Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 172328

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis
from 17N32W to 04N32W, moving westward at 20-25 kt. This wave is
embedded in a 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields. SSMI
total precipitable water imagery also shows a very moist area
around the wave. Isolated moderate convection is over the
southern portion of the wave from 02N-10N between 25W-38W.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
from 19N39W to 04N40W, moving westward at 25-30 kt. This wave is
embedded in a 700 mb trough as indicated in model fields, and is
accompanied by a modest surge in moisture. Scattered moderate
convection is inland from 04N-07N between 53W-57W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis from
17N79W to 05N72W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is
embedded in subtle 700 mb trough and is in a surge of deep
moisture that covers the southern Caribbean Sea. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are over the SW
Caribbean, and Central America from Panama through Nicaragua
from 04N-14N between 76W-86W.


The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W and continues to 08N30W. The ITCZ begins
west of a tropical wave near 07N34W and continues to the coast
of South America near 05N52W. Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the ITCZ.



A surface ridge extends along 30N from N Florida to E Texas.
Gentle breeze winds from the SE cover the Gulf. An upper level
high is centered over central Mississippi near 33N90W. Easterly
upper level flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with considerable
upper level moisture. Clusters of scattered moderate convection
are over most of the Gulf to include the northern Gulf States,
Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect little change
in the surface flow and area of convection over the next 24
hours, while the upper level high moves west to eastern


A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. See above. The
surface pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower
pressures over Colombia supports fresh breeze to strong breeze
tradewinds over the central Caribbean. A small upper level high
is currently over the SW Caribbean near 13N79W. An upper level
low is centered N of Puerto Rico near 20N67W with axis extending
NW to the northern Bahamas. The upper level high is enhancing
the convection over the SW Caribbean mentioned with the tropical
wave. The upper level low is enhancing scattered moderate
convection over Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica. Expect over the
next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west with
convection. Also expect the upper level high to move west to
Nicaragua, while the upper level low moves west to eastern Cuba.


Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over Hispaniola
due to diurnal heating, low-level moisture, and the upper level
low. Expect similar convection over the next 24 hours.


Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer
to the tropical waves section for more details. Patches of
scattered showers are over the western Atlantic west of 64W to
include the Bahamas. A large 1032 mb high is over the central
Atlantic near 38N45W producing fair weather. Expect the tropical
waves to be the dominate features in the tropical Atlantic over
the next 48 hours.

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