Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 251802 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1202 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016
18Z TAF CYCLE
SW winds will be breezy to windy this aftn, and again on
Thursday, as an upper low approaching the Four Corners from the
west steers stronger winds aloft over NM. The strongest surface
winds both days will be around the S central mountains and across
the E plains. There could be a few dry and gusty virga showers
and thunderstorms over the NW mountains this evening, but they
will be more likely on Thursday, when they will favor western and
.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016...
A dry atmosphere will continue across the Land of Enchantment
today with plenty of sunshine...afternoon breezy to windy
conditions and above normal across the eastern plains. A Pacific
low pressure system will approach from the west overnight and move
over northern New Mexico Thursday...bringing cooler temperatures...
windy conditions and chances for showers and storms. Daytime
temperatures will continue below normal Friday in the wake of the
departing system...with another round of afternoon showers and
storms. Temperatures will rebound over the weekend and into early
next week and generally be near normal. Chances for storms will
favor eastern New Mexico late in the weekend and into early next
Another hot day forecast across the eastern plains with deep layer
mixing leading strong wind gusts by afternoon. Sufficient mid
level moisture will be positioned near the Continental Divide by
late day for a few dry showers or storms. Otherwise...a very dry
atmosphere will continue across our area with pwats well below
normal for late May.
The upper low...currently moving southeast offshore of southern
California...will progress east overnight and is still forecast to
move across northern sections of our area Thursday. A lee side
trough is forecast to deepen to near 992mb over southeast Colorado
by late Thursday afternoon...with windy to very windy conditions
forecast across the eastern plains (see fire weather discussion
below for potential impacts). The upper low will bring a Pacific
front through Thursday and temperatures will be on the downtrend...
especially across western New Mexico where highs are forecast 10
to 15 degrees below normal. A mix of dry/wet convection forecast
Thursday...with mostly dry showers/storms along and east of the
Pacific front where pwats will remain well below normal. Below
normal temperatures will overtake the entire area Friday in the
wake of the departing upper low...but sufficient moisture and
instability will remain in place for a crop of afternoon showers
and storms. Best chances for wetting precipitation Friday will be
across the northeast quarter with the potential for wrap-around
moisture as the upper low pulls northeast away from New Mexico.
Increasing pressure heights over the weekend will lead to a
warming trend with temperatures generally near normal areawide by
Sunday. The forecast for late Sunday into early next week is
trending warmer with increasing chances for showers and storms...
mainly east of the central mountain chain with a weak and slow
moving upper level trough to our west.
...Critical Fire Weather Conditions expected across eastern New
Mexico today and likely Thursday...
Southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level closed low over
southern California will once again combine with a very dry and
unstable airmass to create critical fire weather condtions across
eastern New Mexico today and likely again Thursday. Across western
and central areas, winds won`t be quite as strong and green up above
about 6500 feet will keep things in check. Above mentioned upper low
will slide eastward across northern NM Thursday. The associated
surface cold front will push from west to east across the state
Thursday morning. A few mainly dry showers and thunderstorms will
likely develop across the northern and western mountains Thursday
afternoon but the main impact will be cooler temperatures and
increased cloud cover. As the upper low lifts northeast into
southeast Colorado on Friday afternoon, wrap-around showers and
thunderstorms develop from the Jemez and Tusas mountains eastward to
the Texas line.
As another upper trough takes shape across southern California
Saturday, a southerly flow aloft develops over NM. This flow results
in increased Gulf moisture (dryline) across the eastern plains
Saturday night and especially Sunday. GFS and ECMWF agree that
strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms develop across the eastern
plains Sunday afternoon. As the trough heads east into AZ Monday,
the dryline heads east into TX with a few showers or thunderstorms
developing across far northern NM. Both models surprisingly similar
through Tuesday, generating at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms across much of the region Tuesday. The most active day
next week continues to look like Wednesday when the upper trough
stalls across the southern plains.
Ventilation rates today through Monday will remain in the very good
to excellent range. Rates will decrease somewhat Tuesday across
the northeast as a backdoor cold front moves in.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for the following zones... NMZ104-108.