040
FXUS65 KABQ 091219 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
619 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Hazardous heat is forecast for the northwest plateau today and
  Thursday, and potentially also over the middle and lower Rio
  Grande Valley and Glenwood area Thursday.

- For the remainder of the work week some gusty virga showers and
  dry thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon and early evening
  west of the central mountain chain and north of Highway 60.
  Wetting precipitation chances will begin to increase there this
  weekend into early next week.

- After a downtick in thunderstorm coverage today, scattered to
  numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon
  and evening Friday through early next week from the central
  mountain chain eastward, and over the southwest mountains.
  Locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day with a
  heightened risk of burn scar flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch for Flash Flooding is in effect for the Ruidoso
  area again today from noon until 9 PM MDT.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Updated Zone Forecast mainly to increase the probability of
precipitation over the south central mountains for this afternoon
and evening, and to a lesser extent over the eastern plains. Also,
added some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms to the
forecast over north central and western areas, all in accordance
with recent model trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 111 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Models depict the upper high persisting over the NM/AZ border
today, then weakening and shifting southwestward on Thursday in
response to an upper level trough that will clip northeast NM in
northwest flow aloft.

Today, model PWATs continue to show a decrease in moisture
overall, with a corresponding downtick in thunderstorm coverage
across much of northern and central NM. Storms will tend to favor
the central mountain chain and adjacent high plains this afternoon
and evening, as well as the southwest mountains. High resolution
models depict the south central mountains, including Ruidoso,
being the most favored location for showers and thunderstorms,
with one round of showers and thunderstorms developing over recent
burn scars in the afternoon, then another round moving southward
over the Ruidoso area in the early evening. The model PWAT
forecast over the Ruidoso area varies around 1 inch this
afternoon, which is plenty of moisture for a healthy storm to
wring out and cause significant flash flooding; especially given
saturated soils from heavy rain and flash flooding over the past
two days. Further, low level inflow out of the southeast is
forecast to move upslope onto Sierra Blanca Peak this afternoon
(like the past two days), feeding storms and supporting NBM`s
depiction of storms regenerating for a few consecutive hours
during mid-to-late afternoon just west of Ruidoso. Therefore, we
will issue another Flood Watch for Flash Flooding for the Ruidoso
area this afternoon until after the second round of precipitation
crosses early this evening. Wouldn`t expect as much rain as the
1.5-3.5" that fell on the scars Tuesday, but this weather pattern
has been a very effective storm generator and rainfall producer
in the Ruidoso area, and it is a good idea for people down there
to prepare for additional impacts.

Otherwise, it will be hot west of the central mountain chain today
and Thursday with lower elevation high temperatures near 100
degrees in many locations. A Heat Advisory remains in effect this
afternoon for the northwest plateau, including Farmington. Another
Heat Advisory may be needed there on Thursday, as well as the
middle and lower Rio Grande Valley, and potentially Glenwood.

Look for an increase in Thunderstorm coverage many places on
Thursday as the upper trough clips northeast NM. The storm system
will strengthen northwest flow aloft and increase shear and
instability enough for at least isolated severe thunderstorms east
of the central mountain chain Thursday afternoon and evening.
While the Ruidoso area will probably have scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms track southeastward off Sierra Blanca
Peak on Thursday, the low level inflow will be down the slope, so
high resolution models are not depicting consecutive hours of
cell regeneration over the burn scars like we saw yesterday and
may again see today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Friday through Tuesday will feature daily rounds of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms as repeated upper level troughs
clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft, sending moist
backdoor cold fronts into the forecast area. The central mountain
chain eastward will receive the most rain with multi-day totals
likely reaching over 0.50" in most locations, and some spots
potentially reaching over 2 inches. In addition, northwest flow
aloft is notorious for producing severe weather east of the
central mountain chain, and it will likely do so every afternoon,
evening, and potentially into the late night hours with passing
disturbances aloft. Recent burn scars along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain will probably have a risk of flash
flooding every day Friday through Tuesday.

West of the central mountain chain, showers and storms will be
pretty spotty on Friday, then better moisture will arrive with
moderate central valley gap winds each night Friday night through
Sunday night. The western fringe of the moisture will probably
feature gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms at least through
the first half of the weekend.

