Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 17/0600 UTC IS NEAR 28.6N
67.3W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 255 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OR 025 DEGREES 12 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 943 MB. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE 120
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR
HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE
GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. THE EYE OF GONZALO IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 10N21W...8N30W AND 7N36W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 7N36W TO 7N44W 10N52W...TO TRINIDAD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 3N TO 14N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO
10N BETWEEN 17W AND 23W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND
28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO
28N75W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A.
GULF COAST STATES...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PARTS OF CUBA...TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N72W...TO 26N73W 22N80W 24N90W 21N97W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W...
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 21N90W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N90W TO 21N94W AND 19N95W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
CUBA TO 27N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 20N TO THE COAST OF CUBA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ALONG CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND
94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 24N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 100W...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KOPM...KMZG...
KBBF...KXIH...KMDJ...AND KVOA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

THE VISIBILITIES ARE COMPARATIVELY HIGHER AT THIS MOMENT IN
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...
AND IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... AFTER VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES
OR LESS AND FOG IN THE OBSERVATIONS OF 3 TO 4 HOURS AGO.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY FEEDS INTO THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS FROM 80W EASTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...AND IT
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE SURROUNDS PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO THE COAST OF
CUBA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ALONG CUBA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...INCLUDING IN LAKE MARACAIBO.
NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...
IN COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 10N ALONG 74W...AND FROM COASTAL PANAMA
TO 12N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.26 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N74W IN COLOMBIA...NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF PANAMA AND BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL HISPANIOLA-TO-GULF OF URABA TROUGH ALSO PASSES
RIGHT THROUGH THIS AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS HISPANIOLA.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...AND IT CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF URABA
OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
SURROUNDS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 67W
AND 80W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE BEING REPORTED AT
BARAHONA AT 17/0000 UTC. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME AT VARIOUS SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE
ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO COVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
AREA THAT IS AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
CURRENT TROUGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY IS ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE. THE TROUGH
EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING ALONG A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST LINE...
STILL PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE WHOLE 48-HOUR TIME
PERIOD IN SOME WAY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE CURRENT TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
PUERTO RICO WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
13N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 160 NM OF THE 24N50W CYCLONIC
CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS BEYOND THE 120 NM TO 160 NM
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N46W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 13N51W AND 14N53W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N44W 20N44W 16N44W 14N45W...AND FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
47W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN 27W AND 55W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 46N24W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 30N31W. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
10W AND 50W. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA STILL. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 27N26W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N26W TO 26N40W 26N47W AND
24N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N12W 26N20W 24N30W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N12W 24N15W
17N19W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N29W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N TO THE 32N17W
26N36W 23N52W COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 26N58W 21N60W...TO
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. THIS RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS
BETWEEN HURRICANE GONZALO AND THE 32N17W 23N52W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
18N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.