Tropical Weather Discussion
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873
AXNT20 KNHC 241740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 50W
from 9N-20N moving west near 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a well defied 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and within a highly amplified surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated
deep convection.

Tropical wave over the Yucatan peninsula along 90W/91W south of
21N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and within a surge of moisture that covers all of the Gulf of
Mexico as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
No associated deep convection in the Gulf of Mexico or
Caribbean.

Tropical wave that moved inland over south Mexico is no longer
generating any activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the
east Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N16W and continues along 15N22W through a weak
1012 mb low near 13N26W to 8N40W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 8N51W to South America near 7N58W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is inland and within 30
nm along the coast of Africa from 13N-15N. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are within 75 nm along the coast of Africa
from 8N-13N, within 150 nm of line from 10N23W to 5N36W, and
within 120 nm along the coast of South America south of 9N west
of 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored over east Texas extending a ridge
axis southeast over the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan peninsula
covering the Gulf west of 86W. An upper low is centered over
south Florida covering the remainder of the Gulf. The upper low
is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over the gulf
from 23N-27N between 83W-88W and scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 25N from over florida to the north coast
of Cuba east of 83W through the Straits of Florida including the
Florida Keys. The upper ridge is providing difflunce aloft to
generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of
27N to inland over the north Gulf coast between 84W-95W. This is
leaving the southwest Gulf under clear skies this afternoon. A
surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across Florida to
over the east Gulf. The surface ridge will persist through
midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over Nicaragua extending a ridge axis
into the Caribbean to 15N82W. An inverted upper trough extends
from a an upper low along the coast of Colombia near 12N74W
across Haiti into the west/central Atlantic. This is generating
isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 17N to over the
Dominican Republic between 68W-71W, between southwest Haiti and
Jamaica, and south of the Cayman Islands within 45 nm of
17.5N82W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Panama
and Costa Rica along 8N/9N generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms south of 10N west of 77W. This is leaving
the remainder of the Caribbean under mostly clear skies this
afternoon. The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic
surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is
producing fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean that will continue through the midweek. The next
tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean Monday night, then
into the central Caribbean Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the Dominican
Republic north of 17N between 68W-71W leaving the remainder of
the island under mostly clear skies this afternoon. Afternoon/
evening isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through
tonight and Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper low centered over south Florida is generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms from 23N-28N west of 77W to
over the Florida peninsula and including the north Bahama
islands. An upper trough is digging south to 30N over central
Atlantic generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
north of the 30N between 60W-65W. Otherwise, high pressure
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic with a surface ridge
extending from a 1032 mb high west-northwest of the Azores
through 32N48W along 29N61W to a 1019 mb high near 30N78W across
Florida to over the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge will persist
through midweek. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the north
coast of Hispaniola each evening through midweek.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW



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