Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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869
FXUS65 KABQ 232314 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
514 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Dry northwest flow aloft with occasional sct cirrus. A cold front
which moved through ern NM will push up against the central mt chain
then into portions of the RGV between 02-04Z with east winds gusting
to around 30kt below canyons. Meager moisture in upslope flow along
the east slopes of the central mt chain may result in lcl terrain
obscuration from the KRTN-KCQC and K0E0 areas in cigs around 025-035
from 03Z-11Z. Not anticipating the lower cigs will bleed into the
KSAF vcnty at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
The temperature roller coaster will continue this week. A back door
front sliding down the plains today will push westward tonight. All
areas should be cooler on Tuesday, though central and western areas
will be near normal. Temperatures will warm up quickly on Wednesday,
particularly across the plains, as a weak disturbance crosses the
state and surface lee side troughing develops. Gusty west to
southwest winds are expected across the plains. A major cool down is
expected for the end of the week as a strong front plows through the
plains Thursday and Thursday night. High temperatures on Friday will
struggle to reach 50 degrees east of the central mountain chain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is pushing through the plains this afternoon, but
despite the front, temperatures are still as warm or slightly warmer
than yesterday. The front should push through the gaps of the
central mountain chain allowing for a breezy east canyon wind to
develop in the Albuquerque metro area tonight. Cold air advection
will continue overnight as the surface high settles into the eastern
plains. As a result, Tuesday`s high temperatures will be 5 to 15
degrees cooler areawide.

On Wednesday, a weak disturbance will cross the state which will
induce a lee side trough over Colorado and New Mexico. Breezy to
windy southwest winds will develop across the northeast and east
central plains, and the downslope flow will quickly warm up the
plains around 10 to 15 degrees above Tuesday`s readings. Winds will
be capable of gusting around 35 to 40 mph.

The warm up will be followed by a quick cool down on Thursday into
Friday. A trough will dive southward out of Canada and the trough
axis will slide over NM on Thursday and Thursday night. An
associated cold front will back into the plains starting early
Thursday, but the much colder air will arrive Thursday afternoon and
overnight. The front will push westward through the gaps of the
central mountain chain Thursday night, and another breezy east wind
is expected in the Rio Grande Valley. Thus, by Friday, all areas
will be cooler. However, western areas will be near normal, and
areas across the plains will be around 20 degrees below normal.  The
system will also bring some moisture with it, and light snow will be
possible across the Sangre de Cristo Mtns and portions of northeast
NM.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry cold front moving quickly southwest across eastern NM will
move through gaps in the central mountain chain. Temperatures will
trend 5-10 degrees cooler behind the front and min RH values up 10
to 20% from today. Light winds behind this front will also lead to
widespread poor ventilation Tuesday.

Ridge top winds will begin increasing Tuesday night as stronger
west/northwest flow aloft approaches from the Four Corners. A lee
trough will deepen over southeastern Colorado Wednesday and force
breezy southwest winds over eastern NM. This will help ventilation
improve into the fair to good category along and east of the central
mt chain. Temps will trend back above normal with downslope flow and
low humidity. Thursday will be a transition day ahead of a strong
cold front approaching from the Front Range. Ventilation will be
good most areas.

Thursday night will begin a period of much colder weather through
the weekend. Windy conditions will develop over eastern NM behind
the front Thursday then shift into the Rio Grande Valley Thursday
night. A brief period of snow showers is possible along the Colorado
border however any accums are expected to be very light at this
time. Temperatures will trend below normal Friday across the entire
area. Ventilation will deteriorate back to poor. Flow aloft will
remain northwest through the weekend with lowering humidity, clear
skies, strong overnight inversions, and slowing warming temps.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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