Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 192331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 44W
from 3N-12N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weakening 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the southwest Atlantic/north Caribbean extends
along 69W from 16N-26N moving northwest near 25 kt over the past
24 hours. Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted
in the global models and within a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are from 24N-28N between 67W-72W.

Tropical wave that was in the west Caribbean extends over the
Yucatan peninsula along 89W south of 21N into the east Pacific
region moving west-northwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep
convection in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico basins.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W and continues south of the Cape Verde
Islands along 12N24W 10N29W to 9N35W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to east of the tropical wave near 10N43W then resumes
west of the wave near 11N45W along 11N53W to Trinidad near
10N61W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 7N-10N
between 28W-32W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 6N-11N between 19W-25W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are from 11N-15N between 52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large upper ridge anchored over Kansas covers most of the Gulf
of Mexico with a ridge axis extending across Georgia into the
west Atlantic. A cutoff upper low is along the north coast of
the Yucatan covering the remainder of the Gulf south of 25N east
of 93W with an upper trough axis extending east through the
Straits of Florida and supporting a surface trough that extends
along 93W south of 23N to inland over south Mexico. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are south 26N west of the
surface trough and from 25N-29N east of 84W to inland over the
Florida peninsula. Isolated showers and thunderstorms dot the
remainder of the Gulf this evening. A surface ridge covers the
Gulf north of 24N anchored by a 1023 mb high over central
Alabama. The surface ridge will persist through Wednesday then
weaken Thursday through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over the southwest Caribbean near
13N81W providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from 11N-18N between 81W-87W
including portions of Central America. The monsoon trough
extends over Panama and Costa Rica generating isolated showers
and thunderstorms south of 10N between 77W-82W. Afternoon
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed
inland over Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba this evening. These
showers are moving northwest into the Caribbean waters. The
remainder of the Caribbean is under fair skies this evening. The
tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge
and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to
strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean that will
continue through the week. The tropical wave over the north
Caribbean will reach the northwest Caribbean Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Afternoon scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along
the north coast of the island this evening. Afternoon or evening
showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday.
Thursday will usher in additional moisture to bring a increase
in showers and possible thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge that covers the Gulf of Mexico extends a ridge
axis across Georgia into the west Atlantic to 28N75W. The upper
trough over the south Gulf of Mexico extends through the Straits
of Florida into the southwest Atlantic near 27N74W. A surface
trough extends along 73W from 26N-32N with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 30N-32N between 69W-73W and isolated
showers and thunderstorms from 25N-28N between 72W-75W. A second
surface trough is to the south extending from 24N74W across the
Bahamas and Cuba to 20N78W with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 210 nm northwest of the trough axis.
Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
with a surface ridge extending from a 1029 mb high in the north-
central Atlantic near 34N45W to 31N70W then continuing west to
inland over the southeast CONUS. This surface ridge will persist
through Wednesday then weaken through the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW



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