Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 161753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 16/1800 UTC IS NEAR 26.5N
68.5W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10
DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
942 MB. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE 125 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 150 KNOTS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE
GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT3. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
67W-70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 65W-71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N29W TO A 1012 MB
LOW AT 8N29W MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 29W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N45W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 14N48W TO 12N54W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUFG
AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 45W-54W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N13W AND EXTENDS
TO 9N17W TO 10N24W TO A 1012 MB LOW AT 8N29W TO 6N35W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 6N35W TO 5N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 20W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-
13N BETWEEN 21W-27W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 25W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO
JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-
95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N91W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 80W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO 28N87W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
DIP INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.  THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. 5 -15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 12N OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 20N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N74W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE ISLAND FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W TO THE N BAHAMAS
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 74W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. HURRICANE GONZALO IS E
OF THE BAHAMAS MOVING N. SEE ABOVE.  1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
26N40W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 21N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 42W-48W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N21W TO 28N25W TO 26N30W TO 26N40W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIUN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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