Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W 07N17W AND 05N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N19W 05N27W
04N34W TO 04N40W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 01N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...TO 02N07W 04N13W 04N30W 05N40W 06N46W 06N53W...AND
FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KEIR...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...
KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...KGHB...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST/IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...IFR
IN BAY CITY. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS...VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. ALABAMA...IFR IN GULF SHORES AND AT THE CAIRNS
AIRFIELD AT FORT RUCKER. FLORIDA...IFR IN PENSACOLA. LIFR AT
WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN MARY ESTHER/
VALPARAISO/DESTIN. IFR IN PANAMA CITY. LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE. MVFR
IN PERRY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

PLEASE REFER TO THE WEATHER BULLETINS FROM NWS OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR DETAILS ABOUT RAIN THAT CONTINUED THERE
DURING TUESDAY...AND ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES EXTENDS FROM 19N62W TO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...REACHING THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N
BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N71W...ACROSS
HAITI...TO 17N73W...TO 14N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND
70W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...DRIZZLE IS
BEING REPORTED AT 27/0000 UTC. THE CEILING IS BROKEN AT 4500
FEET. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...RAINSHOWERS ARE
NEARBY AT 27/0000 UTC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING HAS A BASE AT
1800 FEET...MVFR. ANOTHER CLOUD BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. SANTO
DOMINGO...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...
MVFR...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. LA
ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AN OVERCAST CEILING AT
7000 FEET...AT 27/0300 UTC. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...AN OVERCAST CEILING AT 7000 FEET. SANTIAGO...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000
FEET...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000 FEET...MVFR...

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE...AND DURING ALL OF DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND FOR DAY ONE...AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF
A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HAITI...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL END UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 34N39W TRIPLE
POINT...THROUGH 32N38W TO 30N38W 26N40W AND 21N53W. THE FRONT IS
STATIONARY FROM 21N53W TO 19N62W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FROM 19N62W TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FROM 19N TO 22N
BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 26N34W
21N43W 20N54W...AND FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N31W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 34N39W-TO-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N66W TO 30N77W...ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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