Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 291607 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1007 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS
AND NE HIGHLANDS. THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE CAUGHT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NC/NE PORTIONS OF NM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION BUT EXPECT
THOSE CLOUDS TO ERODE AWAY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. PWATS WILL
BUMP UP COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT COULD BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY AN
INCREASE IN STEERING FLOW. EITHER WAY...THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH CENTRAL AREAS IS ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED HEAVY RAINERS. MODELS SHOW THE MAIN
CONVECTION ENDING BY MID EVENING BUT RAIN THE WATCH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT JUST IN CASE.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...556 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z. THEREAFTER...
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE STEADILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
STRONG JET ALOFT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AFTER 01Z BUT CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ZONES. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND 06Z WITH
LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...403 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEW MEXICO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PRETTY GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A RATHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT DROPPING INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTH
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND EVEN SOME HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY AS USUAL WILL WIND DOWN
THROUGH THE LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT LESS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND PERHAPS TO SOME DEGREE STILL ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS IS A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO LOITER OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
BETWEEN SEMI REGULAR BACK DOOR FRONTS...THE NATURAL TENDENCY THIS
TIME OF YEAR FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALSO EASE IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND EAST AND OVERALL MOISTURE RECYCLING...WE SHOULD STILL SEE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO GENERATE A DECENT CROP OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVE. PLUS THERE STILL APPEARS
TO BE A WEAK MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE THAT ENTER AND CRUISE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER
THE UTTER LACK OF ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY ENTERING NM COMPARED TO
WHAT CHUGGED THROUGH CO OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS AND
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH OR NOT.
DECIDED ON THE LATTER MOSTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS...NOT
BUYING THE MODEST INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWN BY SOME OF
THE FCST MODELS FOR TODAY OVER SUN AS THERE IS ONLY A VERY MODEST
OR LARGELY LACKING CURRENT OR MODEL INDICATED MOISTURE IMPORTING
LOWER LVL FLOW SHOWING UP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY...STEERING
FLOW MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY COMPARED TO SUN AND ALSO
COULD FIND NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING AMIDST THOSE ENTERED INTO
OF REPORTS LOG. THIS IS NOT TO SAY BY ANY MEANS THAT VERY
LOCALIZED MINOR TO MODERATE FLASH FLOODING IS OUT OF THE QUESTION
TODAY...AND AS ALWAYS THE NEWER BURN SCARS WILL BE AT SOME RISK
WITH ANY DECENT SUMMERTIME STORM...BUT RATHER THE RISK SEEMS A
LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A WATCH...AT LEAST FOR THIS FCST
PACKAGE. BUT DO FEEL THAT IF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CAN SNEAK IN OR
STEERING FLOW WEAKENS MORE THAN EXPECTED...THAT IT MAY NEED TO BE
ADDRESSED WITH NEW MODEL INFO ON THE DAY SHIFT.

STILL LOOKING AT THE DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY TUE INTO WED...THOUGH N
CENTRAL AND NE LOCALES MAY SEE THINGS PICK UP A BIT LATER WED AFTN
OR EVE. MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE STILL LOOKS LIKE THU INTO FRI IF
NOT A BIT LONGER. THE TUE TO WED ACTIVITY DECLINE SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES OF AFTN WARMING FOR MOST SPOTS.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE AND RELATIVELY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH A SHORT LIVED DOWNTREND IN WETTING RAIN IS
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE MAINLY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT THROUGH PERIOD...WITH DAILY AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER UTAH WITH A FAIRLY
STRONG JET POSITIONED OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. A SURFACE WIND
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE WEAK UPSPLOPE TODAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASED ON SUNDAY BUT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TODAY...NEARING AN INCH MOST LOCATIONS AND HIGHER ACROSS
THE EAST. THUS...WETTING PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ADDITION TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATE TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER JET WILL USHER IN DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR...LIMITING CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ALL AREAS BUT
ESPECIALLY EAST. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH TERRAIN. MODEST TEMPERATURE INCREASES AND ASSOCIATED RH
DECREASES WILL RESULT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE...WITH AN UPTICK IN WETTING PRECIPITATION STARTING WEDNESDAY
WHEN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT OF STORMS. EXTENDED
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT WHILE THE EAST BECOMES LESS
ACTIVE ON THE WEEKEND...TERRAIN DOMINATED WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE.

VENTILATION WILL VARY FROM POOR TO VERY GOOD EACH DAY...WITH POOR
VENTILATION CENTRAL ZONES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. DECREASING VENTILATION RATES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ510>516-527>529.

&&

$$

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