000
FXUS65 KABQ 120532 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIE BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINAL SITES REST OF
TONIGHT. USING VCSH AT FMN/GUP FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT. TOOK VCSH OUT OF ABQ/AEG AND SAF ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT
SOME SHORT DURATION EFFECTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MTN TOP
OBCSD WILL OCCASIONALLY BE FOUND ALONG THE SAN MATEOS AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA BUT CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
MVFR CATEGORIES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS GOING A LITTLE MORE BULLISH FOR ROW SEEING
SOME MVFR IMPACTS. LOWERED CIGS THERE ACCORDINGLY. SOME SIGNATURE
AT TCC/LVS BUT LESS LIKELY SO KEPT MENTION OUT OF THOSE TERMINAL
SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SH/TS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. USING VCSH AS A PLACEHOLDER AT
THE PRESENT TIME.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...811 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014...
.UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT. TWEAKED POPS
A BIT FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. MAINLY ADJUSTED FAR
EASTERN EDGE TO LOWER OR REMOVE POPS. ZONES OUT SHORTLY. CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE THE FOCUS
SHIFTS...OR PERHAPS JUST SPREADS...INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NEXT WEEK
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALSO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ALL WEEK...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EXISTS DAILY...
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO MUCH OF EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NM AHEAD OF AN EASTERLY WAVE. MONSOONAL PLUME IS CERTAINLY FOCUSED
ACROSS WESTERN NM WHERE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN PLACE AND PWATS ARE
AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. APPEARS LIKE THE DRY AIR HAS PUSHED FURTHER
WEST THAN MODELS SUGGESTED...BUT THE 17Z HRRR APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...WHERE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS LIES.  HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA AS THESE LOCALES HAVE RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TODAY...AND WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY TOWARD
THE WEST...IT MAKES SENSE THAT STORMS FAVOR THAT AREA TONIGHT. THERE
IS ALSO A PRECARIOUS BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE NE NM/SE CO BORDER
THAT HAS RECENTLY SPARKED AN ISOLATED STORM. LOOKS LIKE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE KEPT POPS AT A
MINIMUM. ABQ AREA WILL BE TRICKY...AS STORMS THUS FAR HAVE STRUGGLED
THAT HAVE FORMED ON THE SANDIAS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT ADDITIONAL
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE MTNS AND BASED ON STORM
MOTIONS...SHOULD ARRIVE IN ABQ PRIOR TO 6PM IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.

THE EASTERLY WAVE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE EAST TOMORROW...BUT THE UPPER
HIGH THAT IS OVER THE NE NOW...WILL START TO SHIFT WNW. THIS WILL
MEAN LITTLE CHANGE FOR STORM COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT FOR SATURDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL TRAVEL WESTWARD...EXCEPT STORMS ACROSS THE NE WHICH
MAY DRIFT EASTWARD. THESE NE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL GENERALLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LATER IN THE EVENING MAY PUSH IT FURTHER SOUTH HOWEVER.

THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NE LOOKS TO BE REINFORCED A BIT ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS MAY PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE EXPANDED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NE FOR THIS REASON.  OTHERWISE...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH GENERALLY TILTS
THE WEAK MONSOONAL PLUME OVER INTO MORE OF THE STATE.

WITH AN EXISTING BOUNDARY IN PLAY ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MONDAY. THEN THE STRONGER
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PUTTING ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST. THE WEST WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
TOO...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT PUSHES THRU THE GAPS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NM MID WEEK AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED. THIS IS NOT GOOD IN TERMS OF RECEIVING
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...THE TRADITIONAL MONSOON WAY...BUT REGULAR
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE USHER IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONTS...AND ONE SUCH STRONG FRONT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ONCE AGAIN.  THUS...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THRU THE NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT REBUILDING THE
UPPER HIGH OVER NM NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE WITH WETTING RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY. AN EXPANSION IN THE WETTING RAIN PATTERN WILL COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONT SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A WIDESPREAD WET PATTERN
WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
BURN SCAR FLOODING.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS
WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND AREA AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.  A BROAD AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF THE WAVE IS USHERING IN MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...THUS SHUTTING DOWN WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.
SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY GOOD
VALUES ELSEWHERE.

UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WELL NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY STARTING
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL BACK DOOR FRONTS WILL EDGE
INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. MONSOON PLUME WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST THUS ONLY THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.

FOR THE WORK WEEK...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND REGULAR WIND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
MAINTAINING MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. EXTEND MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WHILE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF SPECIFIC FEATURES...THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN FOR THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE BURN
SCAR FLOODING... ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES LOOK TO
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PERIODS OF POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...PORTIONS OF THE WEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$