000
FXUS65 KABQ 230537
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

STRONGER BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 25 TO 30 KT COMMON BY 23/2100UTC. AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF THE STATE...EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE. IN THIS NORTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE STATE...WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HEIGHT...COMBINING WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS. HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE A
CONCERN AS WOULD LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN ANY DOWNPOURS.
NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAINFALL OR VIRGA
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

52

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013...
INTERESTING WEATHER COMING UP FOR NEW MEXICO WITH VERY DRY WEATHER
IN THE WEST WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE EAST WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN BETWEEN...THERE COULD BE A FEW MOSTLY DRY TSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD BRINGING NM A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
VERY WARM DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT SLIPS INTO
NE NM THU. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE FAR NE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE EAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE PM...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THU EVENING. INCLUDED MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE PM AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH SOME DRY LIGHTNING. W OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE VERY DRY AND WARM WITH ENOUGH WIND FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

FRI COULD END UP BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESSED UP AGAINST THE E SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
PLAINS AND SCATTERED FARTHER E TO THE TX BORDER. AGAIN INCLUDED
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT HELD OFF ON SEVERE WEATHER WORDING
FOR NOW. CONTINUED DRY AND WARM IN THE W. MENTIONED SOME DRY STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE POPS.

DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONVECTION TO BEGIN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ENOUGH TO BRING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SAT MAY BE JUST ABOUT AS
ACTIVE AS FRI ALTHOUGH MORE DRY STORMS COULD BE NOTED OVER THE W
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SUN SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND
WITH MON LOOKING COMPLETELY DRY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SWING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SW U.S. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CHJ

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY WITH VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR
WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
RH VALUES AND A COUPLE HOURS WITH SUPER HAINES SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
DROPPED ZONES 101 AND 103 FROM THE WATCH AS WINDS TRENDED DOWN BELOW
THRESHOLDS AND CRITICAL FIRE AREAS WERE MORE LOCALIZED. HOWEVER...A
FEW HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN EACH AREA.

SPOTTY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON GOING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON. CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD UP OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH ONLY A BRIEF GUSTY
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND POOR RH RECOVERIES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
AND INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR TO GOOD RH RECOVERIES
WILL RESULT FROM THIS MOISTURE SURGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND
LEAD TO FAIR TO GOOD RH RECOVERIES.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO...AS RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS NEAR LAS VEGAS...AND LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED WARNED AREAS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST
WILL PREVENT A PLUMMET OF DEWPOINTS EAST AS A STRONG MIDLEVEL DRY
SLOT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE LATER IN THE DAY AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AS WETTING RAIN WILL BE UNLIKELY.
VENT RATES AND HAINES VALUES NEAR 6 IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE.

A FEW LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MAKES A SECOND SURGE INTO
NORTHEAST NM. FRIDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A MORE WELL DEFINED
DRY LINE WILL FORM. DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE MINIMAL WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CREATING A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CENTRAL AND WEST. AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUPER
HAINES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED AS WELL. VENT RATES
REMAIN EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS SLOWING ITS
EVENTUAL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
FAIRLY UNCHANGED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE DRY LINE WILL
FORM FURTHER EAST EACH DAY AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT RH VALUES AND MIXING
HEIGHTS TO TREND DOWNWARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POOR RH
RECOVERIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE. THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE TROUGH TO BE
DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THUS NOT PASSING THE
STATE TILL MID WEEK. 24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ105.

&&

$$