Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 170539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ
BEGINNING AT THE COAST NEAR 10N14W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG
3N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 32W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS TO OVER THE GULF
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 17/0300 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO 23N85W WHERE
IT BEGINS TO BACK UP AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR
21N89W TO NW GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF FRI PUSHING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HAITI INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA ALONG 16N70W TO 17N80W TO
INLAND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SW
ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI AND EXTREME SW
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS
HAITI INTO THE W ATLC AND WILL SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
BEFORE ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 17/0300 UTC NEAR 32N71W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 27N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 25B80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH ABOUT 800 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W
AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N26W TO 22N38W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT
WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SE AS A COLD FRONT SAT. SURFACE LOW
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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