Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 250528 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1128 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

Southwest winds aloft with sfc lee trough. Dryline looks to remain
east of the ern NM/wrn TX border before 12Z. A weak intrusion of
mid level moisture may trigger development of virga
northwest/north central NM aft 25/18Z, while occasional sw wnd
gusts to around 35-40kt will be found across nrn and central NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively quiet weather in the short term with the best chances
of precipitation across the north for the end of the week. A dry
line may become active over the weekend and early next week across
the eastern plains. A back door cold front could bring moisture to
the north and east by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate southwest flow and lots of sunshine are boosting high
temperatures into the 70s and 80s, and low to mid 90s across the
southeast plains. Decent winds and very dry air are creating some
critical fire weather conditions across the east this afternoon.
Cumulus clouds are trying to build over the northern mountains
but will have a hard time generating any rain to reach the ground.
So, a quiet night with winds diminishing and lows not far from
normal.

Similar day on tap for Wednesday with a good deal of sunshine and
breezy to windy conditions across the east. We can`t rule out a
dry thunderstorm or two over the Chuska and San Juan mountains.
Highs will be a little cooler than today in the west and a little
warmer in the east.

Storm off the CA coast will finally move inland into southern CA
Wednesday then reach the four corners area Thursday. Not a lot of
moisture to work with but enough instability for some shower and
thunderstorm activity over the northwest. Rain amounts though will
likely be under a tenth of an inch with some of the storms still
dry. The storm will lift northeast Friday with cooler weather and
decent chances of convection north of I 40.

NW flow aloft will switch to the SW over the weekend. Dry line
will try and make a return Saturday evening and hang around into
Sunday...and again Sunday evening into Monday. Best POPS will be
the eastern plains near the TX border.

Another upper level storm will meander toward NM next week while a
back door cold front could combine to bring a decent shot of rain
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED IN THE EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...

An upper level low will eject ENE from the CA coast to the Four
Corners tonight through Wednesday night, then eastward along the
NM/CO border Thursday through Friday. This trajectory will continue
to steer a persistent dry slot over S and E parts of the forecast
area with a stream of stronger winds aloft through Thursday. Surface
winds will be strongest across the east, where several hours of
single digit humidities will combine with above normal temperatures
and strong instability to make critical fire weather conditions
likely each day through Thursday. In the latest forecast package we
strengthened wind speeds and raised temperatures for Thursday, so a
Fire Weather Watch is now in effect for that day.  We also upgraded
to a Red Flag Warning on Wednesday. Localized critical fire weather
conditions will also develop each day through Thursday from the east
slopes of the west central highlands, eastward across the lower Rio
Grande valley, and northeastward across the Sandia/Manzano and
Gallinas mountains...but these are too localized for a fire weather
headline at this time.

As the upper low passes mainly to our north, temperatures will trend
downward today and Thursday.  Winds will shift out of the NW and
weaken some Friday. Temperatures will also cool below normal in the
east on Friday, and Haines values will moderate, reducing the fire
weather threat. There will be a chance for mainly dry showers and
thunderstorms across NW areas starting Wednesday, which will spread
to much of the north and west Thursday.  Wrap around moisture from
the exiting upper low will stream over northern areas Friday, and a
trailing shortwave trough will cross northeast areas with a chance
of wetter variety showers and storms mainly from the northern
mountains eastward. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-108.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for the following zones... NMZ104-108.

&&

$$



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