Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 181205

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.


...Atlantic Gale Warning...

The low pressure currently located east of the N Carolina`s coast
will continue to move eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean
while deepening. Gale-force winds associated with this low
pressure system have developed north of 30N within 180 nm west of
a cold front that extends from the low to 30N73W SW across the
northern Bahamas to the Florida Straits and then into the Yucatan
Peninsula. Winds will diminish below gale force tonight. However,
near gale-force winds will prevail through early Friday morning as
the front weaken southeast of the Bahamas. Please read the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast,
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N11W to
and continues to 02N16W. The ITCZ begins near 06N16W and continues
along 0N30W to 02N40W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 07N between 07W and 15W and from 0N to 05N
between 28W and 48W.



A surface ridge has established across the Gulf in the wake of the
cold front that currently extends across the SW N Atlc to the
Florida Straits to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the
basin. Winds will slightly weaken as the pressure gradient
relaxes across the basin during the next 24 hours. Fresh to
locally strong southerly flow will set-up again across the western
Gulf and persist early this weekend ahead on the next cold front
forecast to reach the Texas coast Sunday night.


The remnants of a stationary front were analyzed as a surface
trough that extends across the western Caribbean from 19N85W to
12N82W. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms
are noted west of 80W with this trough affecting the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture carried by
the trade wind flow are seen across the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea inducing showers. Moderate to fresh northeast winds
are seen in the lee of Cuba, and within about 60 nm of the coast
of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds are near the coast of
Colombia. The cold front currently moving across the Gulf of
Mexico will reach the northwest Caribbean this morning, then
extend from central Cuba to Honduras by tonight. Fresh to strong
winds and widespread showers are expected behind the front. Strong
trade winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia coast on Friday
night and then expand across much of the central Caribbean over
the weekend as high pressure builds north of the area.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers will prevail for the next day or so over the island due
to the influence of a ridge. Computer models show an increasing of
moisture across Hispaniola toward the end of the work-week as a
cold front approaches from the west. Fresh northeast winds are
expected across the Windward Passage today through Saturday night
as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the wake
of the above mentioned front.


A strong cold front is moving across the west Atlantic from 31N77W
to 28N80W. See the Special Features section for more details
about this front and the Gale Warning in effect. To the east, a
forming cold front has developed extending from a 1014 mb surface
low near 34N73W to 24N75W. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of these features mainly west of 70W. A surface trough
extends from 30N65W to 25N65W with minimal convection at this
time. An upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a trough
that extends from 31N50W to a 1021 mb low near 28N47W to 21N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 36W-
46W. The strong high pressure near Azores dominates most of the
east and central Atlantic, and will move little through this

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