Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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504
FXUS65 KABQ 240540 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Westward-moving cold front approaching the Continental Divide early
this morning with locally strong/gusty and persistent easterly gap
winds along the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. Gusts around
40kts expected at KABQ. Gap winds will gradually diminish during the
13Z- 15Z time frame. Meanwhile, solid upslope conditions in place
along/east of the central mountain chain yielding widespread MVFR
cigs to include KLVS, KTCC and KROW. CIGS to gradually rise after
15Z but low clouds will be slow to erode until after 18Z, perhaps
later. Daytime heating amidist an increasingly moist and unstable air
mass will support isolated to scattered TSRA from the Continental
Divide toward Rio Grande Valley Saturday PM, possibly impacting
KAEG, KABQ and KSAF going into the evening hours. KJ

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front has pushed through the eastern plains today, which
dropped the temperatures considerably. The front will push through
the gaps of the central mountain chain late this afternoon and
evening. Strong and gusty winds are expected below canyons in the Rio
Grande Valley. The front will continue to race westward overnight.
Moisture behind the front will set the stage for an active weekend
with showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be strong or severe
with hail and gusty winds. The active weather will continue into
Monday, then drier air should arrive for mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The back door cold front has backed up to the central mountain chain
this afternoon, and soon, will push through the gaps and into the
Rio Grande Valley. Looks like the easterly winds will initially be
lighter, but will ramp up quickly this evening and persist into the
overnight. Considered moving up the Wind Advisory to start at 4pm or
so, but the strongest winds should be after 6pm, so will leave as
is. The front will quickly shift westward, nearing the AZ border
around midnight. A few storms are developing along the central
mountain chain this afternoon, but so far are struggling to become
very strong. HRRR indicates they won`t make it too far off the high
terrain this evening.

Thanks to the front, the streak of heat advisories should come to an
end. Dewpoints behind the front have increased into the upper 40s
and 50s behind the front and this moisture, though perhaps not as
rich, should make it across much of western NM tonight. The moisture
will mix out on Saturday across far west central and northwest NM,
but elsewhere, will set the stage for a much more active
thunderstorm day. Areas between the ContDvd and the central mountain
chain look to be favored during the daytime period, with a few
strong or severe storms possible. Steering flow may take the storms
across the plains Saturday night. Stormy weather will continue into
Sunday and Monday. Both days look quite active with the potential
for strong to severe storms. Fortunately though, the cloud cover and
precipitation will keep it cooler, especially across the plains.
Below normal temperatures are expected for areas along and east of
the RGV. Still warm across the west, but only 3 to 7 degrees above
normal, as opposed to 8 to 14 like the last few days.

Stronger westerlies look to return Tuesday and Wednesday across
northern NM with a corresponding dry slot moving across the area.
This dry air should mix down and subsequently start to limit
thunderstorm chances, first across the north, and with time across
the south.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The backdoor front raced south and west across the eastern plains
and seeped into the Rio Grande Valley overnight and this morning.
The low level moisture has mixed out of the RGV for the most part
this afternoon, but the east/southeast gap winds will return later
this afternoon and will be roaring after 6pm in ABQ. Gusts up to 50
and maybe 55 mph between 7pm and 3am through and below the canyons,
especially Tijeras and Bear Canyons. Despite the sharp increase in
low level moisture convection will be pretty limited this evening
and overnight, pretty much confined to the east slopes of the
central mountains and eastern highlands, and across Chaves County.
RH recoveries will be be much better tonight, fair to good in the
west and excellent in the east. The front will reach the Continental
Divide early Saturday morning and probably spill west to the AZ
border.

This will produce an active weekend with widespread showers and
thunderstorms and mostly below normal high temperatures. Mixing
heights will lower and vent rates will crater in the east this
weekend but not so much in the west.

Pretty much status quo for Monday then a drying and warming trend
still looks to take place for the rest of next week, with less
coverage of storms Tuesday and Wednesday, and dry Thursday and
Friday. A couple of back door cold fronts next weekend could lead
to a return of more moisture and cooler temperatures.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 AM MDT Saturday for the following zones...
NMZ519.

&&

$$



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