Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 232342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N36N TO 09N36W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 30W-40W AND THE
CURRENT POSITION COINCIDES WITH THE GFS-BASED TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS
ONE. A BROAD SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT INHIBITING ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N74W TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF COLOMBIA NEAR
06N76W. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MAXIMUM OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 70W-80W AND ITS POSITION COINCIDES
WITH THE GFS-BASED TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 11N BETWEEN 73W-79W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EPAC WITH
AXIS FROM 17N87W TO 06N87W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD AND
SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
BETWEEN 80W-90W. MOST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS NOTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OCCURRING FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 80W-87W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AFFECTING THE
EPAC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 08N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N37W TO 07N46W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 20W-30W WHILE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS W
REACHING THE GULF WATERS AND ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 25N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING OFFSHORE AFFECTING THE E GULF WATERS MAINLY E OF 84W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE ANOTHER ONE
IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CENTERED
OVER HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
MAINLY S OF 12N AFFECTING PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND COLOMBIA.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING
OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND COLOMBIA COAST REGION WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W
INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W IS CURRENTLY MOVING S OF THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO IT AT
THIS TIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
ISLAND NEAR 19N72W SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS HAITI.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH
PREVAILS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N80W TO 32N77W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ALONG 32N SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 30N AND W
OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N54W AND A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N33W. THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH A SAHARAN
AIRMASS ARE KEEPING THIS AREA CONVECTION-FREE. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS BETWEEN THESE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS FROM 30N46W TO
22N47W. THIS TROUGH COINCIDES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 26N48W THAT CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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