Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 190541

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


Remnants of Don is centered near 11.9N 62.5W or about 48 nm WSW of
Grenada, at 19/0300 UTC, moving westward at 22 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds
of 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over the Windward Islands from 11N-13N
between 61W- 64W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere near
Trinidad from 09N-11N between 60W-62W. The remnants of Don will
move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Wednesday.
Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6
inches. There remains a potential for life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Please
refer to the last NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is introduced off the coast of W Africa with axis
from 15N17W to 07N19W moving W at 20kt. SSMI imagery shows a moist
area from 04N-15N between 13W-23W. There is also a well defined
700 mb trough associated with the wave. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is mostly W of the wave axis from
08N-12N between 18W-24W.

A tropical wave with an embedded low pressure is in the central
Atlc. Its axis extends from 16N40W to a 1012 mb low near 10N41W
to 04N41W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The SSMI total precipitable water
imagery shows a very large moist area over from 04N- 23N between
30W-45W. The embedded surface low is well defined. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N-14N between
40W-45W. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the next day or two while it moves toward the west-northwest.
Potential for tropical cyclone development from this system
remains low through the next two days.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
19N67W to inland Venezuela near 10N68W, moving W at 20 kt. The
wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear, and Saharan dry air
and dust are affecting the western periphery of the wave
environment. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N16W to 09N24W to 11N41W to
10N50W. The ITCZ then extends from 10N50W to 09N58W. Aside from
the convection associated with the tropical waves, widely
scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 45W-48W.



A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N90W to
16N92W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis.
Further W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over the W Bay of Campeche and S Mexico from 16N-20N between 94W-
99W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has weak surface ridging
5-10 kt southerly flow. Radar imagery shows scattered showers
over the Straits of Florida. In the upper levels, an upper level
low is centered over Mexico near 23N98W. Upper level diffluence SE
of the center is enhancing convection over S Mexico. Expect in 24
hours for a 1019 mb high to form over the NE Gulf near 28N87W.
Also expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to form over
Florida, and the Bay of Campeche, during maximum heating


The main feature of concern for the SE Caribbean is the remnants
of Don moving across the Windward Islands, and a tropical wave
along 67W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over
SE Venezuela, and over N Colombia. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. Elsewhere,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW
Caribbean from 16N-21N between 79W-85W. Of note in the upper
levels, an upper level low is centered over E Cuba near 19N75W.
Expect additional convection over the S Caribbean and Central
America over the next 24 hours.


A fast moving tropical wave is supporting isolated showers
across the Dominican Republic and adjacent waters, including the
Mona Passage. The wave will traverse the island tonight and
Wednesday. Expect scattered thunderstorms over the island during
maximum heating Wednesday.


Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas and the W Atlantic, N of
25N and W of 73W. A large 1030 mb high is centered over the
central Atlantic near 34N43W producing fair weather. As typical
for this time of year, tropical waves are moving through the
tropical Atlantic waters. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level high is over the W Atlantic near 33N66W producing upper
level diffluence over Florida. An upper level low is also
centered over the W Atlantic near 25N49W enhancing showers NW of

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