Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 200514 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1014 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Decreased probability of precipitation for the remainder of tonight
in accordance with recent satellite and radar trends. Also decreased
coverage of patchy fog over the Four Corners, where it didn`t rain
much. And, increased coverage of low clouds on Monday morning across
the northwest.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...444 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Precipitation has largely become more showery across northern and
central New Mexico, and only some spotty/brief periods of reduced
visibility/ceilings in rain/snow are expected through early evening.
Wind gusts will mostly subside just after dusk and some clearing is
expected in many locales. The clearing in the mid levels could lead
to some ground fog or low stratus development in northwestern to
west central New Mexico around daybreak Monday. Some MVFR conditions
have been built into KFMN and KGUP TAFs, but confidence is not high
enough to go any lower than this. A clearing trend will continue into
Monday daytime.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Wetting precipitation will continue streaming west to east through
tonight as the upper level system crosses over the Four Corners. The
northern mountains will continue favoring snow as rain showers
persist across lower elevations. Look for all activity to lessen
overnight with potential patchy fog development across the northwest
mountains. Monday through Wednesday will be warm and dry with a
cooler...windier system impacting the state Thursday. Milder
conditions look to return the following Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
So far, snow showers have tapered down across western areas leading
to earlier cancellations of winter advisories for the SW and Chuska
Mtns...although some activity will continue with less accumulations.
Snow showers ramped up across the San Juan and Jemez Mtns leading to
winter advisories being placed for those areas through early Mon.
Meanwhile, central and western areas will see isolated to scattered
rain showers as the center of the upper level system moves over the
Four Corners region creating some instability. Anticipate some areas
of patchy fog to develop overnight into Monday morning across much
of the northwest mtns over recent saturated areas with help from
lessening clouds.

Upper level ridging will build over the state Mon with its ridge
axis centered over NM Tues before shifting eastward Wed. This pattern
will help temperatures rebound above normal followed by
strengthening SW-W winds aloft Wed and Thurs. Thurs will be the most
active day as strengthening shortwave activity leads to strong/high
wind impacts across much of central and eastern NM. Some rain/high
elevation snow look to favor northern NM Thurs afternoon.
Temperatures will cool below normal west of the central mtn chain
Thurs before cooler temperatures expand eastward Thurs night into
Fri. Fri will see less winds as mid to upper level flow aloft lessens
with gusty winds persisting across the eastern plains. Temperatures
will be below normal areawide Fri.

The following weekend will start off with a drier, milder period but
it looks to change by Sun into Sun night as another upper level
system dives across the region...cooling off temperatures again and
developing some wetting precipitation across western and northern
areas.

32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Pacific trough will finish its sweep over the area tonight. Some
residual rain and snow showers will affect northern
areas...otherwise drying trend will commence with ridging early in
the week. The ridge will gradually break down Wed to Fri and lead to
increased wind and increased fire weather growth conditions. Another
system passage is expected during the weekend with continued
increased wind favoring southern/eastern areas. Confidence is
building for a multi-day wind scenario.

Near term highlights include the Pacific trough passage rest of
today into night. Humidity values will be on the high
side...especially western half of the area overnight. Some wetting
moisture will affect NW and NC areas.

Warming and drying trend expected on Monday and Tuesday. Humidity
values will trend from the unusually high numbers today to more
normal readings on Monday. Similar readings on Tuesday although more
teen RH values across the east as temps soar to well above normal
values. Modeling does show some mid level dry slot impacts. Surface
wind will be locally gusty due to northwest flow on Monday and
remain locally gusty...especially along central mtns on Tue.
Ventilation rates will be widely variable next two days but
generally decent most areas.

The flow aloft will increase on Wednesday as the upper ridge begins
to break down. Models showing a decent mid level dry intrusion
moving over portions of the area as well. Decided to go a little
below model guidance for dewpoint temperature...thus RH forecast.
High temps will remain warmer than normal with ultra high values
across the eastern plains due to compressional downsloping impacts.
Based on wind...RH...departure from normal temp and mixing height
alignments...locally critical conditions show up in the gridded
forecast for portions of the NE plains/highlands. Not enough area to
consider a fire weather watch but will be closely looking at that
during the next couple of days.

Thursday still looks to be the most critical day in terms of
wind...instability and RH alignments. Fully expecting a fire weather
watch issuance during the next couple of days. Zones 104...108 and
to lesser extent southern 106 will be under the gun with this
downslope event. Based on the mixing height forecast and lack of
significant cloud cover across south/east decided to increase wind
speeds above model guidance numbers. Also lowered dewpoints a tad
below model guidance across the east thanks to efficient mechanical
mixing. Models have been showing this trend the past 3 to 4 days so
confidence is building for the event. Some cooling will occur across
the west with some precipitation possible near the CO border.

Friday represents a post cold frontal day with locally strong wind
and low RH showing up across portions of the EC and SE plains. High
temps look to be below normal most areas although suspect they will
be near normal across the EC and SE plains and may trend a little
warmer in the coming days. Ventilation will remain pretty good on
this day although lower from Thur values.

Unsettled weather in terms of some higher wind flow and
precipitation chances across west and northern areas will continue
during the weekend. The various models are a little different with
the main Pacific low translation on Sunday but suspect they will
come in drier as time goes forward. Either way...expecting another
round of stronger wind favoring Sunday at this time. Another
possible critical weather alignment period is shaping up on Sunday
favoring the EC and SE plains.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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