327
FXUS65 KABQ 100800
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
200 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 113 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

- Hazardous heat is forecast for the northwest plateau today and
  Thursday, and over the middle Rio Grande Valley and West Central
  Highlands.

- For the remainder of the work week some gusty virga showers and
  dry thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon and early evening
  west of the central mountain chain and north of Highway 60.
  Wetting precipitation chances will begin to increase there this
  weekend into early next week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
  each afternoon and evening Friday through early next week from
  the central mountain chain eastward, and over the southwest
  mountains. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day with
  a heightened risk of burn scar flash flooding.

- Marginal risk of severe weather for eastern New Mexico tomorrow
  and Friday afternoons. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
  main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 113 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

High pressure aloft will remain west of NM for the next 7 days,
while another high pressure system varies its position around the
Gulf Coast, leaving the forecast area in region of lower pressure.
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will result. However,
moisture will be somewhat limited today and especially Friday as
drier air works its way over the forecast area from the west. By
Friday afternoon, PWATs will bottom out around 75-50% of average
for this time of year along and west of the central mountain
chain, and closer to average farther east. Nonetheless, scattered
to isolated showers and thunderstorms will break out both days
with greater coverage today as an upper level trough clips
northeast NM in northwest flow aloft. In the wake of the upper
level trough, a somewhat moist backdoor front will enter the
eastern plains. There will be a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms over east central and northeast parts of the
forecast area this afternoon and evening, then over more of the
east Friday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, along and west of
the central mountain chain today and Friday, some virga showers
and dry thunderstorms are forecast, and some of these will be
capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph with little
or no rain reaching the surface.

Otherwise, high temperatures today will generally vary from a few
to around 10 degrees above 30-year averages. Highs around 100 F
will constitute hazardous heat from Albuquerque to Grants this
afternoon, and also around Farmington. High temperatures on Friday
look to fall a few to 5 degrees along and north of Highway 60, but
readings may remain warm enough for major heat risk in the middle
and lower Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are forecast this weekend through the middle of the coming week,
and their potential to produce locally heavy rainfall will
increase as rich Gulf moisture works its way farther and farther
west with each day. A combination of moist backdoor fronts and
southeasterly low level return flow will deliver the moisture even
to western areas by late in the weekend. On Saturday, however,
some cells along the continental divide of northwest NM will
probably still be mostly dry and gusty. One period of heavier
rainfall looks to occur Saturday and Saturday night as an upper
level trough forms a closed low pressure system while tracking
slowly southeastward across northern and eastern NM. Areas of
heavier precipitation will likely linger into Sunday along and
east of the central mountain chain as the upper low stalls over
east central and southeast NM. The effects of this upper low may
linger through Monday as it gradually exits north and
northeastward. Then, another upper level trough will sweep through
northern and eastern areas Tuesday with a moisture-rich backdoor
front that will continue to invigorate convection through
Wednesday. The burn scars will no doubt be on high alert due to
the risk of flash flooding each day starting potentially as early
as Saturday, but more likely Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast along
and east of the continental divide on Thursday afternoon and
evening. Some storms will probably turn severe east of the
Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains by producing large
hail and damaging winds. Meanwhile, some virga showers and dry
thunderstorms mainly along and west of the central mountain chain
will produce dry microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic
wind gusts up to 45 knots. After midnight Thursday night,
isolated showers and thunderstorms may linger south of I-40 and
along and east of the south central mountains. Otherwise, high
temperatures along and west of the central mountain chain will
climb around 4 to 11 degrees above 30-year averages Thursday
afternoon, making density altitude an important consideration for
aviation operations near complex terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 113 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Heat, as well as gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will
be the main fire weather concern along and west of the central
mountain chain for the remainder of this week. Temperatures will
trend cooler as Gulf moisture increases over western areas with
central valley gap winds each night over the weekend. Nocturnal
gusts below canyons should generally vary in the 25-40 mph range,
but could be stronger at times below favored canyons like Tijeras
Canyon in Albuquerque. Coverage of dry storms out west will begin
to decrease Saturday, with a mix of wet and dry cells potentially
persisting in the forecast each day next week for the Four Corners
region, since the main high pressure system aloft looks to remain
west of NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 100  59  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  94  46  92  45 /  10   0   5  10
Cuba............................  94  57  92  56 /  20   5   0   5
Gallup..........................  96  53  94  49 /  10   5   0   0
El Morro........................  91  57  90  54 /  10  10   0   5
Grants..........................  97  57  94  54 /  20   5   0   5
Quemado.........................  93  61  91  58 /  20  20   5  10
Magdalena.......................  94  68  94  63 /  30  20   5  10
Datil...........................  92  64  90  59 /  30  20   5   5
Reserve.........................  98  56  97  53 /  30  30  10  10
Glenwood........................ 103  63 102  60 /  30  20  10  10
Chama...........................  87  48  86  46 /  20   0  10  10
Los Alamos......................  91  63  89  59 /  20   5  10  10
Pecos...........................  90  59  88  56 /  40  10  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  88  54  87  52 /  40  10  30  30
Red River.......................  79  46  78  44 /  50  10  40  40
Angel Fire......................  82  39  80  39 /  50  10  40  30
Taos............................  92  52  89  51 /  30   5  20  20
Mora............................  87  52  84  49 /  40  10  40  30
Espanola........................  98  59  97  58 /  20   5  10  20
Santa Fe........................  92  62  91  59 /  30  10  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  97  61  94  59 /  20  10  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  99  71  97  67 /  20  20   5  20
Albuquerque Heights............. 100  69  99  67 /  20  10   0  10
Albuquerque Valley.............. 102  68 101  66 /  10  10   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 101  70  99  67 /  10  10   0  10
Belen........................... 101  67 102  63 /  10  10   0  10
Bernalillo...................... 102  67 101  65 /  20  10   0  10
Bosque Farms.................... 101  66 100  63 /  10  10   0  10
Corrales........................ 102  68 101  66 /  10  10   0  10
Los Lunas....................... 101  67 100  64 /  10  10   0  10
Placitas........................  98  67  96  65 /  20  10   5  10
Rio Rancho...................... 101  68  99  66 /  10  10   0  10
Socorro......................... 102  72 103  68 /  20  20   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  93  62  92  59 /  20  10  10  10
Tijeras.........................  95  65  93  61 /  20  10  10  10
Edgewood........................  94  58  92  56 /  20  10  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  57  93  54 /  20  10  10  10
Clines Corners..................  89  58  87  56 /  20  20  10  20
Mountainair.....................  94  60  92  57 /  30  20  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  93  60  92  58 /  30  20  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  94  67  97  65 /  20  20  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  87  63  89  59 /  30  20  30  10
Capulin.........................  87  53  82  51 /  50  40  30  70
Raton...........................  90  54  87  53 /  40  20  30  50
Springer........................  93  54  89  54 /  40  20  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  89  54  86  53 /  30  10  30  30
Clayton.........................  94  61  90  59 /  30  50   5  60
Roy.............................  90  57  87  57 /  30  30  20  40
Conchas.........................  98  63  94  64 /  20  30  10  40
Santa Rosa......................  96  62  91  62 /  20  20   5  30
Tucumcari.......................  95  63  92  62 /  10  30   5  40
Clovis..........................  96  66  94  66 /   0  20   0  40
Portales........................  97  66  95  66 /   0  20   0  40
Fort Sumner.....................  97  65  96  66 /  10  20   0  20
Roswell.........................  99  72 100  71 /   5  20   0  10
Picacho.........................  96  66  95  64 /  10  20  10  10
Elk.............................  94  66  94  62 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ201-207-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44