Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 021800 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1100 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Weather conditions have already deteriorated somewhat across north
central, ne and east central sections of the state where some
patchy MVFR and even close to IFR CIGS have developed along with
bands of light to moderate SN. Conditions will deteriorate further
across mainly the se half to two thirds of the fcst area between
about 22Z and 06Z with lowering cigs into the MVFR and patchy
IFR, even LIFR, category. Expect also development of SN/RA and
perhaps even some form of mixed precip such as IP and perhaps even
FZRA. The mixed precip is a little more likely at TCC than ROW,
the latter of which should remain mostly RA. Confidence still a
little too low to include mixed precip at TCC however and for now
opted more for SN than anything else. LVS is expected to be
largely -SN. ABQ and AEG expected to be largely rain/snow shadowed
due to locally brisk easterly winds which, at ABQ, will likely
gust between 25 and 30 KTS until near or not long after midnight.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST Fri Dec 2 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Weather pattern to change today as an upper low develops to our
southwest drawing moisture over the region, while inducing an east
wind into central and southern New Mexico. Precipitation is
expected to develop today over the north and east then shift
to the south and east later tonight and Saturday. A wintry
mix of precipitation is possible over portions of the east with
mostly snow over the higher terrain elsewhere. Precipitation will
taper off on Sunday. A windier and drier system is expected Tuesday
but will send another surge of cold air into the state. Additional
unsettled weather expected for late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Still much uncertainty with some precip types associated with the
incoming system. Went ahead with winter wx advisories for portions
of the east central and southeast as well as the south central mts
and south central highlands although the higher terrain may pick up
warning amounts. Left out Chaves county plains although grids have
some advisory type snow amounts over the northern and western
portions. Same for the southwest mountains where the eastern side of
the zone could pick up advisory amounts but not so much the western
side. Some other areas may be marginal for advisories as well so
incoming shifts will definitely have to re-evaluate.

High temperatures to remain below average through Sunday and into
Monday although trend a bit warmer from north to south Sunday into
Monday as the upper low system exits. Another windy and drier system
to brush the north and east Tuesday, with another surge of cold air.
ECMWF remains more bullish on more widespread precipitation so will
have to monitor this trend as well. Lowered min temp forecasts out
in the extended.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unsettled weather pattern will continue during the next several
days. Highly confidence for a near term system later today through
Saturday evening favoring the southern tier. Another system for the
middle of next week has waffled around a bit with some model
differences. The third system is projected for late next week into
the weekend.

Not a lot of big changes to the gridded forecast during the near
term. A system diving down from the northern Rockies will combine
with an easterly cool push to provide the combination of low
elevation rain and snow during the next 24 to 48 hours favoring
southern portions of the area. Some wetting precipitation is
definitely expected with this system. High temps will be unusually
cool for this time of year with readings 5 to 15 degrees below
normal.

The system will push off to the east late weekend into Monday of
next week. Humidity values will lower slightly but remain elevated.
Temperatures will rise but generally remain near to below normal
most areas. Mixing heights will be on the lower side and lead to a
fair bit of poor ventilation favoring Sunday. Transport winds are
predicted to increase on Monday thus leading to a myriad of
ventilation ratings across the forecast area. The increase in wind
is ahead of the second storm system.

The second storm system is expected to impact the area Tue/Wed.
Models have jumped around a bit with this system but it is looking
more and more likely that stronger winds would be associated with
it. Hedged wind speeds above model guidance levels for the southern
half or so to account for this possibility. The track of the system
will certainly determine who receives the strongest speeds. Either
way...vent rates will climb during this period...especially Tues.
Precipitation would mainly be relegated to the northern tier but if
the system were to track further south like the Canadian and
European models are showing...then better odds of wetting precip
across the north and perhaps central areas.

Ventilation ratings would take a hit Thu due to some shortwave
ridging with another system possible Fri/Sat. Initial indications
show a stronger wind scenario but the Pacific trough passage could
end up digging further south. Will be monitoring.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MST Sunday
for the following zones... NMZ524>526-533>537-539-540.

&&

$$


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