Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 182355 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
455 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered showers and even a thunderstorms or two have developed
across central NM this afternoon. This precip is expected to continue
into the evening, though little, if any impacts are expected to TAF
sites. Winds will continue to increase over the northern high terrain
overnight, and at lower elevations, winds will remain breezy across
all areas through the overnight, before ramping back up by mid
morning Monday. Gusts near 50kt are possible overnight across the
Sangre de Cristo peaks and Monday across much of the higher terrain.
Snow will develop across the northwest mountains overnight and
persist through Monday. Mtn obscurations can be expected. BLSN is
also possible with reduced visibilities. BLDU will also be possible
Monday afternoon across the eastern plains and perhaps near KGUP if
precip does not occur there.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...237 PM MST Sun Feb 18 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
All eyes on the upcoming storm that will impact NM through Tuesday.
Strong to high winds will have the most widespread impact across our
CWA. Significant snow accumulations will fall in our northern and
western mountains, with light amounts in the western and central
valleys. Much colder air will pour into NM Monday night through
Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Storm over the Pacific Northwest will dive south tonight then turn
east Monday, carving out a deep trough of low pressure over the
Great Basin. Southwest flow aloft will bring lots of moisture into
the state tonight into Monday night, with significant snowfall in the
western and northern mountains. Strong to high winds will impact much
of our forecast area from later tonight into Tuesday. A strong cold
front will race across NM Monday night and Tuesday with sharply
colder temperatures in the wake of the front. A flash freeze could
occur as the cold air pours into the western and central areas Monday
night. Winter storm warnings and high wind warnings and watches will
be issued with this forecast package. Additional winter weather and
wind advisories will need to be issued later. The highest winds Will
be over the mountains onto the adjacent east slopes/highlands of the
central mountains. The most significant snow accumulations will be
over the western and northern mountains. More specifically, the
highest amounts are forecast for the San Juan/Tusas, Jemez and
Southwest Mountains where localized amounts will reach one foot or
more.

The weather will relax Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions and
less forecast. Temperatures will moderate some, but remain below
normal. A couple of short wave troughs will impact NM, one late in
the week and another over the weekend. But precipitation looks to be
confined to the northern mountains, and probably pretty light at
that.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH WINDS STARTING TONIGHT OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CHUSKA
MTNS, EXPANDING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS MONDAY.

Sfc moisture remains high across most of the forecast area, outside
of the far NE highlands where MinRHs are dipping into critical fire
weather criteria at a few spots along I-25 to the Johnson Mesa this
afternoon. Otherwise the rest of today will be breezy to windy, with
sfc moisture continuing to advect into the area into Monday. SW
winds increase further Monday, starting overnight atop the Chuska
and Sangre de Cristo Mtns where wind gusts could reach 55-60mph.
Windy conditions expand down after sunrise tomorrow peaking 30-35mph
with gusts to 40-50mph for most valley locations, and 40-50mph at
higher elevations with gusts up to 60-65mph. Despite MinRHs only
dropping to around 30% across the far NE, the long duration winds
and continued dry soil moistures there will still warrant elevated
fire weather.

Wetting precip. will begin to move into the Gila tonight, expanding
over the northern mtns during the day Monday. Valley locations will
begin to fill in with rain showers as a Pacific front moves into the
NW half of the state Mon night into Tue morning. Higher snow amounts
of 8-12" will be possible atop the higher peaks of the Mogollon and
Sangre de Cristo Mtns, with closer to two feet atop the Tusas Mtns
through Tuesday. Wetting precip. will move out by Tue afternoon as
the Pacific front moves through eastern NM bringing much colder and
drier air behind it. Breezy to windy conditions will persist over
the southern Sangre`s and east-central highlands through Tue
morning. Highs will drop 15-20F Tue making it the coldest day across
the west, with Max Vent Rates remaining fair to excellent.

A backdoor front will move down the eastern plains Tue night and Wed
morning making Wed the coldest day across the east. Southerly return
flow looks to bring back some sfc moisture to the east Thu, but
another Pacific front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold and dry
air Fri and into the weekend.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ513>515-523-527>534.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Tuesday
for the following zones... NMZ503-504-508-510-511.

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for the
following zones... NMZ505-506-512-521-523-524-526>529-540.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST Monday for the following zones...
NMZ502-513>515.

&&

$$



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