Tropical Weather Discussion
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377
AXNT20 KNHC 040541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front currently in the west
Atlantic will move to 32N47W along 26N60W to 25N75W with
southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to 42W
starting at 04/1200 UTC. These winds will shift east with the
front through 05/1200 UTC. Please see the High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 7N11W to 4N16W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 4N21W 5N31W 4N44W to South America near
4N51W. Small clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are within 90 nm of a line from 1N at the Prime
Meridian along 4N9W to 7N15W. Large clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 2N-8N between
26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf again tonight anchored in
the Caribbean giving the Gulf southwest to west flow aloft. A
deep layered trough over the western CONUS is digging south to
over western Mexico further amplifying the upper ridge. A
stationary front extends across northeast Mexico and south Texas
just west then north of Brownsville into the Gulf along 28N95W
to inland along the coast of Louisiana near Lake Charles.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are within 60 nm
east of the front over the northwest Gulf. Scattered showers
cover the remainder of the northwest Gulf west of a line from
Mobile, Alabama across southeast Louisiana along 28N93W to
northeast Mexico near 24N97W. The front will meander over the
northwest Gulf through Sunday night. Fresh to strong east to
southeast winds are over most of the Gulf waters and will become
moderate to fresh southeast to south winds on Sunday. A cold
front will move across the Gulf Monday and Tuesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over western Panama dominating the
Caribbean again tonight. At the surface: a surface trough
extends from 17N80W along 13N78W to Colombia near 11N74W.
Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
within 150 nm northeast of the surface trough and from 17N-20N
between 75W-87W. This is leaving the east Caribbean with clear
skies tonight. The surface trough will move west and weaken
through Sunday. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will shift
southeast into the coming week creating fresh trade winds across
the Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms continue to
dot the island again tonight. Lingering moisture and easterly
trade winds could continue to produce showers across the island
through the Sunday night with some possible clearing on Monday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west
Atlantic. The surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high over Ohio
is moving into the west Atlantic west of 65W. An upper trough
over the central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that
extends through 32N49W along 28N61W to 25N71W where it
dissipates as a stationary front across the central Bahama
Islands to 24N81W in the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm east of the front east of 61W. A weak surface
trough is south of the front extending from 27N60W 23N64W to
north of Puerto Rico near 19N67W with isolated showers possible
within 90 nm east of the trough. A surface ridge covers the
central and eastern Atlantic north of 20N anchored by a 1018 mb
high near 23N34W and a 1017 mb high near 22N53W. A surface
trough is south of the surface ridge extending from 16N51W
through 11N54W to the coast of South America near 6N55W. This
surface trough is beneath the upper trough that covers the
central Atlantic with an east/west upper ridge to the east. The
upper ridge is providing difflunce aloft to generate clusters of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 8N-20N between
35W-47W. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N47W
along 26N60W to 25N75W by early Sunday with southwest gale force
winds east of the front through Monday morning. See Special
Features above.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW



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