000
AXNT20 KNHC 131043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N28W TO 15N25W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 23W-
31W AND A WEAK AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED NEAR
10N27W. CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N54W TO 18N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N50W TO 09N56W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N84W TO 21N83W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOCUSED ON ENERGY CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N86W IS HELPING
TO ENHANCE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE WAVE N OF 18N. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 81W-87W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N97W TO 19N92W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
11N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N20W TO 08N28W TO 05N44W TO 04N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
OVERALL...EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS
MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A VERY TIGHT UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 29N91W AND RETROGRADING. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF
PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE
RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. ONE OF THE AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS
MORNING IS LOCATED IN THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS IN AN AREA
OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 26N E OF 88W.
OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS SKIRTING THE EXTREME FAR
SOUTHWESTERN WATERS AND ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC GENERATING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 21N THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N86W. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO ADVECT FROM N-NE AWAY FROM CONVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
18N BETWEEN 80W-84W...AND AREAS WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
83W/84W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES CONTINUES S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-83W.

...HISPANIOLA...
EARLIER OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS REMAINING OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT FOR HISPANIOLA REMAINS STABLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER OVER THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N76W SW TO OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N84W. WHILE
NO FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 74W-81W. FARTHER SOUTH...WELL WITHIN
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT REGION BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 78W-81W. TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 26N62W THAT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-
30N BETWEEN 58W-62W. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N49W AND A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AZORES NEAR 41N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN