Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
AXNT20 KNHC 201016
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
As of 20/0900 UTC, a fast moving cold front is over the W
Atlantic from 31N65W to 25N71W to the Straits of Florida near
24N80W. A tight surface pressure gradient is producing gale
force winds N of the front. Gale winds are N OF 30N W of front
to 74W, with seas to 14 ft. The gale is expected to end shortly
to near gale on 20/1200 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
00N20W to 01S28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 01S28W to the South American coast near 03S42W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03S-03N between
00W-06W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between
13W-16W, and from 01N-05N between 43W-53W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 0900 UTC, a 1023 mb high is centered over the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic surface
winds are near the high. Further S, 20 kt winds are along the NW
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fair weather is over the entire
Gulf. In the upper levels, the base of a longwave trough is over
Florida and the far E Gulf of Mexico, E of 83W. The remainder of
the Gulf has zonal flow. Strong subsidence is over the entire
area. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface high to
drift E to the NE Gulf.
A dissipating quasi-stationary front extends from E Cuba near
20N74W to E Honduras near 15N83W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the front. 15-20 kt NE winds are N of the front. 10-20
kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
Scattered showers are over the Windward Islands, Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Cuba, Nicaragua,
and Honduras. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered over the E Caribbean near 11N64W. Strong subsidence is
over the Caribbean. Expect the front to fully dissipate over the
next 24 hours, however, lingering scattered showers will remain
between Hispaniola and Honduras.
Scattered showers are presently over the island due to low level
moisture embedded in the tradewinds. Expect little change over
the next 24 hours.
As of 0900 UTC, a dissipating cold front extends over the W
Atlantic from 31N63W to 23N70W. A dissipating quasi-stationary
front continues to E Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the fronts. A fast moving cold front is further
W over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to 25N71W to the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm N of the
front. Broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds are elsewhere NW
of the front to 80W. A 1028 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 33N28W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 25N between 60W-80W
supporting the cold front, and producing upper level diffluence
over the northern portion of the dissipating cold front. An
upper level low is centered over the tropical Atlantic near
20N26W. Upper level diffluence E of this center is producing
scattered showers within 600 nm E of the center. Expect over the
next 24 hours for the cold front to move E, and merge with the
dissipating cold front. Expect the resultant cold front in 24
hours to extend from 31N54W to N of Hispaniola with showers.
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