Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 151754 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1054 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2017
18Z TAF CYCLE
Widespread significant impacts to aviation continue as rain, snow,
fog, and freezing rain shift across NM. IFR to LIFR conditions in
place over all of eastern NM with vsbys averaging 1/2SM to 1SM.
Farther west a well-defined of rain/snow is creating mainly MVFR
cigs and vsbys with occasional excursions to near IFR. The overall
scenario will remain unchanged thru tonight as the entire storm
system pivots slowly east toward TX. Rain will mix with a change
to snow tonight all areas along and north of I-40 with focus for
significant accumulations over the northern high terrain. Any area
that clears before sunrise will likely see fog and freezing fog.
Conditions expected to improve most areas outside the northern
high terrain Monday afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION...453 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2017...
Minor update to remove the dense fog wording from the ZFP for portions
of the southeast plains. Remainder of forecast on track.
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2017...
An upper level storm system south of the bootheel will continue to
bring widespread valley rain and significant mountain snow to the
region today and tonight. A trailing system will result in
scattered rain and snow showers Monday, Monday night and possibly
into Tuesday. A break in between storms remains on track for
Wednesday before another system moves in Thursday night and
Friday. Yet another Pacific storm is expected for next weekend.
Upper level closed low centered near Hermosillo early this
morning. Snow levels near the 7500 ft level with periods of heavy
snow falling above 8000 feet. Models continue to lift the low
newd today and tonight but slightly farther east than previous
runs. This would act to limit the wrap-around precip amounts
somewhat tonight but all models continue with a clear deformation
zone across the northern half or so of the state. This atmospheric stretching
will act to keep low elevation rain and high elevation snow going
tonight. Snow levels fall somewhat overnight, to around 6000 feet
or so as cold air aloft associated with the low center moves over.
Santa Fe metro along with Taos area could pick up an inch or two
of snow on vegetated surfaces tonight. Left winter storm warning
as is with no additional areas to add. Snow accumulation in the
6000-7000 elevation range is expected to have little impact on
area roadways overnight. Light freezing rain will continue to be a
concern across the northeast plains through the morning hours so
will leave that advisory as is.
Trailing short-wave trough expected on Monday takes a similar
path to the now exiting closed low. This feature results in more
deformation (stretching) across the northern half or so of the
state and with residual moisture in place and a cold poos aloft,
scattered low elevation rain and high elevation snow showers
result Monday and Monday night. Several inches of accumulation is
possible mainly across the northern mountains Monday afternoon.
ECMWF, and to some extent the GFS, develop an elongated closed low
over NM Tuesday, possibly resulting in isolated snow showers
mainly over the mountains Tuesday afternoon.
A break in between systems is anticipated Wednesday through the
day Thursday before the next short-wave trough moves in from the
west Thursday night and Friday. Both the GFS and ECMWF remain
progressive with this wave as it moves rapidly east through NM
Friday. A deeper and colder trough remains in the cards for next
A widespread wetting event is well underway, with relatively high
snow levels for mid January. Lower elevation rain and higher terrain
snow will be the rule today, with lowering snow levels this evening
into Monday morning. A trailing trough will keep chances for wetting
precipitation going through Monday with high relative humidity. Vent
rates will be poor to fair and are not forecast to improve until
late in the work week.
A drying/warming trend will begin Tuesday, with daytime temperatures
reaching up to near normal by Wednesday as a ridge moves in behind
the slowly departing trough. The synoptic pattern will transition by
the end of the week to a progressive wave train as the jet stream
dives into the Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies. Look for a
cooling/moistening trend with stronger winds to begin Friday and
continue through next weekend as a series of progressively colder
troughs impact the state.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM MST Monday for the following
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM MST Monday for the following