Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 291059
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
459 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Issuing a winter weather advisory for Eastern Lincoln County and the
South Central Highlands and Mountains through 3am MDT.
.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017...
A closed low over northwest NM will drop southeast this morning then
turn east across central NM this afternoon before departing the state
tonight. Exceptionally cold air for late April will pour into the
state today and will ensure a cold night tonight. Wrap around
moisture may keep light precipitation going in the far northeast
Sunday morning, otherwise it will dry and milder. Northwest flow will
relax some Monday with a continued dry and warmer scenario. A Pacific
Northwest trough will drop southeast and brush northeast NM Tuesday
into Wednesday. Highs will inch up on Tuesday lower again Wednesday.
A ridge of high pressure will build over NM for the end of next week
with dry and warmer conditions.
Winter has returned to the Land of Enchantment with a potent storm
over northwest NM that will track across the middle of the state
today. Colder air will pour into the east today with gusty north
winds. Snow will favor the central mountains and northeast with a
foot or more of snow expected on the higher peaks and east slopes as
well as the far northeast. Blowing snow will add to the misery in
the northeast with poor visibilities. Rain and snow will fall in the
northwest and central valleys, and the east central plains. We will
need to watch the Rio Grande Valley as a couple of the high
resolution models suggest some heavier precipitation this morning.
700 mb temperatures are forecast to be -7 or -8 degrees C, which
could support wet snow in ABQ, especially in the foothills. All of
northern and central NM will experience highs that are 20 to 40
degrees below normal today!
Snow will diminish and end tonight while temperatures plunge into
the teens and 20s to lower 30s. Wind chills will drop to the single
digits tonight in the northeast.
Aside for a little rain and snow Sunday morning in the far northeast
we will enjoy dry weather and milder temperatures, although the
warming in the northeast will only be several degrees, while most
elsewhere will be 10 to nearly 20 degrees warmer.
Northwest flow aloft will weaken Monday with less wind, more sunshine
and warmer highs. A weak short wave trough will move southeast from
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday and deepen as it crosses NM Wednesday.
Rain and some mountain snow will favor the Sangres east to the TX
border Tuesday and Tuesday night, with rain pressing farther south
Wednesday. Highs will inch up on Tuesday but lower Wednesday with
the passage of the upper trough and a surface cold front.
The end of next week will return to a dry and warmer weather pattern
as a ridge of high pressure builds over the state.
An unseasonably cold upper level low just east of the Four Corners
early this morning will slide south-southeast through mid morning
before shifting eastward across the plains and finally northeast
into west Texas by early evening. Additionally this morning, a
reinforcing shot of cold air will drop down the plains which will
cool temperatures sufficiently such that most, if not all, the
precipitation will turn to snow. Some high resolution models
indicate that additional bands of precipitation will develop along
the Rio Grande Valley later this morning, and even more showers this
afternoon. Given the -7 to -8C temperatures at 700 mb, this precip
should fall as snow, or at very least, a mix of rain and snow.
Precip will continue through much of the day across central and
eastern NM, and finally diminish around or just after midnight
High temperatures today will be 20 to 40 degrees below normal. After
this winter-like day, winter-like temperatures are expected tonight.
A widespread freeze and hard freeze is expected. Portions of the
east central plains and middle Rio Grande Valley have not seen a
freeze since early this month.
Northwest flow will prevail Sunday through the middle of the week,
with a couple of shortwave troughs impacting northeast NM. The first
trough will slide over the state on Monday night with little change
to our sensible weather, but the second and stronger shortwave will
cross CO and graze NE NM Tuesday night. This latter system will send
a strong cold front through the plains Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Behind the front, dewpoints will rise and precipitation chances will
increase across northeast NM. The front may even push westward
through the gaps of the central mountain chain Wednesday night. All
in all, a warming trend is expected through Tuesday, though high
temperatures will still remain at or below normal. Temps will then
drop again behind the front on Wednesday. Locally breezy to windy
conditions can be expected Sun through Tues in locales favored in
northwest flow, and then again behind the front Wednesday.
Aside from poor ventilation on Monday and Tuesday across northeast
NM, ventilation rates should be good or better over the next few
days. Ventilation should decrease on Thursday as an upper level
ridge moves overhead.
06Z TAF CYCLE
Significant aviation impacts are expected for at least central and
eastern NM over the next 24 hours. An upper low will dive south and
east over the forecast area tonight and early Saturday as a
reinforcing cold front races across the plains. Rain and snow ongoing
across much of eastern NM attm will change to all snow after the
reinforcing cold air moves in, though there may still be some rain
near KROW. Widespread MVFR and IFR cigs/vsbys are expected
along/east of the central mtn chain. Accumulating SN expected at
least along and north of I-40. Though a few showers are expected
across western NM, TAF sites should largely remain VFR. Precip will
diminish from west to east between 00z and 09z Sun, with low clouds
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM MDT Sunday for the following
Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM MDT Sunday for the following