Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 222230
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Yet another Pacific storm system will bring low elevation rain
and higher elevation snow to much of central and northern New
Mexico starting tonight and continuing Monday night. Snow levels
will lower to valley bottoms as the associate cold front moves
through Monday night. Snow showers along with a very cold airmass
will follow the cold front Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cold will be
the rule through the remainder of the week with most locations 10
to as much as 20 degrees below average for late January.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An impressively deep upper low and associated trough located off
the WA coast this afternoon. This system will result in another
round of low elevation rain and accumulating higher elevation snow
to much of the area beginning this evening and continuing into
Monday night. Upgraded the winter storm watch to a winter storm
warning for the Chuska, Tusas, and Jemez mountains late tonight
through 12z Tuesday. Issued a winter weather advisory for the
remainder of the watch area and included the west-central
mountains. Favored area for the heaviest snow accumulation is
from the San Pedro Peaks area north and northeastward to the west
slopes of the Tusas mountains east of Chama and Tierra Amarilla.
ECMWF progs a swly jet that is farther southeast than the GFS prog
late-day Monday which would favor portions of the northern Sangre
de Cristos. Went with a winter weather advisory for this area for
now based on previous events there but can`t rule out locally
heavy snow for areas north of Hwy 64 above 7500 ft.

Trough axis slides through mid-day Tuesday with isolated snow
showers and a very cold airmass. Cold to very cold conditions will
remain the rule Tuesday through the remainder of the week with
many locales 10 to 20 below average for late January under
northwest to nly flow aloft.

Models agree that an upper level ridge along the west coast will
return during the Wednesday through at least next weekend
timeframe, keeping upper level lows/troughs well north of the
area.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Good coverage of wetting precipitation on Friday and Saturday is
being followed by only a short break prior to chances for wetting
precipitation ramping back up tonight through Tuesday as the jet
stream dips south across the Desert Southwest and New Mexico. The
best chances for wetting precipitation (snow) will be late Monday
through early Tuesday across the Western and Northern Mountains
including the Northwest Plateau/Highlands. Winds will ramp-up
through Tuesday as well, with the strongest winds forecast Tuesday
across eastern and south central New Mexico. Vent rates will trend
up through mid week thanks to the stronger winds.

Temperatures will trend down to below normal areawide early week,
then continue below to well below normal through the end of the work
week and into next weekend thanks to a northern stream trough and
reinforcing cold front on early Friday. Vent rates will trend down
through late week and into the weekend with a stable atmosphere in
place and weaker winds. Other than the early week precipitation, it
appears we`re headed into an extended dry period given the 12z GFS
and ECMWF both showing a cutoff low over western/coastal Mexico and
ridging over the Intermountain West from days 8-10.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with a couple
exceptions. An approaching trough will lead to increasing
atmospheric moisture and the development/lowering of VFR cigs
through the TAF period. An area of snow is forecast to develop
across northwest New Mexico this evening and overnight and will
likely impact KFMN with MVFR conditions and potential for short-
lived IFR conditions. MVFR cigs are forecast to develop at KGUP
overnight, but snow is expected to remain north. Otherwise,
increasing winds throughout the atmosphere will lead to strong
ridgetop winds Monday and the development of stronger surface
gusts prior to 18z at KLVS and KTCC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  31  44  27  33 /  60  60  70  30
Dulce...........................  24  37  18  28 /  70  80 100  50
Cuba............................  26  39  21  27 /  70  60  80  60
Gallup..........................  30  41  22  30 /  30  40  80  40
El Morro........................  26  40  21  28 /  30  40  90  40
Grants..........................  28  45  23  31 /  20  30  70  30
Quemado.........................  30  42  25  32 /  20  30  80  30
Glenwood........................  33  50  29  38 /  10  30  80  30
Chama...........................  20  35  14  24 /  80  90 100  60
Los Alamos......................  28  39  24  30 /  40  50  70  40
Pecos...........................  27  44  24  30 /  30  30  70  40
Cerro/Questa....................  22  34  17  25 /  50  70  80  40
Red River.......................  21  32  15  22 /  60  70 100  60
Angel Fire......................  22  35  14  25 /  50  60  90  40
Taos............................  24  38  20  27 /  40  60  70  40
Mora............................  28  43  22  29 /  30  40  60  40
Espanola........................  30  44  27  34 /  30  40  50  30
Santa Fe........................  28  43  24  30 /  30  40  70  40
Santa Fe Airport................  28  46  26  33 /  30  30  60  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  33  51  29  36 /  20  10  50  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  33  53  31  38 /  10  10  50  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  31  55  32  40 /  10  10  40  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  32  54  31  39 /  20  20  50  20
Los Lunas.......................  30  58  30  42 /   5  10  40  20
Rio Rancho......................  32  54  30  38 /  20  20  50  30
Socorro.........................  33  57  33  44 /  10   5  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  30  46  27  33 /  20  20  70  30
Tijeras.........................  28  48  28  35 /  10  10  60  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  27  50  28  34 /  10  10  50  20
Clines Corners..................  28  47  26  32 /  10  10  50  30
Gran Quivira....................  30  48  29  37 /   5   5  50  20
Carrizozo.......................  34  52  33  41 /   5   5  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  33  49  29  37 /   5  10  40  30
Capulin.........................  28  48  25  36 /   5  10  20  10
Raton...........................  27  50  25  37 /   5  20  30  10
Springer........................  29  52  27  38 /  10  10  30  10
Las Vegas.......................  30  49  26  34 /  10  20  40  20
Clayton.........................  30  61  32  46 /   5   5  10   5
Roy.............................  31  56  30  41 /   5   5  20  10
Conchas.........................  36  63  35  47 /   0   5  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  35  60  34  44 /   5   5  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  36  66  36  50 /   0   5  10   0
Clovis..........................  34  64  38  50 /   0   5  10   0
Portales........................  35  66  39  51 /   0   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  34  64  36  49 /   0   5  10   0
Roswell.........................  34  71  39  55 /   0   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  36  60  37  46 /   5   5  10   5
Elk.............................  36  56  35  42 /   5   5  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for
the following zones... NMZ512>514-516.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Tuesday
for the following zones... NMZ502-510-511.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Tuesday
for the following zones... NMZ503-504-506.

&&

$$

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