


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
034 AXNT20 KNHC 281808 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Jun 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Bay of Campeche (Invest AL91): Recent surface observations, satellite imagery, and radar data from Mexico suggests a well-defined surface circulation is developing with the area of low pressure located in the Bay of Campeche near the Mexican coastline. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity is also starting to show signs of organization. If these trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form, possibly as soon as this afternoon, in the Bay of Campeche. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward this weekend towards eastern Mexico, ultimately moving inland by Monday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, and interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for portions of the Mexican Gulf coast as soon as this afternoon. There is a HIGH chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours. For more information on possible tropical development of this system, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. There is also potential for flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in hilly terrain. The heaviest rainfall is forecast in the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more information on the potential for flooding and heavy rainfall. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W across the western Cabo Verde Islands from 18N southward, moving W at 5-10 kt. Convection is described in the below ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. Another east Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 47W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A well-defined tropical wave is analyzed across the Lesser Antilles along 62W, from 22N southward. Scattered moderate convection is across the Leeward Islands, from 15N to 18N between 60W and 64W. The most recent satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to locally strong trades east of the wave axis to 55W. The tropical wave is moving westward at around 10-15 kt. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Dakar, Senegal to 08N28W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N28W to 07N44W and from 07N50W to 07N57W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of both boundaries. GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on low pressure (Invest AL91) that will bring heavy rains to portions of SW Mexico and has a MEDIUM chance of tropical cyclone formation. Elsewhere outside of the Bay of Campeche, moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail with 3-5 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is affecting the NE Gulf waters, from 27N to 30N east of 85W. The weather across the Gulf outside of the Bay of Campeche is guided by subtropical Atlantic high pressure centered just NE of the Bahamas. For the forecast, aside from the Bay of Campeche, a surface ridge will dominate the northern Gulf waters through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE moving across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean. A tight pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean due to subtropical Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in NW Colombia. The latest satellite scatterometer data detected fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, where seas are 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas. Fresh winds are also noted in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and SW Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on the TROPICAL WAVES moving across the basin. 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 29N74W and 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 28N45W. Together, these high pressures dominate most of the tropical Atlantic basin, providing for moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas. South of 20N, trades may reach locally fresh speeds. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region into late next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. $$ Mahoney