Tropical Weather Discussion
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072
AXNT20 KNHC 180001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 18/0000 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 273 nm southeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 31.9N 71.7W, moving north
at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous
strong convection is from 31N-33N between 71W-73W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 30N-35N between 67W-74W.
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next couple
of days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through
Tuesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 17/2100 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee is located about 790 nm
west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13.2N 37.3W, moving west at
7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N-14N between
35W-38W. Lee will continue weakening as it moves west through
the next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

At 18/0000 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located about 108 nm east-
northeast of Barbados near 14.0N 57.9W, moving west-northwest at
13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 12N-15N between 57W-59W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 11N-17N between 51W-60W. Hurricane
warnings have been issued for several islands in the Leeward
Islands. Maria is forecast to further intensify over the next 48
hours. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along
72W south of 18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a
region of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery.
Scattered scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over NW
Venezuela.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 21N87W to 13N88W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave
is in a region of strong moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery.
A surface trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over Central America
from Honduras to Panama.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N16W to
09N20W to 07N24W to 09N31W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N-10N between 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N86W. Surface
ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico. 10 kt easterly winds are
over the Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level high is over
the W Gulf near 25N95W. An upper level trough is over the E Gulf
with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf.
Expect scattered showers over the Yucatan Peninsula over the
next 24 hours mostly due to a tropical wave.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough
in the Pacific reaches the northwest coast of Colombia and is
producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in
the southwest Caribbean south of 13N. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail across the basin, with strongest winds in the central
Caribbean. Expect for the tropical waves to continue moving west
with convection. Hurricane Maria is expected to impact the
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico within the next 72 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is over the island.
Expect diurnal convection to develop in the afternoon hours over
the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, T.D. Lee and Hurricane Maria. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to
26N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-30N between
35W-39W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence
of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near
34N52W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa



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