Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 111050

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
550 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

A stationary front extends across the western Caribbean Sea
waters from the Windward Passage near 20N74W S-SW to 10N80W near
the western Panama coast. Strong high pressure remains to the W
of the front across Cuba...the NW Caribbean Sea...and much of
Central America this morning resulting in near gale to gale force
N winds generally S of 18N W of the front to 83W off the coast of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The front is forecast to remain nearly
stationary the next few days from the Windward Passage region to
the coast of Panama with fresh to strong N winds continuing to
diminish gradually through mid-week. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
06N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N19W to the Equator near 42W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 04N-06N between 22W-28W.


A surface ridge extends across the entire basin anchored by a
1030 mb high centered across southern Texas near 28N97W. Light to
gentle N winds are noted W of 90W...and gentle to moderate N
winds are noted E of 90W. The ridging will build in across the
northern Gulf through Monday night with generally gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds expected across much of the basin. By
Tuesday...the next weak cold front will emerge off the SE CONUS
coast introducing a brief period of fresh W-NW winds to the
northern water Tuesday morning and eastern waters Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. The front will be quick to clear east
of the basin with moderate northerly winds prevailing Wednesday
into Thursday.

The primary feature across the basin is the stationary front
extending across the western waters generating the near gale to
gale force northerly winds. Scattered showers and tstms are
occurring generally S of 17N between 77W-84W...and within 60 nm
either side of the front N of 17N. Much of this convection is
supported aloft by a divergent upper level pattern on the western
periphery of an upper level anticyclone anchored over northern
Colombia near 10N75W. East of the anticyclonic circulation...dry
northerly flow prevails providing overall stability to the central
and eastern Caribbean this morning. A few isolated showers are
noted on satellite imagery E of 70W...but remain shallow...quick-
moving...and embedded within gentle to moderate trades. The front
is forecast to remain stationary across the western Caribbean and
begin to gradually weaken through mid-week.

Fair weather conditions prevail across the island this morning
while a stationary front remains analyzed across the Windward
Passage region. Isolated showers and tstms are possible within 60
nm either side of the front which is expected remains stationary
during the next few days begin on a weakening trend through
Tuesday night.

Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough over
the eastern CONUS and western North Atlc waters supporting the
Special Features cold front extending from 32N63W to 25N70W
becoming stationary to the Windward Passage and into the SW
Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either
side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc
waters are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored over
the Gulf of Mexico and portions of eastern Mexico. Elsewhere...
water vapor imagery indicates a cut-off middle to upper level low
centered near 24N49W that continues to slowly retrograde. A
surface trough extends from 16N54W to 29N48W providing focus for
scattered showers and tstms from 19N-30N between 40W-51W. The
trough is forecast to drift westward across the central Atlc
through Monday night.

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