Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 252345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY MON AFTERNOON WITHIN 180
NM E AND240 NM W OF COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MON. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N24W 3N30W ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA 39W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 32N-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF
AND THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER THE GULF IS
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING A PORTION OF THE GULF. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 24N95W
AND A SERIES OF HIGHS INLAND OVER THE PLAIN STATES/E ROCKIES.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC
AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE W GULF BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM THE NW
GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BLOCKING THE COLD FRONTS TO THE E
GULF THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT AND RACE SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE E GULF ON TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NE MEXICO ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA
NEAR CAMAGUEY ALONG 18N84W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY MON. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING REACHING
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA EARLY TUE. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP E OF NICARAGUA ON TUE AND
WED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NE TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULSE OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUE WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE CARIBBEAN MON. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON TUE INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS ALONG
26N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N74W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR CAMAGUEY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N62W GIVING THE W ATLC W FLOW
ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N39W
ALONG 27N40W TO 24N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N40W TO
22N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH SPLIT AND IS ANCHORED WELL N
OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON MON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MON REACHING
FROM 32N72W TO NW CUBA MON EVENING AND REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO
WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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