Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 301803 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE BETWEEN
06Z AND 15Z SUNDAY...

SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS...AND ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF THE EAST THROUGH 21Z. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

A POWERFUL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL COMBINE WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGETOP LEVELS TO PRODUCE
HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
WITH HIGH...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS AT KABQ. STRONG WINDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1128 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL COME
TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WILL CONSIDER ADDING PARTS OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST/FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH NEVADA WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG EAST WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE-TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
VERY STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
LINGERS AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS ONE CLOSED LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER ONE IS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN GREAT BASIN LOW WILL
TRACK SEWD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ BY AROUND SUNSET...THEN LIFT NEWD TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY NOON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A
VERY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PLOW SOUTH AND SWWD THROUGH THE
ERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
MIDDLE RGV TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR ABQ INDICATING SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE. LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL (700MB) SELY
BUT THE LOCALLY RUN 00Z 1KM WRF-ARW SHOWS MORE OF AN ELY
COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MANZANOS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SPILL OVER TYPE EVENT WITH HIGH WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM
SANDIA HEIGHTS SOUTHWARD ALONG AND NEAR TRAMWAY AND JUAN TABO TO
FOUR HILLS AND THE SE HEIGHTS OF ABQ. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HIGH
EAST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF TIJERAS CANYON ALONG AND NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL AVE. STRONG EAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY RESULT IN STRONG EAST WINDS BUT PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. GFS HITTING FAR NW
NM RELATIVELY HARD WITH PRECIPITATION (LARGE AREA OF A HALF INCH
OR GREATER) AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHERE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS. BEST SHOT FOR RAIN IN THE ABQ METRO IS THIS EVENING AS
THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN.

STRONG EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MID RGV AND ABQ
METRO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW FILLS AND SHEARS APART LATE-
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT THE STALLED BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS
WEST- CENTRAL AND NW NM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A DEPARTING WLY JET
TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN
RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING E-SEWD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE DOWN DAY OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. 00Z GFS NOW BACKS THE FLOW
ALOFT ENOUGH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW TO
BRING THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT KEEPS THE DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY REMAINS LOW BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS
INCREASING. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE MODEST WARMING TODAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK WARMING AND DRYING AHEAD
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE
THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE DAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OVER ARIZONA CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT RACES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT STRONGER AND
FASTER THAN CURRENT RUNS AND GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHT WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS. STILL NOT SURE IF THIS WILL TOP THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY...IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE
...AND WILL INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
MAGNITUDES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WARM
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN DECREASE.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH EXPANDED
COVERAGE TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON FRIDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES EAST ON
MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-527.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$



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