Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 251126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Patches of MVFR cigs will persist this morning across far western
portions of New Mexico with some mountain obscurations. Otherwise,
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist outside of
scattered showers and storms later today. Short-lived MVFR conditions
are likely with the stronger storms later today, which will move
toward the east or northeast.



.PREV DISCUSSION...308 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017...
Monsoonal moisture will remain in place for the next several days
although coverage and intensity of the storms will increase starting
later Wednesday and continue through the end of the week. Heavy
rainfall is expected and could lead to flash flooding. Drier and a
bit more stable air is likely to impact portions of the area,
especially southeast areas, during the weekend while northern areas
remain soggy. High temperatures are expected to be near to slightly
below normal during the rest of the week into the weekend. An active
weather pattern in terms of wetting thunderstorms is expected to
impact the entire area early next week.


Not a lot of big changes. Models remain steadfast with the drier
period today with increasing chances later Wednesday and lasting
through Friday.

Steering flow for the storms will turn more southwesterly today as
the upper high consolidates to the east of the state. The change in
steering flow will open more eastern areas to thunderstorm chances
today into tonight.

All eyes will be on Wednesday night through Friday as a back door
cold front dives south and westward. The front will be the catalyst
for heavier showers and thunderstorms and help keep column
atmospheric moisture on the high side. The east slopes of the central
mtns and eastern plains will initially be favored but then trend
westward Thursday and Friday. Models showing a very clear mid level
deformation area over the forecast area Thursday with residual
impacts into Friday. The upcoming modeled pattern (cold frontal
boundary and mid level deformation) represents a couple of the
classic weather patterns for a heavy Monsoonal rain period. Wont
issue a flash flood watch on this shift but suspect it will be
coming in subsequent shifts.

The mid level deformation zone is expected to shift further north and
favor the heavier rains across the northern tier of the state during
the weekend. Both the ECMWF and GFS show a mid level dry intrusion
penetrating south central and southeast areas during the same period
thus lowering convection chances.

Another back door cold front will be possible early next week and
potentially set up another active weather period.



A high PWAT atmosphere continues across the state with good to
excellent humidity recovery areawide. High pressure in the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere will strengthen over the area today
and be centered over southeast NM and the TX Panhandle. Storm motion
will change a bit and be more toward the E-NE later today, allowing
some locales to pick up some wetting rain that missed-out the past
couple of days. Some slight drying/warming is forecast going into
Wednesday as the upper high strengthens to near 595dam at 500mb and
centers over the state. The westward progression of the upper high
center will allow a weak backdoor front to slide down the front
range into the Eastern Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday,
enhancing chances for wetting rain across much of eastern NM and
providing some cooling. Outflow from storms to the east will
recharge moisture across central and western NM late Thursday into
Friday and send PWATs well above normal to the highest values so far
this calendar year. This moisture-loaded atmosphere will yield
daytime temperatures generally below normal and good chances for
soaking rains going into the weekend as the upper high backs off to
just north of the Four Corners.

The latest medium range model solutions show the dominant upper high
center over northern Nevada early next week, with the potential for
weak backdoor fronts and/or outflow to drop down out of Colorado
allow an active/wet thunderstorm pattern to persist for the
foreseeable future with temperatures generally at or below normal.






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