Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W TO 05N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N33W TO 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 13W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC REGION EXTENDS
ITS AXIS NE ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
NOTICED ACROSS FLORIDA STRAITS REGION AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN AND FAIR WEATHER. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 22N91W TO
19N91W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS FEATURE.
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE
NW GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 91W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING HOURS. A
1000 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL MOVE E
EXTENDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF STATES ENHANCING
CONVECTION THAT COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE US AND PUSH S REACHING THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTICED ACROSS FLORIDA STRAITS
REGION AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS W OF 78W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW WHICH
CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
MOVING QUICKLY W ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-78W WHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE EVERY NIGHT AND
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT DEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH COVERS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W CENTERED
AT ABOUT 310 NM E OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND EXTENDING ITS
AXIS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N46W AND EXTENDS TO 23N59W. FROM
THIS POINT THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING TO 23N66W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 28N BETWEEN 44W-47W. A BROAD
1032 MB SURFACE HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DRIFT S. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION AND WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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