Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 301054

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 34N52W supporting a 986 mb surface low
centered near 35N51W. The occlusion associated with the low
extends to a triple point near 35N48W and a warm front SE to
31N41W. The cold front extends from the triple point S-SW to
30N48W to 20N57W into the NE Caribbean Sea becoming stationary to
15N68W. Near gale to gale force winds are occurring across the
discussion area generally N of 27N between 56W and the cold front
with storm force winds occurring N of the area from 31N-35N
between 53W-55W. The low is forecast to move N-NE through
Thursday night and become absorbed with a forecast hurricane
force 965 mb low centered near 43N52W. The fully absorbed low
pressure area is forecast to be producing hurricane force winds
within 300 nm of center in the SW semicircle well N of the
discussion area. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts
KWBC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
02N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
02N24W to the Equator near 27W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 01N-08N between 06W-17W.


Middle to upper level southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the
Gulf this morning with a vigorous middle to upper level low noted
on water vapor imagery over the central CONUS. The approaching
upper level troughing dips southward over much of Texas and
northern Mexico. While the associated cold front remains across
interior portions of SE Texas...a pre-frontal surface trough
extends from Lake Charles Louisiana SW to near 28N96W. This
surface trough is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms
occurring across the NW Gulf waters N of 27N between 91W-95W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of
southerly return flow on the western periphery of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1018 mb high centered across the SW North Atlc near
28N77W. Moderate to occasional strong S-SE winds prevail and by
late Thursday the cold front emerges off the Texas
and Louisiana coasts...winds will shift northerly through
Thursday night. The front is then forecast to gradually weaken as
it moves eastward and becomes diffuse during the weekend.

Conditions remain relatively tranquil across the basin this
morning as mostly dry west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails. One
exception is a dissipating stationary front extending from near
Barbuda to 15N68W. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized
across the eastern Caribbean in the vicinity of the front
generating isolated showers generally S of 16N between 63W-77W.
Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades continue and are expected to
persist through the upcoming weekend into Monday.

Strong subsidence is noted on water vapor imagery over the island
this morning...however low-level moisture and cloudiness
continues to impact central portions of the island with possible
isolated shower activity generally between 69W-72W.

The main feature in the Atlc is the Special Features low centered
near 35N51W. Aside from the gale force wind field associated with
it across the discussion area...scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring within 150 nm either side of a line from
32N42W to 23N51W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc remains
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high
centered N of the Bahamas near 28N77W. To the north...a cold front
extends from near Bermuda SW to 29N73W then NW as a stationary
front to the Georgia coast near 31N81W. Isolated showers are
possible within 30 nm either side of the front. The eastern Atlc
remains under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021
mb high centered near 29N28W.

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