Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 030539 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
THROUGH NEAR WEST CENTRAL NM THRU 03/15Z WITH A PERSISTENT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED TSTM. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35KT AND BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS.
POTENTIAL FOR LCL MT OBSURATIONS AROUND 03/06-15Z WEST CENTRAL DUE
TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SFC FRONT TO ENTER NE NM AFT
03/12Z WITH NLY WIND SHIFT AND MAY REACH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY 03/21Z. ISOLD CONVECTION AFT 03/18Z MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTHERN AND
WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PASS
SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACH
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL DRAW ENOUGH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO FOR SOME GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY. THIS
STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND
PRODUCING MAINLY WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THOUGH THE
DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WEATHER PATTERN
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE ADVECTING SURPRISINGLY RICH MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. DESPITE 40 TO 50
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND A HALF INCH
ARE FORECAST IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN THE NAM AND GFS. THIS
SUGGESTS A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS A
GOOD BET. MUCH LOWER PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND GUSTY/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN
MODE OF CONVECTION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAR WEST
CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS THIS WEEKEND...DESPITE THE WINDY
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THAT SHOULD UNFOLD. THIS COULD ADD SOME
DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WARM AND WINDY MIX IN THOSE AREAS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE SLIDING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL INTERACT
WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RECYCLE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND SHIFT
SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL HELP FORCE A COUPLE
MORE TERRAIN DOMINATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY. ANY WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE VERY SMALL...IF ANY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL TREND
DOWNWARD EACH AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPS TREND WARMER AS WELL. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE DOMINATED BY MOISTENING FROM THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH CRESTS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE.
VENTILATION RATES WILL HOVER IN THE GOOD CATEGORY WHILE HAINES SLOWLY
CREEP UP EACH DAY.

CHANGES ARRIVE THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
STARTS TO INCREASE. BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THE HIGH AND FORCE A COUPLE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN STORMS
THURSDAY WITHIN CENTRAL NM. ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
HAVE SMALL FOOTPRINTS. VENTILATION WILL RETURN TO EXCELLENT AREAWIDE.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN QUICKLY FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR STRONGER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE. TEMPS WILL TREND
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WHILE MIN RH VALUES HOVER BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL TO MARGINALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN. GREEN UP AND DECENT PRECIP AMOUNTS THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE CONSIDERATIONS FOR MITIGATING SIGNIFICANT
FIRE BEHAVIOR CONCERNS.

RECOVERIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE FAIR MOST AREAS WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES ACROSS THE EAST. COLD ADVECTION BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE FOCUS FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT INTO THE EAST WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGH HAINES. GREEN UP AGAIN WILL BE A STRONG CONSIDERATION
AFTER RECENT RAINS. MUCH COLDER AIR AND HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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