Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
709 FXUS64 KLUB 021755 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through tonight and into Thursday. - Seasonably mild tonight and cooler than normal highs again on Thursday. - Warm and dry during the 4th of July evening. - Warmer and drier starting Friday. Only isolated thunderstorm chances into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The status quo will largely be maintained over the next 24 hours, with cool, mostly cloudy, moist and showery weather continuing. Looking at the bigger picture, the mid/upper low making its way into California around midday today will open and accelerate into the Four Corners on Thursday. Ahead of this deamplifying shortwave, weak southerly to southwesterly flow through the depth of the troposphere will maintain rich moisture over the region, with PWATs holding in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. A weak surface boundary residing to the south of the CWA will continue to loose definition as it washes out and lifts north, resulting in more uniform southerly winds returning to the South Plains region on Thursday. All said, forcing remains nebulous, but with the abundant moisture, expect rounds of occasional showers to continue the rest of today and tonight and on into Thursday. As we warn up just a bit and instability climbs a touch, we`ll likely see some embedded thunderstorms at times this afternoon and evening. Overall rain rates with this morning`s activity has been on the light side, mostly around and under a tenth of an inch an hour. That said, a few small heavier cores have generated pockets of rain in excess of 1/3" in an hour. We will likely see similar trends this afternoon and evening, with localized pockets of moderate to heavy rain possible, especially where any thunderstorms develop. Despite high confidence in the damp conditions continuing into Thursday, details regarding the timing/location of rain at given location remain low given the weak forcing. So, off-and-on showers, maybe some rumbles of thunder, will be the general rule. The bountiful cloud cover and moisture will continue to modulate the temperature, meaning another seasonably mild (but very humid) night tonight followed by a cool July day on Thursday. Highs tomorrow will only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s at most spots. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A building upper high over the 4-Corners region will warm the atmosphere at the surface and aloft starting Friday into next week. Temperatures will warm back to more seasonal levels...near 90s Friday and then lower to mid 90s Saturday through Tuesday. Rain chances also decrease with the warmer temperatures alofts. Isoalted storms will be possible Friday afternoon, but any storms that form should dissipate by early evening before any fireworks displays. Those afternoon or early evening storm chances will remain in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Not a great period to fly as abundant moisture lingers in the region and provides low clouds and periodic rain at the terminals. All of the terminals have experienced showers this morning, and expect the off-and-on showers to continue through this afternoon and evening and right into Thursday morning. A few embedded thunderstorms could also mix in this afternoon and evening, but coverage/location of the deeper convection is less certain and will be handled by amendments, if needed. Otherwise, low ceilings, ranging from low- VFR to IFR (or even LIFR) will be possible over the next 24 hours. Both PVW and LBB have bounced between VFR and IFR this morning, with MVFR most prevalent. Expect MVFR to low-VFR to be the general rule on the Caprock the rest of today, degrading to IFR (perhaps LIFR) tonight. At CDS, VFR, with a few periods of MVFR are most likely today, dropping to at least MVFR late tonight. Expect amendments for both convection and ceilings over the next 24 hours. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...23