Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 131733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. DESPITE DRIER DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES
WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND SWISHER COUNTY AT 2 AM. REMOVED PATCHY
FOG MENTION FOR ALL BUT THESE AREAS AS TRENDS OVERALL ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING
EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL
ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON PAR WITH THE MILDER MAV AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ARRIVING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
MOISTEN MAINLY MOST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY GIVEN
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND MARGINAL DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN PLACE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR TIMING AND
LOCATION WHEN IT STALLS OUT AS THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOL AIR WITH THESE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. IT
COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ANY PRECIPITATION OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT SO DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/99/99



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