Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 300532 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. JUST A FEW STRAY CELLS ARE STILL
ONGOING...MOSTLY IN THE CENTRAL PORRTIONS OF THE STATE. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AS STORMS LIKELY DIMINISH BY 30/0900UTC. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO...DRIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME. STORMS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...832 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO DECREASE POPS/QPF AND DROP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE 00Z NAM12
SHOWING VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL QPF. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY DUE TO
DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER HIGH. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CREATE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE COMMONPLACE DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT GRADUALLY LOWER
FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THANKS TO BACK COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A BIT SLOWER TO EVOLVE TODAY BUT
ARE STARTING TO GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF STEAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO. A WEAK EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSH WILL ALSO ACT TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY THE REST
OF TODAY. ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS TO BE SOLID
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE LATEST HRRR HAS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WATCH AREA BY MID
TO LATE EVENING SO TIMING LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH. PERHAPS LESSENING
IMPACTS BY 10 PM. DID BEEF UP POPS ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT AND EXPECTING CONDITIONS AS THE CELLS MOVE SOUTHWARD.

MODELS STILL SHOW DRIER AIR GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH ON TUESDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN
CELLS WILL ALSO BE LESS. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MUCH
LESS. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE VIA A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMES INTO PLAY LATER
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NC AND NE AREAS. THE MODELS ARE REALLY PAINTING
HEAVIER QPF NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF AND HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THAT TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXTENDED HIGHER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD AND SHOULD BE ON THE HOTTER SIDE.

COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON
THE HIGHER SIDE THANKS TO ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL SURGE.
ONCE AGAIN...THE SANGRES SHOULD GET HIT PRETTY HARD AND ALSO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EVEN WESTERN MTNS. BASED ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION...THE FOUR CORNERS SHOULD SEE THE LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. RESIDUAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY. THE STEERING MOTION FOR THE STORMS WILL
BECOME LESS AND LESS DURING THIS PERIOD THUS EXASPERATING FLASH
FLOOD CONDITIONS.

THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL ALSO
LESSEN DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM.

PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN MOISTURE PLUME COULD START TO IMPACT
WESTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
UPPER HIGH POSITION. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH MOVING IT EASTWARD
THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL INFLUENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THOSE TRENDS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING FOR WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK....WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE
MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH POCKETS OF POOR
TO FAIR VENTILATION EACH DAY.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND STEERING FLOW IS A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THUS...THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING RAIN IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL GET A BOOST IN STORM COVERAGE THANKS TO
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND JET STREAK NUDGING INTO THE
PLAINS. AFTER STORMS MOVE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH TONIGHT...DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA.

THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF STORM
COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS A FEW LOCALES IN BETWEEN ON
THE NW PLATEAU. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TOASTY...WITH MOST
AREAS A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A
FOCUS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LATTER BOUNDARY SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPILL WESTWARD...AND
REPLENISH THE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS...THE TREND WILL
BE UPWARD IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL...GENERALLY OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH
AREA....THUS STORM MOTION WILL VARY LITTLE. IN OTHER WORDS...SLOW S
TO SW STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL. GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND DOWNWARD...MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS. THUS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP. STORM COVERAGE MAY
TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND NW NM ON
TUESDAY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. ON
WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY FAVOR CENTRAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO VERY
GOOD VENT RATES ELSEWHERE.  MORE WIDESPREAD POOR AND FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. VENTILATION MAY CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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