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000
FXUS64 KLUB 012149
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

.LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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