Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 161132 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Upper level high pressure centered over AZ will deliver clear skies
and light winds to central and western terminals the next 24 hrs. A
weak lee trough over northeastern NM will develop southwest breezes
at KLVS and KTCC aft 17Z. Winds will taper off again after sunset.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...317 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and clear conditions will persist today, with the exception of a
few high clouds over the northern mountains. Temperatures will climb
back above average through Thursday before cooling off a tad. Winds
pick up by Friday ahead of the next cold front that will drop
temperatures back below normal for the weekend. Precipitation will be
mostly limited to the northern mountains and the eastern plains
during the passage of the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly clear skies and a very dry airmass over NM, seen both on WV
satellite imagery and in the 00Z sounding showing 0.14" PWAT. This
has allowed overnight lows to dip several to ten degrees below
average across much of the state this morning. The upper high is
situated over NW Mexico setting up NW flow over the state today with
highs climbing several to ten degrees above Sunday`s readings, and
above average across the west. The warming trend continues Tuesday
and Wednesday with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Some cooling
across the west could occur Wednesday with a weal shortwave trough
passing by and high clouds entering over western NM, however temps
are still expected to remain well above average.

By Thursday, a disturbance will approach western NM, with the chance
for isold precip off the western high terrain in the afternoon. With
the breakdown of the ridge, temps will trend down a few degrees
still remaining above normal.

The next deep trough will enter the Pacific NW by Friday, reaching NW
New Mexico by Saturday morning. The GFS has caught up with the ECMWF
with the timing of the trough Saturday, as well as both models developing
a closed low over central TX by Sunday. This system will drop temps
across much of NM for the weekend, as well as another chance for a
light and isolated amounts of snow atop the peaks of the Sangre`s
and Tusas mtns Sunday morning. The airmass associated with this
system is not terribly cold, and temperatures will feel rather fall-
ish with highs in the 50s and 60s across most of the forecast area.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry high pressure sprawling over the southwest U.S. today will
break down across the region through Tuesday. Light northwest flow
aloft today will transition more zonal Tuesday. Temperatures will
trend roughly 5 to 10F warmer today over the entire area and another
5F warmer across eastern NM Tuesday. Min humidity values will range
from near 10% across western NM to near 25% along the TX state line
today and Tuesday. Overnight humidity recoveries will still be good
to excellent under strong midslope inversions and chilly low temps.
An overall light wind regime both days will favor poor to fair vent
rates areawide.

Wednesday will be a transition day as a weak shortwave trough moves
east across NM. Thicker high clouds will spread east over the area
and end the recent extended stretch of clear blue skies. Increasing
southerly flow will help trend min humidity values 5 to 10% higher
than Tuesday. Guidance is trending wetter Thursday as the shortwave
trough becomes more negative tilt and helps return flow deepen low
level moisture over central and eastern NM. The chance for wetting
rainfall still looks very low however virga showers and light rain
showers will now favor the central mt chain. Slight improvements to
ventilation are expected both days.

More notable changes begin Friday as the upper wave ejects east and
stronger flow aloft arrives from the west. A large scale upper level
trough will take shape over the western U.S. then attempt to carve
out an upper low over southeastern NM and western TX late Saturday.
Cooler temps and more widespread cloud cover are expected with this
wave along with improving ventilation. The potential for wetting
precip will focus over the northern mts and northeast plains where
some light snowfall is possible on higher peaks Saturday.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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