Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 231750 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 AM MDT SUN OCT 23 2016
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions with light winds throughout forecast period.
Southwest flow aloft, with increased cloud cover over the NW
portions of New Mexico. A backdoor front will result in an east
canyon wind at KABQ and maybe stronger than advertised.
.PREV DISCUSSION...302 AM MDT SUN OCT 23 2016...
Above normal temperatures will continue to be the rule through the
end of October. Temperatures may near records for the date across
some locales today, and records will not be out reach for a few
spots nearly every day for the next week. Precipitation chances
look paltry, but the best chances continue to be Monday night
across northwest New Mexico, with lesser chances across the
remainder of central and western New Mexico. After that, it may be
November before the Land of Enchantment sees measurable
Some high clouds combined with southwesterly flow at the surface has
kept temperatures across the plains fairly warm so far -- especially
for late October. However, a weak back door cold front, now over
east central Colorado, will slide down the plains today. It is not
all that cold behind the front, and temperatures will remain above
normal areawide despite falling a few degrees across the NE compared
to yesterdays readings. Some areas will even flirt with record
temps, including portions of the EC and SE plains and the Rio Grande
Valley. Otherwise, some mid level moisture will seep into southwest
NM. A few cu and perhaps some virga will develop over the southwest
mountains this afternoon.
Better moisture advection will take place on Monday and Monday night
ahead of a weak Pacific shortwave. Though PWATs will increase to 1
to 2 standard deviations above normal, the combination of weak
forcing, a very dry antecedent atmosphere, and the fact that the
wave will be crossing overnight, sub-par precipitation totals are
expected across western and central NM. Best chances for precip
remain across the northwest quarter of the state Monday night, with
very spotty and light amounts elsewhere.
Light precipitation may linger Tuesday morning, but drier air aloft
will be filtering in from the west and should decrease precip
coverage during the afternoon. Thereafter, an upper level ridge will
build back in over NM. Despite a weak trough perhaps briefly
flattening the ridge on Friday night/early Saturday, the ridge looks
to be a semi-permanent feature Wednesday through at least next
weekend and perhaps beyond.
A ridge of high pressure will be the main weather story through next
weekend, providing mostly dry and mild weather. The lone exception
will be later Monday into Tuesday when a weak short wave trough
ejects out of the main storm system off the Pacific Northwest coast.
The ridge of high pressure will be centered along or just east of
the TX/NM border today. There will be mid and high clouds under the
high. We will not get any rain though, aside from some virga and
maybe a few sprinkles over the Upper Gila Region of the southwest
mountains. A weak backdoor cold front will slide into northeast NM
today and drift south and west tonight. East winds may drop into the
Rio Grande Valley tonight, but they will be weak and not a player in
our weather. Highs today will be cooler in the northeast behind the
front, little change in the west, and warmer in our southeast zones.
Highs will be well above normal, double digits above normal.
A potent storm spinning off the Pacific Northwest coast will draw
moisture northeast toward NM tonight and Monday, while a short wave
trough pops out of the main low. This weak trough will cross the
state late Monday night into Tuesday, with just enough moisture and
instability to kick off showers and a few thunderstorms over roughly
the northwest third of the forecast area. Timing would be Monday
afternoon into Tuesday, with Monday night having the most widespread
rainfall. Wetting rains will be possible from Datil to Marquez, Los
Alamos and Los Pinos on the CO border. Highs will cool across most
areas Monday and Tuesday, but still above late October normals.
The stubborn high pressure ridge will build right back up Wednesday
and be in control of our weather through the end of the week and
probably through next weekend. Dry and unseasonably warm
temperatures will be the rule during this time. A weak back door
front will slide south over the eastern plains and highlands late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with minor cooling in the east Wednesday.
Although it will be dry from midweek on, dewpoint temperatures will
be noticeably higher than they have been recently.
Ventilation rates will be fair to very good today, improve Monday
and Tuesday, when rates will be mostly excellent. Vent rates will
take a big hit on Wednesday with the high aloft rebuilding over NM.
Winds will be light and mixing heights low, producing poor rates
over the west and central zones. Rates will improve some Thursday
and Friday but patches of poor rates will continue, mainly over the
northwest and central valleys. Mostly poor rates return next weekend.