Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 141202 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
602 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS TO BE LESS EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING...
BUT ALSO VERY HARD TO DISCERN DUE TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR CIGS GENERALLY POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST OF KCAO
SOUTH THROUGH SANTA ROSA AND KCVS TO KROW. EXPECTING THESE TO LIFT
OR SCOUR OUT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST
WHERE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN BY MID MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW TO THE EAST. SHOWERS
COULD ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR KROW.
ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN AFTER AROUND 03Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 09Z EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM TODAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BRING FRESH MOISTURE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WHICH
SPREADS WEST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT GETS KICKED EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH WILL
DRAW MOISTURE NORTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NM NEXT WEEKEND. HARD TO
SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TX WILL BRUSH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES
TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE PRETTY MUCH
IN RECYCLE MODE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FAVORING THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTHWEST
SHOULD ESCAPE ANY RAIN TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO HAVE A HARD
TIME OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. TYPICAL
EVENING CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED MONDAY TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN
IN THE NORTHEAST MONDAY THEN WARM RIGHT BACK UP TUESDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY ELSEWHERE WILL WARM A BIT OVER TODAYS READING THEN LEVEL
OFF FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE TRYING TO BUILD OVER NM FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS NEW WEEK. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL BE COMING INTO THE
WEST AND KICK THE RIDGE TO THE EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. THAT WILL
ALLOW A MODEST MOISTURE SURGE TO HEAD NORTH INTO THE STATE. THE
GFS ALSO BRINGS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN ALSO HINTS AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL
MEAN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RESULTING CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE
MIGHT BE THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
PRETTY MUCH LOSE THE STORM BY LATE WEEK. THE CANADIAN HAS A MUCH
MORE DEFINED SYSTEM THAT COMES INTO AZ FRIDAY. HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD GET TAPPED WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE STILL A
QUESTION MARK. REGARDLESS THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRETTY
ACTIVE.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE MODESTLY ACTIVE...FAVORING THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME EAST TEXAS WITH A
WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE...STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAY TODAY. THUS ANOTHER
ROUND OF BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL BE BEST IN
THE NORTHEAST...WHERE VALUES WILL BE VERY GOOD...AND FAIR TO GOOD
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS JUST ABOVE NORMAL NORTHERN ZONES AND STILL AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORTHERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WETTING RAIN IS
MOST LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH FOOTPRINTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...THE RIDGE AXIS
DRIFTS TO THE EAST AND A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MID
DAY. TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND RH VALUES INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN EXPANDS EAST. GAP WINDS INTO
THE CENTRAL VALLEY WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

LITTLE CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEAKER TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT
IN A DOWNTREND IN VENTILATION...WITH POOR TO FAIR VALUES MOST AREA.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
ODILE MOVES TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST JUST WEST OF BAJA. ON
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT MAINTAINING A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...WITH WETTING RAIN AGAIN LIMITED TO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES INCREASE...WITH ALL ZONES
FINALLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. VENTILATION REMAINS POOR TO FAIR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH GOOD VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE GENERAL IDEA IS TO
WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING WEST OF NEW MEXICO ABSORBING THE REMNANTS
OF ODILE. AT THIS POINT...IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE MUCH MOISTURE FROM ODILE
WILL MAKE IT INTO NEW MEXICO...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINING
WEST OF THE STATE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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