


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
567 AXNT20 KNHC 121814 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Jul 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Heavy Rainfall Over Florida: A broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and north-central portion of the Gulf of America. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and southeast U.S. coast through mid to late next week. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 16N and between 23W and 30W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 16N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up from 05N to 11N between 35W and 43W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from just south of Haiti southward into northeastern Colombia. It is moving west at 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are over the northern parts of Colombia and Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from south of the Cayman Islands southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the Caribbean waters near Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near El Mamghar, then curves southwestward through two 1014 mb lows near 12N22W and 10N40W to 08N42W. An ITCZ continues from 08N42W to just north of French Guiana at 05.5N54W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 250 nm south fo the monsoon trough between 28W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is causing widely scattered showers at the western Bay of Campeche. Convergent surface winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms near 25N from the western to the eastern Gulf. Otherwise, a 1022 mb high at the northeastern Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high will persist across the Gulf through Tue. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse to strong along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. A surface trough is expected to develop across Florida on Mon and drift westward across the eastern Gulf Tue through Wed, accompanied by active weather ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1024 mb Bermuda High sustains a trade-wind regime for the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds with seas at 6 to 9 ft are present at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the north-central and southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. For the forecast the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central basin through Wed. Fresh E winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, into early next week, pulsing to locally strong Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern basin through the weekend while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail at the northwestern basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds are causing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection off northeastern Florida. An upper- level low is producing scattered moderate convection east of the Bahamas north of 24N between 58W and 68W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A board subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb at 29N30W to beyond central Florida. Gentle E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are present north of 25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the south from 10N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate most of the forecast area through Wed, producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow, except for moderate to fresh E to SE winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Tue, then pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected thereafter. A surface trough is forecast to develop offshore Florida on Mon and drift westward across Florida into the Gulf of America on Tue accompanied by active weather. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the surface trough will support moderate to fresh S to SE winds across the NW zones Tue through Wed. $$ Chan