Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 242350 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
550 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Low clouds lifting and dissipating across the east this evening.
However, showers and thunderstorms will likely form across the east
during the night along with low clouds and some fog. MVFR to VFR
CIGS and VSBYS for KLVS, KTCC and KROW...maybe KSAF. VFR elsewhere.
Tempo group for showers this evening in KSAF and KLVS this evening.
Not enough confidence yet to put in KTCC or KROW. Very active Sunday
with widespread SHRA and TSRA resulting in brief MVFR to IFR CIGS
and VSBYS. Locally heavy rain.


.PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017...
An active weekend thanks to the potent back door front that worked
its way all the way west across NM last night and this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread by the evening and
should continue well into the night. A few of the storms will be
severe. Even more active Sunday, with the most coverage and greatest
threat for severe weather. Monday will be almost as active.

The upper high centered over northern Sonora will drift southwest to
Baja, CA this weekend and early next week. Meanwhile short wave
troughs going by to our north will carve out westerly flow across
NM as we go through next week, bringing a drying and warming trend
back to the state. A back door cold front late in the week could
bring a return o more moist conditions again next weekend, at least
in the east.


And we are off! Storms firing over the west central and southwest
mountains with a severe storm in northeast Catron the
middle of no where. The northwest has mixed out with hot and dry
conditions for Gallup and Farmington again today. But cooler and
more moist air exists elsewhere with widespread showers and
thunderstorms forming through the afternoon and evening from the
western mountains toward the eastern plains. A few storms will be
severe. The east remains a mystery for tonight with most models
generating a wave or two of showers and storms in the northeast
and east central zones. Some even generate an impressive CMS over the
northeast that drifts south through the late night into Sunday
morning generating copious amounts of rain. Still pretty stable over
the east owing to stubborn low clouds. They are thinning though, and
feel the east will destabilize this evening, so have increased POPS
over the northeast and east central plains for tonight. Hard to argue
with 7 or 8 models all showing the same scenario.

Most active day with the best shot at severe storms will be Sunday
for all but the far northwest, which will remain hot and dry. With
northwest flow aloft and southeast winds at the surface, plenty of
shear will exist to help create long lived storms. Lots of low and
mid level moisture and a very unstable atmosphere will also support
widespread convection with heavy rain, large hail and potentially
damaging wind gusts the main threats.

Monday will be similar to Sunday, but probably not quite as active.
A noticeable drying and warming trend will follow for Tuesday and
Wednesday, with Thursday and Friday dry and hot again.

Models head in different directions after that. GFS and ECMWF do
both have a back door front into the east Friday night with cooler
and wetter conditions possible next weekend in the east. The GFS then
builds a ridge of high pressure centered over over AZ/NM border with
dry and warm conditions heading toward the 4th of July. Meanwhile
the ECMWF has the high over southeast TX. And you know what means
this time of year? Yes, monsoon moisture into the desert southwest!
The bulk of it looks to invade AZ, aided by a weak closed low off
Baja, CA. We are talking 8 to 10 days away though, and much could
change. So, stay tuned!



Humidities will continue to trend upward through Sunday as a moist
low level flow persists out of the southeast. The cool airmass
behind last evening`s back door cold front will modify/warm,
allowing greater instability to develop. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday as cells develop over
the mountains then spread southeastward across the lower elevations
including much of the eastern plains. A few strong to severe storms
are again expected Sunday afternoon and night. Most of the area
along and east of the central mountain chain, as well as the
southwest mountains, stands a good chance of wetting precipitation
Sunday afternoon and night as a shortwave trough in northwest flow
aloft organizes storms into clusters and lines.  Parts of the east
could see around 1 inch of precipitation. Wetting precip will be
spottier in the central valley, and as far northwest as the
continental divide.

Humidities will then trend downward Monday, and especially Tuesday
and Wednesday, as the low level flow gradually veers out of the
south and eventually the west in response to an upper level trough
crossing the northern and central Rockies. Thunderstorm coverage
will trend downward as well, especially Tuesday when storms should
favor the north central and southwest mountains, and Wednesday which
looks dry. The trough passing north of NM will strengthen the flow
aloft and work with a stout surface trough in the lee of the Sangre
de Cristo Range to make surface winds breezy on Tuesday, and to a
lesser extent Wednesday, across the west central and northwest
plateau, as well as the northeast and east central plains.
Humidities will bottom out near and below 10% across northwest areas
Tuesday, and across most of the fire weather forecast area on
Wednesday.  Northwest, north central and central parts of the
forecast area will also have poor humidity recoveries Tuesday night
through Thursday night. These dry conditions will then persist until
a moist back door cold front pushes into the eastern plains on
Friday. Haines indices will reflect the drier conditions with mostly
values of 6 across northwest areas Tuesday, then also much of the
east Wednesday and Thursday.  Some locally critical fire weather
conditions are forecast west of the continental divide on Tuesday,
and east of the central mountains Wednesday.





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