Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 122139
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
239 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The warming trend will continue into the weekend, except across the
eastern plains where a weak backdoor cold front will provide some
cooling on Saturday. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be above
normal areawide on Sunday with light winds. A stronger backdoor cold
front will slide down the eastern plains Monday and then push to near
the Continental Divide Monday night. Much colder air will move in
behind the front, especially across the eastern plains. A
disturbance will move across late Wednesday and bring a chance for
showers to the northern mountains. Look for warming late next week in
advance of a Pacific cold front, forecast to push through late
Friday or Saturday and bring windy conditions with chances for
showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Windy conditions persist along the east slopes of the central
mountain chain and over the adjacent eastern highlands, where gusts
to between 35 and 45 mph have been common today. Otherwise, a
warming trend is underway and current temps are 5-15 degrees warmer
than yesterday at this time. More warming is forecast over the
weekend, but a weak backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern
plains tonight and provide some cooling there on Saturday. By Sunday,
temperatures will be back above normal areawide with light winds.

A stronger backdoor cold front will usher in a modified arctic
airmass on Monday, which will push all the way to the Continental
Divide by Monday night and likely result in moderate/gusty easterly
gap/canyon winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys.
Temperatures behind the front will drop well below normal across the
eastern plains through Tuesday.

12Z medium range model solutions are still at odds with the midweek
trough/low, although the GFS has trended toward a more amplified
feature with at least some precipitation. The ECMWF is still showing
an small and progressive upper low moving southeast across our area,
but with very little moisture. Added a slight chance mention of
showers for Wednesday and Wednesday night, favoring the northern
higher terrain.

Increasing winds and warming are forecast toward the end of next
week in advance of an upper level trough, forecast to push through
late Friday or Saturday. Differences in the timing between the 12Z
GFS and ECMWF are noted, but neither solution offers much in the way
of qpf and certainly no winter storm.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail tonight, and a weak backdoor
cold front will move westward across the eastern plains. Relative
humidity recovery tonight will be good to excellent in most
locations. The backdoor cold front will stall out east of the
central mountains Saturday. High temperatures in the eastern plains
will be near to slightly below normal in the northeast and below
normal across the remainder of the area. Behind the front, minimum
relative humidity will increase to 25 percent or greater in the
eastern plains Saturday, while elsewhere values will be in the teens
to mid 20s. Winds will generally be light Saturday, but southwest to
south winds in the eastern plains will increase to 8 to 12 mph in
the afternoon. Ventilation will be poor in most locations Saturday,
except fair in the northeastern plains. Winds aloft will decrease
Saturday night into Sunday, and winds at the surface will be light.
Ventilation will be poor across the entire region Sunday.

A strong backdoor cold front will move across the eastern plains
early Monday morning and move westward to the central mountains by
early afternoon. Significantly colder air will move across areas
east of the central mountains Monday. Minimum relative humidity will
increase to greater than 35 percent in the eastern plains. Northeast
winds behind the front will range from 15 to 25 mph with gusts to
near 30 mph. Light snow showers will develop from the northeast
plains to the foothills of the Sangre de Cristo mountains Monday
afternoon and evening with very light accumulations expected at this
time. Ventilation Monday will be fair across most of the eastern
plains with poor conditions to the west. Dry weather and light winds
will return on Tuesday. Ventilation will be poor across the entire
area Tuesday.

A weak trough will cross NM from northwest to southeast Wednesday
and Wednesday night with light precipitation possible, mainly across
the northern third of NM. Slight improvement in ventilation to fair
is expected Wednesday across western and north central NM with poor
conditions continuing across the remainder of the area. High
pressure aloft will move across NM Thursday, and light winds and
poor ventilation are expected. A storm system will move eastward
across southern CA Friday with light precipitation possible in
northwestern and north central NM late in the day. West to southwest
winds will become breezy Friday afternoon and ventilation should
improve. Models not agreeing on solutions for Friday night through
Saturday, but indicate that a weak storm will track across the
southwest U.S. Precipitation amounts appear light at this point, but
this could change as models get a better handle on the storm track.

28

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A weak surface trough in the eastern plains today in combination with
strong northwest winds aloft in western and central NM will produce
gusty northwest winds through early this evening across portions of
western and central NM. Wind gusts will generally be between 20 and
25 knots, but at KLVS and areas east of the north central mountains
wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots are expected. Winds will diminish early
this evening and remain at or below 10 knots through midday
Saturday. VFR conditions will prevail today through Saturday.

28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  18  49  21  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  16  46  17  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  18  47  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  14  52  15  56 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  10  51  12  55 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  12  52  14  56 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  20  53  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  27  62  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  11  43  13  48 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  26  46  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  22  46  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  16  44  19  49 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  15  38  14  44 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  11  41   9  47 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  12  46  14  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  21  48  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  24  50  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  26  47  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  20  50  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  29  53  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  27  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  23  56  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  27  54  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  17  56  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  27  53  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  25  57  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  24  49  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  23  50  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  19  51  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  22  48  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  24  51  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  27  53  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  27  50  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  16  47  19  53 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  14  49  17  56 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  15  51  18  57 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  18  49  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  18  49  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  17  48  23  55 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  22  51  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  21  52  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  20  53  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  20  49  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  19  50  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  20  50  22  57 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  24  51  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  26  51  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  25  49  27  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

11



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