Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 290556 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1156 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
A weak and slow moving upper level low over NW NM will gradually
weaken tonight through Monday, but it will work with a high
pressure system E of NM to draw and steer a moist low level
return flow NWWD into central and E NM tonight and Monday. There
is a good chance of low clouds with MVFR and possibly locally IFR
conditions at all TAF sites E of the central MT chain late tonight
into Monday morning. The best chance will be at ROW. With all the
moisture in place, SCT to NMRS showers and thunderstorms are
forecast Monday mainly along and just E of the central MT chain
and across the SE plains. Another round of low clouds is likely
across the E Monday night.
.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016...
An upper level low pressure system spinning over the Four Corners
will drift east and weaken over New Mexico through Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue over the state each day, especially
over the eastern plains where heavy rainfall is likely. Potential
for flooding will increase with each round of heavy rain. A second
surge of moisture will shift northwest into New Mexico Wednesday
through Friday and continue the potential for locally heavy rain
just about anywhere. A warming and drying trend is expected to begin
by late in the week.
A 582dm upper level low center is drifting slowly south across the
Four Corners region this afternoon. The greatest moist instability
is focused over eastern NM where a few storms have already dumped
heavy rainfall totals. Storms are forming within linear segments in
deep layer southwest flow so any flooding will result from training
cells. As has been the case on many recent days storm coverage will
diminish quickly after sunset over central and western NM, at least
according to near-term model guidance. The exception is the eastern
plains where moisture convergence and lift continue through the
overnight. This area is progged to remain under the gun for heavy
rainfall through Monday. Coordinated with surrounding NWS partners
and confidence is not high enough at this time to support a Flood
Watch. The NASA SPoRT 0-10cm soil moisture increased considerably
last night from heavy rain in the southeast yet no flooding issues
were noted. Will let the overnight shift take another look and see
how precip evolves tonight.
Models are in decent agreement with weakening the upper low over the
Four Corners into essentially an inverted trough over NM by Tuesday.
The best coverage of showers and storms is still expected to focus
over eastern NM. Steering flow will weaken to nearly stationary,
especially within central NM but will there be sufficient moisture
and instability in these areas to support a decent crop of storms.
Basically this leads to the potential for heavy rainfall just about
Unfortunately extended guidance continues to struggle with how the
upper level pattern evolves Wednesday through the weekend. An upper
high will begin drifting west from the lower MS river valley but the
details are highly uncertain. The GFS develops deep layer southerly
flow along the western periphery of the upper high and forces a ton
of moisture associated with an easterly wave into NM through Friday.
The ECMWF has the moisture trapped over northern MX and southern NM
until Friday then forces it across NM as a trough approaches from
the west over the weekend.
Weak low just south of the 4 Corners will continue an extremely
slow drift to near or just nw of ABQ through Mon. It will help
induce a significant increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
across roughly the east half of NM, to some degree through this eve,
but more so Mon and Tue. Lower numbers of showers and storms with
smaller wetting footprints can still be expected farther to the
west. From Wed through Fri the picture is a little more uncertain as
some fcst models keep it wetter across the east or se half of the
state and others focus more on the west half. Nighttime humidity
recovery generally good to excellent areawide through at least
Thu or Fri night.
For next weekend the GFS model indicated drier and perhaps somewhat
breezier as well, but ECMWF is advertising a wetter period. The
latter scenario seems less likely as both are advertising a turn to
a more westerly flow aloft which is nearly always a drying pattern
for the fcst area. Aftn temps will trend upward to slightly above
normal values by this coming Fri and the adjacent weekend, except
perhaps for the approximately nw third of the state. Haines values
are not getting above 3 or 4 across the area through nearly all of
this next week. Ventilation rates expected to be poor to fair most
locales through Wed, then improving the latter part of the week.
Forecaster confidence is moderate to high into Tue or Wed, but only
low to moderate thereafter.