Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 151721 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1121 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with clear skies
and light winds. No aviation hazards are expected.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will trend 10 to 15 degrees cooler today behind a cold
front that moved through New Mexico overnight. High pressure will
dominate the area Monday and Tuesday then shift southwest into the
Baja region Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will gradually warm
above normal all areas while winds increase each afternoon through
the end of the week. Bright sunny skies early this week will give way
to thicker patches of high clouds as the week progresses. Cooler and
unsettled weather is possible by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Surface winds are tapering off early this morning in the wake of a
cold front that raced southward across the state. Very dry and cool
air is settling into the area with a 1030mb surface high center over
northern NM. High temps behind the cold front today will be close to
mid October normals over central and western NM and up to 10F below
normal across the east.

An unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure will build across
southern AZ Monday then break down over NM as a series of shortwave
troughs and ridges through Thursday. The overall result will be
gradually warming temps each day with readings 5-10F above normal
by Friday. The recent stretch of clear blue skies for central and
western NM will come to an end in this pattern as thick patches of
high clouds spread overhead beginning Wednesday.

Southwest winds will begin increasing Friday and Saturday while a
larger scale upper trough arrives on the west coast. The latest 00Z
deterministic and ensemble guidance is no longer in good agreement
with the pattern for next weekend. The greatest potential for any
unsettled weather at this time appears Saturday as an upper level
trough passes thru NM. Previous guidance developed a cut off upper
low over the state into early next week. Latest indications are the
upper wave will translate into TX while a strong upper high takes
shape over AZ.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of the cold front that crossed the west Saturday and the
east last night, high temperatures will continue to trend downward a
few to 13 degrees central and west today, and as much as 22 degrees
across the east. With the cooler temperatures will come widespread
poor ventilation today.

A ridge of high pressure will cross the southern Rockies Monday
through Tuesday night allowing temperatures to warm. High
temperatures are expected to reach above normal areawide Tuesday
afternoon with readings a few to 7 degrees above normal. Poor to
fair ventilation are now expected to persist Monday through
Wednesday, except for some pockets of good ventilation along and
east of the central mountain chain; where a lee trough should
produce some wind at times. A weak shortwave trough will cross on
Wednesday strengthening winds aloft some and causing a weak back
door cold front to sag into NE areas.

On Thursday, another weak shortwave will pass eastward over the
NM/CO border.  It will draw a moist low level return flow with
increasing humidities, especially across the east where temperatures
may fall up to 4 degrees from Wednesday`s readings. Humidities will
continue to increase on Friday, and southwest winds will become
gusty as a fairly deep trough crosses the Great Basin from the west.

The southern end of the upper trough will cross NM this weekend with
showers and thunderstorms developing over northwest areas as early
as Friday night. Models have been varying run to run on whether a
low pressure system will develop over NM as the upper trough
crosses. The latest run of the GFS closes one off just south of the
forecast area on Sunday, but the ECMWF closes it off over west
central TX.  This will impact the precipitation pattern, so there is
still a fair amount of uncertainty about which part of the forecast
area may receive the best wetting rain this weekend. Temperatures
should fall a few to several degrees.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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