Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160604

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front entering the NW Gulf later today will reach
from the Florida panhandle to just north of Tampico Mexico this
evening, then move SE of the area Wed. Northerly winds to gale
force are possible near Tampico and Veracruz Tue night and Wed,
and frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the NW waters
today. Strong high pressure will follow the front.

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore
Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W
to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 01N44W. Scattered
moderate convection from the equator to 04N between 31W and 48W.



A ridge of high pressure extends across the region, producing
mainly gentle to moderate NE-E winds, except fresh NE winds in
the SE Gulf. Stratocumulus clouds over the Gulf waters are more
concentrated in the southern Gulf. Persistent low clouds are
banked up against the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico. The ridge
will slowly move E overnight. A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf this afternoon, followed by strong high pressure. Please
see Special Features section for more details.


A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba across Jamaica to
near Costa Rica. Scattered showers are noted in association with
the frontal boundary S of 16N. Stratocumulus clouds are observed
behind the front over the NW Caribbean. Partly cloudy skies and
isolated showers are elsewhere E of the front. Scatterometer
data shows fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front, and
moderate trade winds east of the boundary. Moisture associated
with the remnants of the front will drift westward through Wed,
increasing the likelihood of showers over Central America and
the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW
Colombia coast each night through Fri night. Large NE swell will
maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters today.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers will prevail for the next couple of days. A surface
trough passing N of Puerto Rico will produce little convection.


A stationary front extends from 31N68W across the Bahamas to
eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Strong N to NE winds W of the front
will gradually diminish today as the front weakens. A strong
cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed, then weaken
as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening,
then become a westward moving trough over the far SE waters Fri.
Strong high pres behind the front will induce strong northerly
winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas on Thursday.

High pressure dominates the remainder of the ocean to Africa.
Scatterometer data indicates a large area of fresh to strong
trades north of 15N between 20W-40W. A surface trough associated
with an upper-level low extends from 30N64W to 22N65W. Another
surface trough is SE of an upper-level low centered near 27N44W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated
with this system is found from 26N-29N between 36W-45W.

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