000
FXUS65 KABQ 170529 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING AND
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF LARGE SYSTEM MOVING OVER
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO CENTRAL TX WILL HELP BOOST FRI AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM 19Z ONWARD AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z SUNSET FRI EVENING. SOME CLOUD AOA BKN150 WILL
WORK IN OVER EASTERN NM AFTER 03Z FRI EVENING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...257 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013...
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER IS OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY AS A
SLUG OF VERY DRY AIR MOVED IN FROM THE WEST LAST NIGHT. FEEL THAT
THIS MORNING`S BALLOON SOUNDING HAD A DUD HYGRISTOR...AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE 0.03 INCH PWAT WAS ERRONEOUS. A PWAT CLOSER TO
0.20 INCH WOULD SEEM MORE BELIEVABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY`S READINGS...STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. MIXING
HAS BROUGHT SOME BREEZINESS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AND A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING LARGE SPREADS BETWEEN SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AND PEAK GUSTS. TONIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
WHILE WINDS ALOFT BACK MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE POLAR JET
CARVING OUT A WESTERN COAST TROUGH.

ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE CONTINUED BREEZINESS FROM THE STIFFENING
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WITHIN A WELL-MIXED AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A TERRIBLY STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME SITES WILL BRIEFLY SEE SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HIT SUSTAINED 31 MPH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SMALLER-SCALE BATCH OF SHORT-LIVED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO NM FRIDAY...BUT
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP STILL LOOK LOW TO THE HIGH-BASED CLOUDS
AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY BRIEFLY TURNING NEGATIVELY
TILTED. MODELS HAVE SHOVED THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME SCANT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHILE FORCING STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
STILL BE RATHER STRONG ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WHERE INFLUENCE FROM THE DEEPER LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL
COME INTO PLAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DIP CLOSER TO AVERAGE
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

BY SUNDAY A LAGGING PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL HOLD BACK FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONG GRADIENT
ALOFT INTACT. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH DUE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ANOTHER WINDY DAY WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. WIND SPEEDS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR
TOO LOW FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO
40 AND 45 MPH WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL DIMINISH WITH DRY AIR INVASION. THE
LAGGING VORT MAX ALOFT WILL FINALLY PASS EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY...OR TUESDAY IF YOU BELIEVE THE EUROPEAN MODEL.
REGARDLESS...STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF NM.

LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING AS A SLOW-MOVING AND DEEP UPPER
LOW GETS HUNG UP OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD DRAW IN A
LONG-LIVED RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT WOULD USHER
IN MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF NM...SOME WELL NEEDED FUEL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD WITH LOW HUMIDITY/HIGH HAINES AND
GUSTY WINDS STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DECIDED TO ADD ZONE 109 OR THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE WATCH
PRODUCT FOR SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE JUMPED AROUND A BIT ON THE
STRONGEST WIND FIELD ALOFT SO DIDNT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
A WARNING FOR SATURDAY BUT APPEARS STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS A BIT MORE. FLOW WOULD BE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

ALSO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR SUNDAY...BASICALLY LOWER/MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. AGAIN MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT THEIR DEPICTION OF THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT BUT
SPEEDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ISSUANCE. FLOW WOULD BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...TURBULENT MIXING WITH DUST DEVILS
BOUNCING AROUND. GUST SPREADS 20 KNOTS PLUS AT A LOT OF OB SITES AT
1400 LT INDICATE HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOW/MID
LEVELS. RESIDUAL PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT REMAIN ABOVE
AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOTS OF SINGLE
DIGITS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LOW/MID ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WONT BE TOO GOOD MOST AREAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FRIDAY IS JUST A TRICKY FORECAST DAY FOR WIND. IT APPEARS THAT A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS IT PERTAINS TO RED FLAG
WIND SPEEDS WOULD PREVAIL CLOSE TO THE ARIZONA BORDER LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ZUNI TO SHIPROCK. JUST DIDNT GET
ENOUGH AREA OR DURATION TO WARRANT A WATCH FOR ZONE 101 AND 105 BUT
WORTH NOTING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOCAL CRITICAL AS IT RELATES TO RED
FLAG SPEEDS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS WOULD EXTEND FROM SOCORRO TO LAS VEGAS
TO UNION COUNTY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE COUPLED WITH
VERY LOW HUMIDITY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
BUT JUST COULDNT PULL THE TRIGGER ON A WATCH THERE EITHER. EITHER
WAY YOU SLICE IT...FRIDAY IS A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES/HIGH HAINES/VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. IT IS A DAY WHERE WIND SPEEDS FALL SHORT
MOST AREAS BASED ON CRITERIA BUT IS JUST OF A DANGEROUS DAY DUE TO
THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC ELEMENTS. ESPECIALLY IF A FIRE WERE TO START.

AS TALKED ABOUT ABOVE...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL
PACIFIC TROUGH SHEARS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
MODELS HAVE BEEN BULLISH FOR THIS SCENARIO THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS SO
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD THERE. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING
THEIR DEPICTION OF THE FLOW ALOFT. IT SEEMS THEY HAVE BEEN SHIFTING
THE MAIN JET CORE FURTHER SOUTH. EITHER WAY...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
A BIT MORE MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. THE OTHER THREAT ON SATURDAY
WOULD BE FASTER MOVING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CORE PORTION
TO THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE ISOLD TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OR SO. DUE TO THE FASTER NATURE TO THE
CELLS...PERHAPS SOME DRIER STORMS WITH THAT ACTIVITY. A LITTLE MORE
WET TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER. RIDGE WINDS WOULD REMAIN GUSTY
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD LEAD INTO ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SOME DUE TO THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...BASICALLY NEARLY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL/WEST AND
ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES EAST. AGAIN MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
BULLISH WITH THIS PATTERN FOR SUNDAY SO CONFIDENCE DECENT ENOUGH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PARENT TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE ROCKIES
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WOULD BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
ON MONDAY WITH MOST LIKELY SOME SORT OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO. PERHAPS FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY AND AROUND 8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAN JUAN COUNTY. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN
LOW MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION.

BREEZINESS AND LOW HUMIDITY DUE TO ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY
THEN THE MODELS SHOW THE FLOW CHANGING SOME THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH...PRETTY VIGOROUS...WOULD MOVE DOWN
THE WEST COAST SETTING UP A STRONGER WIND GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO.
THUS SUSPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD RETURN. THE MAIN THING WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS HOW LONG THAT
UPPER LOW STAYS OVER THE WEST COAST. IF IT STAYS FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS
THEN DRYLINE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY BE PRETTY ACTIVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. AM SURE THE MODELS WILL WAFFLE AROUND A BIT ON THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS UPPER LOW BUT LONG RANGE CONFIDENCE IS
ACTUALLY PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TWO TIERED EVENT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER GROWTH CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRYLINE STORMS. WILL JUST
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$

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