Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 230542 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Isolated -shra/tsra lingering over north central and northwest NM
w/ gusty outflow winds to 35 kt and brief rain. KSAF and KFMN to
be impacted as late as 08Z. Mid level clouds near 120 and a few
sprinkles will clear thru sunrise. Saturday will feature a larger
crop of -shra/tsra aft 20Z near the high terrain, spreading to
valley locales and the northeast plains thru 00Z. Direct hits
will result in brief MVFR vsbys from lcl heavy rain w/ gusty winds
near 35 kt. Greatest coverage expected as outflows collide over
northern and central NM during the evening.


High pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will
be directly over New Mexico through Saturday with above normal
temperatures persisting, especially across the eastern plains
where highs will rise to near daily record values. Chances for
showers and storms will trend up Sunday into early next week as
high pressure recenters over the Great Basin and moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico moves north into the state. High temperatures will
be closer to normal next week thanks to added clouds and potential
rain cooling.


The drying continues today with the upper high centered directly
overhead. 24hr surface dewpoint change values were an average -2
across the area at 2PM and today`s crop of storms is down compared
to yesterday`s in terms of both lightning activity and wetting
rain footprint. Saturday is looking similar overall, although
pressure heights are forecast to decrease roughly 2dam at 500mb as
the upper high recenters near the four corners. Highs on Saturday
across the eastern plains will be near daily record values once

The 12z NAM and GFS disagree on the position of the upper high on
Sunday, although both show an uptick in convection with the NAM
more bullish. A backdoor front, likely reinforced by convective
outflow, is forecast to progress into the northeast Sunday night
and should lead to soaking rains with storms for locales north of
I-40 and along/east of the Sangres. By 12z Monday, both the GFS
and NAM show the KABQ PWAT above 1", with the NAM closer to 1.20".
This higher, above normal PWAT atmosphere is forecast to persist
through the middle of next week as Gulf moisture advects northwest
across the area with the upper high recentering over the Great
Basin. So, expect an active thunderstorm period between Monday and
at least mid week with highs closer to normal for a change.



High pressure has re-established itself over NM. This has shoved the
deepest subtropical moisture a bit farther west, moving more into
AZ, although sufficient moisture and instability remain present for
isolated to scattered storms. Overall the footprint of wetting
precipitation is fairly small with storms, and storm outflows will
remain the dominant wind concern.

A healthy rebound of humidity is expected tonight and into Saturday
morning with good to excellent recoveries. Some drying is then
forecast into the daytime Saturday with lower dewpoints leading to
lower minimum daytime humidity. The heat will remain on in the
plains with triple digit temperatures for most locales and near
record highs. Storms will again initiate off of the higher terrain,
but for the most part will avoid the plains in the east Saturday.
The exception will be in the far northeast where a weak easterly
wind shift could trigger a few cells.

On Sunday, high pressure will stay on top of NM. The aforementioned
wind shift will have retreated some to the north in the morning, but
could sneak back into northeastern NM Sunday evening as a weak
frontal boundary. A synoptic east southeast wind will set up over
many remaining areas of NM, and this could produce some upslope flow
that would assist storm development on east faces of the central
mountain chain and to a lesser extent the eastern high plains.

The dome of high pressure then exhibits some wobbly motion next
week, but essentially orbits close to NM with increased subtropical
moisture wrapping into the state. This will increase rain chances
Monday and Tuesday with the high setting up northwest of the Four
Corners by mid week. Storms will trend wetter during this period
with more likelihood of wetting precipitation and less threat of new
lightning ignitions.






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