Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 181150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 35.9N 62.7W AT 18/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 235 NM N-NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 782 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90
KT WITH GUST TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF BERMUDA FROM 33N-38N BETWEEN 61W-66W. PLEASE
SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N37W
TO 5N36W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION
OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N21W 10N30W TO E OF THE
TROPICAL NEAR 7N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N39W TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 13W-16W INCLUDING THE W COAST
OF AFRICA AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING
S OVER THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO OVER E TEXAS COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE GULF THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W. A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. MOISTURE FROM T.S. TRUDY OFF THE S COAST OF MEXICO IS
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COUPLED WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N ACROSS THE BAY W OF 90W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF EARLY SUN AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM NEAR
TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 78W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN.
THIS UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A RECENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 80W TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-80W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG 11N79W TO
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N82W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-80W.
NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SUBSIDE
WITHIN ATLC PASSAGES TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SW
HAITI. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC/E CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY WHEN THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA NW FLOW ALOFT.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE ATLC BASIN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE
HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE
ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS GONZALO EXTENDING FROM 28N63W
ALONG 24N70W TO 22N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W DIPPING S
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY/STABLE AIR FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 67W-74W AND FROM CUBA TO 32N
W OF 74W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR
22N50W SUPPORTING A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 22N50W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 19N51W 17N55W TO 15N57W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-28N
BETWEEN 39W-52W AND FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 39W-47W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 20N. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE NE ATLC TO 28N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N25W ALONG 30N30W TO 29N35W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO 30N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
SE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 12N29W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N30W. GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND WILL PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN AND WILL EXTEND
FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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