Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 182049 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
249 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THEN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACTED THE STATE OVERNIGHT
AND TODAY. IT WILL EXIT NM TONIGHT WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES AIM
AT US FROM THE WEST. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN BAJA CA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST
TX FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY. THE THIRD AND FINAL STORM WILL COME
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN AS IT PASSES TO OUR
EAST. BUT THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM ON SATELLITE CROSSED NM LAST NIGHT AND
TODAY...ITS OVER NORTHEAST NM NOW. A NICE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVERNIGHT AND IS JUST NOW EXITING
NORTHEAST NM. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES IN
THE EAST...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S SO FAR. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH OTHER
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS WILL SURVIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

STORM NUMBER TWO WILL CRAWL SOUTHEAST INTO SONORA SUNDAY. WE WILL
GET AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. A SIMILAR STORY
FOR MONDAY AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW REACHES NORTHEAST MEXICO.

THE LOW WILL BE HARD TO FIND BY TUESDAY...PROBABLY OVER WEST TX.
MEANWHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE WITH A
STRENGTHENING TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEK. WHILE THE ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR EAST THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR WEST. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH SHOULD WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OVER NM LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THE EAST ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY BUT DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MILD TO WARM DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAX VENT RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE VARIED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK BUT GENERALLY AVERAGE FAIR AT BEST FOR A VAST MAJORITY
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ESPECIALLY VALLEY LOCALES.
SIMILAR TO TODAY... PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND EASTERN PLAINS WILL
HAVE A WINDOW SUNDAY PM WHEN VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD IF NOT VERY
GOOD OWING TO ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS. SIMILARLY ON MONDAY...A
POCKET OF DEEPER MIXING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...AND SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS MAY YIELD VERY GOOD VENT
RATES WITH FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE WEST AND
EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN CONCERN RELATED TO VENTILATION RATES WILL
COME LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST AND LOOKS TO STRONGLY DOMINATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG INVERSIONS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT
CONDITIONS.

COMPACT LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR AREAS OF WETTING PRECIP SINCE LATE
FRIDAY WILL EXIT THE NORTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS WILL
THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THOUGH WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL.  LOOKING AHEAD...A BAGGY LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY BRIEFLY
BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO. ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER WC/SW AREAS. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD BUT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDERLAND MONDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO CA...KEEPING BEST CHANCES OF WETTING
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MOST ACTIVE/UNSETTLED PERIOD WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL TUE/WED WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED KICKER TROUGH
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW.  DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THU. KJ




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN KLVS AND KTCC WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD AND EXITS THE STATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL SHIFT TO NC/NE NM
BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
-SHRA AND -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTING TOWARD THE N OR NE LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY MODERATE W-E GRADIENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY GAP
WINDS PERSISTING AT KSAF AND KABQ...THOUGH TYPICAL DIURNAL WEAKENING
REMAINDER OF TODAY BEFORE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENING NEAR 00Z BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. FORECAST AFTER 00Z WILL FOCUS ON
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS...-SHRA AND VCFG EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND RENEWED -SHRA COVERAGE FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS. WILL
INCLUDE PROB30 FOR KFMN...KGUP...KSAF TO SHOW TREND FOR LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY WHERE CONFIDENCE HIGHEST AND INCLUDE PLACEHOLDER VCSH FOR
ABQ AREA TERMINALS. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  71  44  73 /  10  10  10  10
DULCE...........................  36  67  36  69 /  20  20  10  20
CUBA............................  41  67  40  68 /  20  30  20  20
GALLUP..........................  38  69  38  70 /  10  30  20  10
EL MORRO........................  40  66  39  66 /  20  30  20  30
GRANTS..........................  39  68  39  69 /  10  30  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  43  67  41  66 /  10  30  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  42  74  42  74 /  10  20  20  20
CHAMA...........................  33  63  31  65 /  30  30  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  65  45  66 /  20  30  20  20
PECOS...........................  42  64  43  64 /  20  30  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  65  35  66 /  20  30  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  38  56  37  56 /  20  40  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  62  29  62 /  20  30  20  30
TAOS............................  37  66  35  67 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  40  66  39  64 /  20  30  20  30
ESPANOLA........................  47  71  45  71 /  20  20  10  10
SANTA FE........................  45  65  45  66 /  20  20  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  46  68  44  69 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  50  68  50  70 /  10  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  70  52  72 /  10  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  72  48  73 /  10  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  51  72  51  74 /  10  20  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  74  46  74 /  10  20  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  48  72  49  73 /  10  20  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  50  74  49  75 /  10  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  46  69  46  69 /  20  30  20  30
TIJERAS.........................  47  68  47  69 /  20  20  20  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  68  39  69 /  10  20  20  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  42  66  43  65 /  20  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  68  46  68 /  10  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  45  71  47  71 /  10  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  43  67  44  65 /  20  30  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  42  70  41  66 /  10  20  10  20
RATON...........................  39  73  39  69 /  10  20  20  10
SPRINGER........................  40  73  39  70 /  10  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  41  68  40  66 /  10  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  44  75  48  72 /  10  10  10  10
ROY.............................  43  71  44  69 /  10  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  48  76  48  74 /  10  20  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  47  73  49  72 /  10  20  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  47  76  48  75 /  10  10  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  46  71  49  72 /  10  10  20  20
PORTALES........................  46  71  49  73 /  10  20  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  48  72  50  73 /  10  20  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  50  72  53  74 /  10  30  30  30
PICACHO.........................  47  69  47  68 /  20  30  30  30
ELK.............................  44  65  47  64 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40





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