Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
AXNT20 KNHC 191047
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
02N14W to 01S30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 01S30W to the South American coast near 02S44W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-04N
between 00W-06W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm
either side of the axis between 11W-25W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 0900 UTC, a 1025 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of
Mexico near 28N92W. 5-20 kt anticyclonic surface flow is over
the Gulf with lightest winds near the high and strongest winds
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fair weather is over the Gulf. IFR
fog or stratus clouds are inland over S Texas and S Louisiana. A
cold front is over N Florida from Jacksonville to N of
Tallahassee. In the upper levels, the base of a longwave trough
is over N Florida and the far NE Gulf of Mexico. The remainder
of the Gulf has zonal flow. Strong subsidence is over the entire
area. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface high to
remain quasi-stationary. Also expect over the next 24 hours for
the Florida cold front to traverse N Florida and move into the
Atlantic, with showers.
A quasi-stationary front extends from E Cuba near 21N76W to E
Honduras near 15N83W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
front. 20 kt NE surface winds are N of the front. 15-30 kt
tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, with a
near gale is along the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the front. Scattered showers are
over the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, N Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and
Belize. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered
over the E Caribbean near 13N68W. Upper level moisture is over
the front, while strong subsidence is elsewhere over the
Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.
Scattered showers are presently over the island due to low level
moisture embedded in the tradewinds. Expect little change over
the next 24 hours.
As of 0900 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 36N70W
to 31N78W to Jacksonville Florida at 30N81W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm of the front. A 1026 mb high is
centered over the W Atlantic near 34N55W. A quasi-stationary
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N49W to 26N60W to
24N70W to E Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the stationary front. A 1028 mb high is centered near the
Azores at 40N21W with a surface ridge axis extending SW to
27N46W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is
over the W Atlantic N of 25N between 60W-80W supporting the cold
front, and producing upper level diffluence over the northern
portion of the stationary front. A large upper level low is
centered over the tropical Atlantic near 19N32W. Upper level
diffluence E of this center is producing scattered showers
within 600 nm E of the center. Another upper level low is
centered over the Canary Islands near 30N15W with showers.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front to exit N
Florida and extend from the W Atlantic at 31N66W to the N
Bahamas. This front will have 20-25 kt NW winds N of the front.
Also expect little change over the next 24 hours with the
For additional information please visit