Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 192349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

On 19/2100 UTC, the center of Subtropical Depression ONE is near
32.4N 40.0W. The subtropical depression is moving north at 10
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Widely scattered moderate convection is within 360 nm of the NE
quadrant of the low center. Please read the PUBLIC ADVISORIES
about Subtropical Depression ONE, that are issued under the WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Subtropical Depression ONE are issued
under the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT1.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends across the western Africa coast
from 07N12W to 02N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
continues from 02N14W to 02S20W to 00N35W to the South American
coast near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 1N-6N
between 17W-20W, and from 02N-05N between 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico. An embedded
surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 25N90W to 22N92W to 18N92W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. 10-20 kt E to
SE flow is over the Gulf with strongest winds over the Straits of
Florida. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
the W Gulf of Mexico near 24N92W. Upper level diffluence E of the
low is producing scattered showers over the E Gulf. Expect over
the next 24 hours for little change over the surface pattern,
while in the upper levels the low over the W Gulf will drift E to
the south central Gulf.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the strongest
winds over the north central Caribbean. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over NW Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Costa
Rica, S Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean, Cuba,
Jamaica, Hispaniola, S of Puerto Rico, and the Windward Islands.
In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Caribbean Sea with
axis along 70W. Upper level moisture is over the entire Caribbean.
Broken high clouds covers the NW Caribbean. Expect little change
over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over the island. Expect over the
next 24 hours for more scattered showers to advect over the
island from the east with the tradewind flow. Also expect
scattered moderate convection to also form due to local
instability.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging is over the W Atlantic. A 996 mb subtropical low
is centered over the central Atlantic near 32.4N40.0W. The low is
forecast to move N and dissipate over the next 24 hours. See
above. Further E, scattered showers are noted over the Canary
Islands. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low is
centered over the subtropical low resulting in low upper level
pressure N of 20N between 30W-55W. Expect over the next 24 hours
for the subtropical low to move N and decrease the winds over the
north central Atlantic from 28N-31N to 20 knots.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa




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