Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 180541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
17N22W TO 8N21W MOVING W 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY SAHARAN
AIR IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N41W
TO 7N43W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 13N54W TO
7N58W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND 61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N16W ALONG 12N22W 9N29W TO 9N37W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 8N41W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
7N45W TO 9N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 26W-37W AND FROM 6N-
9N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL UPPER LOW IS OVER THE FAR W GULF NEAR 24N97W WITH A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED
NEAR 26N92W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED ALONG THE
FRONT ARE MOVING INTO THE FAR NW GULF N OF 29N W OF 90W. AT THE
SURFACE IS 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W WITH
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF. THE FRONT OVER THE N GULF COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE
WHERE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 18N85W WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO 13N78W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 76W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE S OF PANAMA
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO S
NICARAGUA. A SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
73W-77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
FRI NIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MON.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SW HAITI. THIS IS LEAVING THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIS TONIGHT. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE SAT EVENING THROUGH
SUN EVENING ENHANCING THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N77W TO THE SE FLORIDA COAST NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE SUPPORTING A
1014 MB LOW NEAR 32N76W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW TO 26N78W. AN AREA OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVERS THE W
ATLC W OF 66W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS TO NEAR 23N73W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE NEAR 29N72W FURTHER
ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 22N BETWEEN 66W-78W.
A SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N47W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
45W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL SHIFT NE TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS
THROUGH SAT. THE 1014 MB LOW WILL SHIFT NE AWAY FROM THE AREA
FRI. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REFORM NEAR 30N SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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