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000
FXUS64 KLUB 011716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS VEER NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIGHTENING UP AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS OFF THIS FIRST DAY OF AUGUST WITH
THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION THREAT CONFINED TO THE HIGHER RELIEF IN
NEW MEXICO. DESPITE MODEST NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN PLACE EARLY
THIS MORNING...A DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS WEST OF THE MESCALERO
RIDGE FAILED TO OVERCOME A WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL FARTHER EAST.
THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED TODAY AS AN EXTENSION
OF A 700MB RIDGE EXPANDS SOUTH FROM ERN COLORADO AND IN THE
PROCESS VEERS WINDS AT THIS LEVEL FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST. UPSHOT
OF THIS IS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIP ORIGINATING IN NM
SHOULD BE HELD WEST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SPUR WARMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY AS
DEWPOINTS EASILY TUMBLE INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK. REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DECAYING EARLY A.M. STORMS NEAR ROSWELL SEEM ON
TRACK TO SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY OR SOONER...SO TEMPS WERE RAISED
ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES AREA WIDE TO SIDE A BIT CLOSER WITH THE WARMER
MET NUMBERS.

LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THAN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HARD TO TELL HOW FAST TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY DEPARTS AS SURFACE
FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE IS PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT TAKING
THE COLD FRONT FORECASTED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS FAR SOUTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND DPROG/DT PRODUCTS SHOW CONTINUED INCONSISTENCIES
ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. FLOW ALOFT DOES TRANSITION BACK
TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION OR FOR STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
LEAVE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH NO CHANCES
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  78  59  81  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  80  61  83  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  80  61  82  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     61  81  65  83  63 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  81  65  83  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  84  64  85  62 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    63  84  65  85  63 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     65  87  67  87  67 /   0  10  10   0   0
SPUR          64  85  66  86  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     66  87  67  90  67 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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