Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLUB 290544
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THE DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. A TREND WITH DECREASING
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.  JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT HAD STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX
PNHDL WHERE SATELLITE/RADAR OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING ISOLD SHOWERS
FORMING. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION BUT STILL ISOLD WAS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ERN PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NM ALONG THE TRAILING END OF THE
BOUNDARY. STORM MOTIONS WERE SLOWLY TO THE NNW AS THE CENTER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINED POSITIONED TO OUR EAST. SOME DRIER MID
AND UPPER LEVEL AIR WAS ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM W
CENTRAL TX BUT THIS WAS BEING COUNTERED BY A NEW INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE
COLD FRONT IN THE PNHDL AND ANY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW FROM THEM AND THE
ACTIVITY IN NM. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND RESIDENT MLCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE INDIVIDUAL STORM LIFE CYCLES SHOULD
REMAIN SHORT LIVED AND HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SW TX
PNHDL AND NW SOUTH PLAINS EXTENDING EAST TO THE I-27 CORRIDOR AROUND
TULIA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT DROPPING OFF TOWARD THE SOUTH. ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S. TEMPS ON WED EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WITH SOME THICKNESS LOWERING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL/FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD ON WED WITH CONVECTION STILL
BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND LESS OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AS THE MONSOON FETCH IS SHIFTED FURTHER W INTO NM. STILL
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PNHDL DURING THIS
TIME EXPECT ISOLD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY N OF A MULESHOE-
PLAINVIEW-SILVERTON LINE.

LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
OFF TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE AND BECOME POSITIONED NEAR/OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND...WHERE IT SHOULD STAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM NOW MOVING
TOWARD SOUTHERN MANITOBA WAS PROPELLING A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE
/REINFORCED BY OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS/ MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION AND HANG AROUND FROM LATE WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG WITH INCREASED MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
DIFFICULT PART WILL BE PINPOINTING WHEN AND WHERE THE BEST STORM
CHANCES WILL BE AS THEY WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO BOUNDARY POSITIONS
AND ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER /WHICH ARE NOT EASILY
PREDICTED IN THIS SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN/. THAT SAID...IT DOES
APPEAR THE BEST CHANCES MAY RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD.
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THEREAFTER DRIER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY WIN OUT AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG
WITH THE RISK FOR GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS
OCCUR.

A SLIGHT DROP IN THICKNESSES ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT A MODEST COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE THEN FAVORED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  64  86  65 /  40  40  20  20
TULIA         89  66  86  67 /  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     90  67  89  68 /  20  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     92  68  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       92  71  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   93  68  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     98  74  95  73 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          96  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     98  74  99  73 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.