000
FXUS65 KABQ 232105
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FINALLY SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND HOPEFULLY DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE WEST WILL REMAIN
DRY AND VERY WARM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

BACK DOOR FRONT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH CLOVIS AND MELROSE AND WEST TO
LAS VEGAS AND CLINES CORNERS BUT HAS STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND HAS
MOVED BACK EAST OF LVS AND CQC WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING AGAIN. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...IN THE 40S...ARE HUGGING THE NM...TX BORDER AND
NE NM. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA AND MENTION POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER PER SPC GUIDANCE. DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
CWA CURRENTLY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE EAST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BACK TO THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE A SEEPAGE OF EAST CANYON
WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD MIX OUT BY FRIDAY PM BUT DECIDED TO PUT A FEW DRY STORMS IN
FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS...PARTLY BASED ON SPC LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.
ALSO UNSTABLE EVEN OVER THE WEST FRIDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. BEST
POPS FRIDAY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STORMS NEAR THE TX BORDER. CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY IN THE WEST...ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE SPRINKLES IN THE JEMEZ.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTION...BOTH IN COVERAGE AND PERHAPS INTENSITY. WILL
ONLY CARRY ISOLATED POPS EVEN NEAR THE TX BORDER. A BIT STRONGER
AND MORE WEST FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A DRYING TREND
FOR THE EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NEAR
THE TX BORDER AND A DRY AND VERY WARM FORECAST AREA WIDE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NM TUESDAY AND
CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN SOME COOLING IN THE NW
AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO HANG OUT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING IN WESTERN NM ALONG THE AZ BORDER WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING
INTO THE 30`S AND MIN RH VALUES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. GUSTY
WINDS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DRYLINE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE BY EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE MOVING EVEN FARTHER WEST BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN RH VALUES FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. THIS
WESTWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL CREATE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE CENTRAL AND WEST
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE POOR. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AT EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE DAY. VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE EXCELLENT AREAWIDE WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AREAS AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
ALONG WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CENTRAL AND WEST WILL
LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU.
WITH THE DRYLINE SET UP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BRINGING IN
HIGHER MOISTURE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN
THE EAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AGAIN BE EXCELLENT IN THE
EAST AND POOR IN THE WEST.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAYS STAYING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP AREAWIDE
WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES REMAINING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CENTRAL AND WEST AND IN THE 20`S IN THE EAST. SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE FAR WEST BORDER WITH ARIZONA AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
CENTRAL AND EAST AS THE LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES CONTINUE EXCELLENT IN THE EAST AND POOR ELSEWHERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWERING IN
THE WEST. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY EXPECTED TO HUG THE
EASTERN BORDER ALONG TEXAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING
AREAWIDE. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH MIN RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS THIS FEATURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHERN NM.
THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORTHERN NM DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. AS THIS FEATURES EXITS MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS TO WHAT IS LEFT BEHIND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30KTS EXPECTED. KGUP EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO
35KTS THROUGHOUT MID DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH A DRYLINE
PUSHING INTO THE STATE FROM THE EAST A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT LOCATIONS IN THE EAST...HAVE VCSH AND
VCTS AT KTCC AND KROW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DRYLINE PUSH WILL LOWER CEILINGS AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
EXPECTED AT KLVS KTCC AND KROW. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT KROW
MAY BE SOONER THAN STATED IN TAF AT THE MOMENT. MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT AS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT THIS SITE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP DURING LATE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS IN THE WEST AND
EAST WITH A BETTER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORM DEV ELOPEMENT FRI
AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  49  87  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  38  81  37  81 /   5   0   0   0
CUBA............................  42  83  42  84 /   5   0   5   0
GALLUP..........................  42  83  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  38  78  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  44  85  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  46  83  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  48  88  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  38  74  40  73 /   5   0   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  53  79  52  80 /   5   5   5   5
PECOS...........................  50  76  49  78 /  10  20  10  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  44  78  42  77 /  10  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  39  68  41  68 /  20  20  10  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  71  33  72 /  20  20  10  10
TAOS............................  43  80  41  79 /  10  10   5   5
MORA............................  47  75  46  78 /  20  30  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  49  85  48  85 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA FE........................  51  79  51  79 /  10  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  50  85  50  85 /   5  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  56  87  58  87 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  58  89  59  88 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  54  91  56  90 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  54  91  56  91 /   0   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  52  92  53  92 /   0   5   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  55  92  56  91 /   0   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  59  95  59  95 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  85  52  85 /   5  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  53  85  53  85 /   5   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  47  82  47  83 /  10  10  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  52  81  50  81 /  10  20  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  53  84  53  83 /  10  10   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  55  87  54  87 /   5  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  52  77  51  77 /  20  30  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  52  78  53  80 /  30  20  20  20
RATON...........................  50  83  49  85 /  30  20  20  20
SPRINGER........................  50  82  49  85 /  30  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  47  78  48  82 /  20  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  56  83  58  87 /  40  30  30  20
ROY.............................  54  81  56  83 /  30  20  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  57  88  59  89 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  59  86  61  86 /  20  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  90  63  90 /  30  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  60  84  60  85 /  30  30  30  20
PORTALES........................  62  85  62  86 /  30  30  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  61  87  61  88 /  20  20  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  64  89  63  92 /  20  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  58  86  57  88 /  20  20  30  20
ELK.............................  57  81  56  82 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ105.

&&

$$

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