Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 211118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO
07N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N35W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 18W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A NORTHERLY MODERATE
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE AN EASTERLY SLIGHT BREEZE
IS OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO
19N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W-
87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF PRODUCING WSW FLOW
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW
TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 19N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A
GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING. SHALLOW
MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A
WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N64W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 31N41W TO 20N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 22N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. A LARGE 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
41N22W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION AND FOR ITS
STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENING BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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