Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 211759 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. A BAND OF SH/TS WILL IMPACT TCC/LVS
BETWEEN 19Z TO 21Z OTHERWISE MAINLY LOOKING AT -RA. CENTRAL AREAS
WILL SEE IFR/MVFR CIGS BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD OR LONG IN DURATION
COMPARED TO THE EAST. AEG/ABQ/SAF WILL BE IMPACTED AND EXPECTING
IMPACT DUE TO PASSING SH/TS AS WELL. MAIN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. GUP/FMN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
BATTLE ZONE BTWN THE HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR TO
THE WEST. SH/TS WILL DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THESE
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT.
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SH AT FMN WELL INTO THE EVENING. TERMINAL
FCSTS WILL BE PRETTY DYNAMIC AND EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HRS. MODELS SHOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST BY
MID MORNING FRI BUT THINK THAT IS A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...407 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015...
...CORRECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL AND CLOUDY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEW MEXICO WHERE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO...SOME PATCHES OF SUNSHINE WILL BE
SEEN TODAY...BUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES FROM THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA INTO NEW MEXICO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NAMELY THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO RUN BELOW AVERAGE BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR BELOW NORMAL
AS IN THE EAST. THE DRYLINE...OR SURFACE BOUNDARY SEPARATING
MOISTURE IN THE EAST FROM DRY AIR IN THE WEST...WILL BE ACTIVE IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP. A FEW
OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN THE FAR NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN
TIERS OF THE STATE INTO SUNDAY...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE FEW IN
NUMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE GULF OF CA TODAY WHILE
THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IN THE EASTERN HALF ON NM KEEPS THINGS
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. WHILE POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT FAIRLY HIGH IN THE EAST TODAY...AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO LIGHT STATE OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
TODAY. THUS FAR...NO DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT EXPECT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO HANG ON FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE PAINTING A HEALTHY SWATH OF
INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH
LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -5 C IN SOME AREAS...THUS A FEW CLUSTERS
OF STORMS SHOULD TRANSPIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS THE 90-100KT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE NOSES INTO NM. THIS WILL SPREAD A GENEROUS SLUG OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INTO THE STATE. HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO REFLECT THIS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NOTABLY INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY SLOT ALOFT
WORKING INTO NM. THIS WILL STEER THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP TO
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TIERS OF NM WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY
SHARPENING UP AS IT PROGRESSES EAST TOWARD THE TX BORDER. THE NAM
IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRY SLOT ALOFT AND THUS THE
PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE TOWARD THE TX BORDER IS MUCH FASTER. BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSTREAM PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL BE
WORKING OVER SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN NV.

AS THIS UPPER LOW EXITS INTO UT/CO SATURDAY...DRY AIR ALOFT
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN NM.
BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT WOULD BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...BUT
STILL MOISTURE WOULD BE MEAGER AND DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE MUCH
WETTING PRECIPITATION. THE DRYLINE SHOULD ALSO STAY ANCHORED CLOSE
TO THE TX BORDER...SO ONLY SOME SCATTERED POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.

A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EXITING NM BY EARLY SUNDAY BUT
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD HOLD ON OVER THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN BORDERS OF THE STATE WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NV. THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DOES LOOK TO TRACK OVER NM...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH BETTER
DEFINED WITH IT VERSUS THE ECMWF MODEL. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE WILL CERTAINLY DICTATE HOW MUCH DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY MEAGER AT THAT POINT.

FORECAST MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH AND GENERAL DEFINITION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BEYOND
THIS. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE STORM TRACK FROM THE
PACIFIC WOULD BE CLOSE AT HAND WITH MOISTURE INTRUSIONS VIA
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF ALSO EASILY ATTAINABLE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WEST TO FARMINGTON...THEN
BENDS BACK TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NEAR GRANTS. A MOIST
FRONTAL LAYER IS RESULTING IN EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY CENTRAL
AND EAST...AND GENERALLY GOOD TO FAIR WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. TODAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
EAST...BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL WEST...THOUGH
STILL BELOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR DECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN GRANTS...CUBA AND CHAMA. THE AIRMASS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDER...BUT SPOTTY WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THERE.
OTHERWISE...WE`LL NEED TO WAIT FOR THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY AND THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY BEFORE
SEEING MORE CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND WETTING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. FRIDAY WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER OVERALL
COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXCEEDING
CRITICAL THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AS A PACIFIC DRY SLOT WORKS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA.

THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INVOLVES A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGHING
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION HERE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PERSISTING BELOW NORMAL.
CRITICAL HUMIDITY MAY SHOW UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL...BUT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

A WEAKER...BUT DISTURBED...WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN FORECAST BY BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AROUND MID WEEK.
SO...MINIMAL CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
RENEWED CHANCES MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOW AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...DECENT FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN RELATIVELY NORMAL PRESSURE
HEIGHTS ALOFT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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