Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 160005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 44.6N 13.3W at 15/2100 UTC or
about 730 nm NE of the Azores, moving NNE at 33 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of
45N between 15W and 18W. The center of Ophelia will cross over
Ireland on Monday, however strong winds and rain will extend far
from the center. Ophelia is expected to be a hurricane- force
post-tropical cyclone when it nears the coast of Ireland on
Monday. See the latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

A cold front along the Texas coast is moving into the Gulf of
Mexico tonight, will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay
of Campeche Mon morning, and then stall from Tampa Bay to the
western half of the Bay of Campeche early Tue. A tight pressure
gradient and cool dry air associated with the front will allow N
winds funneling along the coast of Mexico to reach minimal gale
force from Tampico to Veracruz Monday into late Tuesday, with seas
reaching 8 to 14 ft.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
14N43W to 03N44W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of
strong vertical shear. The wave lies underneath upper level
divergent flow that along with abundant low level moisture
support scattered showers and tstms from 09N-13N between 39W-
48W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
15N51W to 05N51W, moving at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of
strong vertical shear. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show very
high concentration of moisture in the wave environment, which is
supporting isolated showers 09N-14N between 50W-56W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N69W to 11N69W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a strong
vertical wind shear environment and in a region of dry air
subsidence from aloft, which is hindering convection across the
central basin.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa to 11N15W then to E Atlc
waters near 10N18W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N18W to 07N30W to
08N43W. Aside the convection associated with the waves, scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-10N E of 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A well defined surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico from
28N92W to 24N92W to 19N93W. A broad upper ridge centered over the
NW Caribbean covers most of the basin. NW of the ridge, the base
of an upper level trough that is supporting the next cold front to
enter the basin tonight generates diffluent flow, which is
supporting numerous heavy showers and tstms NW of the surface
trough axis from 24N-29N between 91W-97W. Similar convection is
over SE Louisiana, S Mississippi and S Alabama and coastal
wasters. Isolated showers are elsewhere in the western half of
the basin. Gale force winds will develop between the front and the
E coast of Mexico Monday. See special features above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant low level moisture and upper level diffluence aloft is
supporting scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms along
Central America. These showers extend within 120 nm E of the coast
of Nicaragua. A tropical wave is moving over the central Caribbean
waters, however there is no convection associated with it. See
tropical wave section. Scattered showers and tstms are over
central Hispaniola being supported by middle to upper level
diffluent flow. Numerous heavy showers are across the eastern half
of Puerto Rico associated with broad area of low pressure
centered over Hispaniola NE adjacent waters. Showers will extend
to western Puerto Rico tonight and then prevail over the Island
through Monday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and tstms are over
central Hispaniola being supported by middle to upper level
diffluent flow. Showers will continue and increase in areal
coverage as the broad area of low pressure centered NE of the
Island continue a WNW track through Tuesday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Puerto Rico and Bermuda is
associated with a broad area of low pressure centered near 21N68W. Scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection is mainly SE of the low
affecting Puerto Rico and northern adjacent waters. A stationary
front extends from 30N19W to 27N34W to 28N48W. Weak surface ridging
is elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos



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