Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 240538

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

A broad area of low pressure focused on a 1002 mb centered across
the SW North Atlc waters near 28N78W is producing near gale to
gale force E-SE winds generally N of an occluded front extending
from the low center to the triple point near 29N74W. From the
triple point...a cold front extends S-SW to 26N73W to eastern Cuba
near 20N76W to 15N81W in the western Caribbean Sea. A warm front
also extends from the triple point to 27N70W. The gale force
conditions are expected to persist through 24/1800 UTC as the
system eventually tracks N of the discussion area by Friday night.
See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
02N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
02N16W to the Equator near 30W and along the Equator to 40W.
Scattered moderate convection is S of 03N between 19W-26W.
Isolated moderate convection is S of 03N between 30W-45W.


Much of the Gulf basin is under the influence of a middle to upper
level ridge providing dry air and subsidence this evening. A weak
surface ridge results with axis across the central Gulf along 90W.
Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail with a few isolated
showers possible E of 90W as the Special Features low pressure
area continues to move eastward across the SW North Atlc region. W
of 90W...moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring as a developed
area of low pressure moves across the mid-Mississippi River
valley. The associated cold front with this low pressure system to
the N is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts
Friday night providing another round of fresh N-NE winds in its
wake across the basin during the weekend.

Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor over
the Caribbean this evening supporting a cold front extending
across eastern Cuba from 20N76W SW to 15N81W. A pre-frontal
surface trough also extends from across western Hispaniola near
20N73W to 13N78W. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm
either side of a line from 20N72W to 13N80W. Isolated showers are
also occurring N of 17N in association with the cold front and
southwestern periphery of the Special Features low pressure system
centered across the SW North Atlc region. With the frontal system
across the north-central portion of the basin...the usual trade
wind flow is disrupted for the time being keeping winds generally
light to moderate. Within mostly E-SE winds E of the surface
trough boundary...isolated showers are occurring across the
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico mainly NE of a line from 13N61W to
the Mona Passage near 18N67W. The cold front is expected to drift
eastward and move N of the region by Friday night late with a
more normal trade wind synoptic pattern expected across the basin
by Saturday.

Isolated showers are expected to continue as a surface trough
extends across the Turks and Caicos islands near 22N72W to 13N78W
across western portions of the island. Widely scattered showers
are occurring within 180 nm E of the boundary...and this includes
the northern and southern adjacent coastal waters. A cold front
still remains to the W across eastern Cuba and will gradually
slide eastward and lift NE of the Windward Passage region during
the day Friday and Friday night. Conditions are expected to
improve by Saturday.

The Special Features occluded low pressure area continues to
influence much of the SW North Atlc waters W of 65W. Scattered
to numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring generally N
of 23N between 64W-76W. Aside from the near gale to gale force
winds occurring to the NE of the occlusion...fresh to strong
southerly winds are occurring E of the cold front extending from
28N74W to 26N73W to eastern Cuba near 20N77W. The low is expected
to move NE of the discussion area by Saturday. To the E...another
cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N40W to 24N48W
becoming stationary to 20N60W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring N of 26N within 90 nm E of the front...with
isolated showers occurring elsewhere within 120 nm either side of
the boundary. Finally...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high
centered SE of the Azores near 37W25W.

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