Tropical Weather Discussion
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761
AXNT20 KNHC 131746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
08N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N17W to 06N40W to the coast of South America near 04N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 21W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Radar imagery shows scattered showers over central and south
Florida, and the Straits of Florida, partially due to residual
moisture from a dissipated front. Radar imagery also shows
scattered showers over S Texas and NE Mexico from 24N-28N between
95W-102W. More scattered showers are over the SW Bay of Campeche.
10-20 kt NE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. In the
upper levels, a trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis from
the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Strong subsidence is
over the Gulf, except over the SE Gulf and S Florida. Upper level
diffluence is also over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. Expect
over the next 48 hours for surface ridging to build over the Gulf
with scattered showers persisting over the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends over the W Caribbean from 21N79W to
12N80W. Patches of scattered moderate convection is over most of
the NW Caribbean N of 15N between 74W-88W. Further S, a 1007 mb
low is along the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the low. In the
upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the NW Caribbean
enhancing convection. An upper level high is centered over
Colombia near 07N73W. Expect additional convection over the
central and SW Caribbean over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola mostly due to upper level
diffluence. Expect showers to transition to convection over the
next 24 hours. Convection will be heaviest in the afternoon and
evening hours during maximum heating. Localized flooding and life-
threatening mud slides are also possible over the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N61W to 25N64W.
This trough is now void of convection. Scattered moderate
convection is over the S Bahamas from 20N-23N between 72W-78W. A
surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 23N26W through
the Cape Verde Islands to 13N21W. Scattered showers are within 180
nm of the trough. A 1013 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic
near 31N33W. A surface trough extends S from the low to 24N33W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the low and within 60 nm of
the trough. This system could gradually acquire some subtropical
characteristics during the next few days while it moves slowly
northeastward. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough
is over the far W Atlantic. A large upper level low is centered
over the E Atlantic near 32N32W with a trough axis extending SW
to 22N45W. Upper level diffluence is E of this trough axis to the
coast of W Africa.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa




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