Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 061216
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N33W TO 20N28W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EASILY TRACKED IN THE SUNY-ALBANY 700 MB TROUGH
DIAGNOSTICS FROM THE GFS AS WELL AS THE EARLIER ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH.  A STRONG SAHARAN
AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE WAVE...WHICH
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N71W TO 23N71W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY EASY TO IDENTIFY ON BOTH THE SHORT-WAVE
GOES-E SATELLITE AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.  THE
TROPICAL WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD GLOBAL MODEL 700
MB TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IMPACTS
OVERALL STABILITY WITH THE WAVE AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N90W IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 24N87W MOVING WNW AT 20 KT. THE WAVE
IS APPARENT IN THE SUNY-ALBANY 700 MB TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS...BUT
IS OTHERWISE DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS LITTLE SURFACE SIGNATURE IS
PRESENT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA IN POSSIBLE ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N24W TO 10N33W TO 06N58W IN SOUTH AMERICA. NUMEROUS MODERATE
AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 15W-21W.
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR
09N83W AT THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND EXTENDS TO 10N75W AT THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS PRESENT OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING
NEAR 28N88W...AND WITH GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WAS PROMOTING SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF YESTERDAY...THOUGH THIS HAS ENDED EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND LEAVING BEHIND SOME UPPER-LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION EARLIER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF COLLIDING SEA
BREEZES AND THE SURFACE TROUGH.  TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE GULF
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER.  GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS...CONTINUED SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
MAINLY IN AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING AND WITH
CONVERGING SEA BREEZES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROMOTING FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE ENE TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH NEAR
GALE CONDITIONS OFF OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  DEEP CONVECTION
FLARED YESTERDAY OVER CUBA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE
LATTER ENHANCED BY THE WESTERNMOST EASTERLY WAVE DESCRIBED
ABOVE.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OR GREATER ANTILLES.  THE
EASTERNMOST EASTERLY WAVE WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION CHANCES
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
CUBA...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE
CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD BE DRIER.

...HISPANIOLA...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA
CURRENTLY.  AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION CHANCES OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL
HEATING MAXIMUM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N39W
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 30N60W AND SOUTHEASTWARD
TO MOROCCO. THE RESULTING NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
GENERATING NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF GENERALLY GENTLE TO FRESH
BREEZE.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR
32N81W TO 32N70W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED W OF
76W N OF 27N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT.  THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHOULD PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.  SURFACE TROUGHS ARE LOCATED FROM 27N48W TO
31N47W AND FROM 21N35W TO 30N35W...BUT NEITHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.  A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...EXTENDING FROM 28W TO 58W...AS SEEN BOTH IN THE
EARLIER GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



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