Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 310554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN
THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 04N
TO 03N05W AND 04N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N12W TO
05N20W...02N33W 02N42W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...INTO
BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 06N SOUTHWARD FROM
40WEASTWARD...FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM
12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N17W
10N40W 04N51W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF 25N17W 04N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 26N85W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO 26N92W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR...KBBF.

MVFR...KBQX...KGVX...AND KVOA. MVFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN
MILTON AFTER BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 26N60W 23N66W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N66W TO 21N73W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 21N73W...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W...AND CURVING TO EASTERN
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W 26N48W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...TO THE NORTH
OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN
BERMUDA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AWAY FROM THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 16N86W...JAMAICA...18N69W...15N63W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY
FROM 12N NORTHWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.33 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 31/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA AT 31/0000
UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA
CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW FOR EACH DAY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA
AT THE START OF THE CURRENT TWO-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN WESTWARD WITH TIME. EXPECT CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...BECOMING WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT EAST-TO-
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 26N31W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 32N31W...TO 26N31W...TO 17N38W
AND 08N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W...AND
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 21N39W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 26N85W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND 26N92W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
26N85W TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N37W...TO 25N48W 21N60W...AND TO 14N62W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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