000
AXNT20 KNHC 150555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF FROM
26N-28N W OF 95W ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF. THESE GALE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W
GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH STORM WINDS EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF
TIME TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N13W TO 1N17W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 32W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES DIPS S OVER N
MEXICO CLIPPING THE FAR NW GULF AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT AT 15/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR
ATCHAFALAYA BAY ALONG 25N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N
OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 85W-93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT AND FROM 21N TO THE FRONT W OF 95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WATERS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E THROUGH
TONIGHT GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF THE FRONT CLEAR
SKIES. COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR SUNRISE TODAY AND STALL
OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF AROUND SUNRISE WED. MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE GULF ON WED AND WED NIGHT INCREASING
TO A STRONG BREEZE OVER THE NE GULF ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND EXTENDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM
HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS GIVING THE S CARIBBEAN
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA W OF
70W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
14N E OF 67W AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 75W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BRIEFLY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THEN STALL
ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN ON LATER TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER HISPANIOLA W OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E
TODAY INTO WED AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY. THE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ON
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 23N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-30N W OF 55W TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE
SURFACE TROUGH. ONE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N47W TO MOROCCO AFRICA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST ON
TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO THE CAY SAL
BANK ON WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW