Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 171012
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR WESTERN...AND PERHAPS TO SOME
EXTENT...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
COMMON ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER THE LAST SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A
MUCH QUIETER FRIDAY WILL PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THAT TO CHANGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF TODAYS EVENT BY THE MODELS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS THAT THEY HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT. TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS NM
TODAY...BOTH CURRENTLY WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING OFF
THE COAST OF CALI. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM IN ARIZONA AND TO SOME EXTENT WESTERN NM. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS NM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NW QUARTER OF NM. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU...THUS A GOOD CALL BY THE EVENING CREW TO
ADD ZONE 501 TO THE WINTER WX ADVY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FIRST AND CROSS NM LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVE. SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 5500-6000 FEET OR SO.
WHILE THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BRING A MORE SOLID AREA OF SNOW...THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL GENERALLY
BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.ONE INTERESTING NOTE...HOWEVER...IS
THAT THE HRRR HAS TRENDED BACK ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS...AT LEAST WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...THE WINTER WX ADVYS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MTNS TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THEN...AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD TEMPS
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS LOW...GENERALLY AOB 5500 FEET.

AFTER THE THIRD SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY SHOULD BE
QUIET...THOUGH STILL CHILLY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH CROSSING NM
ON SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP ATTM. THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
BE THE RULE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW MAY
CLIP NE NM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TOO DRY.
GUSTIER NW WINDS AND DECENT VENTILATION IN AREAS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ORGANIZATION
IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER ARIZONA. SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY PERIOD WITH LINGERING IMPACTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
WEST FACING SLOPES LOOK TO BE FAVORED WITH THE WETTING
PRECIPITATION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE SCANT PRECIPITATION RESULTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGH RH VALUES FAVORING
THE WESTERN HALF. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RISING MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE IMPROVING VENTILATION MOST AREAS.
THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES/PEAKS.

A SECONDARY PACIFIC WAVE OR TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TAKING THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SO IMPACTS TO THE FIRE WX
AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EITHER WAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS. MIXING
HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY/S
VALUES. THUS...VENT RATES WILL LOWER. LOOKING AT A STRIP OF FAIR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN FARMINGTON TO THE ESTANCIA VALLEY BUT WOULD ONLY
BE FAIR FOR 2 TO 4 HRS MOST LOCATIONS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
A NON EVENT. THERE WILL BE A PACIFIC WAVE CAUGHT IN NW FLOW MOVING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL BE FOUND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND PROVIDE SOME BREEZES ON SUNDAY.
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE MT TAYLOR TO CLINES CORNER AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. VENTILATION RATES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS
GENERALLY LASTING A FEW HRS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GUSTIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD
IMPROVE IN AREAS DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS BUT LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL PRESENT SOME OF THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO THE
FAIR/GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS. SUSPECT VENT RATE VALUES WILL
ADJUST SOME AS THE FLOW ADJUSTS. THE FLOW DOES LOOK TO BE DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING A BIT WARMER. THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE ECMWF IS
STILL SPITTING OUT LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WORTH OF CONSISTENT
MODEL RUNS BEFORE TOTALLY BUYING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS MOST AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORN HOURS WED ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RA AND SN. MOST OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM QUEMADO
TO RIO RANCHO TO SAF AND RTN. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND
OCCASIONALLY IFR IN THIS AREA STARTING BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z WITH A
FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN HEAVIER SHSN. GUP
AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE FMN TO BE MOST IMPACTED BY THE LOW
CIGS AND PRECIP. MARGINALLY MVFR CIGS POSS AT AEG...ABQ AND SAF
BETWEEN ABOUT 15 AND 23Z WED AND AGAIN AFTER 02Z. MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WED MORN AT ROW WITH A LOWER
CONFIDENCE OF SAME AT TCC SAME TIME PERIOD...THOUGH STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT MVFR DECK WILL REMAIN EAST OR SE OF THOSE
SITES. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  26  42  20 /  70  40  20   5
DULCE...........................  37  21  37  14 /  70  50  20  20
CUBA............................  37  22  36  16 /  80  60  20  20
GALLUP..........................  39  21  39  14 /  80  40  20   5
EL MORRO........................  36  21  35  13 /  70  50  30  10
GRANTS..........................  41  22  40  13 /  60  40  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  38  23  34  22 /  60  40  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  50  31  48  28 /  50  40  40  20
CHAMA...........................  36  19  35  13 /  80  60  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  28  37  25 /  60  40  20  20
PECOS...........................  37  25  38  21 /  50  30  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  16  33  11 /  70  40  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  30  14  31   6 /  80  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  11  34   3 /  70  40  20  20
TAOS............................  39  19  38  14 /  60  30  20  20
MORA............................  40  24  40  18 /  50  30  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  43  26  42  22 /  40  30  10  10
SANTA FE........................  39  27  38  25 /  60  40  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  23  41  21 /  50  30  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  28  43  27 /  60  30  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  48  29  45  28 /  50  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  26  46  25 /  50  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  28  45  26 /  50  20  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  50  22  46  21 /  50  20  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  47  30  45  27 /  50  30  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  52  28  47  27 /  30  20  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  26  39  24 /  60  30  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  44  28  41  24 /  60  30  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44  19  42  18 /  40  30  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  24  39  20 /  50  20  10  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  27  41  25 /  40  30  10  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  28  45  26 /  30  20  10  40
RUIDOSO.........................  43  24  44  22 /  40  20  10  50
CAPULIN.........................  42  19  40  17 /  40  20  10  20
RATON...........................  45  20  45  16 /  40  20  10  20
SPRINGER........................  48  21  46  20 /  30  10   5  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  45  23  45  18 /  40  10   5  20
CLAYTON.........................  50  25  45  26 /  10  10   5  20
ROY.............................  48  24  46  23 /  20  10   5  20
CONCHAS.........................  54  30  50  30 /  10   5   5  20
SANTA ROSA......................  55  32  51  29 /  20   5   5  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  57  29  51  27 /  10   0   5  20
CLOVIS..........................  54  31  53  29 /  10   0   5  30
PORTALES........................  55  30  54  29 /  10   0   5  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  54  31  54  30 /  10   0   5  20
ROSWELL.........................  61  31  56  32 /   5   0   5  30
PICACHO.........................  52  31  51  30 /  20   5   5  40
ELK.............................  49  30  49  28 /  30  10  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-510-511.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>514.

&&

$$

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