Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 141953
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
153 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER COLORADO WITH A
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER
THEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND 40S WITH CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW BEFORE THE ONSET OF A SHORTWAVE
SET TO PUSH THROUGH BY THE EVENING 700 MB WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS COMBINING WITH DECENT MIXING TO ALLOW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
ABOVE 7000FT BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS OVER NE COLORADO WILL REACH
THE MID 80S AND WITH THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR TOMORROW SET AT
82 WE WILL MOSTLY LIKELY TIE OR BREAK IT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014

OVERALL A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR COLORADO WITH A MEAN RIDGE
POSITION IN THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE DURING DAYS 3-7 THAT MAY INCREASE CLOUDS OR
KICK UP THE SURFACE WINDS A BIT.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL
INCREASE THE WESTERLY WIND SPEED AT 700 MB AT THE SAME TIME A
MODERATELY STRONG LEE TROF DEVELOPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT
RANGE. THE 700-500 MB SPEED SHEER SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MIXING
THE HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE IN THE SOUNDING DOES NOT FAVOR A VERTICALLY PROPAGATING
MOUNTAIN WAVE. AT THIS TIME EXPECT WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH TO
STAY IN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET LATE WEDNESDAY
AND EARLY THURSDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SPORADIC AND LOCALIZED
AREAS OF GUTSY WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.

SLIGHTLY  COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BRING US
BACK CLOSER THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACTION IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE STATE ON FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY KEPT THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE CWA. HAVE
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH ZERO QPF.

AS THE RIDGE IN THE WEST INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING EASTERN COLORADO A SURGE OF
COOL AIR FROM THE NORTH. HEIGHTS ARE QUITE HIGH AND THE AIR MASS
PROBABLY WONT BE A TRUE POLAR AIR MASS... SO TEMPS ARE NOT TOO
FAR FROM CLIMO IN THE GRIDS. DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
IN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LATE SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING UNUSUALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER COLORADO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE GFS.
EITHER WAY IT SUGGESTS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING TO A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
DRAINAGE AT 10KTS BY 02Z. VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN BY 17Z ON THE
15TH WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...KELSCH/MEIER
AVIATION...BOWEN



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