Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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334
FXUS65 KABQ 070950
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY TUESDAY...AND WILL PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS DRIER AND
WARMER...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/COLD
FRONT OR TWO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PRODUCE SOME RELATIVELY
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS NORTH AND EAST BUT VARIATIONS DIMINISH
AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PROMINENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALL AREAS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREEZES
CENTRAL AND EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK WAVE TRAVERSES
THE RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE DOESN/T SEEM TO BECOME AS SMUSHED BY THE
DISTURBANCE AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO DIPSY DOODLE IN REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
FORECAST. IT/S NOW DRY WITH JUST A HINT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH IT/S PREVIOUS RUNS OF A WETTER
SYSTEM/COLD FRONT...BUT WITH DELAYED TIMING...MORE TOWARDS LATE
NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. STILL LOOKING FOR A WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A FEW TEMPORARY PAUSES
DUE TO BACK DOOR FRONTS. POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE OUTSIDE
OF A FEW FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. STILL
NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS EITHER.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL INCH
EASTWARD BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN A BIT BY A SYSTEM ROUNDING THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NONETHELESS...STILL LOOKING LIKE THE RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY. ONE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE TODAY WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORMAL...THUS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL BE THE RULE TUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

DESPITE THE WARMING...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW WITH
LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS. THIS WILL MEAN POOR VENTILATION THROUGH THE
WEEK FOR THE MOST PART. LEE SIDE TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE AS
STRONG ON WEDNESDAY AS IT DID YDAY...BUT DOES LOOK TO BE A BIT
STRONGER ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS HOWEVER.

HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW THIS WEEK...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WHEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION IS STRONGEST.
DESPITE THE POOR MIXING...SHOULD STILL SEE HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS TEMPS SOAR BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP-FLOP FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK PERIOD REGARDING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH WHAT AMOUNTS TO JUST A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A CLOSED LOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS
AZ AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NM. THIS LATTER SCENARIO WOULD PROBABLY BRING
SOME DECENT PRECIP TO THE STATE...WHILE THE FORMER SCENARIO WOULD
KEEP IT DRY. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK WIND SHIFTS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 12
KT.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  18  47  19 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  41   5  43   7 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  44  15  45  14 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  53  12  53  15 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  48  10  51  14 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  54  13  55  13 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  51  19  53  15 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  61  23  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  42  10  41   8 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  47  24  48  24 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  49  22  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  41   7  41   9 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  43   4  39   9 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  43  -5  42   4 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  44   9  44  12 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  49  19  48  18 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  51  19  53  21 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  47  23  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  49  23  51  23 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  25  54  26 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  27  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  54  22  57  26 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  54  23  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  56  23  58  23 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  53  26  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  58  28  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  47  23  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  48  24  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  49  18  53  19 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  45  21  46  24 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  53  24  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  27  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  54  27  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  47  16  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  50  15  51  20 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  52  18  53  20 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  19  52  22 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  50  21  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  51  20  52  24 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  55  20  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  57  20  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  58  21  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  57  23  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  59  23  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  60  23  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  65  24  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  64  25  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  61  25  54  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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