Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 290537 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT TERRAIN DOMINATED
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND KLVS WHERE BARRIER FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 15KTS BRIEFLY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...557 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
DROPPED RED RIVER LOW TEMPERATURES NIGHTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK IN ACCORDANCE WITH LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION AND GFS BASED
MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
SHARP TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...317 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING TOWARD NEW MEXICO FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND BE ANCHORED
OVERHEAD THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM WEST TEXAS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VALLEY INVERSIONS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO MODIFY/BREAK AS HIGH
CLOUDS SHIFT EAST ALLOWING FULL SUN TO REACH THE SFC. RELATIVELY
COLD NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE NW PLATEAU AND SAN JUAN
RIVER VALLEY SO ELECTED TO GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA
WITH ONLY LOCAL FREEZING TEMPS REPORTED TO DATE.

HEIGHTS RISE WEDNESDAY AS TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HEADS EAST
INTO AZ. GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURE INVERSION
LIKELY TO BREAK RATHER RELATIVELY LATE THURSDAY. NAM12 ON BOARD
WITH GFS IDEA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SURPRISINGLY
STRONG RETURN FLOW TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY
NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. NAM12 PRECIPITABLE WATER
FORECAST FOR 00Z SATURDAY OF 0.70" AT KABQ VERY NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. INTRODUCED MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE TRANSITIONING OVER
THE AREA IN THE FORM OF SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
WEST COAST TROUGH AND THE FACT THAT THE GULF MOISTURE IS NOT ALL
THAT FAR AWAY WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS HANGING ON AT DEL RIO AND
UVALDE TX. ECMWF CONTINUES IDEA OF SHOWERS OVER WRN NM AND IS NOT
EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE BUT ITS BROADER (39KM)
HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE LACK OF QPF.

SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND
CONTINUES CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER NW NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AREAS FAVORED IN SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE
NW JEMEZ AND WEST SLOPES OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DROP
TO AROUND 7500 FT LATE SUNDAY OVER FAR NRN NM WITH AN INCH OR TWO
POSSIBLE FROM DULCE TO CHAMA AND INTO THE NRN TUSAS.

TRAILING SHORT-WAVE KEEPS THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER NRN AZ SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...TRANSLATING IT EAST OVER NM MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THE TROUGH IS MOISTURE STARVED...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE NRN MOUNTAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS
GIVEN THE -21C TEMP AT 500MB. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE DRYING FROM A
MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POOR
VENT RATES FOR THURSDAY. MID TERM HIGHLIGHTS APPEAR TO BE INCREASED
WIND/HUMIDITY AND VENT RATES FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL IMPACTS ON
SUNDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY CLEARING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WITH PM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. LOOKING AT A MODERATE TO STRONG RADIATION OR LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DEVELOPING TONIGHT. DRY AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND CREATE SOME POOR TO MODERATE RECOVERIES ALONG
THE MIDSLOPES...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS. OBSERVATION
EVIDENCE OF A DRY INTRUSION ALREADY IMPACTING SURFACE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND STEADIER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE HIGH TERRAIN. COOL/FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
VALLEY/CANYON BOTTOMS WITHIN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND NW PLATEAU.

WARMER AND DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE 4 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO FALL DUE
TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION LOOKS
TO BE MODERATELY STRONG. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOME CENTRAL
LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE WARMING...VENTILATION SHOULD LOWER MOST AREAS
DUE TO EITHER MID LEVEL STABILIZING TIED TO A RIDGE OR LOWER
TRANSPORT WINDS. LOWEST VENT RATES SHOULD BE FOUND WITHIN PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
HIGHLANDS.

THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SHOULD BECOME MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CANT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES ACROSS LOWLAND WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY
AND PROVIDE A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN HUMIDITY FAVORING THE NE HIGHLANDS.
MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER MOST AREAS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST AND MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS
THE WEST. TRANSPORT WINDS ALSO LOWER MOST AREAS. LOOKING AT A GENERAL
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRANSPORT WIND FLOW ON THURSDAY THANKS TO THE FRONTAL
INTRUSION. LIGHT TO MODERATE GAP WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTNS.

HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD GO ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION ERODES AND THE SURFACE WIND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN. VENTILATION RATES WILL RESPOND AND
TREND MUCH HIGHER COMPARED TO THURSDAY. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SORT OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA BUT MOST ARE PICKING UP
ON SOME LOW CLOUD/DRIZZLE DVLPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN AND INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS. THEY WOULD BE INTERMITTENT AND ERRATIC IN DIRECTION.

THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY IS WHEN THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL THE MOST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
RESIDUAL BREEZINESS ON SUNDAY. MODELS POINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW MUCH. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF AT THIS TIME. VENTILATION WOULD
REMAIN PRETTY GOOD DURING THE WEEKEND.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$




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