Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 111755

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 30.0N 36.5W at 11/1500
UTC or about 675 nm SW of the Azores moving E at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is from 28N-32N between 34W-38W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 27N-33N between 30W-40W.
See the latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave extends from 06N45W to 15N42W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 38W-47W and a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 11N.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-14N between 39W-

A tropical wave extends from 04N75W to 14N71W moving W at 10-15
kt. This wave coincides with very subtle 700 mb troughing over
western Venezuela and northern Colombia on the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level ridge axis extending from over the Lesser
Antilles to over the ABC Islands. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-15N between 68W-76W.

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
07N23W to 06N29W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 06N29W to 06N36W to 08N42W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave...scattered moderate convection
is from 02N-06N between the Prime Meridian and 10W...and from
03N-09N between 10W-26W.


A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 30N91W into the
NW Gulf waters from 29N91W to 26N96W to the coast of Mexico near
21N97W. A surface trough extends from the front near 22N96W to
18N94W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring generally S of
28N W of 93W. Farther east...a surface trough is analyzed from the
Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to 27N86W in the NE Gulf waters. A
few isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either side of the
boundary. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh easterly winds
prevail across the basin. The front across the western portion of
the Gulf will become diffuse through Thursday and dissipate into a
surface trough boundary across the SW Gulf Thursday night into
Friday. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected through the
upcoming weekend.

An upper level low is centered over the SW North Atlc region near
24N75W and continues to provide an overall lower pressure regime
and weak pressure gradient pattern across the basin. A pair of
surface troughs are noted N of the basin across the SW North
Atlc...and continue to generate an area of scattered showers and
tstms E of Puerto Rico from 17N-21N between 63W-66W. Farther
south...a tropical wave is moving across the SW Caribbean and
Colombia. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring in the vicinity of the wave S of 14N between 68W-77W.
Otherwise...latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across the basin.

An upper-level low is centered N of the island near 24N75W and is
expected to continue drifting west during the next couple of
days. Upper level southwesterly flow is expected to prevail over
the island as the low drifts and provide an overall divergent
environment across the region supportive of scattered showers and

Tropical Storm Ophelia is detailed above. An upper level low is
centered over the SW North Atlc near 24N75W and providing support
for a pair of surface troughs. One trough is analyzed from eastern
Cuba near 20N74W to 27N72W and the other trough is analyzed from
20N69W to 26N63W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from
22N-27N between 71W-79W...and within 120 nm either side of a line
from 23N52W to 26N60W to 27N70W...and from 17N-22N between 63W-
66W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered
near 34N52W. the east of Tropical Storm Ophelia
surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1022 mb high centered W of
the Iberian peninsula near 40N14W.

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