Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 221725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Karl at 22/1500 UTC is near
25.0N 62.3W. Karl is moving northwestward, or 305 degrees, 15
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
within 200 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong elsewhere within 240 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant, and within 360 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Lisa at 22/1500 UTC is near 20.0N
34.0W. Lisa is moving northwestward, or 310 degrees, 6 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 300 nm of the center of Lisa in the NE quadrant. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 30W and 36W. Please
read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under
the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.
The METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast consists of a gale warning
the western part of the area that is called: CAPE VERDE.
The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is
valid until 22/1200 UTC, consists of: T.S. LISA leaving from the
western part of the CAPE VERDE area.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W from 19N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 11N to 14N between 79W and 82W, and along
the coast of Nicaragua from 12N to 14N.

An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 45W from 12N to 24N.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 120 nm to 180
nm on either side of the trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W, to 10N31W. Convective
precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to
08N between 14W and 16W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 12N
southward between 08W and 34W, and from 04N to 10N between 34W
and 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along the coast from the SW corner of
Louisiana to the deep south of Texas. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong within a 30 nm to 60 nm
radius of 28N97W.

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is near 23N94W.
Anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the south of
27N97W 25N89W 24N85W.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, elsewhere, to the north of the anticyclonic wind flow,
and on the western side of the South Carolina-to-Florida trough.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 24N to 26N between 88W and 92W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SE corner of the area,
related to the cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the
20N82W Caribbean Sea cyclonic center. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

A diurnal surface trough is in the SW corner of the area along
94W/95W from 22N to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Convective
precipitation: from 21N southward between 92W and 95W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N104W in
Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving through the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KMZG and KVQT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Rockport in some of the last observations.
rain and thunder in Victoria. light rain in Palacios and Bay
City has ended for the moment. MVFR at the Ellington Field in
Houston, and in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. LOUISIANA: MVFR
in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area, and in Baton
Rouge. in MISSISSIPPI and in ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA:
rain and thunder at the Key West Naval Air Station and at the
Key West International Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N82W,
between Jamaica and Cuba. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow
spans the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate elsewhere.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...2.29 in Bermuda,
1.02 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.72 in Kingston in Jamaica,
0.18 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.09 in St.Thomas in the Virgin
Islands, 0.06 in Trinidad, 0.05 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and
0.01 in Acapulco.

The monsoon trough is along 09N from 73W beyond 85W, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: scattered
strong from 11N to 14N between 79W and 82W, and along the coast
of Nicaragua from 12N to 14N.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N82W,
between Jamaica and Cuba. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans
Hispaniola from 70W eastward. Upper level NE wind flow is
reaching the rest of the island. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate around the island.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no
ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: rainshowers
are being reported. La Romana: rainshowers and thunder. Punta
Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no
ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that broad cyclonic wind
flow will move across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. There
will be some periods of variable winds, but everything still
will be generally cyclonic in nature. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that NW wind flow will be moving across the area at
the start of day one. Hispaniola will be in the middle of a NE-
to-SW oriented Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola trough, and an
anticyclonic circulation center that will be off the coast of SW
Haiti. The trough will push southwestward and be directly on top
of Hispaniola for a six-hour period, followed by a cyclonic
circulation center across the area. SW wind flow will cover
Hispaniola for the last 12 hours or so of day one. Hispaniola
will be to the north of a NE-to-SW oriented Atlantic Ocean-to-
Caribbean Sea ridge. Expect anticyclonic wind flow for all of
day two, as the ridge pushes across Hispaniola and settles there.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that cyclonic wind flow
will cover the area, with an inverted trough, during day one.
Day two consists of the inverted trough remaining across the
Windward Passage. Expect mostly SE wind flow, with some cyclonic
wind flow at times.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N80W off the coast of
South Carolina, to central Florida, into the SE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, toward the 20N82W northwestern Caribbean Sea
cyclonic circulation center. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 20N in the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea northward between 74W in the Atlantic
Ocean, and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N67W, about
375 nm to the west of T.D. KARL. Cyclonic wind flow covers the
area from 18N at the Greater Antilles to 28N in the Atlantic
Ocean between 65W and 74W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 18N to 30N between 65W and 74W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N40W.
Cyclonic wind flow is within 360 nm of the center in the E
semicircle, and within 500 nm of the center in the W semicircle.
Comparatively drier air is apparent in water vapor imagery.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 25N northward between Africa and 54W, and from 28N
northward between 66W and 74W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT



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