Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 161134 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
534 AM MDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Short term concerns lie in SAF where 6SM HZ currently being
reported. Believe that could be due to lingering prescribed burn
impacts from the Santa Fe Watershed and lower humidity recoveries
overnight/smoldering. Will go with a tempo 6SM FU to capture that
possibility the next few hrs. Otherwise...main impact during the
next 24 hrs will be wind. Gusts btwn 25 to 35 kt will be routine
at several terminal sites this afternoon. A strong Chinook
downslope wind and mtn wave event is shaping up for tonight
although terminal impacts are less likely. Perhaps at LVS
periodically between 6z to 12z. Later forecasts can update that
threat potential.



Dry and unusually warm conditions will persist into Monday with
high temperatures forecast to approach and in some cases exceed
record values, mainly across the eastern plains. Winds will be on
the uptrend as well, especially late tonight through Monday across
the Sangre De Cristo Mountains where a high wind warning is in
place for potentially damaging winds. Windy conditions will
prevail across much of east central and northeast New Mexico
Monday. A cooling trend will begin Tuesday with a weak front, but
will really kick in Wednesday with a stronger front. By Thursday,
daytime temperatures will be below normal across much of central
and eastern New Mexico. A warming trend will resume by late week
and into next weekend, with temperatures going back above normal
areawide and dry conditions persisting.


Another unusually warm day is on tap with plenty of sunshine and
increasing wind speeds as a strong jet stream continues to
penetrate further east and south into the southern Rockies and
deepens a lee side trough. New daily record high temperatures are
forecast at a number of eastern plains locales and near record
highs are forecast across portions of central New Mexico,
including the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros. Critical fire
weather conditions are expected across much of eastern New Mexico
today (see Fire Weather Discussion below for details).

Stronger winds aloft will continue to spread south into New Mexico
overnight into Monday, which will be the windiest day of the
forecast period. The high wind watch for the Sangres and Raton
Ridge has been upgraded to a warning, beginning at midnight
tonight and continuing into Monday evening. Wind advisories will
likely be required for Monday as well, mainly for the northeast
quarter and perhaps the Tusas Mountain zone. Despite decreasing
pressure heights and some cooling aloft, stronger downslope winds
on Monday will play a significant role in bringing highs across
eastern New Mexico back up to/near record values for one more
day. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across much of
eastern New Mexico once again Monday (see Fire Weather Discussion
below for details).

A weak front, mainly backdoor, will provide some cooling Tuesday
and start a trend that will last into Thursday thanks to a
stronger frontal passage on Wednesday. Highs on Thursday are
forecast to be below normal across much of the area for a change.
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the Desert
Southwest going into the end of the work week, with good agreement
from the 00z GFS and ECMWF on placement and pressure heights. The
upper high is forecast to shift east over New Mexico into Texas
and weaken through next weekend. This transition will start a
warming trend Friday that will bring temperatures back above
normal areawide next weekend. Dry conditions look to persist for
the foreseeable future with neither the 00z GFS or ECMWF offering
much hope for precipitation through 240hrs.



Main changes include adjusting Red Flag Warning today to an earlier
start time. Also will be upgrading Watch to Warning for the four
eastern zones Monday. Still looking at a strong Chinook like
wind/dry downslope scenario Sun night into Monday. Then some
modifications to the warm...dry and windy pattern Tue/Wed/Thu due to
a couple of cold frontal passages. They mainly look to be dry other
than some modifications to humidity. Warming/drying Friday and into
the weekend.

Continued to undercut model dewpoint guidance across the higher
terrain areas and areas to the lee of the central mtns through
Monday. Can already see the over bias from the models across SW
areas early this morning. Several hours of single digits expected NE
third the next couple of days...especially today. Excessive warmth
will also accompany the dryness with another round of near to record
high temps this afternoon and most likely Monday. Warm overnight
lows compared to normal Sunday night with some poorish recoveries
many areas...especially to the lee of the Sangre de Cristos. The
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos could experience spotty strong
wind/low humidity during the Sunday night/Monday morning period due
to a classic Chinook wind situation. The excessively strong winds
will be localized however due to the nature of the mountain wave
interaction with the topography as well as the placement of the
stable layer just off the surface. Always a bit tough to say exactly
where the waves will crash. Winds will increase areawide today and
remain breezy to windy to even very windy into Monday. Some cirrus
and mountain wave clouds will be found over portions of the forecast
area...especially to the lee of the and Monday but
enough sunshine should reach the ground. Haines values will be a bit
paltry with 4/5 values today and Monday and be accompanies with
lower range mixing heights but the excessive heat and dryness plus
cured or curing fuels should offset that. Critical fire growth
period upcoming the next 48 hours.

Tuesday through Thursday look to be transition days. The main
Pacific wave will slide over the central Rockies Mon night to Tue
night. A back door cold front will slide into the eastern plains Mon
night and bring cooler temperatures and higher humidity to that
area. Some breezes will remain across the north on Tue and expand on
Wednesday due to a double cold frontal passage. One front impacting
the eastern plains and the other across western/central areas. This
will set the stage for much cooler temperatures on Thursday. Below
normal high temps expected central and eastern areas on Thursday.
Humidity readings will also modify on Thursday. The GFS model
yesterday had showed some precipitation across the east on Thu but
it has trended drier like the other models. Thus confidence is
increasing that the main sensible weather impacts will be temp and
RH during this change period.

Models still show a ridge buildup over the SW area Fri with lasting
impacts into the following weekend. Some flattening of the ridge is
expected by late weekend however. Temps would warm while RH values
lower. Some breezes could return late weekend or early the
following week.

Ventilation will be changeable during the week. Initially higher
vent rates due to the stronger transport winds...despite the lower
mixing heights. Vent rates begin to lower due to the cold frontal
effects Tue through Thu. The upper ridge would most likely impact
vent rates in a not so good way Fri/Sat due to lower mixing heights
combined with lower transport wind. Some improvement expected by
early the following week.



Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-107-108.

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM MDT Monday for the
following zones... NMZ512>515-527.


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