000
FXUS65 KABQ 031210 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
510 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SOME SPOTTY MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBY TIL 15 OR 16Z THIS MORN...
PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SE NM...MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES
ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NM. MOST IMPACTED TAF SITES
TO BE ROW AND GUP. MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORN TO EARLY
AFTN...EXCEPT ACROSS AND ADJACENT TO THE SE PLAINS AND S CENTRAL
MTS WHERE LOW AND MID LVL MOISTURE FEED TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER
WITH SOME LOW CIGS...SPOTTY SHRA AND HIGH MT SN. A TRAILING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING A FEW -SHRA/-SHSN
TO FAR NW AND NORTH CENTRAL NM INCLUDING FMN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGER GUSTS OF 30 TO NEARLY 40 KTS ALONG AND UP TO ROUGHLY 70
MILES EAST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS WELL. YET ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN WEDNESDAY WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. THE EAST WILL STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SOME MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THURSDAY MORNING WHERE MANY
FOLKS WILL HOVER IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS. A VERY SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN IMPRESSIVE TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL SURGING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER NM AND THE SOUTH PLAINS AHEAD OF A REINFORCING 550DM
H5 UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COASTLINE. THE SHALLOW AND MOIST COLD
AIRMASS IN THE EAST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE SOCAL LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND PHASE WITH A PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A 1035MB SURFACE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ROCKIES WAVE WILL
BUILD DOWN THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME WILL HAVE EJECTED WELL EAST OF THE AREA
BY THE TIME THE TWO UPPER WAVES PHASE INTO A BROAD TROUGH OVER NM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER AGAIN AND
MORE DYNAMIC WITH THE OVERALL STORM SYSTEM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PRIMARILY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. RAISED POPS
EVEN MORE TO REFLECT BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
BENEATH THE PHASING UPPER WAVES. QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.10-0.30 WILL
RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER
WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. MORE IMPRESSIVE
IS THE BITTER COLD TEMPS THAT WILL ARRIVE WITH AND BEHIND THIS STORM
SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 25 TO 35F BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
MORE RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE.

GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A SLOW WARMING TREND BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER NM WILL FAVOR PERIODIC BACK DOOR FRONTS AND WAVER TEMPS IN
THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND READINGS WILL STILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS. THIS IS GOOD FOR THE RECENT ADDITIONS
TO SNOWPACK OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM. GENERALLY QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER ARE STILL INDICATED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE AND MOISTURE-RICH TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE WEST COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WX PATTERN TO WIND DOWN SOME THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH A NOTABLE EXCEPTION ON WED INTO WED NIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND EASTWARD TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS. THIS PERIOD WILL BRING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL TO THAT AREA AS SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE
SFC FLOW BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A HIGHER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO AND ACROSS THE STATE.
UNTIL THEN THOUGH ABOUT THE ONLY WETTING AMTS OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WX ZONE 108...RAIN SHOWERS...AND
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH. WHILE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS FOR MOST LOCALES...THE FURTHEST BELOW ACROSS THE NW
THIRD...THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT MUCH MORE SO WED...ABOUT 20 TO 35
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST AND 10 TO 20 BELOW WEST WED. TEMPS THEN
CLIMB SLOWLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW
AVERAGE. BY THE WEEKEND HIGH TEMPS MANAGE TO CLIMB TO JUST A VERY
FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM FAR WEST CENTRAL AND SW.

VENT RATES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY AFTN OVER MOST OF THE
WEST TWO THIRDS TODAY AND WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT CENTRAL AND WEST
WED. THE EAST WILL RANGE FROM HIGH END POOR TO LOCALLY GOOD
GENERALLY TODAY...MOSTLY GOOD WITH SOME POCKETS OF POOR TO FAIR
VALUES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WED. VENT
RATES WORSEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOST AREAS POOR...THEN SAT AND
SUN REACHING FAIR TO LOCALLY GOOD EAST AND CENTRAL...NOT QUITE AS
MUCH IMPROVEMENT WEST.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$