Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 220004 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
604 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

SCT to ISOLD showers and thunderstorms will continue to favor the
central mountain chain eastward this evening as an upper level
disturbance gradually shifts eastward across the NE quarter of NM.
After midnight a few trusted mesoscale models are showing ISOLD
showers on the back side of the upper low pressure circulation
tracking southward from the northern mountains into central parts of
the state, possibly impacting SAF, AEG and ABQ. A back door cold
front will push southward into the NE plains before sunrise Tuesday
morning, then SWWD against the E slopes of the central mountain
chain by 18Z. Moist upslope flow will get showers and thunderstorms
going across the N mountains, NE and E central areas with some MVFR
conditions during the afternoon. SCT to ISOLD showers and
thunderstorms should also develop farther to the south and west up
to the continental divide, with spottier activity possible in the
mountains west of there.



.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017...
An upper level disturbance will move over north central and northeast
New Mexico this evening and focus precipitation there overnight. The
best chances for storms on Tuesday will be across eastern portions of
the state, where a backdoor cold front will push in and enhance
activity. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening, mainly across the Northeast Plains. The front will continue
southwest through the area Tuesday night and recharge moisture,
leading to enhanced rounds of storms on Wednesday and Thursday. High
pressure will strengthen over the region going into the weekend,
allowing daytime temperatures to trend up slightly and daily rounds
of storms to trend down some.


Compact upper low circulation still intact and moving northeast
across north central New Mexico per the latest water vapor satellite
imagery. This feature may enhance storms across northeast New Mexico
later this evening, but in the meantime there is plenty of surface
based instability to allow for an increase in intensity/coverage as
storms move into the Eastern Plains. Latest LAPS is showing sbCAPE
values in excess of 3000 J/Kg across portions of the Eastern Plains,
which is believable given current surface dewpoint temps in the 60s
out there.

A backdoor front will follow behind the departing trough Tuesday and
push into the Northeast/East Central Plains, then continue on to the
south and west overnight. Breezy east canyon/gap winds are forecast
with the front Tuesday night in the Middle Rio Grande Valley and
Upper Tularosa Valley. The front will recharge moisture across the
area and act as a focus for storm development Tue/Wed. Some storms
that develop along/near the boundary late Tuesday may be strong and
produce locally heavy rainfall. The threat for locally heavy rainfall
will continue into Wednesday, but be confined mainly to the
mountains. A shortwave trough will move over on Thursday and enhance
storms, with a continued threat for locally heavy rainfall. The
Eastern Plains may get back into the action Thursday night as the
shortwave trough ejects east out of the Southern Rockies.

The 12z medium range model solutions all show the upper high
transitioning from northern Mexico to over the Great Basin from
Friday through Sunday. Daily rounds of storms will continue during
this transition, but storms may trend down a bit going into Sunday
given no additional moisture input. Temperatures will likely trend up
Friday through Sunday, especially west, but this trend may be
underplayed in our current forecast.



Upper level sub-tropical low pinwheeling over northwest New Mexico
this afternoon. This feature will keep showers and isolated storms
going over northern and eastern New Mexico until several hours after
sunset. Showers and storms will get going earlier than usual across
northern NM Tuesday as a backdoor front moves in during the morning
hours. Numerous showers and storms will develop over northern and
eastern areas of the state Tuesday afternoon and evening. A few
showers and storms could become severe as winds aloft strengthen.
The backdoor front will push west of the central mountain chain just
before sunset Tuesday, setting off a few showers and storms in the
mid and lower RGV and northwest highlands during the evening hours.
Backdoor front pushes westward to or just west of the Continental
Divide Wednesday morning. Strengthening Four Corners high overhead
and drier air aloft from the northwest, however, keeps afternoon and
evening convection to isolated.

As another upper level wave/low moves up from northwest Mexico
Thursday, an uptick in showers and storms remains on track. Dry air
aloft begins to work into the northwest third of the state Friday,
limiting storm chances there. Elsewhere, scattered showers and
storms develop and drift slowly southward. Weather prediction models
now keep low level moisture in place across central and eastern NM
Saturday, drying things out Sunday and Monday.

Ventilation rates in the lower elevation remain poor to fair through
most of the work week with good to very good rates above about 7000
feet elevation.





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