Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 221756

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


A 989 mb area of low pressure across the western North Atlc
extends a cold front into the discussion area near 32N49W. The
front continues SW to 25N52W to 19N61W. Gale force SW winds are
occurring N of 27N within 210 nm E of the front. The gale force
conditions are expected to move N of the area by 23/0600 UTC.
See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N09W to
02N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
02N16W to 01N30W to 01N40W to the South American coast near
01S47W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N
between 10W-17W, and from 00N-04N between 20W-30W.



As of 1500 UTC, a 1005 mb low is centered over the NE Gulf of
Mexico near 30N84W. A cold front extends S to 28N83W to the SE
Gulf near 24N83W to W Cuba near 22N84W. Radar imagery shows
scattered moderate convection and showers E of front to 80W to
include most of Florida. The remainder of the Gulf has fair
weather, with 10-20 kt W to NW surface winds. In the upper
levels, an upper level low is centered over S Georgia near
31N84W. Upper level diffluence is over S Florida and the W
Atlantic. All of Florida has upper level moisture, while the
remainder of the Gulf has strong subsidence. Expect the cold
front to move across Florida and into the SW North Atlc waters
Thursday morning. Also expect the next cold front to move off
the Texas and Louisiana coast Friday night into early Saturday.


The tail-end of a cold front extends from W Cuba at 22N84W to
the Yucatan Peninsula at 21N87W to 21N89W. A prefrontal trough
extends from the NW Caribbean at 22N82W to N Honduras at 16N87W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. More scattered
showers are over Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. A very
weak surface pressure gradient is over the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea with 5-15 kt winds. Scattered showers are noted
over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands. In the
upper levels, ridging is over the W Caribbean and Central
America. The base of an upper level trough is over the E
Caribbean N of 10N and E of 70W. Strong subsidence covers the
entire Caribbean and Central America. Expect in 24 hours for the
cold front to extend from E Cuba to S Nicaragua with scattered
moderate convection and showers.


Scattered showers are over Hispaniola with 5-10 kt easterly
flow. Expect in 24 hours for the prefrontal convection to be
over the Windward Passage. Expect the next 48 hours to have
convection over Hispaniola with frontal passage.


A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N49W to 25N52W
to 19N61W with scattered moderate convection within 150 nm E of
front N of 25N. A gale is E of the front N of 27N. See above. A
prefrontal trough extends from 22N53W to 13N59W. Scattered
showers are within 180 nm E of the trough. A 1029 mb high is
centered over the Azores near 40N25W with a ridge axis extending
S to the E Atlantic near 15N35W. Of note in the upper levels,
upper level diffluence is over the W Atlantic N of 22N and W of
75W to Florida. An upper level trough is over the central
Atlantic N of 15N between 45W-65W supporting the central
Atlantic cold front. Expect in 24 hours for a 1005 mb low to be
over Cocoa Beach Florida with a cold front extending to the N
Bahamas to central Cuba with convection. Also expect in 24 hours
for the central Atlantic cold front to extend from 32N43W to
20N55W to the Leeward Islands with convection and showers.

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