Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 232358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE
BACK ABOVE GALE FORCE FROM 10.5N-12N BETWEEN 73.5W-76W BY 0600
UTC TONIGHT...DECREASING BELOW GALE FORCE LATER IN THE MORNING.
STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TUE NIGHT. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
25W AND THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST
NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 02W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC US COAST
SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 30N84W TO 27N90W
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
SW GULF FROM 25N93W TO 18N94W. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 29N84W TO 26N86W...WHICH REPRESENTS AN AREA OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF ON WED. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE GULF WED TO WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG WINDS TO THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WITHIN NW TO WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THAT ARE
FORECAST TO PULSE ABOVE GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAIL. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS MAINLY E OF 76W.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
NOTED THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN PERIODIC PASSING TRADE WIND
SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE N FL COAST AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER FL. A WEAK 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE SE COAST OF FL NEAR 26N80W.
OTHERWISE...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR THE AZORES DOMINATES THE TROPICAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE COLD
FRONT OVER N FL WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL TRACK INTO THE SW N ATLC WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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