Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 260007 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
607 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

A weak low pressure trough aloft will cross at least part of the
way across north NM tonight. This should aid in keeping at least
a few showers and storms going somewhat longer into the night than
otherwise would be the case even though moisture levels across
west and central NM are not particularly high. All west and
central TAF sites have some risk of storm impacts, though KGUP and
KFMN likely the greatest risk between 00z and 04z. Across the
eastern plains showers and storms should be a little more vigorous
with brief mvfr conditions possible with the stronger cells. KTCC
will have the greatest potential of thunderstorm impact between
00z and 04z with KROW some risk between roughly 02z and 06z,
though a little lower potential than at KTCC. Fri aftn will again
bring a few to occasionally scattered showers and storms again to
the fcst area with the higher terrain favored initially.



Scattered to numerous storms will continue into the evening, with
more isolated activity across the northwest. Stronger storms look
to favor east central and southeastern areas. Locally heavy rain
will accompany storm activity. Expect storms to continue the rest
of the week developing over high terrain before traveling into
the valleys.



Currently, 700mb winds have indicated surface convergence along
and east of the central mountain chain followed by copious moisture
from the southeast. Recent HRRR models are showing storm activity
developing areawide but strong to possibly severe storms will
favor areas east of the central mountain chain because of easterly
winds backing against the mountains developing upslope flow giving
storms that extra needed lift. The 12z PWAT value for ABQ was 0.7
which was less than the 0.84 from previous but matched pretty well
with the NAM12 model. With copious moisture and slow but steady
storm motions, localized heavy rainfall will lead to periods of
flash flooding in some areas throughout the evening. Most storms
will gradually taper off late tonight.

Friday...A few upper level shortwaves will pass over the northern
and western mountains which will help in storm development across
the western and central mountains. Isolated storms will again
favor the east but could get severe at times with help from return
flow from the southeast.

The Weekend...Look for an increase in scattered to numerous storms
as the upper level trough digs over the Four Corners Region
Saturday. Embedded shortwaves will trail ahead of the approaching
trough helping storms develop west to east. So far NAM12 has the
heaviest activity over the northwest and north central mountains
before spreading eastward. Storm activity will continue into
Sunday but activity looks to be strong to severe central and east
as upper level shortwaves collide with copious moisture from
return flow east of the central mountain chain. By this time,
NAM12 begins to show some kind of frontal boundary developing east
of the continental divide.

Monday through far the Euro and GFS has the upper
trough breaking down with left over moisture being recycled.
Both models agree of a strong upper level trough over the Pacific
Northwest with high pressure building to our far east but by the
weekend, GFS has high pressure over the region with little storm
activity while the Euro has high pressure over Central Texas with
the upper level trough over the Great Basin, which we could a
return in our monsoonal pattern.



An upper level trough will cross the northern and central Rockies
tonight and Thursday...drawing additional monsoon moisture northward
over New Mexico. An embedded short wave trough will cross northern
NM tonight, which should keep wetting showers and thunderstorms
active for much of the night.

A weak low pressure circulation aloft will form over central CA
Friday, then weaken and finally shear apart as it drifts slowly east
southeastward over AZ Saturday and Sunday.  This will allow monsoon
moisture to continue to track north and northeastward over New
Mexico. Previous model runs suggested an upper level ridge of high
pressure would then extend northeastward toward the Four Corners
from a parent high pressure system over the eastern Pacific early in
the coming weak inducing some drying over western and northern parts
of the forecast area. However, recent model runs have been weakening
the Pacific ridge in favor of a stronger upper high over the
southern plains and Mississippi River Valley. Circulation around
that high is now forecast to remain fairly robust with decent
monsoon moisture now forecast to persist over the forecast area
through the middle of the coming work week. In the absence of any
forcing from disturbances, there probably will be a downtick in
thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity early in the coming
week.  However, a broad upper level low is forecast to reach the NW
U.S. by Wednesday, strengthening the monsoon plume over western NM.

Due to the cloud cover and precipitation associated with the stream
of monsoon moisture, high temperatures are forecast to be near
normal to several degrees below normal for the next 7 days. Low
temperatures will generally range near normal to several degrees
above normal. Humidity recoveries will be good to excellent each
night.  Haines indices will generally vary from 2 to 4.





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