000
FXUS65 KABQ 132113
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO WEATHER-MAKERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE FIRST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND THE SECOND ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN IS FORECAST...WITH
SOME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE SECOND
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH STRONG WINDS...BLOWING DUST AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH THE
SECOND SYSTEM AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING
TREND ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOCAL. THE FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF FORECAST
CYCLES. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME THUNDER
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO FILL...BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND IN THE
TUSAS...JEMEZ AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS. AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANGRES...AND ADVISORIES
MAY BE REQUIRED. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR THE ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
METROS LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY 3-9 PM.


THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF NM OVER THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY
MORNING AS CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSH SSE
OUT OF COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY
WIND...DUST AND FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS (SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
DETAILS) SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST AS WELL. OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND UP
AND WE NOW HAVE SOLID WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SPEEDS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. SOME WARNING CRITERIA SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PEAKS AND AT PLACES LIKE CLINES CORNERS. WIND
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING
DUST TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR LIMITATIONS TO VISIBILITIES
WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS INCLUDING THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BACKDOOR PORTION OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AND TAKE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THAT SAID...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE TRENDING WINDIER...
THANKS TO A FASTER BREAK-DOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT INCHES
CLOSER TO NEW MEXICO...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
POP UP INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE. SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE ONGOING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BUT THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET AS WINDS DECOUPLE. SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD FARTHER EAST OVER NM TONIGHT WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. RH WILL RECOVER TO 50 TO
70 PERCENT IN MOST ZONES...AND EVEN HIGHER IN THE NORTHWEST.

DECENT CHANCES FOR SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
THE CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL...WEST CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT TAKE TOO LARGE OF A DIP...DESPITE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE...BUT STILL WILL FALL JUST SHY OF
AVERAGE IN SOME AREAS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
NM...THE STRONGEST BELT OF WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE
STATE...BUT A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL INTRODUCE SOME BRIEF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MID DAY FRIDAY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ANY DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING...THE NEXT TROUGH
ALOFT WILL BE MAKING A RACE INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF NM. THIS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURE WILL BE A QUICK-MOVER WITH
PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM...BUT A LARGE
SWATH OF STRONG WINDS OVERTAKING A MAJORITY OF THE STATE WITH
ANOTHER MASS OF COLDER AIR PLUNGING IN. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REACH
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS AND THEN SOME...AND CRITICAL RH WILL ALSO BE
PREVALENT OVER A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSING IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE A SLAM
DUNK RED FLAG SCENARIO. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE ESSENTIALLY
NON-EXISTENT...AND WHILE MIXING HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES APPEAR
REASONABLY FAVORABLE FOR MIXING OF STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT...THERE
ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER AND THE EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WATCH FOR ZONES WHERE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WAS DEPICTED...I.E. HAINES OF 5 OVER FWZ
106...107...108...AND 109 IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THESE ZONES WILL REPRESENT AREAS LEAST LIKELY TO RECEIVE ANY
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY...SO FUELS WOULD BE PRIMED.

INTO SUNDAY THE TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
WITH RIDGING STEADILY BUILDING INTO NM. POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE/20FT LEVEL WILL STILL BE BRISK WITH TEMPERATURES
HAVING FALLEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...AND WHILE NO
ONE PARTICULAR DAY IS ADVERTISED TO BE A BLATANTLY CRITICAL
DAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DAY-TO-DAY BOUTS OF STRONGER WINDS AND
SUFFICIENTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. INCREASING CLOUDS IN WEST CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND MORE SO INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  33  57  30  57 /  20  20  10   5
DULCE...........................  28  51  24  52 /  30  40  10  10
CUBA............................  29  50  26  53 /  30  50  10   5
GALLUP..........................  30  52  25  56 /  30  40  10   0
EL MORRO........................  27  50  24  55 /  30  50  20   0
GRANTS..........................  28  51  25  57 /  30  50  20   0
QUEMADO.........................  34  52  29  59 /  30  30  20   0
GLENWOOD........................  29  61  31  67 /  10  10  10   0
CHAMA...........................  25  45  21  47 /  40  60  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  51  31  56 /  30  50  30  10
PECOS...........................  32  49  30  55 /  20  60  50  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  25  48  22  49 /  30  60  40  30
RED RIVER.......................  23  42  23  40 /  30  70  50  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  22  44  22  44 /  30  70  50  30
TAOS............................  28  51  25  51 /  20  40  40  20
MORA............................  32  47  27  52 /  30  60  60  30
ESPANOLA........................  29  55  29  57 /  20  30  30  10
SANTA FE........................  33  52  30  57 /  30  50  40  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  32  54  31  59 /  20  40  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  38  56  36  62 /  10  40  30   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  39  56  37  63 /  10  40  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  36  59  34  65 /  10  40  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  38  57  36  63 /  20  30  20   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  33  60  33  66 /  10  30  20   5
RIO RANCHO......................  37  55  35  62 /  20  30  20   5
SOCORRO.........................  41  62  38  68 /   5  10  20   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  35  53  32  57 /  20  50  40   5
TIJERAS.........................  37  54  34  58 /  10  50  40   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  26  54  29  59 /  10  40  50   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  30  53  32  57 /  10  30  50  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  58  34  59 /  10  20  30   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  38  63  36  63 /   5  10  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  36  61  34  60 /  10  10  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  31  52  29  53 /  20  20  20  40
RATON...........................  29  52  27  55 /  20  30  20  30
SPRINGER........................  30  53  28  56 /  10  20  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  29  50  29  55 /  10  20  30  30
CLAYTON.........................  35  56  33  57 /   5   5  20  30
ROY.............................  31  53  32  56 /  10  10  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  36  61  36  63 /   0  10  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  35  62  35  64 /   5  10  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  35  64  36  65 /   0   5  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  36  67  37  67 /   0   5  30  10
PORTALES........................  37  69  38  68 /   0   5  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  38  68  40  69 /   0   5  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  36  74  42  77 /   0   5  10   5
PICACHO.........................  38  68  39  70 /   5   5  10   5
ELK.............................  37  65  38  67 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106>109.

&&

$$

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