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FXUS65 KABQ 180417 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1017 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Expired Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486. Isolated severe thundestorms
will continue to be possible across the east central plains and
southern parts of the northeast plains until 1 am or so.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...533 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Current round of showers and storms will persist into the evening
hours before diminishing. Terminals most likely to be impacted by
storms are KLVS, KSAF and KTCC and generally in that order.
Strong/erratic wind gusts to near 40kts will be the most likely
impact, with low probability of MVFR conditions. MVFR cigs may
develop at KTCC overnight, but forecast confidence too low to include
in TAF. Otherwise, storms will trend down significantly Monday
afternoon, with gusty southwest winds forecast.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front has backed into northeastern New Mexico, and has
led to scattered storms developing over the eastern plains of the
state. Some of the storms have turned strong to severe, and are
expected to continue into the early evening. Most storms are expected
to diminish by midnight with some low clouds redeveloping over
northeastern New Mexico through Monday morning. Less moisture and
instability will be available for storms on Monday, limiting storms
with just a few stray cells possible in the southeastern third of the
state. Thereafter, a drying trend is expected Tuesday and Wednesday
with temperatures running near normal in western and central parts of
New Mexico and readings climbing slightly above average in the
eastern sections of the state. Precipitation chances will then begin
increasing Wednesday night into the remainder of the week as a deep
trough of low pressure closes in on the Land of Enchantment.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather is in progress over New Mexico with a relative weak
long wave trough over the western U.S. and a couple of smaller scale
embedded short waves lifting east northeastward into AZ and the Four
Corners. This is providing large scale ascent that has assisted
shower/storm development since this morning. In addition, the cold
front invaded the northeastern quadrant of NM, providing a boost in
moisture and consequently fueling the area with steeper temperature
lapse rates, higher CAPE, and more significant bulk shear in the form
of veering wind profiles.

Storms have exploited these parameters with a crop of few severe
cells. Hail and gusty downburst winds will be the primary threat
through the early evening. The HRRR model, which has seemed to
outperform other synoptic models with convection lately, carries the
best axis of instability eastward in quick fashion and takes storms
into TX/OK before sunset. This seems reasonable, but the HRRR
redevelops additional storms over northeastern NM through the late
evening, likely forced by short wave energy aloft rolling off of the
Sangre de Cristos. This will need to be monitored through the evening
hours, but scattered coverage has been left in the POP forecast
through midnight.

Into Monday, the flow aloft becomes a bit less perturbed and weakens
some while retaining a westerly component. Moisture will decrease
some, as will temperature lapse rates/instability. This should limit
storm coverage significantly, however given the recent poor
performance with synoptic modeling of convection in NM, have opted to
leave some isolated storms in roughly the southeastern third of the
state. Temperatures will run near to slightly above average.

The drying trend persists into Tuesday and through the daytime
Wednesday with PWATs falling back too low to support storm
development. Temperature lapse rates will also lessen through this
stretch, inhibiting storms. Surface temperatures should remain near
to slightly above average on Tuesday, but should fall back a few
degrees into Wednesday.

Unsettled weather will then unfold Wednesday night into the remainder
of the week as a deep long wave trough carves itself over the western
U.S. drawing moisture into the NM plains from the south southeast and
generating dynamics into some central to western portions of the
state.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday...

Scattered storms have fired off over the central and northern mtns
and are quickly moving to the NE. The backdoor front slid down the
eastern plains reaching as far as Clovis and the east slopes of the
central mtn chain. Increased instability behind the front, CAPE
values 2000-2700 J/kg with 0-6km shear up to 40-50 kts has prompted
a slight risk of severe storms over the eastern plains through the
evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing gusts up to 60kts
and large hail. Garden variety isold to scattered storms will be
present west of the ctrl mtns, still capable of producing gusty
erratic winds up to 40kts.

Monday could see lingering moisture across the E with some morning
low clouds and fog possible over the NE plains. Drier westerly flow
will continue to mix down over the west, and begin to erode moisture
across the east later in the afternoon. MinRH`s over the NW plateau
will fall to the teens, however winds will be the limiting factor
for any critical fire weather. Tuesday will see the dryness expand
further east with stronger winds as an upper trough moves over the
northern Rockies. Several hours of critical fire weather are likely
across the west and eastern plains, the majority of zone 104 and
much of zones 105 and 108. The one limiting factor at the moment is
remaining decent soil moisture still being observed on the NASA
SPoRT imagery. With today`s expected additional rainfall across the
east, soil moisture should be even further improved. MixHgts will be
a bit lower across the NE where Haines 5 and fair ventrates will
also exist.

Another weak backdoor bdry is still forecast to pass into far NE New
Mexico Wednesday, keeping MixHgts lower, with Haines 5, and pockets
of bad to fair Ventrates. With the pressure gradient lessening as
the aforementioned trough moves away, winds will be lighter, with
only a small improvement in MinRHs as MaxT`s fall closer to normal.

Southerly return flow will improve moisture across the east and
central areas Thursday as another strong trough moves into the
Pacific NW. This will help improve sfc moisture helping to spark
afternoon scattered convection Thursday and into the weekend with
storm coverage being limited more to eastern NM by the weekend. SW
breezy winds pick up ahead of the trough Thursday and Friday.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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