAPS THE NW CORNER HAS THE
GREATEST CHANCES.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD ON A MAJOR WOW PERIOD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKENING EASTERLY WAVE WILL NUDGE THE SHEARING UPPER
RIDGE FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
500MB HEIGHT SHOWS THIS TROUGH AT -2.9 STANDARD DEVIATIONS NEXT
TUESDAY. A VERY STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTERACTS WITH SEVERAL UPPER
WAVES PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVER NM. MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING WPC ALREADY
SHOW WIDESPREAD LIKELY CHANCES ALL THE WAY TO DAY 7. IF THIS WERE TO
PAN OUT WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MODERATELY WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A
VERY WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THEN AREAWIDE NEXT WEEK.

A MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD CONTINUE ARCING ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY ROUNDS
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS
WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. AN EASTERLY WAVE IS
PROGGED TO PASS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE RING OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THIS WAVE
SHOULD HAVE A DRYING EFFECT ON THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
STARTING FRIDAY...THEN ALSO ACROSS S CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY. A
WETTER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
WAVE ON SUNDAY RETURNING GOOD WETTING STORM COVERAGE TO S CENTRAL
AREAS AND POSSIBLY TO PARTS OF THE SE PLAINS SUNDAY.  ALSO
SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
STRADDLE THE NM/CO BORDER TRIGGERING INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE NE.

NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY BROAD
AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG AND WET BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO NM
FROM THE NE. MEANWHILE...PERTURBATIONS IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER NM.  AT THIS TIME...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PENETRATE
NORTHEAST AREAS STARTING MONDAY...AND THIS FRONT MAY REACH ALL THE
WAY TO THE AZ BORDER BY MID DAY TO MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. A DEEPER
PERTURBATION IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO
APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE NNW THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER PERSISTENT WET
EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. THEN...READINGS
SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IF THE
FRONT ARRIVES AS SCHEDULED.  POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE BRIEF WIND SHIFTS AND MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL BUT SHORT LIVED SHRAS/TSRAS TO DEVELOP. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO THIN BY LATE THURS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE
NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY
RELEGATED TO THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHERN MTS WITH SLOW
ESE MOVEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND NE MOVEMENT ACROSS SW NM.
STORMS WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS BY LATE AFTN THURSDAY...
AND COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CEIL/VSBYS AND GUSTS UP TO 40KT. KLVS
AND KSAF AMONG THE TERMINAL SITES FAVORED WITH THURSDAYS STORM
MOTION...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY PREVAILING/
TEMPO GROUP. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTN...
PROVIDING AFTN GUSTS UP TO 30KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  91  63  92  63 /  20  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  86  48  87  49 /  30  30  30  30
CUBA............................  84  54  85  56 /  40  40  50  50
GALLUP..........................  87  57  87  57 /  20  30  20  30
EL MORRO........................  80  54  79  54 /  30  30  40  30
GRANTS..........................  84  54  85  55 /  30  30  40  30
QUEMADO.........................  81  56  80  57 /  30  40  50  30
GLENWOOD........................  88  55  88  56 /  30  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  80  46  81  46 /  50  40  50  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  62  83  62 /  40  30  40  40
PECOS...........................  78  56  79  56 /  50  40  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  80  53  80  54 /  40  40  50  40
RED RIVER.......................  71  46  72  46 /  60  40  70  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  77  40  78  40 /  60  30  60  50
TAOS............................  84  51  84  51 /  40  30  30  30
MORA............................  78  53  79  53 /  60  50  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  87  59  88  60 /  30  30  30  30
SANTA FE........................  80  61  82  61 /  40  40  40  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  87  59  88  59 /  30  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  88  67  88  67 /  20  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  90  69  90  68 /  20  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  65  91  64 /  20  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  68  93  68 /  20  30  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  93  62  92  62 /  20  30  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  92  67  93  67 /  20  30  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  95  70  94  68 /  20  20  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  62  86  62 /  30  30  50  30
TIJERAS.........................  88  62  87  61 /  30  30  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  55  83  55 /  40  30  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  81  58  83  57 /  50  30  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  84  62  84  60 /  30  30  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  86  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  82  55  82  52 /  40  20  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  84  60  83  59 /  30  20  40  30
RATON...........................  86  60  86  60 /  60  20  20  30
SPRINGER........................  89  59  89  59 /  60  30  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  81  55  83  54 /  60  40  30  30
CLAYTON.........................  92  65  92  64 /  20  10  10  20
ROY.............................  87  62  88  60 /  30  20  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  93  67  94  66 /  20  10   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  90  65  90  63 /  20  20  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  67  95  66 /  10  10   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  89  60  87  59 /   5   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  92  63  90  62 /   5   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  66  92  64 /  10  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  95  66  94  64 /   5   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  87  61  86  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELK.............................  82  57  81  55 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.