Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 201139
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
439 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH PATCHY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...THINNING OUT
OR EXITING THE REGION BY 19Z. WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGH. VFR THROUGH
21/01Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES TODAY ACROSS
MOST NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IN STORE. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...DOING LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTH. A FAIRLY QUIET
SATURDAY IS IN STORE...BUT THE WIND MACHINE WILL CRANK BACK UP ON
SUNDAY AND PERHAPS STAY ON THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAVE CROSSING NM NOW DOING VERY LITTLE OTHER THAN PRODUCING SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND/OR SHIFT EASTWARD. OTHERWISE A QUIET DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL...EXCEPT THOSE LOCALES
THAT STILL HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND.  THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF SUN THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THAT SHOULD MELT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH...AND END UP NOT PRODUCING MUCH
PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
REACHES OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS...BUT HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF REDUCING POPS.

THEREAFTER...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FAST MOVING
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL IMPACT THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FIRST
WILL CLIP N AND NE NM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THERE WILL BE
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE...THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP EARLY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING HEIGHTS
ABOVE 700 MB...AND 700MB WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 45-55 KTS. WITH SOME
OF THIS MOMENTUM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...COULD EVEN SEE SOME
HIGH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS. IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY FOR
SURE. MONDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT AS THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A
SIMILAR PATH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER TUESDAY AND BEYOND. GFS CONTINUES TO NUDGE
A RIDGE INTO THE SW AND EVENTUALLY OVER NM BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM DIVING DOWN OUT
OF THE PAC NW...PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP OVER NM FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD. THOUGH MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS FAVOR THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION...THERE ARE A FEW THAT LEAN TOWARD THE EC.
HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...

BLOB OF CIRRUS TO EXIT TODAY...WHILE A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
THE MID CLOUDS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS NOT VERY STRONG...IT/S
SUFFICIENT FOR VENT RATES WEST CENTRAL TO IMPROVE TO GOOD.
WIDESPREAD POOR RATES WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EAST TODAY.

VENT RATES IMPROVE AGAIN FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST. WETTING PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND CHANCES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER.
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE GRIDS...ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY FOR THE
EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST.

WINDS START TO INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS AND A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. VENT RATES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MIN RH LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT EVEN IN
THE EAST WHERE HIGHS AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. GUSTS TO
AROUND 55 OR 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER RIDGETOPS AND FAVORED AREAS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES
OVERALL. DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN 5 TO 10 DEGREES...LEADING TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
15 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WEST AND NORTH.

WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AT LEAST
OVER THE RIDGETOPS AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN
EXCELLENT. DRY WEATHER TO BE THE RULE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS VENT RATES WORSEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS
STILL AT ODDS FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE ECMWF HAS A
DECENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A RIDGE ALOFT.
HOWEVER AT 240 HRS IT DOES INDICATE A WEAKENING UPPER LOW COULD END
UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.