Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 230544

205 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


Tropical wave extends from 10N18W to 00N19W moving west at 10
kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery indicate the wave is
in a low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850
mb. This moisture along with diffluent flow aloft support
isolated showers within 180 nm either side of the wave axis.

Tropical wave extends from 09N40W to 00N41W moving west at 10
kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water
imagery. The wave also coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough
and associated positive relative vorticity maximum.  Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

Tropical wave extends from 12N62W to 05N63W moving west at 15
kt. This wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. A
0114 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted this wave`s wind
shifts over the Windward Islands.  Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough extends over western Africa to the Tropical
Atlantic near 08N13W to 06N18W.  The ITCZ begins west of a
tropical wave at 05N22W and extends to 04N39W.  The ITCZ resumes
west of another tropical wave at 05N43W and extends to the coast
of South America near 03N51W.  Isolated moderate convection is
from 02N-05N between 20W-30W.



A cold front extends from central Florida near 28N80W to the E
Gulf near 27N85W.  A stationary front continues to the central
Gulf at 27N90W and to the W Gulf at 28N96W.  Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the fronts over the E Gulf east of 90W.  10
kt northerly winds are north of the front. A 1015 mb high is
centered over the SE Gulf near 25N85W.  10 kt anticyclonic winds
are over the SE Gulf. Further west, scattered moderate
convection is over NE Mexico and the W Gulf from 22N-26N between
96W-99W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
eastern CONUS with an axis along 78W. Upper level diffluence
east of the trough is enhancing convection over the western
Atlantic. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to dip south to
South Florida while the stationary front over the Gulf
dissipates.  Also expect over the next 24 hours for an upper
level low to move off the coast of North Carolina near 37N74W.


The surface pressure gradient over the central and western
Caribbean Sea is relatively tight producing 15-25 kt tradewinds.
Strongest winds are along the coast of N Venezuela.  A 1008 mb
low is centered over N Colombia near 09N75W.  Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 06N-09N between 75W-79W.
Scattered moderate convection is inland over W Honduras, El
Salvador, and Guatemala.  Scattered showers remain over central
and E Cuba.  Elsewhere scattered showers are over the Windward
Islands.  In the upper levels zonal flow prevails with strong
subsidence from 12N-20N.  Expect over the next 24 hours for an
increase of showers over the central Caribbean.


Presently scattered showers have ended over the island.  Expect
another day of scattered showers for Monday especially during
the afternoon and evening hours due to surface moisture inflow
from the tropical Atlantic.


A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N76W to central
Florida at 28N80W.  Clusters of scattered moderate convection
are north of 25N between 65W-80W.  Farther east, a cold front
extends from 31N34W to 29N43W.  A stationary front continues to
beyond 31N52W.  Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
fronts.  A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic
near 26N39W with mostly fair weather.  Expect in 24 hours for a
western Atlantic cold front to be extend from 31N70W to South
Florida.  Also expect the central Atlantic front to dissipate.

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