Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 202042
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  69  43  70 /  10  20  30   0
DULCE...........................  37  63  37  66 /  10  30  50  20
CUBA............................  41  64  40  66 /  10  30  40  30
GALLUP..........................  40  66  36  69 /  10  30  30   0
EL MORRO........................  36  61  36  66 /  20  30  40   0
GRANTS..........................  39  65  37  69 /  10  30  30   5
QUEMADO.........................  43  62  42  66 /  20  30  30   0
GLENWOOD........................  38  71  38  74 /  20  20  20   0
CHAMA...........................  32  61  33  63 /  10  40  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  61  46  63 /  20  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  41  57  40  63 /  20  30  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  64  38  66 /  20  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  39  54  39  56 /  30  40  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  59  29  61 /  20  30  40  30
TAOS............................  38  64  38  65 /  10  20  30  10
MORA............................  40  61  40  64 /  20  30  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  46  68  47  70 /  10  20  30  10
SANTA FE........................  44  62  43  65 /  20  30  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  65  42  68 /  20  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  66  49  69 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  68  50  70 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  70  46  72 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  69  50  71 /  10  20  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  70  42  72 /  10  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  48  69  49  71 /  10  20  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  48  70  46  74 /  20  20  30   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  41  61  41  66 /  20  30  40  20
TIJERAS.........................  44  63  39  67 /  20  30  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  65  35  69 /  20  30  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  62  40  66 /  30  30  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  63  43  66 /  30  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  66  42  70 /  30  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  41  63  38  65 /  30  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  43  67  45  66 /  10  20  20  20
RATON...........................  40  70  42  70 /  10  10  20  20
SPRINGER........................  41  69  43  70 /  10  10  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  62  40  68 /  20  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  48  74  50  72 /  10  10  10  20
ROY.............................  45  67  46  67 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  50  73  50  76 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  48  69  48  74 /  20  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  75  51  76 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  68  51  72 /  20  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  52  68  52  74 /  30  40  30  30
PICACHO.........................  47  63  49  68 /  30  40  30  30
ELK.............................  44  59  43  63 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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