Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 212345

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
01N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 01N21W to
04S38W. Isolated moderate convection is observed between 100 nm of
these boundaries between 12W-22W.



A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1023 mb
high centered near 27N90W. With this, fair weather prevails across
the whole area. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow across the Gulf waters. The high is forecast to
drift northwest with little change in the overall wind pattern
through Wednesday. Winds will increase by the end of the week as
an area of low pressure develops across the Front Range and
central Plains.


Dry and stable air overall is providing for a lack of any
significant deep convection and mostly tranquil surface conditions
at this time. A few areas of isolated showers however are noted
on satellite imagery across the far southwestern waters south of
16N west of 80W, affecting portions of Honduras, Nicaragua, and
Costa Rica. A stationary front terminates across north-central
Hispaniola supporting isolated showers across the island.
Moderate to occasional fresh trades prevail across the basin and
are expected to persist through Thursday night.


The tail end of a stationary front extends from the central
Atlantic near 24N60W to the northern coast of Hispaniola near
20N70W. Low-level moisture convergence associated with the front
continues to provide focus for isolated showers generally N of 17N
between 68W-74W. The front is expected to become diffuse by late
Wednesday. However, any lingering remnant boundary or surface
troughing will continue supporting isolated shower activity
through the remainder of the week.


A frontal system was analyzed as a cold front from 32N50W to
25N58W, then as a stationary front from that point to northern
Hispaniola near 20N70W. Isolated showers are occurring along and
east of the front mainly north of 25N. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin. Expect for the fronts to weaken
within the next 24 hours. Little change is expected elsewhere.

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