Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160606

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to
locally strong from 02N to 10N between 10W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W from 11N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center
is along the wave near 05N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 02N to 08N between 31W and 35W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 09N southward between 20W and 31W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/39W from 15N
southward moving westward 10 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center
is along the wave along 10N. Isolated moderate from 08N to 12N
between 38W and 44W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/70W from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This wave is moving through
an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broken to overcast
multilayered convective debris clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 14N northward between 60W and 73W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/84W from 16N southward,
along the coast of Central America, from Honduras to Costa Rica.
Scattered strong rainshowers are from 13N to 16N between 79W and
the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua, and from 17N to 21N between
79W and 83W. Scattered moderate to strong also covers the area
from Belize to Guatemala, and in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.


The Monsoon Trough is along 08N20W 05N30W. The ITCZ is along
09N42W 08N51W 07N57W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate
to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.



An upper level trough passes through the coastal waters of South
Carolina, to a cyclonic circulation center that is about 100 nm to
the west of the coast of SW Florida, through the Yucatan Channel,
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are near the southernmost tip of Florida/the
Florida Keys, and just to the west of Eleuthera Island in the
Bahamas. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward
between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air
with subsidence cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 26N92W.


LIFR: none.

IFR: none.



Texas: MVFR in inland/interior sections of the Lower Valley. light
rain in Alice has ended for the moment. Rockport and Palacios are
reporting some MVFR conditions from time to time. LOUISIANA:
MVFR at the NAS in New Orleans. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in McComb. light
rain in parts of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. rainshowers
and thunder in the coastal plains. ALABAMA: LIFR in Evergreen.
FLORIDA: light rain in Milton and Apalachicola. rainshowers and
thunder in Marathon Key have ended for the moment.


Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, with the trough that extends from the SE Gulf of
Mexico into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level ridge extends from Nicaragua to SE Cuba. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the Atlantic
Ocean 27N56W-to-19N58W-to-10N59W trough. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 14N northward between 60W and 73W.

Scattered strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Colombia
from 10N to 13N between 74W and 79W, in an area of broad surface
low pressure.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 16/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.


Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: light rain and
thunder. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Puerto Plata:
MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet.


An upper level trough extends from a 27N56W cyclonic circulation
center, to 19N58W and 10N59W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 14N northward between 60W and 73W. Rainshowers also are from
20N northward between 50W and 70W.

An upper level trough extends from a 31N21W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 20N37W and 10N45W.

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A strong tropical wave was added to the 1200 UTC surface map near
the west coast of Africa based on visible satellite imagery and
the Hovmoller Diagram. Its axis extends now from 11N16W to
04N16W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 03N-11N between

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands extends from 10N30W to a 1012 mb low
pressure located near 06N30W to 00N30W. This wave is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from 03N-08N between 30W-
34W. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur
during the next few days while the wave moves westward near 20 kt
over the tropical Atlantic.

The tropical wave situated along 39W on the 1200 UTC surface map
was re-located farther east based on a recent ASCAT data. At this
time, the axis extends from 14N37W to 07N38W, moving westward at
around 10 kt. The wave remains embedded within an area of deep-
layer moisture as depicted on the TPW product. The wave also
coincides with an inverted trough at 700 mb. Satellite imagery
show isolated convection with some cyclonic turning along the
wave`s axis.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean and extends from
western Puerto Rico to the coast of central Venezuela. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are observed across the northern half of
the wave affecting the area north of 15N. The wave is very well
depicted in the moisture product and 700 streamline analysis. This
wave is forecast to move across Hispaniola through Friday.

Another tropical wave is drifting westward across the SW Caribbean
with axis from 17N82W to the coast of western Panama. Scattered
moderate convection is seen on either side of the wave axis
supported by a diffluent flow aloft that covers the western
Caribbean mainly west of 76W. This wave will reach central
America tonight, and will be absorbed by the complex low pressure
system forecast to develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
08N18W to 07N28W. The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to 09N60W. Three
tropical waves are embedded within the Monsoon trough/ITCZ. Most
of the convective activity is associated to these waves.



A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic, across Florida
into the Gulf of Mexico producing gentle to moderate E to SE
winds across the area. A thermal trough, that normally develops
during the evening hours over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves
across the southwest Gulf during the overnight and early morning
hours, extends along 90W south of 22N. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are observed along the Yucatan Peninsula
near the trough. Water vapor imagery continues to reveal the
presence of an upper-level low spinning over the southeast Gulf,
with a trough that extends southwest across the northern Yucatan
Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Upper diffluence on
the east side of the low combined with a moist and humid southeast
flow at low levels will continue to support the development of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys and the southeast Gulf.
Abundant moisture is expected to persist over the southeast Gulf
and the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend. This weather
pattern will be associated with a complex area of low pressure
forecast to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable
for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly
northwestward toward the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next


Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please
see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. These
tropical waves will become absorbed in a broad area of low
pressure forecast to form over the northwest Caribbean during the
upcoming weekend. Experimental GOES-16 visible satellite imagery
is already hinting the presence of a low-level circulation over
eastern Honduras. This system will bring increasing winds and
building seas across the central and western Caribbean during the
upcoming weekend due to a tight pressure gradient between the
developing low pressure and the Atlantic ridge. Plenty of moisture
and very active weather is also expected with this low affecting
the western and west and central Caribbean Sea as well as Central
America during the weekend. Locally heavy rain could occur over
parts of Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America.
At this time, scatterometer data show moderate to fresh trades
across the east and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the northwest Caribbean. This wind pattern will
continue through Saturday.


A tropical wave, currently over western Puerto Rico, will move
across Hispaniola this evening through Friday supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms as it moves through.


Three tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. Please refer
to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough
extends from 30N55W to 26N62W. This surface feature is the
reflection of an upper-level low centered near 28N57W, with a
trough extending southwest towards Puerto Rico. Isolated showers
are observed along this trough. Elsewhere, a broad high pressure
covers the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1020 mb surface
high centered near 27N68W and a 1026 mb surface high near 35N25W.
Moderate to locally fresh trades are around the southern periphery
of the ridge between the Windward Islands and the coast of
Africa. A surge of African dust continues to spread westward in
the wake of the tropical wave located along 38W as noted in the
Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS.

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