Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 111746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10N-13.5N BETWEEN 73W-
77W. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH SUN. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N15W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N31W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 10W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-36W AND
FROM 3N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA W OF 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DIG S OVER THE GULF FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF COAST TO E TEXAS DOMINATING THE GULF
WATERS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DOT THE GULF GIVING THE
GULF FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W
ALONG 19N83W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE
IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLC OVER PUERTO RICO COVERING ALL BUT THE
FAR SE CARIBBEAN WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE E ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER NE VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N TO OVER THE
ISLANDS BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND E CUBA AND BANKING ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO WITHIN 30 NM ALONG
THE COAST S OF 11N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DRIFT NW THROUGH EARLY SAT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH PULSES TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SW
HAITI WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SHIFT W AWAY FROM HAITI THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES NW AND THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE ATLC AWAY FROM
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW AND N/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N53W ALONG 27N58W TO 25N63W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 22N71W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT INTO THE
N GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM N OF
BERMUDA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N46W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NW OF
THE AZORES. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 26N29W IS
SUPPORTING A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N31W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 24N27W 18N32N TO 16N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 24W-34W.
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT NW THROUGH SAT. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SUN AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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