Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 220229 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
829 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather is starting to unfold over the western U.S.
including New Mexico. A stout trough of low pressure has deepened
into a low over the tri-state area of Oregon, Idaho, and Nevada with
a strong jet stream aloft rounding its base. This sent stronger winds
aloft into New Mexico which mixed down to the surface earlier today.
Wind speeds should be notably less overnight, but some increased
moisture is expected to move into far east central and southeastern
New Mexico, potentially leading to low clouds and fog development.
The winds aloft will remain strong over NM into the weekend,
periodically mixing down to the surface with widespread breezy to
windy conditions expected each day. In addition, the deeper moisture
in eastern New Mexico will set off rounds of thunderstorms, some of
which may be strong to severe with heavy downpours, large hail, and
gusty winds. Precipitation will occasionally develop over north
central to northwestern New Mexico through the weekend, but it
should be of less impact than that in the eastern plains of the
state. Temperatures will also cool a few degrees through this time
frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds have now started decoupling with the loss of solar insolation,
but some occasional breeziness will still be observed overnight,
especially in north-south oriented valleys where the flow will be
more parallel to valleys. A more substantial moisture advection event
will also get underway tonight into Friday, especially over the
eastern plains of NM. Some low stratus and fog cannot be ruled out,
generally east of a Tucumcari to Roswell line through early Friday
morning.

For Friday, as a 100kt jet on the backside of the low digs
southward, it will send a secondary lobe of vorticity south as well.
Ahead of the low, the preceding jet will stretch from the Baja
northeastward over the Four Corners and into the front range of the
northern Rockies. This will introduce some scant dynamics aloft to
north central to northwestern NM, but the primary concern remains the
rapid increases in dewpoints/PWATs in eastern NM due to the return
flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Instability will be readily abundant
with 25 to 50 kt of bulk shear in the lower half of the troposphere,
mostly due to speed shear. This should sufficiently fuel strong to
severe storms, many of which become most prominent in the evening to
overnight hours Friday night. SPC continues to keep the eastern NM
plains outlined in a marginal threat for severe weather.

The second lobe of vorticity should become the dominant one into
Saturday, keeping the low closed over NV/UT with some weakening
observed with the attendant jet. The lee-side surface low will not be
as organized into Saturday, but still stronger winds aloft (30-40kt
in 700 to 500 mb layer) will mix down to the surface, more-so in
western NM than eastern. Meanwhile the moisture will stay rooted over
eastern NM. Depending how soupy the soils become in eastern NM during
Friday night`s storms, there could be a great deal of low clouds/fog
lingering Saturday morning and potentially stunting the
destabilization process into Saturday afternoon. The NAM continues to
insist sufficient temperature lapse rates and CAPE for strong to
severe storms in the afternoon while all models also keep
precipitation going over the east Saturday night. The European has
thrown a new development for Saturday, hinting that more moisture may
creep into some central to western zones from the southwest with
precipitation developing. Current forecast keeps POPs fairly low in
these zones, but will continue to monitor closely for necessary
raises.

Into Sunday the low inches only slightly eastward while filling in a
bit. A more pronounced dry slot will then work into western and
central NM through the day Sunday, but the moisture should stay
planted in the far eastern plains zones. Again, a strong to severe
storm threat looks reasonable for Sunday in these far eastern zones.

Into Monday the low over UT will be lifting northeastward into the
northern Rockies as an open trough. Another short wave trough will
dive on the back side of this feature but will not have the strong
jet support necessary to be a big dynamic weather maker on its own.
It will however have a cold front to work with, slated to nose into
northeastern NM by Monday afternoon with GFS and European solutions
seemingly having traded solutions with regard to timing/strength.

The front would introduce an easterly gap wind to central zones of NM
Monday night while spreading some precipitation increases over more
of the eastern half of the state. As the mid week time frame
approaches, the forecast will be dependent on the latter short wave
and its strength and trajectory. It currently appears to be on a slow
enough track to introduce forcing aloft of the cold front, but
forecast models have not been exhibiting great continuity. Suffice it
to say, the cooler than average temperatures will likely be the more
confident aspect of the forecast rather than precipitation during
the mid week period next week.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A longwave trough pattern over the western U.S. will see a pair of
lows develop through the weekend. This will keep stronger winds aloft
over NM while introducing deeper moisture to eastern parts of the
state. With the arrival of the moisture in the east, any critical
fire weather concerns will be neutralized. However, while some
periodic and modest increases in dewpoints/humidity are expected in
central to western NM Friday and Saturday, the breezy to windy
conditions will still warrant attention.

