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000
FXUS64 KLUB 131501 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
901 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO EXTEND AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION FOR THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND ALL OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE MORNING. DID ALSO ADD A LOW SHOWER MENTION
/AROUND 10 PERCENT/ IN THE ROLLING PLAINS IN THE 18-20Z TIME-FRAME
BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT COMPLETELY.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR ALOFT WAS
ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE UA STORM SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DPVA AND DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
A STOUT UPPER JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. ANY ISOLATED/LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ADVANCE ACROSS THE CWA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED GRIDS
AND FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013/

AVIATION...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
CEILINGS DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...BUT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY MID-
LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...VEERING WINDS
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY AND KEEPING SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW NEARING THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER AND A 120+ KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK APPROACHING THE TRANS
PECOS. UPPER FORCING WILL TRANSLATE EAST THIS MORNING AND INTRODUCE
MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS WEST TEXAS COMPLETE WITH DEEP LAYER DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD FINALLY REACH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. COULD SEE
SOME SORT OF CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLING ALOFT
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE...BUT DRYING DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 MPH MAY VERY WELL KEEP THIS DAMPENED. DO
NOT BELIEVE BLOWING DUST SHOULD BE A PROBLEM GIVEN LIGHT RAIN LAST
EVENING INTO THIS MORNING ALONG WITH WINDS JUST BELOW NORMAL
THRESHOLDS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS
TO THE NORTH AND DROPPING OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ON
THE CAPROCK AND MID 20S TO NEAR 30 OFF THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH COLD
AIR ADVECTION. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH
WITH 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB. MAY SEE A GLIMPSE OF LOW
STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MAIN PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LONG TERM...
ON SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH NM INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT OFF THE WEST COAST THOUGH A LOW
WILL BE PRESENT SOME 1000 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO.  NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD FROM
39N145W INTO ALASKA.  AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST...OUR FLOW WILL GO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE NEXT WEEK.  TEMPERATURES
UP IN ALASKA WILL COOL THIS WEEKEND AND DROP INTO THE -40 RANGE BY
MONDAY.  THIS WOULD CERTAINLY SET THE STAGE FOR A DUMP OF COLD AIR
INTO THE CENTRAL USA. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE ECM VECTORS THE
COLDEST AIR INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN THE GFS00Z RUN KEEPS THE COLDEST
AIR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.  ITS PRETTY SAFE TO SAY
THAT IT WILL GET COLDER AROUND THE 21ST...BUT JUST HOW COLD REMAINS
UP FOR GRABS DEPENDING ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOST FRIGID AIR.

BACK TO LOCAL REALITY...SATURDAY SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A BIT ON THE
COOL SIDE AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AFTER TODAY/S FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SCOOT SOUTHEAST
OF OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING SUCH THAT THE MOST OPPORTUNE COOLING
WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE
20S.  MODESTLY BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL RETURN SUNDAY HELPING TO
FURTHER BOOST HIGHS UP TO NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK WITH WARMING
CONTINUING ON INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...BUT LOOKS TO
STALL...TO OUR NORTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST WITH THURSDAY TRENDING
TO BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST.
AND BY FRIDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOLID COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION BY ABOUT MID DAY.  PLENTY CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN BUT THE LONG AND SHORT OF MOST OF THE LONG TERM
IS GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  21  46  22  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         57  23  46  24  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     58  24  46  25  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     58  25  48  26  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       60  23  49  24  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   59  26  50  28  55 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    60  25  50  25  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  26  47  25  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  28  45  29  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  30  47  26  59 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07