142
AXNT20 KNHC 091716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jul 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic near 41W from 06-17N,
moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is related to
this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles near 59W from
19N southward to Guyana, and moving west around 15 kt. No
significant convection is noted with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean near 82W from 21N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is ongoing near the wave axis over the far NW Caribbean including
the Yucatan Channel.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then continues
to 05N41W. The ITCZ continues west-northwestward from 05N41W to
06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N and
E of 28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with the
northern portion of a passing tropical wave, as well as a
developing surface trough in the SE Bay of Campeche is triggering
scattered to numerous strong convection over the Bay of Campeche,
as well as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
the Gulf S of 27N. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high is interacting with
the developing surface trough to induce fresh to strong E winds in
the SE Bay of Campeche, with locally stronger winds in areas of
convection. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the Gulf
between 21-25N, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight
seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast,


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving into the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is observed off the SW coast of
Cuba. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are ongoing in
the central to SW Caribbean per recent altimeter and buoy data.
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are in the eastern
Caribbean, with moderate ENE winds and slight seas elsewhere.

For the forecast,


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving into the basin.

Enhanced by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, two surface
troughs are producing scattered heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms over portions of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos,
and the adjacent waters from 24-31N between 72-77W.

A pair of 1025 mb highs north of the area extend ridging across
much of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across much of the
Atlantic N of 10N. Winds are fresh to strong along the northern
coast of Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos and southern
Bahamas. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing gentle to
moderate trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W,


$$
Ramos