Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 200532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 4N23W TO 5N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 11W-22W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N88W TO 16N91W. 20
KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE W GULF HAS 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 98W-102W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER N FLORIDA FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 81W-84W. THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE
GOES IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS PRESENTLY
VOID OF IFR FOG OR STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N85W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY
OVER THE NE GULF. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH CONVECTION REMAINING INLAND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF
CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA
...AND THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SW TO W
FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN WED ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W. A
1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N56W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 31N54W TO 27N60W TO 27N67W. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 26N61W TO 21N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
FRONT FROM 24N-34N BETWEEN 47W-56W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 41N22W WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 20N E OF 45W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N55W ENHANCING
THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH
TO MOVE E AT 15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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