Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 191110

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.


The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 19/1200 UTC is
near 8.3N 53.5W, or about 550 nm to the ESE of Trinidad. It is
moving westward, 280 degrees, 20 knots. The maximum wind speeds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
from 07N to 12N between 53W and 59W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, a lot of high-level cloudiness, and other
possible rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 12N to 23N
between 48W and 60W. Please read the NHC Potential Tropical
Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

A 1005 mb low pressure center is near the center of the Yucatan
Peninsula, near 19.5N89W. Gale-force winds, and sea heights
ranging from 9 feet to 14 feet, cover the Caribbean Sea from 18N
northward between 84W and 85W. Gale-force winds are going to be
developing in parts of the SE Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon
hours of today. A surface trough extends from the 1005 mb low
pressure center, to the Florida Big Bend. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from Honduras toward
NW Cuba between 82W and 85W. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong in the Gulf of Mexico from NW Cuba to
29N between the Florida west coast and 87W. Earlier scattered to
numerous strong precipitation, that was covering the areas that
are from the northern half of Guatemala to 20N in the Yucatan
Peninsula, has weakened. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong remains, mostly in the coastal plains from Belize to 20N in
the Yucatan Peninsula. The low pressure center continues to lack
a well-defined center of circulation. Gradual development of this
system is expected when it moves into the southern or central
Gulf of Mexico later today and Tuesday. It is likely that a
tropical storm, or a subtropical cyclone may form there. Heavy
rains are expected to continue in parts of Central America, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if
necessary. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during
the next two days is high. Please read the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, and
the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/29W from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate from 14N southward between
20W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/40W from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
moderate from 04N to 08N between 35W and 43W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/62W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots into the Caribbean Sea.
Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 17N to 21N between 60W and 67W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 60W and 70W.


The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to
06N33W, 03N44W, and 04N48W. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 200 nm of the coast of Africa
from 17W eastward, and from 04N to 07N between 29W and 35W.



A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough cuts through southern
Mississippi and SE Louisiana, to a 27N92W cyclonic circulation
center, to 19N102W in southern Mexico, just to the west of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, within 120 nm on either side of
the line that passes through southern Mississippi, to the 27N92W
center, to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W.


LIFR: none.

IFR: none.



TEXAS: LIFR in Hebbronville. MVFR in Conroe and Jasper. LOUISIANA:
MVFR at the NAS in New Orleans, on the southern side of Lake
Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: light rain in Natchez. ALABAMA: MVFR
in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area, and in Gulf Shores. LIFR
in Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview. LIFR in Sarasota. MVFR
in Marathon Key.


Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
68W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 20N63W Atlantic Ocean-to-10N63W in
coastal Venezuela trough. The 60W/62W tropical wave is going to
be moving through the same area during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and
84W in Costa Rica, and then it continues northwestward, beyond
NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
elsewhere from 15N southward from 75W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 19/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
Guadeloupe, and 0.11 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.


Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of NW wind flow becoming N wind flow during the first half of the
day. A N-to-S oriented trough will move to Hispaniola from the
east, bringing cyclonic wind flow from the end of day one into at
least the middle part of day two. Southerly wind flow will follow
as the trough moves westward, away from Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that an inverted trough will cover the
area during day one. The inverted trough will move to the west of
the area during day two, leaving SW wind flow. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the
area during the next 48 hours, with Hispaniola being on the
southern side of an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.


An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, through the
NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, and that ends near NE coastal
Venezuela near 10N63W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 17N to 21N between 60W and 67W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 60W and
70W. A cold front passes through 32N30W to 29N40W and 31N50W. A
dissipating stationary front continues from 31N50W beyond 32N54W.
Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 25N
northward between 25W and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward
between 50W and 72W.

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough, from 20N northeastward,
is within 400 nm to 600 nm to the west of Africa. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward, to the area of the cold front/stationary
front, between Africa and 80W.

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