Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 251651

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone in
western Africa at 07N12W to 04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone continues from 04N18W to 00N35W to 01N42W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
00N to 02N between 17W and 21W and from 01S to 03N between 47W
and 51W.



A weakening frontal boundary crosses the southern Gulf of Mexico
from NW Yucatan near 21N90W to 25N94W. This boundary is devoid of
significant cloudiness or convection. Weak high pressure ridges
northward from the Straits of Yucatan to the Florida Panhandle.
Satellite-derived wind data depict moderate to fresh northwest
winds over the Eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh south to
southeast winds over the Western Gulf. The frontal boundary will
dissipate this afternoon as high pressure over the Yucatan Channel
merges with a ridge extending into the SE Gulf from the Western
Atlantic. The high pressure ridge will continue to shift eastward
over the Gulf as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf from Texas on
Wednesday morning. Return flow over the Gulf will increase over
the Gulf as the cold front approaches. South winds over the
Western Gulf will become fresh to strong by Wednesday morning. The
front will enter the NW Gulf on Wednesday night.


A 1008 mb low is centered just off the coast of Northern Colombia
near 11.5N73.5W. A surface trough extends northward from the low
to Cabo Beata in the Dominican Republic. Broad upper-level ridging
over the Caribbean is producing subsidence which is limiting
cloudiness and showers in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are observed E of the trough. Light to
moderate NE winds are generally observed W of the trough. An
upper-level trough extending northward from Hispaniola is
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly
over the Dominican Republic. The trough is expected to lift NNE
during the next 24 hours. As the trough lifts NE, shower and
thunderstorm coverage will decrease. Winds will remain light to


Divergent upper-level flow prevails, especially over the eastern
portion of the island. These dynamics are supporting scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic.
This activity will continue until tonight, then the trough will
swing to the NNE and allow the atmosphere to stabilize on


A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N75W, then curves
SSW to 27N75W to the coast of Central Cuba at 22N79W. A surface
trough extends SE from 30N73W to 23N68W. Only a narrow band of
cloudiness and scattered showers accompanies the front to the N of
26N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated
with the trough is occurring from 22N to 26N between 64W and 68W.
Scattered moderate convection is present farther to the N from
26N to 32N between 64W and 68W. Ridging over the Atlantic between
intense low pressure over the Carolinas and a much broader area of
low pressure centered just S of the Canary Islands near 36N28W is
producing moderate trade winds between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles from 02N to 17N. The low over the Carolinas is expected
to head NE during the next 24 hours, but the ridge over the
Atlantic and low near the Canary Islands will remain in place
through Wednesday. This will maintain the same weather conditions
in these areas. As the cold front moves slowly east, it will
continue to weaken and eventually dissipate by Wednesday evening.

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