Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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139
FXUS65 KBOU 160200
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
800 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Most pcpn has ended except over Lincoln county.  A weak
upper level low will remain over the ern plains overnight.
Thus there could be some redevelopment of warm core pcpn
late tonight with main focus over Lincoln county.  Thus will
keep in a chc of pcpn overnight in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Moisture associated with a weak upper low over central Colorado, stuck
under a broad upper ridge across the intermountain west,
continues to allow scattered thunderstorms to form, mainly south
of I76. This activity is will be trending to the south as more dry
and stable air lies to the north. The upper low will slowly shift
east over Lincoln County overnight, keeping a chance of showers
and storms continuing over there. Main hazards will continue to be
lightning and heavy rain, with storms continuing to be able to
produce 0.75" in half an hour or less. Some storms may produce
outflow winds up to 45 mph with small hail as well. Have warmed
low temperatures tonight over this area as well with cloud cover
in mind.

The upper low will continue moving east Sunday, with warmer
midlevel temperatures moving in from the west. Easterly surface
winds will keep most of the area stable, with the midlevel cap
shown nicely on forecast soundings. Overall however, high temperatures
will be slightly warmer. There should be a little more activity
over the mountains compared to today with some moisture moving in
on northwesterly flow aloft. Most of the plains will remain dry
except the far eastern plains still under the influence of the
upper low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

The sluggish upper low over eastern Colorado will ever so slowly
move into southwest Nebraska by Monday evening so still some
showers over the far northeast corner. Further west, the
overnight Monday period looks fairly dry as airmass becomes more
drier and subsident.

The upcoming week still characterized by the broad high pressure
aloft stretching over the region. However, there are some hints
that the ridge center may begin to shift further east in the
central plains states. This will result in a more weak southwest
flow aloft over Colorado and a bit more influx of subtropical
moisture into Colorado. Appears the flow will favor mountains and
western Colorado with the best chances of afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms while the plains will see only be
isolated in areal coverage. Mayhap by Thursday and Friday a bit
better chance over lower elevations. Temperatures this week will
warm again into the 90s through mid week then a bit of cooling for
Thursday and Friday with more cloud cover. Main impacts with
storms this week will be heavy rain and potential local flooding
from slow moving storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 749 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Winds have shifted to sly early this evening and expect
little change overnight. Otherwise outside of some mid lvl clouds
this evening skies should clear before midnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...RPK



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