Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160610

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
210 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia is centered near 49.2N 13.3W at
16/0300 UTC or about 191 nm SW of Mizen Head Ireland, moving N at
38 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 48N between 09W-21W. The center of the post-
tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday and then
near northern Scotland Monday night. It is expected to dissipate
near western Norway by Tuesday night. Strong winds and rain will
extend far from the center. Gale-force winds are expected to begin
across southern Ireland during the next few hours and gradually
spread northward across the country during the day on Monday.
Hurricane-force winds are forecast to reach the southern portions
of Ireland by Monday afternoon. Strong winds will then spread
across the remainder of Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom
into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property
should be complete. See the last Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

A low pressure system located about 100 miles east-northeast of the
Turks and Caicos Islands is gradually becoming better defined.
Associated thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little
better organized this morning, and gale-force winds have been
occurring in squalls northeast of the center. Some development of
this low will be possible during the next day or so while it
moves generally northward over the western Atlantic. However,
upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation by late Tuesday, and the system is likely to
merge with a front and become extratropical on Wednesday. There is
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

A cold front along the Texas coast is moving into the Gulf of
Mexico tonight, will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay
of Campeche Mon morning, and then stall from Tampa Bay to the
western half of the Bay of Campeche early Tue. A tight pressure
gradient and cool dry air associated with the front will allow N
winds funneling along the coast of Mexico to reach minimal gale
force from Tampico to Veracruz Monday into late Tuesday, with seas
reaching 8 to 14 ft.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 15N46W to 04N46W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in an area
of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is
in a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 43W-50W.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 16N52W to 07N53W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area
of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in
a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered
moderate convection is from 11N-14N between 51W-56W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N71W to 11N72W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in an
area of abundant moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave
is in a distinct surface trough, and a distinct 700 mb trough.
Isolated moderate convection is over Hispaniola.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
10N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 10N24W
to 07N34W to 09N45W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, widely scattered moderate convection is within
90 nm of the ITCZ between 23W-43W.



A cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico extending from S
Louisiana near 29N92W to Brownsville Texas at 26N97W. 20-30 kt
north winds are north of the front. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the W Gulf
from 27N91W to 22N91W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 23N-28N between 89W-94W. In the upper levels, the base of a
large trough is over Texas supporting the cold front. An upper
level ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 88W. Upper
level diffluence E of the upper trough is enhancing the convection
over the W Gulf. Gale force winds will develop between the front
and the E coast of Mexico Monday. See special features above.
Expect the cold front in 24 hours to extend from N Florida to the
Bay of Campeche with convection.


A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. The
eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa Rica
and Panama. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean from 07N-11N between 76W-80W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is along the coast of Nicaragua from 11N-14N between
80W-85W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level high is
centered over the Windward Islands near 15N60W. Another small
upper level high is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near
18N88W. Expect the central Caribbean tropical wave to produce
additional convection over the next 24 hours.


Presently isolated convection is over Hispaniola due to a tropical
wave. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.


A 1012 mb low is centered N of Hispaniola near 22N70W. A surface
trough extends N from the low to 29N70W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 22N-25N between 66W-70W. See
above. A 1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
36N44W. Elsewhere, the tail end of a cold front is producing
scattered showers over the Canary Islands.

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