Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 281010
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
410 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ENHANCED COVERAGE OVER THE
GILA REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. YET ANOTHER SOUTHWARD-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY...THEN MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE DRIER AIR
SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROUGH THAT APPROACHED THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE MADE THE PIVOT NORTH...AND IS BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO SC/SW ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING ON ITS FAVORED EAST FLANK. ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR FENCE LAKE/QUEMADO SEWD TO
DUNKEN IS SLOWLY FILLING IN AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS LOOSELY ALIGNED FROM NW TO SE
OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM. LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS NOW DISPLACED WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.

AMONG CHALLENGES NEXT 24 HOURS  WILL BE GAUGING HOW QUICKLY AIR
MASS RECOVERY TAKES PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER...AND HOW MANY WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TO
PLACE UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FOCUS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING
WILL BE ON THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MODELS GENERALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER THOUGH LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED WATER VAPOR
LOOP THIS FEATURE MAY BE TRACKING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WHAT
MODELS SUGGEST. ADDITIONALLY... LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD
IN A BROAD UPSLOPE PATTERN THAT WILL ESPECIALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL...THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD DEFLATE SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE NW-SW RIDGE AXIS
BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FAR MORE ERRATIC BUT DO NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER WAVE NEAR THE AZ LINE.

DECIDED TO RE-POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH
AIR MASS RECOVERY MAY DELAY THINGS THERE TILL LATE. WILL INCLUDE
MOST OF THE BURN SCARS IN THE WATCH AS WELL...AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT REEVALUATE TRENDS WITH POSSIBLE EXPANSION FOR SOME AREAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AREAS
FROM CLINES CORNERS AND ENCINO TO CORONA LOOK PRIMED...AS DOES
THE UPPER GILA AND WC MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TUE PM INTO WED
PM... RECHARGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH
THAT BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN.  KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WETTING RAINS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BURN SCAR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE MONSOON PLUME TO
NUDGE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR
TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME RELATIVELY LARGE FOOTPRINTS. FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. RH RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST...
THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL SEE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS
ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO
REFLECT THIS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH MOVES WEST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AND EXTENDED
MODELS KEEP IT THERE THOUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL...MOIST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT ON SATURDAY.
THUS... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A VERY ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. A MASSIVE COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH CLOUD TOPS
NEAR 50KFT AGL WILL RAIN OUT OVER THE AREA THRU THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ONTO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
NEAR 030 AROUND KLVS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST...A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS WILL SHIFT NW AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA FROM
NEAR SOCORRO NORTHWEST ALONG THE CONT DVD TO NEAR GRANTS. MODELS
EXPAND THIS AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THIS SCENARIO SO
NOT INCLUDING ANY TEMPO GROUPS FOR PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE THE BIG
QUESTION SINCE TODAY FIRED MUCH MUCH EARLIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATED. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE BY THE END OF THE DAY THE FOCUS
WILL END UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SE NEW MEXICO...AND ALONG THE
ARIZONA BORDER. GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  87  65  86  63 /  40  60  50  20
DULCE...........................  81  55  78  52 /  60  60  70  30
CUBA............................  80  57  78  57 /  60  70  70  30
GALLUP..........................  83  59  84  59 /  50  70  50  20
EL MORRO........................  78  55  78  56 /  50  60  50  30
GRANTS..........................  82  57  82  57 /  60  60  50  30
QUEMADO.........................  78  57  79  58 /  70  50  40  30
GLENWOOD........................  84  60  86  62 /  60  50  30  30
CHAMA...........................  75  50  72  48 /  80  70  90  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  79  59  76  58 /  60  70  70  40
PECOS...........................  76  57  75  57 /  70  70  70  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  75  52  73  51 /  70  50  70  40
RED RIVER.......................  65  47  64  47 /  80  60  80  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  46  70  46 /  80  60  70  60
TAOS............................  78  54  75  52 /  40  50  60  30
MORA............................  73  54  73  52 /  70  70  70  60
ESPANOLA........................  84  60  81  59 /  40  60  60  30
SANTA FE........................  79  59  77  59 /  50  60  60  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  82  60  80  60 /  50  60  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  82  64 /  60  50  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  67  85  68 /  40  50  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  65  87  66 /  30  40  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  67  86  67 /  50  40  40  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  89  65  87  67 /  30  40  40  20
RIO RANCHO......................  87  67  85  66 /  50  40  50  20
SOCORRO.........................  90  68  90  68 /  40  40  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  60  81  61 /  70  60  60  40
TIJERAS.........................  82  60  82  61 /  60  60  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  58  82  58 /  70  60  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  78  59  79  59 /  70  60  50  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  61  82  62 /  70  60  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  84  64  84  65 /  40  40  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  80  58  79  60 /  50  50  50  30
CAPULIN.........................  73  58  75  57 /  60  60  60  70
RATON...........................  77  57  78  57 /  60  50  60  70
SPRINGER........................  78  59  80  57 /  60  50  60  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  76  57  77  56 /  60  70  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  79  63  83  61 /  60  50  50  60
ROY.............................  77  62  80  61 /  60  60  60  50
CONCHAS.........................  85  68  87  66 /  30  70  40  30
SANTA ROSA......................  86  67  86  66 /  30  70  40  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  87  68  88  68 /  30  60  40  30
CLOVIS..........................  86  65  86  65 /  40  60  30  30
PORTALES........................  88  67  89  67 /  40  60  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  88  68  89  68 /  20  60  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  94  70  94  71 /  20  30  20  10
PICACHO.........................  86  66  86  65 /  40  40  30  20
ELK.............................  81  61  81  63 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ508-510>515-526>532.

&&

$$

41




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