Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 230537 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1137 PM MDT SAT OCT 22 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR. Southwest flow aloft. Some mid to high level moisture
seeping newd over the state. Sfc low over se CO to shift swd and
into east central NM by 23/21Z.
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT SAT OCT 22 2016...
Well above normal temperatures prevail this afternoon with highs
approaching, and in some cases exceeding, daily records across
the east central and northeast plains. Clouds will begin to
increase across west central and southwest New Mexico Sunday, but
not enough to prevent highs from soaring well above normal once
again. Moisture will increase from west to east across the state
Monday and result in increased cloud cover and chances for
precipitation, favoring mainly the western and northern mountains
as a disturbance passes over Monday night. A few lingering showers
are possible across northern New Mexico Tuesday as the disturbance
exits to the east. High pressure will strengthen over the state
mid to late week and result in a renewed warming trend with well
above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions prevailing.
Another unusually warm afternoon with lee side troughing and
downslope winds playing a role across east central and northeast
portions of the state where highs are exceeding daily records at a
few locales. Moisture is beginning a slow increase across western
portions of the state and is resulting in cumulus clouds. Moisture
will continue to increase across western New Mexico Sunday and may
result in some late day virga across the western higher terrain.
Otherwise, more well above normal temperatures forecast Sunday
with highs approaching record values in the Rio Grande Valley and
across portions of the east central plains. Sunday`s daily record
high at the ABQ Sunport is 80 and we`re forecasting to tie it.
Moisture advection will ramp-up Monday ahead of an approaching,
but dampening, upper level trough. PWATs will surge to well above
normal across central and western New Mexico but forcing will be
weak and a top-down moistening process will take place, both of
which will limit precipitation amounts significantly. Best chances
for wetting (>= 0.10") precipitation will be across the western
and northern high terrain Monday night. Most lower elevation
locales across central and northwest New Mexico will see either no
precipitation or amounts ranging from a trace to several
hundredths of an inch. The trough will pass by late Monday night
into Tuesday morning and a few showers may linger through the day,
with highs trending down several degrees.
A large and dominant upper high will build up over the region
Wednesday and Thursday, leading to a renewed warming and drying
trend which will send temperatures well above normal going into
next weekend with no shot at precipitation in sight.
Dry southwest flow aloft will continue through Sunday before
subtropical moisture increases from the southwest during late-day
Monday into Tuesday morning. A backdoor boundary will move into
northeast NM during the day Sunday, cooling temperatures between 5
and 10 degrees F below today`s record levels but still remaining
well above average. Morning model runs have slowed the timing of the
moisture and showers/storms, bringing things through Monday night
and Tuesday morning. Models continue to favor the northwest third of
the state Monday night through Tuesday morning. Precipitable water
increases across this same area to around 0.8", likely resulting in
some locally heavy rainfall. Clouds and a few light showers linger
across the north Tuesday afternoon.
The weather pattern repeats itself and an upper level high builds up
from the southwest Wednesday. The high shifts slightly east
Thursday, allowing for a weak lee trough and southerly breezes. Main
difference between last week and next is dewpoint temperatures.
Models agree that a low level easterly flow will transport higher
dewpoint temperatures in Wednesday, and then a southerly surface
flow will keep them in place Thursday and Friday. GFS and ECMWF back
to keeping upper troughs north of the state through at least next
Ventilation rates range mainly from the fair to good range Sunday,
increase mainly into the very good to excellent range Monday and
Tuesday and then drop significantly areawide Wednesday.