Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 200912 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
312 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend commences today under a drier westerly flow but daytime
temperatures will remain below seasonal averages. Even warmer temperatures
on Sunday will be accompanied by some shower and thunderstorm activity
along and east of the central mountain chain. The southeast and northeast
corners look favored for wetting rainfall Sunday afternoon and evening.
Additional warming on Monday will promote a bit more shower and
thunderstorm activity mainly over the higher terrain and across the
east. Another potent cold front looks to impact central and eastern
areas on Tuesday where strong to severe storms could return. Thereafter,
warmer and drier weather looks to predominate the balance of the work
week but isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning`s chilly start will give way to a nice warm-up in the
afternoon but readings still below (well below) seasonal average.
Forecast highs across northeast NM, for example, are more typical of
early April than late May. 500mb geopotential heights to rise a good
40-80m just today. Low clouds or patches of fog evident in satellite
and observational data from the Moreno Valley and east slopes this
morning in weak upslope regime. Will monitor EC zones for stratus
development through daybreak. Otherwise, dry forecast today.

Mid-level flow tends more westerly tonight into Sunday per 00Z model
output as 500mb heights continue to slowly rise/recover. Weak low-
amplitude shortwave modeled to pass south of the Bootheel early
Sunday while minor perturbation indicated vicinity of the Four
Corners late in day. At the same time, low level sely flow will
engender a noticeable moistening trend for mainly SE NM on Sunday.
Corridor of upper 40 to lower 50 dew points forecast by the GFS/NAM
along the mid and lower Pecos Valley extending westward toward
the east slopes of the SC mtns that contributes to surface- based
CAPE values around 1500 J/kg during peak heating. Only changes to
PoP/wx grids was to expand mention of isolated SHRA/TSRA eastward
across Chaves Co. Elsewhere, the ECMWF argues for isolated
SHRA/TSRA over the higher terrain west of Socorro and vicinity of
ABQ while the GFS/NAM are less aggressive with the westward push
of low level moisture.

Going into Monday, another perturbation in the northwest flow may
boost SHRA/TSRA coverage for areas east of the Divide and especially
vicinity of the central mountain chain eastward combined with
additional boundary layer warming. Otherwise, higher dew point air
indicated for much of central and eastern NM and especially the
EC plains where the focus for wetting rainfall looks greatest.

Another potent cold front indicated during the Monday night-Tuesday
period. Strong to isolated severe storms possible on the plains as
this front presses southward beneath moderately strong mid-level NWLY
flow. Gusty east canyon winds also appear likely for the Rio Grande
Valley as early as Tuesday afternoon but especially Tuesday evening
with a relatively moist easterly push reaching the Continental
Divide or just west by daybreak Wednesday. This could set up some
high based shower or thunderstorm activity for Wednesday PM more than
what either the GFS or ECMWF currently show but it will do battle
with strengthening ridge aloft. Drier southwest flow looks to
dominate Thursday- Friday but likely to have a dryline scenario
in the east on Thursday with some high based shower/tstm activity
north. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After a cool start this morning, temperatures will start to warm,
although highs will remain about 5 to 15 degrees below average.
Lighter winds and dry weather will also be featured with a weakening
northwest flow aloft. Vent rates to be generally good with some
areas of fair to poor rates over the far west, far east and in the
Rio Grande Valley.

Lows tonight won`t be as cold with good humidity recoveries over the
north and east. The Middle Rio Grande and portions of the west
central and southwest could see only fair recoveries overnight.

Low level south and southeast winds will become established Sunday
and moreso Sunday night and Monday, transporting moisture into
southern and eastern New Mexico. This will result in increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from the central mountain chain
over the eastern plains. Some moisture may seep north and westward
into the Rio Grande Valley and west central mountains Sunday night
and to the Contdvd Monday for isolated activity, although drier
northwest flow will help mix out any moisture that does make it west
of the central mountain chain. High temperatures Sunday and Monday
will be near to a few degrees below average. Vent rates both days
are forecast to be good to excellent.

A ridge of high pressure to our west early to mid next week will
allow a couple of vigorous cold fronts to plunge into eastern NM,
setting up a slosh of low level moisture over the central and east,
and largely holding high temperatures near to below normal through
next Wednesday. The front Tuesday impacting the east may travel as
far west as the Arizona border Tuesday night. The upper level ridge
expected over New Mexico for the mid to late week period now appears
to be temporary, and increasing westerly winds may dominate next
Thursday and Friday as an upper trough moves into the northwestern
US. Isolated mountain convection looks to be the extent of any
precipitation though, otherwise near normal highs with afternoon
westerly breezes are featured.
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NW flow aloft as upper low over CO ejects into the plains. Lingering
isold MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys with mt obscurations in -shrasn north
central and far ne NM until around 13Z. Lcl MVFR to IFR cigs may
develop from the KLVS area to KRTN 10Z-15Z as well due to moist low
level upslope flow as sfc high pressure builds swd. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  61  31  68  36 /   0   0   5  10
Cuba............................  63  37  71  42 /   0   0   5   5
Gallup..........................  67  33  76  38 /   0   0   5   5
El Morro........................  64  33  73  36 /   0   0   5   5
Grants..........................  67  34  77  38 /   0   0   5   5
Quemado.........................  67  40  76  45 /   0   0   5  10
Glenwood........................  82  42  88  44 /   0   0   0   5
Chama...........................  58  31  64  35 /   5   0   5  10
Los Alamos......................  61  43  69  48 /   0   0   5  10
Pecos...........................  63  38  70  41 /   0   0  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  59  33  67  37 /   5   0  10  10
Red River.......................  54  28  62  31 /   5   0  20  20
Angel Fire......................  54  26  62  31 /   5   0  20  20
Taos............................  61  32  69  37 /   0   0   5  10
Mora............................  60  37  67  40 /   0   0  20  20
Espanola........................  68  43  76  48 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  62  43  70  47 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  66  41  75  45 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  49  78  53 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  72  48  79  53 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  74  50  82  54 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  73  47  81  51 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  73  45  82  49 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  73  46  81  51 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  75  50  83  55 /   0   0   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  65  40  73  45 /   0   0  10  30
Tijeras.........................  67  44  76  49 /   0   0   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  66  38  74  43 /   0   0  10  20
Clines Corners..................  64  40  72  45 /   0   0  10  30
Gran Quivira....................  68  43  76  49 /   0   0  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  73  48  79  53 /   0   0   5  20
Ruidoso.........................  68  42  72  46 /   0   0  30  30
Capulin.........................  58  37  66  41 /   5   0  20  20
Raton...........................  64  35  72  39 /   5   0  20  20
Springer........................  65  38  73  41 /   0   0  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  63  38  71  42 /   0   0  20  20
Clayton.........................  65  42  73  46 /   0   0  20  40
Roy.............................  62  42  71  45 /   5   0  20  40
Conchas.........................  70  49  79  55 /   0   0   5  30
Santa Rosa......................  72  45  79  51 /   0   0   5  30
Tucumcari.......................  73  48  82  55 /   0   0   5  30
Clovis..........................  72  46  80  54 /   0   0  10  20
Portales........................  73  48  79  57 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  73  49  79  57 /   0   0  10  30
Roswell.........................  78  51  81  57 /   0   0  20  20
Picacho.........................  72  48  75  52 /   0   0  30  30
Elk.............................  70  45  72  49 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 7 AM MDT this morning for the following
zones... NMZ501-517-518-522-523-528-529.

&&

$$

41


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.