Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 190531

205 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 6N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 3N32W 5N46W to inland over South America near
4N51W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are within 120/150 NM north of ITCZ between 23W-33W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 8N to the
coast of southwest Africa east of 4W to across the Prime
Meridian and within 60 nm of a line from 6N37W to 9N46W.



A broad upper ridge anchored over Guatemala covers the Gulf of
Mexico with westerly winds aloft. A shortwave upper trough is
just off the east coast of florida and coupled with lingering
low level moisture is generating scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms south of 28N east of 85W to over the Florida
peninsula. A diurnal surface trough extends from 23N88W to
inland over the Yucatan Peninsula near Merida to northwest
Guatemala is generating isolated showers/thunderstorms within 45
nm of the trough over the Gulf waters. A broad low amplitude
upper trough covers the northeast CONUS supporting a frontal
boundary that extends inland over the north Gulf coast from
Louisiana to Texas. A weak surface ridge extends from the west
Atlantic across south Florida to over the east Gulf. This weak
surface ridge will maintain southeast return flow over the Gulf
through Saturday. A weak cold front will move into the northwest
Gulf tonight through Thursday then stall and dissipate late
Thursday. Return flow is forecast to strengthen briefly on
Friday before diminishing again late Friday and Saturday.


The broad upper ridge anchored over Guatemala covers the west
Caribbean to 75W with near zonal westerly flow aloft across the
remainder of the Caribbean basin. A diurnal surface trough that
extends from the Gulf of Mexico to inland over the Yucatan
Peninsula near Merida to northwest Guatemala is generating
scattered showers/thunderstorms inland over the Yucatan with
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms south of
21N west of 86W. Afternoon showers/thunderstorms that developed
inland over Hispaniola and Cuba have weakened with only isolated
showers remaining. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are
across the southwest Caribbean south of 10N between 79W-82W.
This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean under clear skies
tonight. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean
through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the
Gulf of Honduras through Saturday.


Isolated showers, remnants of the afternoon thunderstorms,
remain across the west portion of the island tonight west of
70W. Moisture will remain limited through Friday and increase
again on Saturday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms could
still develop due to the strong easterly trade winds coupled
with daytime heating.


A shortwave upper trough extends from off the Georgia coast to
just east of the Florida peninsula to the Bahamas near 25N77W
generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms south of 27N
west of 76W. A cold front extends into the west Atlantic near
32N73W to 31N74W where a surface trough continues to 28N79W with
isolated showers within 60 NM of the front/trough. The remainder
of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored
by a 1032 mb high near 35N32W and a 1031 mb high near 32N41W and
extending a ridge axis southwest through 30N54W to across south
Florida and into the east Gulf of Mexico. The west Atlantic cold
front will shift southeast across the northern waters tonight.
The front will weaken and stall Thursday and Friday.

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