Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 100546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Franklin is centered near 20.0N 96.7W at 10/0600 UTC or
about 70 nm SE of Tuxpan Mexico and about 60 nm NNW of Veracruz
Mexico moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90
kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is from 18N-
21N between 91W-96W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 16N-24N between 87W-97W. See the latest NHC Intermediate
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and
the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 09N32W to 20N29W moving W at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with relatively sharp 700 mb troughing between
26W-38W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave
at this time.

A tropical wave extends from 10N60W to 25N54W moving W at 10-15
kt. A 1013 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 19N57W
providing focus for scattered moderate convection from 17N-20N
between 54W-58W.

A tropical wave extends from 10N84W to 21N82W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave remains embedded within middle to upper level low
centered over the western Caribbean Sea near 16N82W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N-16N between 75W-90W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 18N-23N between 81W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to
14N26W to 08N35W to 07N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 07N41W to 08N51W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-13N between 13W-22W...and from 07N-12N
between 49W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The primary focus this evening is Hurricane Franklin as it tracks
across the SW Gulf waters and nears the Mexico coast. Scattered
showers and strong tstms continue to impact the SW Gulf waters
generally S of 23N W of 92W. Elsewhere across the basin...an upper
level ridge anchored over the Rio Grande River valley extends
eastward over the northern Gulf and Florida peninsula. At the
surface...mostly gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail under
relatively tranquil conditions. A few isolated showers are
occurring off the coast of extreme southern Texas S of 27N W of
95W...and along the northern Gulf coast N of 28N. An upper level
trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the Bahamas and
western Cuba that continues to support a surface trough analyzed
across the NW Bahamas. This trough is forecast to continue moving
westward and bring increased cloudiness and precipitation to the
Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf waters Thursday and Thursday
night. The trough is expected to stall across Florida Friday night
into early Saturday as surface ridging will anchor across the
north-central Gulf waters and provide fair weather and tranquil
conditions for the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered over the western Caribbean near
16N82W. In addition...a tropical wave is analyzed along 84W and
both features continue to generate scattered showers and tstms
across portions of Central America and the SW Caribbean generally
S of 16N W of 75W. The close proximity of the monsoon trough
extending from northern Colombia to western Panama is also
providing focus for this convective activity. The upper level low
is forecast to move west and weaken over Central America while the
tropical wave moves into the East Pacific region. Farther east...
the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the
influence of mostly clear skies and overall fair conditions with
moderate to fresh trades prevailing. A few isolated showers and
tstms are occurring across the SE Caribbean S of 15N E of 66W as a
tropical wave currently along 58W begins to impact the Lesser
Antilles.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevail this evening
across the island. Overall dry conditions are expected through
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is centered over the Bahamas and
western Cuba this evening and reflects a surface trough analyzed
from 23N80W to 29N76W. The surface trough provides focus for
widely scattered showers and tstms from 22N-29N between 75W-80W.
The upper level trough is expected to become absorbed by an upper
level low centered over the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday.
Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc lies under the
influence of a broad upper level trough over the SE CONUS. The
troughing supports a stationary front extending from offshore of
the Outer Banks to southern Georgia with scattered showers and
isolated tstms generally remaining N of 30N W of 75W. Farther
east...another upper level low is centered near 23N57W that
continues to enhance convection in the vicinity of the tropical
wave between 50W-60W and a dissipating stationary front analyzed
along 27N/28N. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 23N-
28N between 49W-61W. The stationary front links E-NE to a 1019 mb
low centered near 32N37W. Isolated showers and tstms are
occurring in the vicinity of the low N of 29N between 34W-41W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN




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