Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 211634

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N20W to the Equator near 25W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is S of 06N between the Prime Meridian and 07W.
Isolated moderate convection is S of 03N between 13W-21W...and S
of 05N between 47W-54W.


NW flow aloft prevails over the Gulf providing dry air and stable
conditions filtering to the surface in the form of a ridge
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 26N90W. The ridge extends
eastward across portions of the SW North Atlc anchored by another
1022 mb high centered across the southern Florida peninsula.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds accompany the ridge as noted
on recent ASCAT data. The high is forecast to remain nearly
stationary across the central Gulf waters with little change in
the overall wind pattern through Wednesday. By Thursday...the
ridge will weaken slightly and begin moving NE as E-SE winds
increase into fresh to strong levels Thursday night into Friday as
an area of low pressure develops across the Front Range and
central Plains.

Broad upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over
the NW Caribbean while southwesterly flow aloft to the east of
the troughing prevails over the eastern Caribbean. Dry and stable
air overall is providing for a lack of any significant deep
convection and mostly tranquil surface conditions this afternoon.
A few areas of isolated showers however are noted on satellite
imagery across the far southwestern waters S of 16N W of 80W...
including inland portions of Honduras...Nicaragua...and Costa
Rica. A stationary front terminates across north-central
Hispaniola with isolated showers occurring N of 17N between 65W-
74W. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh trades prevail and
are expected to persist through Thursday night.

The tail end of a stationary front extends from the central Atlc
near 24N60W SW to the northern coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W.
Low-level moisture convergence associated with the front
continues to provide focus for isolated showers generally N of 17N
between 68W-74W...including portions of the adjacent coastal
waters. The front is expected to become diffuse by late
Wednesday...however any lingering remnant boundary or surface
troughing will provide a slight probability of isolated shower
activity through the remainder of the week.

Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over the SW North Atlc generally N of 26N in response to
an upper level low centered N of the area supporting a cold front
analyzed into the discussion area near 32N52W. The cold front
continues SW to 24N60W then becomes stationary to the northern
coast of Hispaniola. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
are occurring N of 25N between 48W and the boundary. Isolated
showers are occurring elsewhere within 180 nm either side of the
stationary front. The remainder of the SW North Atlc region is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high
centered across the southern Florida peninsula near 27N81W. Mostly
light to moderate anticyclonic flow is associated with this
ridge. Farther east...the remainder of the central waters and
eastern Atlc is under the influence of another surface ridge
anchored by a 1035 mb high centered across the Azores near 40N27W.

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