Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 141730

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 34.8N 26.6W at 14/1500 UTC or
about 190 nm S of the Azores, moving NE at 22 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. The core of Ophelia will pass to
the south and southeast of the Azores tonight. It is expected to
be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds
as it approaches Ireland. See the latest Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 30W from 04N-13N,
moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of moderate moisture
as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a surface trough
and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 44W from 04N-
14N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of moderate
moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a surface
trough and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 10N-14N between 39W-48W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
22N60W to 10N63W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of
abundant moisture noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a
distinct surface and 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate
convection is E of the wave axis from 12N-18N between 58W-61W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean and Central America along
84W from 05N-18N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded within
an area of deep layer moisture as depicted in the SSMI TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over much of
eastern Nicaragua, over portions of the W Caribbean Sea, and
eastern Panama.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N12W to
08N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N21W to 06N30W to 08N44W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from
09N-12N between 32W-36W.



A surface trough is over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 28N85W to
20N88W with minimal convection. Mostly fair weather is over the
N Gulf. 10-20 kt easterly surface winds are over the Gulf, with
strongest winds over the central Gulf. In the upper levels, a
large upper level high is centered over S Louisiana near 30N92W,
with strong subsidence. Expect the surface trough to move W over
the next 24 hours with additional showers.


The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa
Rica and Panama with convection. In upper levels, a small upper
level high is centered over the Leeward Islands near 18N63W.
Expect the tropical wave W of the Lesser Antilles to produce
convection over the E Caribbean during the next 24 hours.


Partly cloudy weather persists over Hispaniola. Expect scattered
showers in afternoon and evening hours Today, increasing Sunday
due to the tropical wave.


A surface trough is NE of the Bahamas from 31N72W to 26N75W.
Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Further east, a
surface trough extends from 30N58W to 24N62W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 27N-29N between 53W-58W, and from 24N-27N
between 63W-67W. A stationary front is draped along 31N from 37W
to 64W with scattered showers along the front. A surface ridge
is anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 27N49W.

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