Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 191122 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

UPDATED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE INFORMATION ABOUT A GALE WARNING IN
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS
LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II FOR THE SECTION THAT IS
TITLED...IRVING. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.
THE WEBSITE IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 11N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N20W
TO 7N30W 5N39W 3N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND
41W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N67W...JUST TO THE
WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 29N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W...
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO BELIZE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N76W...
AND TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO ALSO...FROM 27N SOUTHWARD.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
RUNS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KGVX...
KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...KATP...KIPN....

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS AND IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL PLAINS TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA
COASTAL PLAINS FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER SOUTH FLORIDA...FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD TO AND INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 66W EASTWARD.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 80W EASTWARD. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 17N58W ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N66W ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 25N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W.

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
84W/85W FROM 15N IN HONDURAS TO 20N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE EASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA-TO-
NORTHERN GUATEMALA COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH OF 12N72W 14N80W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.74 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.08 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGE-
SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA
CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL START IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS...AND IT WILL
END UP ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST RIDGE THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH 32N20W
TO 24N25W 20N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N30W TO 19N48W
...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N58W. A
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N58W TO 10N66W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N13W...TO THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS...TO 24N24W AND
TO 23N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30
NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N14W TO 28N16W TO 24N19W...PASSING RIGHT THROUGH THE CANARY
ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 70W EASTWARD IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 31N45W...TO 28N54W 26N60W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...TO CENTRAL CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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