Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 261804 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1204 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NE AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOOKED AT CURRENT CUMULUS FIELD AND NAM12KM TRENDS. NE PLAINS AND
NE HIGHLANDS STAND TO SEE A BETTER CHANCE. SIMILARLY FOR ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MOVING
EASTWARD. STILL LOOKING AT ISOL ACTIVITY FOR THE LOWER/MIDDLE RGV
BUT WORTH OF A MENTION. OVERALL ACTIVITY DOWN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY HOWEVER. TEXT PRODUCTS AND WEBPAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1155 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TODAY BUT
ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FOR ISOLD-WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NRN MOUNTAINS.
12Z MODELS SHOW LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NW PLATEAU INCLUDING KFMN BTWN 2703Z/2706Z. OTHERWISE...MOST
AREAS WILL SEE DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE EVENING
WITH MID CLOUDS DISSIPATING GRADUALLY AFTER SUNSET.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY...LIMITING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOME MORE PLENTIFUL.
THIS WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORT WAVE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BRUSH NRN NM...AND
HIGHEST GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY ARE AIMED AT THE NRN BORDER OF THE
STATE AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. STEERING FLOW
WOULD TAKE CELLS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST...A FEW MAY
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE NE PLAINS/PECOS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING
AND SUCCEEDING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE JUST HOW FAR EAST AS
CURRENT POPS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE WARMS UP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY TODAY AND EVEN
MORESO WEDNESDAY.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY REMAINS CONSISTENT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE BACKED
OFF FOR THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST. THE BIGGER EVENT NOW MAY BE THE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND
WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST DIVE TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO WANT TO WARM UP A BIT TOO MUCH
THURSDAY AND STAYED BELOW IT FOR THE FORECAST HIGHS THAT DAY.

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPICTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL THERE...BUT WHAT
IMPACT IT MIGHT HAVE ON NM WEATHER IS IN DOUBT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND A WEAK WIND
SHIFT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM BEHIND IT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT PLUS ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
TODAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. CORRESPONDINGLY...
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NM...BUT
WILL STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HELP
TEMPS TO WARM UP FURTHER. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. COULD
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
MTNS...BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS
LOOK TO BE TOO LIGHT TO SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...THOUGH HAINES
VALUES OF 6 WILL BE PRESENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
NM/AZ BORDER...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS.  AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT HAINES VALUES OF 6 WILL PERSIST.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. THE
FRONT MAY SQUEAK THRU THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. ON SATURDAY...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP PUSH
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MAY MEAN A MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY IS IN STORE
FOR WESTERN NM.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR NE NM FRIDAY...SATURDAY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE
QUARTER OF THE STATE WHERE POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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