Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 161734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE ITCZ OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
27W TO 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 40W-46W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE W GULF OF
MEXICO FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THEN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AND STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT N AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT.  THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...20-25 KT...CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N73W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N68W
TO HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N33W TO 20N58W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 49W-61W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT THEN WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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