Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 131706

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1206 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N19W to 01N40W to the South American coast near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 06N
E of 16W. Scattered moderate convection is south of 06N between
16W and 50W.



A cold front extends across northern Florida to 30N83W to 29N89W,
where it transitions to a stationary front to 29N95W. Dense fog is
noted near the stationary front over the northwestern Gulf.
Northwest winds of 15 to 20 kt are north of the front. A pre-
frontal trough extends from the western Atlantic, across central
Florida, to the east central Gulf, and is associated with a
northwesterly wind shift to the north of the trough. Mainly
moderate easterly winds cover the remainder of the Gulf basin
this morning. The only other notable feature is a thermal trough
void of convection over the Bay of Campeche. Over the next 24
hours the cold front over the northeast Gulf will reach the
southeast Gulf while weakening. The stationary front will
transition to a warm front and lift north of the northwestern Gulf


The pressure pattern across the Caribbean is weakening today as
high pressure north of the region begins to dissipate. This is
resulting in a relaxing of the trade winds to 10 to 15 kt across
the majority of the Caribbean, except over the south central
Caribbean where winds are 20 to 25 kt. The only notable
precipitation is scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
streaming in lingering moisture from a dissipated frontal boundary
from Hispaniola to Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras. Little change
is expected over the next 24 hours.


Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are over
Hispaniola due to a dissipating stationary front. Expect the
showers to decrease in coverage over the next 24 hours once the
front dissipates.


A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N77W and extends
across northern Florida near St. Augustine. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 31N73W to 27N81W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm south of the front. A dissipating
1019 mb high is centered near 25N67W. Farther east, a cold front
enters the area of discussion near 31N30W and transitions to a
stationary front near 28N37W before reaching a 1010 mb low near
29N41W. A cold front extends from the low to 22N53W and then
transitions to a dissipating stationary front to the Dominican
Republic. High pressure of 1017 mb centered near 22N35W dominates
the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. Over the next
24 hours the high over the western Atlantic will dissipate while
the cold front sweeps southeastward over the region.

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