Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 250931
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
331 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will generally trend downward today and especially
Tuesday as some better moisture arrives. An uptick in the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms will be noted today and especially
Tuesday, when a weak disturbance will pass just north of New
Mexico enhancing precipitation. A few storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rain at rates over 1 inch per hour both
days, mainly over western and northern parts of the state. Drier
air will move in during the middle to latter part of the week with
a downtick in thunderstorm coverage and rain intensity. Temperatures
should also trend upward again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper trough exiting the northern and central Rockies onto the
Great Plains Tuesday will shift the loosely organized mid-level
high pressure system NW of NM. The high is progged to vary its
position around the NV/UT/AZ border through Thursday or Friday
before potentially drifting eastward toward the Four Corners
again. Models aren`t very consistent on when or how far east the
high will drift. Thus, after PWATs peak from 1 to 1.25 inches
Tuesday, they will fall to the 0.5-0.75 inch range across central
and northwest areas during the mid to latter part of the week. The
decrease in moisture will be less noted across eastern areas,
where a back door cold front may arrive Wednesday. This front
could keep convection pretty active across the east for another
day, before it trends downward there, too. The southwest mountains
should be favored areas for showers and storms during the latter
half of the week as better moisture lingers longest there. At
this time, Thursday is looking like the warmest day of the week
with high temperatures around 3 to 14 degrees above normal.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Deeper moisture in place today and Tuesday is expected to create a
significant uptick in the coverage of slow-moving storms with heavy
rainfall. An east/northeast wind shift entering the eastern plains
today will help focus more widespread convection over the plains, as
well as trend temps down several degrees from the recent record heat.
The potential for flooding on recent burn scars will increase the
next 2 days compared to much of this season.

An unfortunate drying and warming trend will begin again over western
NM Wednesday as the center of the upper high rebuilds and focuses on
the Four Corners. A large dry airmass currently over the Great Basin
will move under this high and bring a return to very low min rh into
Friday. Dewpoint values may fall as low as the upper 20`s across San
Juan County Thursday. Storm coverage will mainly focus on the higher
terrain each day with much smaller heavy rainfall footprints through
Friday and perhaps even Saturday. Fortunately, no signficant winds
appear likely outside of erratic and gusty outflows.

The upper high is shown to drift east starting Saturday and Sunday as
a trough develops along the west coast. This could bring a return to
a more typical monsoon flow pattern over central and western NM for
much of next week. Models are however at odds with how far east the
upper high shifts. Given the overall tendency for the high center to
focus over NM this season will be conservative in advertising any
change to cooler temps and more widespread storm coverage for now.


Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Convection SH/TS starting to wind down across the forecast area.
Mainly light SH out there right now although cant rule out a
heavier SH during the overnight hours. Carrying some brief
gusts/SH at a few terminal sites through 7z/8z then lessening
impact. Another healthy crops of SH/TS expected during the
afternoon and evening on Mon. Will continue to use VCSH/VCTS as
placeholders for potential impact. Most if not all terminal sites
are expected to be impacted on Mon. Outflow wind gusts between 25
to 35 kt and brief vis restrictions due to heavy rain will be the
main affects. Slow moving storms tmrw.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  66  92  63 /  20  20  20  20
Dulce...........................  90  53  85  50 /  40  50  50  40
Cuba............................  91  58  85  56 /  50  50  50  50
Gallup..........................  92  60  88  58 /  30  40  40  30
El Morro........................  88  55  81  54 /  50  50  60  50
Grants..........................  90  58  86  56 /  40  40  50  40
Quemado.........................  87  59  84  58 /  50  40  60  50
Glenwood........................  95  65  94  65 /  50  40  50  30
Chama...........................  84  50  78  48 /  50  50  50  50
Los Alamos......................  86  61  83  59 /  40  50  50  50
Pecos...........................  87  58  84  57 /  50  50  50  60
Cerro/Questa....................  85  54  75  51 /  50  50  50  50
Red River.......................  77  47  68  45 /  60  60  60  60
Angel Fire......................  79  45  73  42 /  50  50  50  60
Taos............................  87  55  82  53 /  40  40  40  40
Mora............................  83  56  78  54 /  50  50  50  60
Espanola........................  93  63  87  61 /  30  40  30  40
Santa Fe........................  89  61  82  59 /  40  50  40  50
Santa Fe Airport................  92  63  87  61 /  30  40  20  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  66  88  65 /  30  40  30  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  68  91  68 /  30  40  20  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  68  94  68 /  20  30  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  68  93  67 /  30  40  20  40
Los Lunas.......................  96  68  93  67 /  20  30  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  95  68  92  67 /  30  40  30  40
Socorro.........................  97  69  95  69 /  20  30  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  62  84  62 /  40  50  30  50
Tijeras.........................  91  63  89  63 /  40  40  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  57  84  56 /  30  40  30  50
Clines Corners..................  87  60  83  59 /  30  40  30  50
Gran Quivira....................  90  62  86  62 /  20  30  40  50
Carrizozo.......................  92  65  91  65 /  20  20  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  84  59  84  58 /  30  30  40  50
Capulin.........................  85  58  84  57 /  40  40  40  40
Raton...........................  90  58  86  56 /  40  40  40  40
Springer........................  88  60  87  59 /  30  30  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  86  57  86  56 /  40  40  40  50
Clayton.........................  93  65  90  64 /  30  30  20  40
Roy.............................  90  62  87  61 /  30  40  20  40
Conchas.........................  95  68  92  68 /  30  40  20  40
Santa Rosa......................  97  66  94  67 /  20  40  20  40
Tucumcari.......................  99  68  96  67 /  30  30  20  50
Clovis..........................  96  68  90  67 /  20  30  20  40
Portales........................  97  69  90  69 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  97  69  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  99  72  99  71 /  10  20  20  20
Picacho.........................  94  66  91  65 /  20  20  20  30
Elk.............................  87  62  84  62 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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