Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 142341

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


A surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 07N16N to
01N19W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends W of the
trough from 02N21W to 01N30W to 02N40W to the coast of South
America near 01S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 01N-05N between 00W-08W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the surface trough. Isolated moderate
convection is from 00N-04N between 10W-18W, and from 00N-03N
between 25W-37W.



A 1033 mb high is centered over Virginia near 37N78W. 10-15 kt E
to SE surface return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico maintaining
warm temperatures. The Gulf has patches of scattered showers
moving W to NW. Showers are over S Florida, over the SE Gulf,
and over the far W Gulf just S of Texas. An upper level ridge is
over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Very strong subsidence covers
the entire Gulf. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to
persist through Mon. The next front is not expected until
Tuesday evening along the coast of Texas.


15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean between 70W-80W. Radar imagery
shows scattered showers over Puerto Rico advecting in from the
Atlantic. Hispaniola and E Cuba has similar conditions
especially over the upper elevations. More scattered showers are
over Central America from Costa Rica to Belize. In the upper
levels, a broad upper level ridge is over the Caribbean Sea with
westerly flow. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean.
Expect similar surface wind conditions through Mon.


Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over the island and adjacent
coastal waters. Scattered showers are over the northern portions
of the island especially over higher elevations. Expect showers
to continue through Mon as the NE flow persists .


A cold front is just N of the area from 34N53W to 32N70W to
32N79W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Further
E, a 1012 mb low is centered near 31N38W. A surface trough
extends S from the low to 26N40W, to another 1013 mb low near
23N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this system. In
the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the central
Atlantic N of 20N between 33W-50W. Upper level diffluence E of
the trough is producing isolated moderate convection from 21N-
36N between 32W-38W. Expect over the next 24-48 hours for the
cold front N of the area to to move SE to the central Atlantic
with showers. Also expect the low and trough system to move E
with convection.

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