Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 192353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 2100 UTC, the Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is now
Tropical Storm Bret. Its center is located near 9.4N/59.8W, moving
west-northwest at 26 kt. Estimated minimum pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Scattered
to numerous moderate convection is from 05N-16N between 56W-64W.
Bret is expected to continue as a T.S. through at least the next
24 hours, then it will weaken and dissipate by Thursday. Please
read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is centered over the Gulf of
Mexico near 24.7N/88.7W. Its minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.
A surface trough extends from 29N85W to the low to 16N88W. Winds
of 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt are noted over the northeast quadrant
of the low. A broad area of numerous showers and thunderstorms
extends across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico mainly
east of 89W. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, and the Intermediate
Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N30W to 02N31W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24
hours. CIRA LPW imagery shows a moderate moist environment with
patches of dry air mainly north of 06N associated with Saharan air
and dust intrusion. There is no convection associated with the
wave at the moment.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 11N41W to 03N41W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24
hours. Extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust prevails in
this wave`s environment limiting significant convection. A few
showers are observed along the wave`s axis.

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N66W to 11N67W, moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24
hours. Shallow moisture and an upper-level divergent environment
support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern
portion of the wave affection Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage, and
eastern Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
14N17W to 06N38W. The ITCZ extends from 05N42W to 04N52W. Two
tropical waves are embedded within the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. NO
significant convection is observed at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Potential T.C. Three has developed across the central Gulf.
Please refer to the section above for details. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are expected to continue over the
Yucatan Peninsula, eastern Gulf, western Cuba and western
Caribbean during the next day or two. Elsewhere, gentle to
locally fresh northerly winds are west of 90W along with fair
weather being supported by dry air subsidence from aloft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are prevailing across
the far west Caribbean as Potential T.C. Three remains centered
over the Gulf of Mexico. This activity is affecting the Yucatan
Peninsula and Channel, western Cuba and the northern portion of
Central America. To the east, a tropical wave is enhancing
convection across the northeast Caribbean including Puerto Rico,
the Mona Passage and eastern Hispaniola. Refer to the section
above for more details. Over the southwest Caribbean, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are south of 15N between 77W-81W
supported by the Monsoon Trough. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the island. This activity
will move across the island through the next 24 hours as the wave
moves west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details. Elsewhere, a broad high pressure
covers the entire Atlantic anchored by a 1032 mb high north of
the area. A weak cold front extends from 31N27W to 28N35W to
30N51W with no significant convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA




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