Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 080538 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1038 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Aviation impacts to focus over eastern NM tonight as low clouds
& patchy -FZDZ develop behind an arctic cold front. IFR cigs &
vsbys most likely at KLVS where easterly upslope component exists.
KTCC/KROW already reporting MVFR cigs and this will continue thru
the morning. Gap winds developing in the Rio Grande Valley with
gusts up to 30kt at KABQ overnight. Clouds to erode very slowly
Thursday as drier westerly flow moves into NM.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...622 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016...
.UPDATE...
Added areas of light freezing drizzle to the forecast for east
central and southeast areas late tonight into Thursday morning
based on recent model forecast soundings. Also added some patchy
freezing fog to the forecast around Las Vegas late tonight.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue to move south through central
New Mexico overnight. Strong surface high pressure across eastern
Colorado will result in winds becoming northeast and easterly
overnight along with low clouds and areas of flurries or light
snow from the east slopes of the central mountains to the Texas
line. Cold conditions will continue Thursday before a warming
trend gets underway Friday and Saturday. A weak storm system in
northwest flow aloft will return the chances for snow to northwest
and north-central New Mexico late Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Modified Arctic surface cold front currently near a Gallup to ABQ
to Clovis line. As strong west winds near mountain top level shift
south into southern NM this evening, the cold air to the
northeast with surge swwd. NAM12 a bit more gung ho with shallow
upglide over the top of the cold dome late tonight and Thursday
morning for better chances for areas of flurries or light snow
east of the central mountain chain. Still expecting areas of ice
accretion/riming where the cloud bases intersect the terrain from
the east slopes of the Sangres, Sandia, Manzano and south-central
mountains. Locales in the central highlands including Clines
Corners and Vaughn/Encino are also susceptible to some light
icing. Models continue idea of developing a return flow by
Thursday afternoon, helping to modify temps across western NM a
bit faster than previous runs. The southerly winds associated with
the return flow will likely keep Thursday night temps from
plummeting.

Warm up remains on track for Friday and Saturday. ECMWF has
trended slightly farther southwestward with a 125kt nwly jet and
associated upper level short-wave trough for Saturday night and
Sunday. Increased precipitation (mainly in the form of snow)
chances across the northwest third of the state late Sat night
and Sun, especially mountains. Operational GFS has trended in the
same direction but not to the extent of the better skilled ECMWF.

All global models agree that a dry northwest flow aloft will
develop over NM early next week. Both ECMWF and GFS hinting at a
weak trough toward the end of the week as the flow aloft finally
buckles again across the eastern Pacific. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very cold airmass is moving into New Mexico, with anomalously cold
temperatures forecast across eastern portions of the state.
Overnight lows will be 10-15 degrees below normal across east
central and northeast New Mexico, with daytime highs on Thursday 20-
25 degrees below normal across the same area. Departures from normal
will be less negative across western New Mexico. With the colder air
comes poor vent rates, which look to hang around through Friday
before showing some improvement over the weekend given some warming
with temperatures trending above normal. The overall synoptic
weather pattern will remain fairly zonal through the forecast
period, with the core of the jet stream positioned north of New
Mexico. A brief intrusion on Sunday will bring a reinforcing cold
front and a round of snow to the northern higher terrain.

A strong backdoor cold front looks to impact mainly the eastern
plains with a modified arctic airmass toward the middle of next
week, while much of central and western New Mexico continue with
above to well above normal temperatures. Looking at the 12z medium
range model solutions through 240hrs offers little, if any, hope for
wetting precipitation. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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