Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 200003

805 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological


The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W then continuing to 08N20W where
the ITCZ begins and then extends to 05N38W to over the north
South America coast near 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 05N to 11N W of 46W. Isolated showers are elsewhere
within 200 NM of the ITCZ and monsoon trough E of 46W.



A stationary front extends across southern Alabama, Mississippi
and SW Louisiana, then along Texas coastal waters from 29N92W to
26N97W. A diffluent environment aloft in the NW Gulf between
westerly flow and the base of an upper trough N of the area
along with moisture inflow from the Caribbean support heavy
showers and thunderstorms N of 26N W of 92W. Fair weather is
elsewhere. Scatterometer data depict gentle SE flow W of 90W and
gentle variable wind elsewhere. The exception is within 60 NM
off the northern Yucatan Peninsula where a surface trough inland
generates a tighter pressure gradient to support moderate to
fresh easterly flow. The front will prevail stationary over NW
Gulf waters through early Sunday. Then near sunrise it will
extend along the northern Gulf coastal waters before
transitioning into a cold front to move across NE waters and
the Florida peninsula through Monday.


High pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend S-SW across
the northern Caribbean, thus generating a tight pressure gradient
that support fresh to near gale force winds S of 16N between 70W
and 78W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The EPAC monsoon
trough support scattered to isolated showers within 60 NM off
the southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama coasts.
Fresh to strong trades are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate
trades prevail across the reminder of the basin. No major
changes to occur the next two days.


Isolated showers are across Haiti while fair weather is across
the remainder island. During the next two days, afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across the
island due to moisture being carried by the trades coupled with
daytime heating.


A diffluent environment aloft along with moisture inflow from
the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean continue to support
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over the SW N Atlantic
N of 26N W of 71W. In this region, a surface trough that extends
from 30N68W to 27N72W contributes to the convection. Otherwise,
the remainder basin continues to be dominated by surface ridging
anchored SW of the Azores islands.

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