Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 311347 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
747 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO...WE
RECONSIDERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. FURTHER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD SOME RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO PLACES LIKE THE WHITE WATER BALDY BURN SCAR SHOULD
PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF THE RIO CHAMA...AND
ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANTA
FE AREA...TOO. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SINCE THEY ARE STARTING
OFF WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WESTERN STORMS SHOULD ALSO BENEFIT FROM
SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING FROM YESTERDAYS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST...THE UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED
LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SLOW
THE START OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO AGREE ON SOME QPF BULLS EYES HERE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...APPARENTLY KEYING ON SOME LATE DAY HEATING
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER CO.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...604 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BKN-
OVC002-008 FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KSRR. AS THESE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODE...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN CENTRAL ZONES
BUT SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BY 22Z TO 00Z
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO CENTRAL ZONES AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY TO LAST PAST 06Z TO 09Z ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ504-506>508-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

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