Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221009
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
309 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DROP TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PLUNGES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH GUSTS MAY TOP 60 MPH. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY. A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH LESS WIND IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO THE STATE
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE...MUCH
MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TODAY. HAVE WARMED UP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. NEARLY ALL AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENJOYED...AS MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY FOR TOMORROW AND MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER NM SUNDAY IN FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY PICK UP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH
TERRAIN AND AREAS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. WITH 700
MB WIND SPEEDS AOA 50KT...A FEW HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN WAVES MAY CRASH
TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RATON AND LAS
VEGAS...AS WELL AS ALONG I-40 NEAR CLINES CORNERS. SUDDEN AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY AS
A COLD FRONT PLUNGES IN FROM NW TO SE AND SOME MIXING OCCURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING...AND START IT A FEW HOURS
EARLIER...AND HAVE ALSO HOISTED WIND ADVISORIES TONIGHT FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NOT IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING...AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. WILL ALSO ADD WIND ADVISORIES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE NW PLATEAU.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL BE FOUND FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL...1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...THOUGH THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SANGRES MAY SEE 4 OR SO INCHES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL SLIDE OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FURTHER...BUT WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG.
THAT SAID...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES ONLY IN THE LOW 20S
TO LOW 30S IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN. NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A
FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
IS EXPECTED.

THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE PERTURBATIONS MID WEEK IN THE FLOW
ALOFT...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A RIDGE TO DEVELOP BY LATE WEEK.
THUS...AFTER MONDAY...DRY WX IS FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT THE EC AND CMC SHOW NOTHING OF IT. STAY TUNED.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

ONE STORM PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH RACES TOWARD US FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IS THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS LATER TODAY AND STRONG
WINDS TO MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON MONDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS. LESS WIND AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW
FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER WEATHER IN THE EAST FOR BLACK FRIDAY.

ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST AND NEAR
NORMAL IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THEIR EAST SLOPES AND ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 20S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION WILL BE NOTICEABLY BETTER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH FAIR TO VERY GOOD RATES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO HIGH WINDS
BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE MAY BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...STARTING AS RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. RH RECOVERIES WILL FAIR IN THE EAST AND GOOD TO
EXCELLENT IN THE WEST.

THE STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...MIXING DOWN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE
MIN RH VALUES COME UP 20 TO 30 PERCENT. ALL THE WIND AND RATHER HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT VENT RATES VIRTUALLY AREA
WIDE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
SUNDAYS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL CHILLY AIR WILL MAKE MONDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE WEST
AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MONDAY.

DRY AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
BUT THEN NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD INVADE THE EAST LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR BY FRIDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY ASIDE FROM A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE SANGRES AND THEIR EAST SLOPES ON THANKSGIVING. VENT RATES
WILL TAKE A HIT NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES IN THE NORTH AND
WEST TUESDAY AND MOST AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST BY SAT AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND AREAS ALONG
AND E OF THE CENTRAL MTS. AFTN PEAK GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND
30KTS AT KTCC AND KLVS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ALONG
MTN TOPS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...AS WNW FLOW
INCREASES ALOFT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SUNDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  53  29  43  16 /   0  10   5   0
DULCE...........................  48  23  40   9 /   0  20  20   5
CUBA............................  47  23  36  10 /   0  10  10   5
GALLUP..........................  53  26  41   8 /   0   5  10   0
EL MORRO........................  50  24  40  10 /   0   5  10   0
GRANTS..........................  54  27  43  11 /   0   5   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  51  30  42  13 /   0   0   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  64  30  58  23 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  45  21  38   3 /   0  30  30  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  48  31  38  19 /   0   5  10   0
PECOS...........................  49  30  39  16 /   0   5  10   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  45  21  36   7 /   0  10  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  43  19  28   0 /   0  10  40  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  15  34  -7 /   0  10  30  20
TAOS............................  46  22  37   8 /   0  10  20  10
MORA............................  50  29  40  14 /   0   5  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  52  28  42  19 /   0   5   5   0
SANTA FE........................  49  31  39  18 /   0   5  10   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  28  42  15 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  55  34  47  23 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  57  35  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  32  51  20 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  57  33  49  21 /   0   0   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  30  50  17 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  58  33  49  22 /   0   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  64  34  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  30  40  16 /   0   0   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  54  32  46  19 /   0   0   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  25  44   6 /   0   0   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  52  30  43  14 /   0   0   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  53  33  45  19 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  34  51  22 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  56  36  49  21 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  58  30  42  14 /   0   0  20  10
RATON...........................  57  28  44  12 /   0   0  20  10
SPRINGER........................  58  29  45  12 /   0   0  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  36  47  14 /   0   0  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  66  36  48  22 /   0   0  20  10
ROY.............................  62  32  47  17 /   0   0  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  65  39  54  25 /   0   0  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  65  40  55  24 /   5   0   5  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  38  55  23 /   5   0  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  66  38  55  23 /   5   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  67  40  57  24 /  10   0   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  39  57  24 /   5   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  38  68  26 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  64  39  57  25 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  61  38  53  25 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ502-504>508-511-512-522-524-527>529-533-539-540.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-518>520-525.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

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