Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 230543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
04N13W TO 02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 09W-14W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN
19W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 36N90W S-SW TO THE BASE OF THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS SE MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 32N88W AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS NEAR 30N89W TO 28N90W...THEN INTO THE SW GULF TO THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. THE WARM FRONT FEATURE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA REMAINS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...SW
GEORGIA...AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO AN OVERALL WEAKER DYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE MONDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE ALOFT
PROMOTING FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY AREAS OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS IN THE VICINITY OF SW JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W AND SOME
ACTIVITY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION...HOWEVER AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE FOCUSED ON
A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N76W IS PROVIDING THE AREA N OF
28N W OF 65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY
ALONG 31N/32N WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLC BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL DRAPE SW FROM THE LOW MOSTLY RETAINING INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 25N. OTHERWISE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ON A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N68W PROVIDES MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. TO THE
EAST...A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
32N48W TO A BASE NEAR 12N61W IN SUPPORT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W AND TERMINATING
NEAR 27N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N
BETWEEN 47W-53W. FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N33W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE RIDGING IS THE EXTENSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH STEMMING
FROM A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N09W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER S-SW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
27N21W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 28N
E OF 16W...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOROCCO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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