Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 170601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 33.5N 56.4W AT 17/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 429 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 31N-35N BETWEEN 55W-59W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N34W TO A 1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
10N35W AND MOVES WEST AT 15-20 KT. A SECOND LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL
WAVE AXIS IS EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTH METEOSAT SAL
TRACKING IMAGERY AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE INTRUSION OF
SAHARAN DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION.
MAINLY MODERATE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED COINCIDING WITH PATCHES OF HIGH
MOISTURE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 30W-37W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
33W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 360 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N53W TO 10N54W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT.
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN REGION
OF THE WAVE FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 52W-56W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM ALOFT HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
12N26W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N35W TO 9N47W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 9N47W TO 10N52W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-14N E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE
IS ANCHORED ON THE NW GULF NEAR 26N93W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 25N EAST
OF 88W AS WELL AS N OF 27N W OF 92W. ON THE SW GULF...A MIDDLE
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N92W TO
17N93W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W. A
SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF WATERS WED WHILE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS
WILL MOVE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS DURING THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 16N
BETWEEN 72W-83W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
ADJACENT WATERS. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBITS
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED
INTO THU.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BEING
SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE REGION AS WELL
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE
IS ANCHORED ON THE NW GULF NEAR 26N93W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF
26N W OF 74W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
DISCUSSED IN THE WAVES SECTION...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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