Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 100526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
126 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 32.3N 39.0W at 10/0300
UTC about 682 nm west-southwest of the Azores, moving northeast
at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Scattered moderate convection
is from 27N-36N between 32W-41W. See the latest Advisory/Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic with axis extending from
13N31W to 02N32W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a moist
area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well
defined in scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N-12N between 30W-33W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N62W to 10N64W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a
moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb
trough are both well defined. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave mainly east of 74W enhanced also by the
presence of an upper level low centered near 24N65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 07N31W, then resumes
from 09N33W to 05N52W. Besides convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N
between 33W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin from the central
Atlantic. This pattern supports minimal convection over the area.
A cold front associated with a low pressure system in N Oklahoma
will push off the Texas coast by Tuesday evening with active
convection expected across the northwest Gulf. This activity will
follow the front as it moves across the northern portion of the
basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean with
scattered showers mainly east of 74W. See the section above for
details. A surface trough extends across eastern Cuba from 23N78W
to 19N77W with isolated showers. The eastern extent of the
Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers over Costa
Rica, Panama, and the southwest Caribbean mainly south of 11N.
Gentle trade winds prevail over most of the Caribbean. Little
change is expected through the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are observed across the island supported by the
proximity of an upper-level low currently centered near 24N65W.
This activity will diminish overnight. Scattered showers are
expected to develop again by Tuesday afternoon/evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the central Atlantic. See the section
above for details. A tropical wave is moving across the central
Atlantic. For more details, see the section above. A surface ridge
extends across the west Atlantic west of 70W with fair weather. To
the east, an upper-level low is centered near 24N65W enhancing
scattered moderate convection from 20N-27W between 58W-67W. A
surface trough extends from 19N51W to 11N52W with scattered
showers mostly along the northern portion. A similar pattern is
expected through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA




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