000
FXUS65 KABQ 281623 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1023 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
OUR WESTERN ZONES. ALSO INCREASED/TWEAKED POPS/QPF FOR TONIGHT
GIVEN THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE LATCHED ONTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING SWINGING NNE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH THROUGH TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION LATER THIS EVENING OUT
WEST...WHICH WOULD PROPAGATE NE ACROSS MUCH OF NW NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THIS ALL IN AN
ATMOSPHERE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS FOR LATE JULY. A LATER START IS
EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THIS MORNING`S CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS STILL IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...746 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
INCLUDED THE CHUSKA MOUNTAIN ZONE IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THE ASSAYII BURN SCAR WHERE THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE EQUALLY AS HIGH AS OTHER AREAS. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING WAS 1.13 INCHES
OR ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IT IS THE HIGHEST VALUE SINCE JULY
16TH AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. QUICK CHECK AT THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS THE AREA OF
SHOWERS REACHING THE ABQ METRO BETWEEN 8-9AM. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS COULD DELAY STRONG HEATING /UNLIKE YESTERDAY/
FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...602 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECTING CEILING OF BKN030 ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXTREME NORTHEAST
INCLUDING KCAO THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS
THEY DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HOWEVER...AFTER SOME BRIEF MID DAY CLEARING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WEST...CENTRAL
HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE TO HEAVY AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO BECOME ACTIVE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...410 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH ENHANCED COVERAGE OVER THE
GILA REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. YET ANOTHER SOUTHWARD-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BOOST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY...THEN MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE DRIER AIR
SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INVERTED TROUGH THAT APPROACHED THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE MADE THE PIVOT NORTH...AND IS BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO SC/SW ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING ON ITS FAVORED EAST FLANK. ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR FENCE LAKE/QUEMADO SEWD TO
DUNKEN IS SLOWLY FILLING IN AND LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS THAT IS LOOSELY ALIGNED FROM NW TO SE
OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM. LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS NOW DISPLACED WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.

AMONG CHALLENGES NEXT 24 HOURS  WILL BE GAUGING HOW QUICKLY AIR
MASS RECOVERY TAKES PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER...AND HOW MANY WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TO
PLACE UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FOCUS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL
BE ON THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MODELS GENERALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD
NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER THOUGH LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED WATER VAPOR LOOP
THIS FEATURE MAY BE TRACKING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN WHAT MODELS
SUGGEST. ADDITIONALLY... LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD IN A
BROAD UPSLOPE PATTERN THAT WILL ESPECIALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL...THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD DEFLATE SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE NW-SE RIDGE AXIS
BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE FAR MORE ERRATIC BUT DO NOT SEE AS MUCH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER WAVE NEAR THE AZ LINE.

DECIDED TO RE-POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH
AIR MASS RECOVERY MAY DELAY THINGS THERE TILL LATE. WILL INCLUDE
MOST OF THE BURN SCARS IN THE WATCH AS WELL...AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT REEVALUATE TRENDS WITH POSSIBLE EXPANSION FOR SOME AREAS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AREAS
FROM CLINES CORNERS AND ENCINO TO CORONA LOOK PRIMED...AS DOES
THE UPPER GILA AND WC MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TUE PM INTO WED
PM... RECHARGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH
THAT BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN.  KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. WETTING RAINS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BURN SCAR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE MONSOON PLUME TO
NUDGE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR
TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME RELATIVELY LARGE FOOTPRINTS. FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. RH RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST...
THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL SEE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS
ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO
REFLECT THIS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH MOVES WEST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AND EXTENDED
MODELS KEEP IT THERE THOUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL...MOIST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT ON SATURDAY.
THUS... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>515-526>532.

&&

$$

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