Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 291756 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1156 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NM UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION...A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN NM AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ATTM.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NC/NE NM THRU THE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL POPCORN-LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NM AS WELL. MVFR/IFR IMPACTS SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT WILL STILL GENERALLY FAVOR NC/NE NM.
MEANWHILE...DRY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...INCLUDING KROW...THIS AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...523 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.UPDATE...
AFTER SEEING THE GREATER THAN EXPECTED BLOSSOMING OF PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL NM AND WITH THAT WORKING UP TOWARD THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...DECIDED TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS THERE ENOUGH TO QUALIFY
THE HIGHEST ELEVATION AND ALSO EAST SLOPES ZONES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED ENDING THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY MUCH SOONER THAN IS CURRENTLY THE CASE AS THERE WILL
LIKELY EVEN BE SOME MELTING OCCUR BELOW ROUGHLY 9500 OR EVEN 10000
FEET IN BETWEEN THE MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY LATE MORN
OR EARLY AFTN...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT RECONSIDER THAT POTENTIAL.
WINTER WX PRODUCT AND OTHER NEEDED PRODUCT UPDATES TO BE ISSUED
ASAP.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A RELATIVELY BRIEF BREAK MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
PRETTY STRONG RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THEN OVER NEW MEXICO...ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ONE STORM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...A FEW STORMS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTH AND FAR EAST
NEW MEXICO...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY...INCREASING RAIN AND AGAIN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SATURDAY AND STRETCHING INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. A THIRD STORM IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROBABLY THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE REALIZED FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MONDAY STORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO MUCH WEATHER FCST GRIDS ACTION NEEDED THAT DETAILS NEED TO
BE MINIMIZED FOR TIME DEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS. UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS HAS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SSE FROM IT AND THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. IT IS HELPING GENERATE MORE RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NM THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE PRECIP COVERAGE
RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENE
TODAY...CONTINUING WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT AMTS OF PRECIP...
ESPEC FAVORING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON EAST. ACROSS THE FAR
EAST...HUGGING UP RIGHT ALONG THE TX LINE A FEW STRONG STORMS
STILL POSS TIL MID OR LATE MORN. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MADE A LATE EVE RUN FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WILL
ERODE SOME BUT NE QUARTER OF NM MAY WELL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF IT AND SO LOWERED TEMPS THERE SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING LARGELY AS IS.

SECOND STORM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF TODAYS SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING SAT AFTN MAINLY ACROSS NW NM AND
NORTHERN MTNS...THEN INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH HALF OF NM
SAT NIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUN THROUGH MON.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH SNOW LVL AS LOW OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
LOWER THAN CURRENT SYSTEM. HIGHLIGHTS MIGHT EVEN NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED BY THE NEXT SHIFT OR THE NEXT ONE THEREAFTER. A
STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE S AND W ACROSS THE
ERN PLAINS SAT AND ROAR THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE
CNTRL MTS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. THE BEST QPF WITH THIS
SECOND STORM SHOULD BE OVER THE E AND N.

DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR TUE THROUGH THU...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST HALF MAINLY TUE AND WED...THEN ANOTHER
STORM COULD IMPACT NM NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS /ZONE 108/ AND
EVEN HERE THE ALIGNMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
AND MODERATE/HIGH HAINES WILL BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PRECLUDING A
RED FLAG WARNING. FINE FUELS ALSO TENDING MORE UNRECEPTIVE.

OTHERWISE... AN ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER MUCH ANTICIPATED BOUTS OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD ON THE PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW TRACKS INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA.  THIS WILL SET UP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR VERY
WINDY/HIGH IMPACT IF NOT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EAST WINDS FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY CORRIDOR...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS ALSO FOR PLACES LIKE
TAOS.

PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION TODAY. ELSEHWERE...
EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED.  GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS/VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.   VENTILATION WILL THEN TREND SHARPLY DOWNWARD IN
THE EAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY.   KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-527.

&&

$$


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