With the best moisture favoring eastern areas, high temperatures
through the long-term forecast period will generally vary from
near to a few degrees above 1991-2020 averages west of the central
mountain chain, and a few to several degrees below the averages
farther east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
generally track southward across the central mountain chain and
adjacent high plains this afternoon, and also over the southwest
mountains, at speeds around 5-10 KT. One of the most likely
airports to be impacted will be KSRR, where high resolution models
show two rounds of showers and thunderstorms crossing from the
north, one during early to mid afternoon, and the other closer to
sunset. Atmospheric moisture is trending downward, so there will
be some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms in the mix this
afternoon mainly west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the
Jemez Mountains, including KSAF, and also over the Sandia and
Manzano Mountains. Another area of isolated and gusty virga
showers and dry thunderstorms is forecast early this evening over
west central areas along and west of the continental divide.
Stronger thunderstorms and virga showers this afternoon and
evening will be capable of producing microbursts with localized,
brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Storms should mostly
end by midnight tonight. High temperatures west of the central
mountain chain this afternoon around 6-12 degrees above 30-year
averages will make density altitude an important consideration for
flights near complex terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Heat, as well as gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will
be the main fire weather concern west of the central mountain
chain and north of Highway 60 for the remainder of this week.
Temperatures will trend cooler as Gulf moisture increases over
western areas with central valley gap winds each night over the
weekend. Nocturnal gusts below canyons should generally vary in
the 25-40 mph range, but could be stronger at times below favored
canyons like Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 100  65  99  59 /   0  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  95  50  93  45 /   5  10  10   5
Cuba............................  93  60  93  57 /   5  10  20  10
Gallup..........................  96  58  96  54 /   5  20  10  10
El Morro........................  92  60  91  57 /  10  20  20  20
Grants..........................  95  60  96  57 /  10  20  20  20
Quemado.........................  94  63  93  62 /  20  30  40  40
Magdalena.......................  92  69  93  68 /  10  10  50  20
Datil...........................  90  62  91  64 /  20  20  50  30
Reserve.........................  99  60  98  56 /  30  30  50  30
Glenwood........................ 103  65 103  62 /  40  30  50  20
Chama...........................  89  52  87  48 /  10  10  20   5
Los Alamos......................  88  65  90  63 /  20   5  30  10
Pecos...........................  88  60  91  58 /  30   5  30  10
Cerro/Questa....................  89  59  88  54 /  10   5  40  10
Red River.......................  80  50  79  47 /  10   5  50  10
Angel Fire......................  82  44  82  41 /  20   5  50  10
Taos............................  91  56  91  52 /  10   5  30   5
Mora............................  85  54  88  53 /  30   5  40  10
Espanola........................  97  65  97  61 /  10   5  20  10
Santa Fe........................  91  65  92  62 /  20   5  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  94  64  96  61 /  10   5  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  73  99  70 /  10   5  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  73 100  70 /  10   5  20  20
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  71 102  69 /   0   5  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  72 101  70 /   5   5  20  20
Belen...........................  99  70 101  68 /   0   5  20  20
Bernalillo......................  99  71 101  67 /  10   5  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  99  69 101  66 /   0   5  20  20
Corrales........................ 100  72 102  69 /   5   5  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  98  71 101  68 /   0   5  20  20
Placitas........................  95  69  98  68 /  10   5  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  98  72 101  69 /   5   5  20  20
Socorro......................... 101  73 103  73 /   5  10  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  65  93  62 /  10   5  20  20
Tijeras.........................  92  68  95  64 /  10   5  20  20
Edgewood........................  92  60  94  58 /  20   5  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  92  59  96  55 /  20   5  20  20
Clines Corners..................  87  60  89  58 /  20   5  20  20
Mountainair.....................  90  64  93  61 /  20   5  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  89  63  93  61 /  20   5  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  92  68  95  67 /  20  20  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  84  61  88  63 /  50  50  40  20
Capulin.........................  87  58  88  53 /  10   5  50  30
Raton...........................  90  55  91  54 /  10   5  50  20
Springer........................  92  57  93  55 /  20   5  40  10
Las Vegas.......................  88  58  90  55 /  20   5  30  10
Clayton.........................  93  66  94  61 /  10   5  20  40
Roy.............................  89  62  91  58 /  20   5  20  20
Conchas.........................  97  68  99  64 /  10   5  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  93  65  96  62 /  20  10  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  94  68  96  64 /  10   5   5  30
Clovis..........................  95  67  97  67 /   5   5   0  30
Portales........................  96  67  98  66 /   5   5   0  30
Fort Sumner.....................  95  68  98  66 /  10   5   5  20
Roswell.........................  98  70 101  71 /  10   0   0  20
Picacho.........................  92  65  97  66 /  20  20  10  20
Elk.............................  90  63  95  65 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ201.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44