Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 151047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF FROM
22N-28N W OF 94W ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF. THESE GALE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W
GULF THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORM WINDS EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF TIME
TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N17W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
28W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 32W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES S TO OVER THE N
HALF OF MEXICO CLIPPING THE NW GULF AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT AT 15/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER FORT WALTON BEACH
FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N87W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR
PANAMA CITY TO OVER SW GEORGIA JUST S OF COLUMBUS. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE FLORIDA COAST
THEN WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 30N85.5W TO S GEORGIA NEAR
31N83W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF THE
FRONT AND E OF LINE FROM ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND INTO THE W ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E COVERING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF THE
FRONT CLEAR SKIES. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL OVER
THE SE GULF LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE GULF ON WED AND BECOMING A STRONG BREEZE OVER NE GULF
WATERS THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND EXTENDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM
HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS GIVING THE S CARIBBEAN
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N E OF 75W AND
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 75W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LATER TODAY. ENHANCED TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER S HAITI/SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
BEGINNING TO SHIFT E AND WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY. THE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN
WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ON WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 31N60W TO 23N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-30N W OF 56W TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE
SURFACE TROUGH. ONE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N50W ALONG 24N35W TO WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE
SE GEORGIA COAST THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING FROM 31N72W TO CAY
SAL BANK WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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