Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 230931
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ENDING A LITTLE BEFORE
DAWN AS IT LOOKS AS OF THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE. GOING FORWARD...THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
BRINGING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT THUS SOME SPOTTY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS. THERE STILL WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EAST AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
THE FAR NORTHWEST EARLY TO MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH NOT TOO MUCH ELSE
ELSEWHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF WILL STILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING
LOWER CHANCES WEST AND NORTHWEST BUT A LITTLE GREATER CHANCES
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ONGOING CURRENTLY SO WILL NEED TO MAKE
THIS A BIT SHORTER THAN USUAL. MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ENDING A LITTLE BEFORE DAWN. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
AS IS FOR NOW. GOING FORWARD...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...BRINGING SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH IT THUS SOME SPOTTY COLD CORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AND SUN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL
LOOKING AT A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
EAST AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BACK TO NW NM...THERE
MAY BE A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS EASING INTO THE FAR NW
EARLY TO MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH NOT TOO MUCH ELSE ELSEWHERE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF WILL AGAIN SEE A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE WITH
TUE AND WED BRINGING LOWER CHANCES WEST AND NORTHWEST BUT A
LITTLE GREATER CHANCES EAST...MUCH MORE SO WED THAN TUE. LATE WED
THRU THU NIGHT WILL AGAIN SEE A DEEPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...THOUGH ECMWF STILL GOING WITH A LESS SHARP TROF AND THUS A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD DISCOURAGE MOISTURE FROM SURGING AS FAR WEST AS THE CASE
WOULD BE FOR THE GFS SCENARIO WITH ITS MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS
THAN THE ECMWF.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS WILL PREVAIL AS
OCCASIONAL STORM SYSTEMS AND SURFACE FRONTS IMPACT NEW MEXICO.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A SHORT
LIVED RIDGE WILL REDUCE RATES TO MOSTLY GOOD TUESDAY. RATES IMPROVE
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.

NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST THIRD AND THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...EXCEPT FOR NEXT TUESDAY WHEN ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN.

WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN LINCOLN TO QUAY
COUNT. LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS AS THEY
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND RACE NE THROUGH
ABOUT 10Z. ROW AND TCC UNDER THE GUN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE STORMS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN
THE EAST INCLUDING LVS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. ONLY HAVE VCSH IN GUP AND FMN AT THIS POINT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  42  63  41 /  20  40  40  20
DULCE...........................  61  37  60  31 /  30  40  60  30
CUBA............................  62  36  61  38 /  10  20  60  20
GALLUP..........................  62  38  62  37 /  10  20  40  20
EL MORRO........................  57  37  58  38 /  10  10  30  20
GRANTS..........................  65  38  63  39 /  10  10  40  10
QUEMADO.........................  61  37  62  38 /  10  10  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  74  39  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  58  32  57  29 /  30  50  70  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  39  61  41 /  20  30  60  30
PECOS...........................  61  39  62  41 /   5   5  30   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  64  33  62  33 /  10  10  60  40
RED RIVER.......................  54  32  53  32 /  20  10  60  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  58  33  56  34 /  20  10  40  50
TAOS............................  63  34  61  35 /  10  10  30  30
MORA............................  62  36  62  38 /  10   5  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  68  39  67  42 /  10  10  40  20
SANTA FE........................  61  40  63  43 /   5   5  30  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  67  41  68  44 /   5   5  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  68  44  68  46 /   0   5  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  71  46  71  49 /   0   5  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  71  47  71  45 /   0   0  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  72  44  71  46 /   0   5  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  71  46  72  47 /   5   5   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  71  44  70  47 /   0   5  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  76  45  76  47 /   0   0  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  66  43  65  45 /   5   5  30  10
TIJERAS.........................  70  43  69  45 /   5   5  30  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  64  41  65  43 /   5   0  20   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  65  40  66  43 /   0   0  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  67  42  67  45 /   5   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  44  72  48 /   5   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  66  46  67  49 /   5   0   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  66  43  68  42 /  10   5  20  20
RATON...........................  72  39  70  40 /  10   5  20  20
SPRINGER........................  71  39  70  40 /  10   5  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  65  38  65  41 /   5   5  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  73  47  76  47 /  30  10   5  20
ROY.............................  69  43  70  45 /  10   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  76  46  78  48 /  10   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  75  45  77  49 /   5   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  49  80  50 /  20  10   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  77  50  78  50 /  20  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  79  50  79  50 /  20  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  78  49  78  50 /  10  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  83  49  84  51 /  10  10   5   0
PICACHO.........................  76  45  77  49 /   5   5   5   0
ELK.............................  70  46  72  48 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ533>538.

&&

$$


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