Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 101805

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.


The remnants of former Tropical Storm Franklin are centered near
19.7N 99.2W at 10/1500 UTC or about 20 nm (35 KM) NNW of Mexico
City, moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35
kt. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from
13N-24N between 96W-102W. The National Meteorological Service of
Mexico registered about 12 inches of rain in Veracruz, Mexico
during a period of 24 hours ending this morning at 9 AM EDT. Other
cities with high rain amounts were Hidalgo with 4 inches, and
Puebla with 11 inches. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1012 mb
low near 09N33W. The wave axis extends from 17N33W to the low to
05N33W, and is moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of
mainly low to moderate vertical wind shear and is experiencing
extensive Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to its environment,
which is limiting convection to isolated showers from 05N to 10N
between 30W and 37W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
15N54W to inland Venezuela, moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave is in
a region of low vertical wind shear. Shallow moisture along with
upper level divergence support scattered showers and tstms S of
14N between 64W and 70W.

A tropical wave extends is in the W Caribbean with axis extending
from 17N85W across Honduras to EPAC waters near 07N86W, moving W
at 10 kt. Shallow moisture and upper level divergent flow support
scattered showers and tstms S of 18N W of 80W, including Costa
Rica and Nicaragua.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
11N28W to 06N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 06N42W to 06N57W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical wave...scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N
E of 33W...heavy showers are coming from the coast of Africa from
10N-13N E of 19W. Otherwise, a surface trough is to the SE of the
Windward Islands from 11N55W to 07N56W supporting isolated showers
within 150 nm either side of its axis.



Heavy showers and tstms are off the coast of NE Mexico associated
with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Franklin. Water vapor
imagery and model guidance show a middle to upper level ridge
covering the Gulf and providing subsident dry air that support
fair weather elsewhere. A surface ridge has started to build
across the basin with gentle to moderate SE flow, except S of 24N W
of 93W where latest scatterometer data show fresh winds.
Otherwise, a surface trough continue to support scattered showers
across southern Florida. This trough is forecast to continue
moving westward and bring increased cloudiness and precipitation
to the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf waters through Friday
morning. The trough is expected to stall across Florida Friday
night into early Saturday as surface ridging will anchor across
the north-central Gulf waters and provide fair weather and
tranquil conditions for the upcoming weekend.


An upper level low is over the western Caribbean centered over NE
Honduras. A tropical wave is underneath this low supporting
scattered moderate convection and tstms S of 19N W of 80W. The
eastern extension of the EPAC monsoon trough support similar
shower activity in the SW Caribbean S of 14N between 76W and 80W.
Another tropical wave moves over the SE basin supporting scattered
showers. For further details on the waves, see section above. A
surface trough is moving across W Cuba supporting isolated showers
and tstms N of 19N between 81W and the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise,
the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the
influence of mostly clear skies and overall fair conditions with
moderate to fresh trades prevailing. The upper level low is
forecast to move west and weaken over Central America while the
tropical wave moves into the East Pacific region.


Mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevail across the island.
However, an area of low pressure, currently NE of the Leeward
Islands will move N of the Island Friday afternoon supporting
showers through Saturday.


A surface trough extends from NE Florida adjacent waters to
southern Florida supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms
from 23N to 30N W of 71W. Over the north-central waters, with
lack of upper level support, a stationary front continues to
weaken along 30N39W to 26N50W to 25N64W. Isolated showers are
within 120 nm either side of the frontal boundary. An elongated
area of low pressure is anchored by a 1015 mb low near 19N60W,
which is supporting scattered showers and tstms from 17N to 24N
between 54W and 60W. This low is forecast to move NW within the
next 24 hours supporing rain to the NE Caribbean and Hispaniola.
For further details on tropical waves, see section above.

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