Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 151634

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1034 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Issued at 1018 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Latest RAP13 soundings indicate warmer temperatures this aftn
what is currently in the have bumped up the max
temperatures today by another 3 degrees or so. Also winds east
of I-25 may have more of an easterly component to them so have
adjusted those as well for this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Westerly flow aloft will increase through the day as a shortwave
moves over the Northern Rockies early this morning with continued
upper jet interaction. With the jet over the region winds will
increase over the higher terrain through the morning and stay
elevated into Saturday afternoon when the jet lifts north. Wind
gusts from 45 to 50 mph will be possible at higher elevations
through the afternoon. Satellite shows moisture upstream that
could combine with increased westerly flow over the divide to
provide some clouds by morning into the early afternoon. Behind
the shortwave increasing subsidence will help to scatter out
conditions for the afternoon and evening. Short term models are
showing cooler air behind the shortwave so lowered temperatures a
few degrees but highs will still be in the lower 80s.

For Saturday night the gradient will loosen helping to decrease
winds in the mountains with partly cloudy skies as drier air moves
in from the SW. Temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 40s

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

WSW flow aloft will increase on Sun with sfc low pres over ern CO.
Thus it will be another dry day with high fire danger fm the
foothills across portions of the plains.  Highs will be in the 80s
across the plains.

On Mon the flow aloft will become more wly.  Cross-sections show
some increase in moisture by aftn in the nrn mtns north of I-70.
There is a weak disturbance embedded in the flow which could lead to
a chc of showers especially in mtn zns 31 and 33 Mon aftn into early
Mon evening.  Elsewhere it will remain dry with windy conditions
along with high fire danger once again fm the foothills across the
plains.  Highs may end up being 8 to 10 degrees cooler over the
plains as a pacific fnt moves across in the aftn hours.

For Tue rather stg wsw flow aloft will be over the area as sfc low
pres dvlps over srn CO.  There will be some increase in mid lvl
moisture by aftn and as some mid lvl ascent moves into the mtns
there will be chc of showers.  Over nern CO it looks dry although
highs will be cooler as readings drop into the 60s as 850-700 mb
temps drop around 7 degrees c as a secondary cool fnt affects the

By Tue night into Wed both the ECMWF and GFS show an upper level
trough moving across the rgn.  QG fields show favorable ascent along
with increasing moisture.  Thus should see a good chance of snow in
the mtns. Across nern CO another fnt will move across late Tue
night into Wed morning with some upslope flow developing. Thus may
see a chc of showers across the plains. Highs on Wed will drop
back into the 50s over nern CO.

For Wed night into Thu there are some substantial differences
between the ECMWF and GFS.  The ECMWF begins to build an upper level
ridge across the area as the upper level trough moves eastward.
Meanwhile the GFS shows a secondary stronger upper level trough
moving into the area fm the northwest.  This far out really hard to
say which solution is the best although the Canadian Model favors
the ECMWF at this point.  For now will just keep chc pops in the
mtns with a slight chc over the plains with blo normal temps.

By Fri an upper level ridge will dvlp over the area with dry
conditions and warmer temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1018 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Lgt southwest winds at KDEN this morning are progged to become
southeasterly this afternoon. Easterly winds at KBJC may persist
until mid afternoon then go westerly...with west/southwest winds
at KAPA. VFR conditions with no restrictions over the next 24 hrs.
drainage winds this evening...with generally prevailing
west/southwest winds expected for Sunday.


Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Winds will be higher in the mountains today but RH values are
within thresholds so no highlights at this time...For the plains
conditions will continue to dry through the period with
gusty west/southwest winds to 20 kts. Fire danger will be elevated
but sfc winds to not appear strong enough this aftn to warrant
fire weather highlights.

On Sunday...the fire danger will increase across the Foothills...
South Park...Palmer Divide and ecntrl Plains warm temperatures...
to gusty southwest winds and low humidity values which currently
has a Fire Weather Watch in place. This may need to be extended
further north and east...will address this in the issuance of the
aftn package.


Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ214-216-241-246-247.



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