A dry slot will then arrive into western and central NM on Sunday.
This will dry dewpoints/humidity substantially Sunday afternoon, but
breezes are expected to decrease some in these zones by this time.
Minimum humidity will fall to less than 15 percent in scattered areas
along/west of the Rio Grande Sunday. As the latter of the lows opens
up and shift northeastward on Monday, it will keep the drier airmass
entrenched over western to central NM with sub-15 percent RH, but
wind speeds should turn even lighter by this time.

A cold front will then invade NM from the northeast, keeping
temperatures a few to several degrees below normal, helping to keep
critical fire weather concerns at bay. Precipitation could also
increase through this time as another disturbance aloft overruns the
cooler airmass during the mid week period, but confidence remains
relatively low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are currently in place across northern and central New
Mexico with breezy to windy conditions ongoing. Winds should diminish
after sunset in most places aside from some occasional moderate
breezes from the south. Winds will increase again on Friday with
widespread gusts of 25 to 35 kt, perhaps locally stronger. A surge of
moisture in the low layers of the atmosphere will lead to some low
stratus clouds and mist/fog in the east central to southeastern
plains early Friday morning where some IFR to MVFR ceilings are
expected. Into late Friday afternoon and the evening, this moisture
will yield strong to severe storms as the atmosphere turns unstable.
Large hail and damaging downburst winds will be possible in the
eastern plains with these storms.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  76  50  71 /   5  20  30  30
Dulce...........................  40  69  43  67 /  20  50  50  50
Cuba............................  47  73  49  71 /   5  20  30  40
Gallup..........................  47  74  46  70 /   0  10  10  20
El Morro........................  39  73  43  70 /   5  10  10  20
Grants..........................  46  77  47  73 /   5  10  10  20
Quemado.........................  50  74  49  70 /   5  10  10  10
Glenwood........................  59  78  59  79 /   5  10   5  10
Chama...........................  35  63  40  64 /  20  50  50  50
Los Alamos......................  54  77  53  71 /   5  10  30  30
Pecos...........................  50  77  52  73 /   5  10  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  40  72  45  67 /   5  10  30  30
Red River.......................  35  62  41  60 /   5  10  30  40
Angel Fire......................  34  71  42  66 /   5  10  40  50
Taos............................  42  77  47  72 /   5  10  30  30
Mora............................  47  76  50  70 /   5  10  40  40
Espanola........................  46  82  52  78 /   5  10  20  20
Santa Fe........................  48  79  51  72 /   5  10  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  50  81  53  76 /   5  10  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  82  58  77 /   5   5  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  61  84  61  80 /   0   5  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  86  58  81 /   0   5  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  85  58  80 /   0   5  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  53  88  59  83 /   0   5  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  57  84  58  81 /   0   5  10  20
Socorro.........................  58  87  61  85 /   0   5   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  78  52  73 /   5   5  10  20
Tijeras.........................  51  80  54  75 /   5   5  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  81  53  77 /   0   5  10  20
Clines Corners..................  51  77  53  74 /   0  10  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  55  80  57  77 /   0   5  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  60  80  62  81 /   5  10  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  54  71  56  74 /   5  20  30  30
Capulin.........................  47  78  52  71 /   5  10  40  50
Raton...........................  43  81  51  72 /   5  10  40  50
Springer........................  45  84  52  74 /   0  10  40  50
Las Vegas.......................  50  80  53  71 /   0  10  40  40
Clayton.........................  54  83  57  72 /   0  30  50  70
Roy.............................  51  81  56  72 /   0  20  60  60
Conchas.........................  59  87  61  77 /   5  20  60  70
Santa Rosa......................  60  86  61  79 /   5  30  50  60
Tucumcari.......................  60  89  63  79 /   5  40  60  70
Clovis..........................  59  85  62  77 /  10  20  40  70
Portales........................  59  86  62  78 /  10  20  40  70
Fort Sumner.....................  60  87  63  79 /  10  40  60  70
Roswell.........................  61  91  63  85 /  10  30  50  50
Picacho.........................  61  84  62  80 /   5  20  40  40
Elk.............................  58  77  59  77 /   5  30  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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