000
FXUS65 KABQ 141752 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. PASSING SH WILL IMPACT SEVERAL
AIRPORT LOCATIONS INCLUDING TERMINAL SITES GUP/AEG/ABQ/SAF/LVS. IF
MVFR CIGS WERE TO OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. MTN TOP OBSCD
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS WILL THIN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TS WILL OCCUR BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
TO SUPPORT USING VCTS OR TEMPO THUNDER IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.
THUNDER WOULD BE A SHORT TERM IMPACT AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE PASSING SHOWERS AND WOULD OCCUR FOR SHORTER
DURATIONS. THE STRONGER WIND COMES SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE EAST.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY...AND A GUSTY/DUSTY BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SHOULD COULD PRODUCE WIND SPEEDS ABOUT THAT STRONG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. THE WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ON SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND SYSTEM...WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
MONDAY WITH MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH AND GUSTY COLD FRONT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
THIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAYS UPPER LOW STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOES IN AZ HAVE
LACKED ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 30S AND 40S TODAY...THE SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET. MOST OF THE POULTRY
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SPOTS IN THE JEMEZ AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH AND WILL ALSO BE WARM
ENOUGH THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH IT
IN MOST LOCATIONS EITHER. AN EXCEPTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS...WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD PILE UP. THE SYSTEM
WILL STEER A 50 KT 700 MB SPEED MAXIMUM OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS BETWEEN MIDLAND AND LUBBOCK. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 50 MPH
GUSTS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. LATER IN THE DAY A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CO SHOULD ALSO KICK UP THE WIND
AND DUST.

AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND SATURDAY...READINGS SHOULD WARM A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST ON SUNDAY WHILE EASTERN READINGS REMAIN COOL.
READINGS SHOULD THEN REBOUND WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AS WINDS
ALOFT RESTRENGTHEN SOUTH OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN
LIKELY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES.
IF IT DROPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...NORTHERN AREAS MAY RECEIVE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BARREL SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM BEARING GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER READING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SW ARIZONA
WILL CHUG EASTWARD TODAY INTO NM AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. EARLY
MORNING RH RECOVERIES ARE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE
OVER THE AREA. A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE EVEN NOTED NEAR THE
GILA HOT SPRINGS AROUND 230 AM. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITH DECENT DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIP
AND SOME THUNDER FROM THE UPPER GILA REGION ACROSS THE DIVIDE THEN
INTO THE JEMEZ MTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY
ABOVE 9000 FT HOWEVER EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW TO NEAR 7500 FT.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND PROVIDE ONLY MINOR RELIEF TO VERY POOR
SNOWPACK CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE OVER THE EAST...A BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL SLIDE WEST AND PUSH THRU GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL FOCUS LOCAL BREEZES BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS ANTICIPATED.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR APART TONIGHT WHILE A SECOND VORT MAX
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FOCUS VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. TEMPS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL AND LATEST
FORECAST HAINES VALUES ARE 2 TO 3 FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AREA WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE SW MTS...SOUTHERN HALF OF MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL BE
VERY CHILLY WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ALL AREAS...WHICH WILL
HELP RECOVER RH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE EAST WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPS. NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES OCCUR FOR
6 TO 8 HOURS IN THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH HAINES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR MONDAY THAN
SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BUT MORE FROM
THE NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC FRONT. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106>109.

&&

$$