Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 250522 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1022 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. MUSCULAR TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA WILL
SHEAR RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD...LEAVING NM IN BROAD TURBULENT NORTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT. DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETREAT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS AS TROUGH DEEPENS RAPIDLY
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 18Z TUE
MORNING...AND SOUTHBOUND COLD FRONT OUT OF WEST KANSAS CLIPS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY 06Z TUE NIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL G30KT AT TCC...WITH LESSER GUSTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...932 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER POPS AND AMT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH NM. ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPS 1 TO 5 DEGREES
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF N CENTRAL NM.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SEGMENT OF THE JET STREAM WILL USHER ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT INTO NEW MEXICO LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL REINFORCE THE CHILLY AIR OVER THE STATE WHILE
KEEPING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS GOING. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ARE ALSO EXPECTED...MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...BREEZES WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SHY OF NORMAL. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG MERIDIONAL COMPONENT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 165 KT JET
STREAK OVER NEVADA/UTAH THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS JET WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY...IT WILL STILL BUILD STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT INTO
NM TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP A CORE OF COLDER AIR INTACT OVER
NM ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE STRONG NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CUT DOWN ON OROGRAPHICS...LEADING TO
SNOW PRODUCTION MOSTLY FROM DYNAMIC PROCESSES ABOVE RIDGE TOPS.
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 9000 FEET BEFORE
DAWN TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RIVAL THIS MORNING`S
CHILLY READINGS IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN
SPEED...BUT WILL STILL BE OCCASIONALLY STIFF OUT OF THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ADDING TO THE BRISK NATURE OF THE COOLER AIR.

FLOW ALOFT WILL RETAIN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNABLE TO WARM UP TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...BUT RISE JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S READINGS. SOME LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...PERHAPS EVEN
SOME STANDING WAVE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THESE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
SHOULD STAY BREEZY TO WINDY PERIODICALLY TUESDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE
WINDS WILL BE LESS OVERALL.

THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND CONSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REDUCE IN
SPEED INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL YIELD WARMER
TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD MAKE IT BACK UP TO LATE NOVEMBER
AVERAGES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR ABOVE AVERAGE.
READINGS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES THURSDAY AND 7 TO 17 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY...AND WILL BE WARMEST IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
DOWN SLOPING BREEZES FROM THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP
RAISE THE MERCURY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FLOW WILL HAVE TURNED ZONAL BY FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO SATURDAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL THUS PLATEAU...AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BECOME BREEZY IN
THE EAST WITH THE RETENTION OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW.
AS SUNDAY UNFOLDS...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM WILL NOT ALTER
MUCH...HOWEVER A NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL DRIVE DOWN A COLD
FRONT INTO EASTERN NM. THIS WILL SET TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW
DEGREES...BUT ALL AREAS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL IN
ALL...IT SHOULD BE A GREAT TRAVEL WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AT LEAST WEATHER-WISE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON IS SLATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FROM THE PACIFIC. CURRENT FORECAST JUST HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOOKS TO BE
A TRANSIENT AND FAST MOVING SYSTEM.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW HIGH
ELEVATION VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH FRESH SNOW COVER COULD
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS TUESDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD NEW MEXICO. VENTILATION RATES WILL
RANGE FROM FAIR TO VERY GOOD TUESDAY AND THEN TREND DOWNWARD TO
MAINLY POOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN
THE RULE THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS STILL ON TRACK
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING PRIMARILY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHEN WEAK EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS BRING IN A
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL FLATTEN/WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND THE RESULTING DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SLOW UP TREND IN VENTILATION RATES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A MAJOR
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO COME ASHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BRING PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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