Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 101126 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
426 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions with mostly light winds to persist through the TAF
period. A northerly drainage wind at KSAF this morning may get gusty
prior to 18Z.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...239 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Above average temperatures and sunny sky will continue today through
much of next week. Light winds will continue outside of a couple of
backdoor cold fronts Monday night and Wednesday night. Winds pick up
toward the end of next week as the strong high pressure ridge along
the west coast responsible for steering storms well north of the area
finally breaks down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weather prediction models agree that the blocking (combo of Omega
and Rex) pattern continues through Thursday. Today and much of the
week will feel like groundhog day with temperatures changing very
little from day to day and not much in the way of cloud cover. A
couple of weak backdoor cold fronts drop into eastern NM Monday night
and Wednesday night, cooling high temperatures a few degrees and
changing wind direction but not amounting to much else.

Models agree that the blocking pattern begins to break down Thursday
night. The increasing west-northwest flow aloft results in a lee side
trough and increasing southwest winds for eastern NM Friday. GFS and
ECMWF diverge thereafter. While both models have an upper level
trough moving in over the PACNW Friday, the GFS digs a portion of the
trough southward through CA Friday night. The ECWMF is progressive,
sliding the wave through the Central Rockies. GFS then develops a
closed low near Los Angeles Saturday morning and tries to phase it
with a weak upper low over Baja. The phased low sits and spins off
the northern Baja coast Sunday before getting picked up by the
westerlies Monday night and Tuesday. While it sits and spins it`s
able to tap sub-tropical moisture, bringing this moisture up into AZ
and NM Tuesday. Not much confidence in such a solution but at least
it`s a sign that the convection in the eastern Pacific will finally
reach a point where the blocking pattern along the west coast
disappears.

FYI...the reason behind the long dry stretch has to due with the
lack of sub-tropical and tropical thunderstorms in the far eastern
Pacific Ocean (somewhat related to La Nina). A high amplitude ridge
develops along/near the west coast when the Pacific jet stream moves
east of deep tropical and sub-tropical thunderstorms (upper-level
forcing) in the western and central Pacific. The jet must get back
into (geostrophic) balance and so it splits in two near 150W with the
stronger northern portion heading into northwest Canada. There is no
West Coast blocking ridge (a.k.a the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge or
RRR) when there is long-lived sub-tropical or tropical thunderstorms
near 120W.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Extremely dry conditions with above normal temperatures and mostly
poor vent rates will prevail through Wednesday under a light wind
regime as the rex blocking pattern continues to dominate over the
Great Basin, Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies.

A cold front is still on track to push through Wednesday, providing
more cooling to the Eastern Plains than much of western New Mexico.
Despite the cooling, temperatures will still be near to slightly
above normal across the Eastern Plains going into Thursday. Vent
rates may improve by the end of the work week and into the weekend
as the ridge breaks-down and the westerlies punch-in. Chances for
wetting precipitation look to be zero for the next seven days,
although the latest GFS and Canadian model solutions show some
potential by the 19th.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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