Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 310534 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016


Batches of scattered SHRA/TSRA continue across portions of
central New Mexico around the midnight hour. Storms are generally
drifting slowly to the east southeast with a few cells still
capable of producing hefty downpours, small hail, and gusty
downburst winds. Any reductions to ceilings/visibility will be
brief-lived in any passing SHRA/TSRA. The coverage of storms will
trend down between 31/0800-31/1000UTC. Otherwise skies will
generally clear in the early morning hours Sunday, before slowly
giving way to another active day of SHRA/TSRA Sunday afternoon and



A very active week is on tap as monsoonal moisture streams
northward and finally gives New Mexico a real possibility of
widespread showers and thunderstorms for several consecutive days.
Heavy rainfall will be a possible with any storm for the next
week, and this may lead to flash flooding. Storms will move little
early in the week which will exacerbate the threat for heavy
rainfall. Best storm chances will be across western and central
New Mexico, with less precipitation expected across the eastern


A bit slower start for today`s crop of showers and thunderstorms
likely owing to an inversion just above 500 mb on the 12Z ABQ
sounding. That said, storms are finally getting started and most
storms are exhibiting little to no movement. This combined with
PWATs near or just above normal for the end of July, will yield the
potential for locally heavy rain through the evening. Additionally,
like the last few days, LAPS analysis showing a fair amount of
instability across the northeast.  Storms that move off the Sangres
and into the plains will have the potential to become strong or
briefly severe, assuming the inversion can mix out.  Interestingly,
only the HRRR and the local WRF suggest storms moving well south
across the eastern plains tonight, while they are notably absent on
the NAM and GFS. Based on previous nights, this certainly seems
plausible, and have inched PoPs upward tonight across the east as a

The upper high will continue to weaken tonight as it elongates over
the southern states. Still looks like there may be two weak high
centers by Sunday afternoon - one over western AZ and another just
east of, or over, eastern NM.  The weakness in the high over western
NM, aided by an easterly wave over the Gulf of California, should
allow traditional monsoon moisture to begin streaming northward on
Sunday. These higher PWATs should reach at least the southwest mtns
by Sunday, increasing the threat for heavy rainfall. Moisture will
continue to stream northward across much of central and western NM
Monday through the end of the week. In fact, the easterly wave looks
to move up into AZ as a weak low/inverted trough by mid week, which
could really help to bring up substantial moisture into at least
western NM. Thus, daily rounds of numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected this week. Weak
disturbances moving up from Mexico, generally not handled well by
the models until the day of, may help boost thunderstorm activity
further. Slow storm motions will persist through at least Tuesday
before starting to increase. These slow storm motions combined with
the potential for storms to produce 2"/hr rainfall rates will
increase the threat for flash flooding. As we getting further into
the week, we will also be increasingly concerned about saturated
soils. Flash flood watches will not be out of the question.
Certainly looks like the real monsoon is arriving!



Another fairly active afternoon with thunderstorm coverage ramping
up, although the wetting rain footprint has been small so far. Look
for coverage to continue to increase with convection sustained well
into the evening hours. Humidity recovery will be fair to good
northwest and Rio Grande Valley, but will be good to excellent

The trend is a wetting one going forward into next week as the 2016
North American Monsoon looks to kick into full gear. PWATs are
forecast to trend up to well above normal over the next couple of
days, then stay there through at least Friday of next week. The
upper high is forecast to split, with the high center to the east
becoming the dominant feature as a weak west coast trough develops
around mid week. This setup will open the door for monsoon moisture
to flow north into the Desert Southwest and New Mexico from mid to
late week, bringing fairly typical early August weather. This
wetting trend will bring higher dewpoint temperatures, an increasing
wetting rain footprint and widespread good to excellent humidity
recovery. Soaking rains are likely, especially Wednesday and
Thursday across central and western New Mexico.





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