Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 232338 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
438 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SW
WINDS AT KLVS AND KTCC BY AFTERNOON.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. SINGLE
DIGITS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SNOW LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN TO
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHO WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES TO ACCUMULATE IT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY
HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS...WITH
MOST AREAS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS REMAIN ON TARGET THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCAO GUSTING TO 51KTS.
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT WINDS WILL NOT DIMINISH BELOW
WARNING/ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 4PM DESPITE MOS VALUES SINCE THE RUC
SHOWS BETTER THAN 50KT AT 700 MB THRU 03Z AND A PRETTY STRONG SFC
GRADIENT CONTINUING. NONETHELESS...WITH LET THE NPW EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AND MENTION ANY CONTINUING STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
WITH NOWS.

OTHERWISE A QUIET BUT VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE. MOST CLEAR SKIES AND
EVENTUAL LIGHT WINDS...PLUS SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME LOCALES WILL
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH FOG
TONIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN...PERHAPS IN THE MORENO
VALLEY OR VERY LOCALIZED LOCALES ACROSS THE EAST/NE.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING. KEPT TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND STILL...THOUGH ALL AREAS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES SHY
OF NORMAL.

THE CHRISTMAS DAY AND DAY AFTER STORM SYSTEM IS LOOKING MORE AND
MORE INTERESTING WITH EACH MODEL RUN...AND INTER-MODEL CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. THE GFS AND AT LEAST THE LAST FEW PERIODS
OF THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NM LATE CHRISTMAS AND ON FRIDAY. THEN
ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDES DOWN IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND ANOTHER
TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THIS OPTION RESULTS IN A DRY
SLOT BISECTING THE STATE LATE THUR/FRI AFTER AN INITIAL LIGHT BAND
OF SHOWERS SLIDES FROM NW TO SE. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND CMC ARE
SHOWING THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW SLOWING DOWN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THURS/FRI BEFORE FINALLY MOVING ACROSS SAT ALSO WITH
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. THIS OPTION
ALLOWS A BACK DOOR FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY.
BETWEEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE FRONT AND THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW...MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE BAND OF
SHOWERS THAT THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NM. HAVE
NUDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS TRENDING A
BIT DEEPER WITH ITS TROUGH...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY
BEFORE INCREASING POPS MUCH MORE.

ASIDE FROM POPS...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GET MUCH COLDER. AFTER A
BEAUTIFUL CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS
MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY EAST...TEMPS WILL PLUMMET ON FRIDAY AND
STAY COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IF NOT EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY MAY
BE THE COLDEST...WITH TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE DEC NORMALS
FOR ALL AREAS.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDY BUT COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LOWER DEWPOINTS RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PCT.

LIGHTER WIND FLOW ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATION RIDGETOP
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND AREAS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST. SOME TEEN RH VALUES SHOULD SHOW UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS. VENTILATION WILL LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES IN. THE STRENGTHENING WIND
FLOW WOULD COINCIDE WITH NEAR 15 PCT HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. HAINES 5 VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
LIMITED OVER ROOSEVELT COUNTY ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 7 DEGREES. SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING IN
TERMS OF 1 TO 2 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWTH CONDITIONS.
VENTILATION WILL TREND UP ACCORDINGLY. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT WETTING MOISTURE SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND FAVOR THE NC
MTNS. MODELS DO VARY SOMEWHAT ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION MAKING
FOR A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS FOLLOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. PERHAPS SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. COOLER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SURE. DESPITE THE SURFACE
COOLNESS...THE AIRMASS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE COOL SO MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THUS VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY GOOD.

A SECONDARY TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGHS DURING THIS PERIOD. HUMIDITY VALUES OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PCT.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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