Tropical Weather Discussion
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466
AXNT20 KNHC 162329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic has an axis
that extends from 17N20W to 04N20W, moving westward at 15-20 kt.
This wave is embedded in a 700 mb trough as indicated in model
fields. SSMI total precipitable water imagery also shows a very
moist area west of Africa. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N-11N between 18W-21W. Elsewhere a large area of scattered
showers are from 04N-16N between 17W-25W.

A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic has an axis
that extends from 17N39W to 04N40W, moving westward at 15-20 kt.
This wave is embedded in a 700 mb trough as indicated in model
fields, and is accompanied by a modest surge in moisture.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 37W-40W.
This convection may also be associated with the ITCZ.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean has an axis that
extends from 16N72W to 05N72W, moving westward at 20 kt. This
wave is embedded in subtle 700 mb troughing and is in a surge of
deep moisture that covers the far southern Caribbean Sea.
Scattered moderate convection is mainly inland over Venezuela
and Colombia from 06N-11N between 68W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W and continues to 09N19W. The ITCZ begins
west of a tropical wave near 08N22W and continues to 07N39W. The
ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave near 07N42W and
continues to the coast of South America near 06N54W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 25W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a western Atlantic high at 31N68W
across N Florida, to the northeastern Texas Coast. Gentle breeze
winds cover the Gulf. An upper low is centered over the SW Gulf
near 23N96W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over
most of the Gulf to include the NE Gulf States, Florida, W Cuba,
and the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect little change in the surface
flow and area of convection over the next 24 hours, while the
upper level low moves west into Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. The
surface pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower
pressures over Colombia supports fresh breeze to strong breeze
tradewinds over the south central Caribbean. A large upper high
is currently just north of N Colombia near 14N75W. Clusters of
isolated moderate convection are over Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola,Jamaica, and Cuba. Elsewhere clusters of scattered
moderate convection are over the SW Caribbean, and Central
America from Panama to Guatemala. Expect over the next 24 hours
for the tropical wave to move west with convection. Also expect
the upper level high to move west towards Central America.

...HISPANIOLA...

Clusters of isolated moderate convection are over Hispaniola due
to diurnal heating and low-level moisture. Expect similar
convection Sunday afternoon and evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer
to the tropical waves section for more details. A 1022 mb high
is over the western Atlantic near 31N68W. Another large 1030 mb
high is over the central Atlantic near 38N44W. In the upper
levels, a small upper level low is over the western Atlantic
near 28N73W with scattered showers. Expect the tropical waves to
be the dominate features in the tropical Atlantic over the next
48 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA



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