Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 140528
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SNOW WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS WHERE PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE NORTHERN
PEAKS. SOME RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE FOUND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY REMAINING HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 40 KT WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH A GAP/CANYON WIND ALSO POSSIBLE INTO KSAF AND KABQ WHERE
GUSTS COULD REACH 20-30KT BETWEEN 14/0400 TO 14/1000UTC. WINDS
WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ALSO WANING AND BURNING OFF TOWARD 14/1900UTC.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. STORM NUMBER
ONE IS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MAKING ITS INFLUENCE FELT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS REACHED
NE NM. PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY
FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALL OF NE NM. THE STORM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE MONDAY. A BREAK
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TWO MORE STORMS COULD IMPACT
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND TIME PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BIG WEATHER CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND BACK DOOR FRONT SLAMS INTO
NE NM. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL ACCELERATE
S AND W TONIGHT. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES...STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SHORT DURATION BUT
INTENSE PERIOD OF SNOW TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HARDING COUNTY TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR RATON
RIDGE...JOHNSON MESA AND FAR NE PLAINS ZONES DUE TO CONCERN FOR
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT.

STORM WILL QUICKLY DEPART NM ON MONDAY BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH
ONLY SOME BREEZES ACROSS THE E.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST TO BE ONLY A MINOR PLAYER
IN OUR WEATHER IS NOW MORE POTENT FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND SOME DECENT
QPF IN THE NORTH LOOKING MORE LIKELY. A BREAK FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER STORM...THIS ONE FROM THE WEST. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 101 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HUMIDIITES WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL IN ZONE 105...BUT AREAS BELOW 7500 FEET WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE RED FLAG WARNING IS ON TRACK WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS... SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES...AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM RATON TO TUCUMCARI AS OF 2 PM
WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT USHERING IN HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY N/NE WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BORDER. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT... AS WELL AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALL BUT SOME AREAS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND HARD FREEZES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE
MAINLY FAIR RECOVERIES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE RGV WESTWARD.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. LESS WIND AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALSO EXPECTED...THOUGH
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER MAY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A
FEW HOURS. VENTILATION WILL TAKE A DIP DOWN INTO THE GOOD TO VERY
GOOD CATEGORIES. MAINLY FAIR RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TUESDAY TO VALUES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND SOME BREEZES
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS AS WELL. THOUGH
LOW HUMIDITIES AND CRITICAL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...TEMPERATURES UP TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
HAINES INDICES GENERALLY AROUND 3 TO 4 WILL PRECLUDE A WATCH ATTM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NM ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS COME CLOSER IN
LINE TO THE ECMWF...THUS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS
MUCH AS WHAT WAS THOUGHT POSSIBLE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR CLINES
CORNERS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. SPOTTIER CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL WITH A FEW HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AS A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN THE
PLAINS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WETTING PRECIP MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. 34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>532.

&&

$$







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