Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 150602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 26.2N 53.3W AT 15/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 726 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MAINLY NW OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 51W-57W. SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE NE OF EDOUARD FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 47W-52W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 21N16W TO 10N21W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING
IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE WHERE
NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS STILL
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE SOUTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE.
NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THE TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N39W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 16N40W TO 9N40W...MOVING WEST AT 20
KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N-18N
WITHIN 170 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IN THE
SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE E PAC WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 90W AND
MOVING W AT 20 KT. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ON THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
9N25W TO 10N37W TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N45W TO
THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 22W-37W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS SE LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF
ALONG 29N90W SW TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE BASIN AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH DOMINATES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS ALONG
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
TROUGHINESS ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N90W TO 17N93W
AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE WAVES SECTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 27N WEST OF 85W. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SW BASIN MONDAY WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT THAT WILL STALL
INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF MON NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MAINLY MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
BASIN AS WELL AS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
NARROW REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ON SW HAITI...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SE CUBA COASTAL
WATERS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS S OF 21N W OF 80W AND S OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-83W. A TONGUE
OF DRY AIR ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA MON EVENING THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A
REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE ISLAND
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SW HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TONIGHT. BESIDES THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS INDUCED
BY DAYTIME HEATING...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS ABOVE. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE SW N
ATCL CENTERED NEAR 24N68W ALONG WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN THE REGION SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 64W-70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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