Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 240005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W SW
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS CONTINUES TO 02S24W 03S33W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 03S TO 03N BETWEEN 07W AND 21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
06S TO 02N W OF 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO A BASE N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 27N82W 24N86W 21N92W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE SW AND SE
GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 26N E OF 85W AND ON
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE TAIL OF A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENHANCES THE CONVECTION IN THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
EXTENDS S-SW TO THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W...THUS PROVIDING
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN...INCREASING UP TO 15 KT W OF 90W. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUE MORNING EXTENDING THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE STRAITS...ALONG THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THERE ARE NO FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE CARIBBEAN. FAIR WEATHER
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE
MOVING WITH THE TRADES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. TRADES OF 10 KT
DOMINATES ON THE EASTERN...CENTRAL AND SW BASIN...INCREASING TO
15 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...A
1016 MB HIGH PROVIDES VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT. THE HIGH OVER THE
NW BASIN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING
ENHANCED BY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO A BASE N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA FROM
WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E-NE ALONG 29N78W TO A 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 31N71W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO
27N76W...ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N83W. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 30N57W TO 27N62W TO 24N65W. A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
NORTEHRN FLORIDA WILL DRIFT SE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS EXTENDING
A COLD FRONT SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND A STATIONARY
FRONT E TRANSITIONING TO A COLD FRONT TO 68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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