Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 190003 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
503 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

All TAF sites hanging on to VFR at the moment, but some will drop
to MVFR or IFR during the night, and to LIFR conditions at GUP
and FMN. Sprinkles and higher elevation flurries the next few
hours will not impact the forecasts. Precipitation free later
tonight into Thursday afternoon. Rain and snow showers will
develop Thursday afternoon over the northwest, including KGUP
and FMN. Windy conditions tonight over the central mountain onto
the east slopes and highlands. Strongest winds around CQC with
gusts to 45 kt.


.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MST Wed Jan 18 2017...
An upper level low pressure system over New Mexico is sluggishly
shifting eastward. Some isolated showers and perhaps a stray
thunderstorm will be possible in some central to eastern sections
of the state through the evening, but thereafter mostly dry
conditions will prevail overnight. Some areas of low clouds and
fog could redevelop toward dawn Thursday. A short-lived ridge of
high pressure will move over New Mexico Thursday, but will quickly
give way to a one-two punch of unsettled weather. A first
disturbance, arriving late Thursday into Friday, will bring some
precipitation to central and western New Mexico with more
widespread precipitation into Saturday as the second disturbance
arrives. Cooler temperatures, accumulating mountain snow, and a
mix of rain and snow in the valleys are expected through this


Isolated showers are blossoming over central, east central and
southeastern NM with prospects for a few lightning strikes before
mid evening, given some sufficient temperature lapse rates. Have
held onto some low POPs through mid evening with chances
diminishing thereafter as the upper low shifts farther away and
the atmosphere stabilizes. Low clouds and some patchy fog are
expected, but the areal extent should be less than was observed
this morning.

Into Thursday, short wave ridging will be observed on a short-
lived basis. Toward late Thursday afternoon the next round of
upper level forcing will arrive with increasing dynamics from the
next trough aloft. Sufficient Pacific moisture and some
orographics on west facing slopes will yield areas of
precipitation, generally in the form of valley rain and mountain
snow during the daytime, changing over to all snow in the
overnight hours. Overall Thursday`s high temperatures will not
deviate too much from today`s highs, and strong winds will persist
in the central mountains and highlands. Into Thursday night and
early Friday the initial short wave trough will race to the
northeast corner of NM with a second trough on its heels.

While short wave ridging would be observed during the day Friday,
the moisture and orographics should keep precipitation going in
the central to western NM zones. Friday will see cooler
temperatures, but any snow will likely still change over to rain
in lower elevation valleys Friday afternoon. Precipitation will
become more widespread and likely more substantial into Friday
night and Saturday with a lot more assistance from a stronger jet
streak aloft ushering in the next trough. This trough will likely
deepen and even close off into a low just beyond eastern NM late
Saturday. Overall QPF amounts are moderate to fairly high, and
could yield a few to several inches of snow for the mountainous
zones of central to western NM. The southward extent of the higher
QPF is notable with some of the southwestern mountains/Gila of NM
also faring quite well with several inches possible due to the
better moisture tap the jet is progged to make.

Sunday will be a chilly morning, but precipitation should wane
into the afternoon. The upper level pattern remains progressively
unsettled with another low crossing the intermountain west Monday
and Tuesday.



Wrap around moisture from the lingering upper level low across the
northern half of the state will keep cloud and occasional rain
showers around throughout the rest of the evening before slowly
exiting east of Tucumcari overnight. Occasional showers will develop
along and east of the central mtn chain. Low clouds/freezing fog
potential looks to develop again tonight across the northwest and
west central highlands. Meanwhile, overnight Rh recoveries will be
good to excellent the next several days.

As the upper low exits the state to our east, drier mid level air
will filter in from the N/NW Thurs as a brief upper level ridge sets
up over the state. Temperatures will be normal to above normal
central and east with lower daytime Rh values east of the estancia
valley in the upper teens/low 20s. W/NW winds will also increase
areawide with greater gusts along and east of the central mtn chain.
Thursday night, wetting precipitation will begin developing across
west as pref upper level ridging breaks down allowing mid to upper
level moisture to filter in.

Fri through early next week, a series of upper level systems will
impact the state. The first wave will arrive late Thurs/Fri slicing
through northern NM. The second wave will arrive late Fri/Sat with a
brief break Sun because of a dry level intrusion, then the final
more potent wave will arrive late Sun/Mon with greater mid to upper
level winds and wetting mixed precipitation focused on areas along
and west of the central mtn chain. Limited wetting precipitation
with windier and drier conditions will favor eastern areas during
the storm`s duration because of persistent downsloping winds. Vent
rates will be fair to good Thur before improving Fri/Sat. Values
will downgrade to poor north and west Sun with spotty improvements
by Mon.





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