Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 182226
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KGUP-KGNT-KONM-KSRR-KROW LINE...TO INCLUDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MT OBSCURATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW NEAR/ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING MVFR/PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD REACH KGUP
BEFORE NOON...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INCLUDED A VC PLACEHOLDER AT KFMN FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
ABQ AREA AIRFIELDS FOR LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ON
FRINGES OF THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. FEWER AND MORE
LIMITED IMPACTS FOR NC AREAS OF THE STATE THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. EXPECT
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
KFMN AND KGUP AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AT KTCC AND CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY EVENING. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  40  21  45 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  11  38   9  41 /  10   0   0   5
CUBA............................  15  37  11  40 /  10   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  15  41  16  45 /  20   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  16  37  15  40 /  30   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  14  41  13  47 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  21  38  19  38 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  26  52  26  55 /  40   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   7  36   8  42 /  20   5   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  22  39  20  43 /  10   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  19  38  19  39 /  20   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   9  35   5  35 /  10   5   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  12  31   4  33 /  20   5   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................   4  36   2  38 /  20   5   5   0
TAOS............................  13  37   9  39 /  10   5   0   0
MORA............................  17  40  16  43 /  10   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  16  41  13  42 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  22  37  21  40 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  20  40  20  43 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  24  42  24  44 /  20   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  44  27  46 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  21  46  21  47 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  22  45  22  47 /  10   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  23  47  21  46 /  10   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  27  44  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  26  49  24  51 /  30   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  20  38  19  41 /  20   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  25  41  23  43 /  20   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  18  43  18  45 /  20   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  20  40  20  43 /  40   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  44  24  44 /  40   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  25  48  24  51 /  50   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  21  45  24  49 /  60   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  42  14  46 /  10   5   5   0
RATON...........................  15  44  15  49 /  10   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  19  48  18  50 /  10   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  17  44  18  49 /  10   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  24  48  25  50 /  10   5   5   0
ROY.............................  22  48  22  49 /  10   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  27  51  26  52 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  28  51  27  54 /  10   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  26  50  23  55 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  29  51  26  56 /  30  10   5   0
PORTALES........................  31  53  26  57 /  40  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  29  53  26  55 /  20   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  31  56  26  57 /  50   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  30  53  27  54 /  50   5   0   0
ELK.............................  28  51  26  52 /  60   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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