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000
FXUS64 KLUB 090507 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1107 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE AT KLBB WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND. THERE IS A MVFR CLOUD DECK MOVING TOWARDS CHILDRESS...
HOWEVER CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN HEIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA
GOING FROM OVC025 TO OVC055 IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH ON WHETHER THIS DECK WILL MAKE IT INTO
KCDS AND WHAT THE CEILING HEIGHT WILL BE...TEMPO GROUP WILL HAVE
TO SUFFICE FOR NOW BUT WILL EVALUATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHINESS CONTINUED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTN...THOUGH WANING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT HAS RESULTED IN
DIMINISHED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS...THOUGH LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWED LIGHT ECHOES JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /THUS FAR NOT AFFECTING THE
CWA/.  LOOKING AT THE SFC...A GRADUAL RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RESULTED IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS DECLINING TO 15-25 MPH PER 21Z
METARS...AS OPPOSED TO 20-30 MPH SPEEDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.
MVFR CLOUDS HAVE DETERIORATED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CAA USHERED IN BY LAST
NIGHT/S COLD FRONT...HAS PROMOTED A SLIGHT TEMP GRADIENT /LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS VERSUS MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE/.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...A NOTABLE SPLIT OF THE UA TROUGH WILL
OCCUR...WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION AND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF WHILE SHIFTING SE FROM SOUTHERN
AZ TO OLD MEXICO. NEITHER PIECE WILL BE MUCH CONSEQUENCE TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONCURRENTLY...A NOTABLE DECLINATION IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR AS A 1030 MB SFC RIDGE SETTLES NEAR THE REGION. LIGHT
WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. TOMORROW...A NEARBY WEAK SFC
LEE TROUGH WILL MAKE A RETURN WHILST SFC RIDGING TAKE ITS TIME
EXITING EAST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME LOCALES
ACROSS THE ERN ZONES EXPERIENCE LIGHT NRLY WINDS /OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS/ VERSUS S-SW WINDS FOR PORTIONS ON THE CAPROCK.
NONETHELESS...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESSES SPELL
WARM TEMPS CWA-WIDE /LOWER 60S/...WHICH LEADS TO REASON THAT THE SFC
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS IS LOSING ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. /29

LONG TERM...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENT COMING UP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK
WILL BE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH LATE
TUESDAY WITH TIGHTENED HEIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOLID WARMING EARLY IN THE WEEK...BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE AREA...THEN A TRENDING-SHARPER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS WE EXPECT A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
WEAK TRAILING TROUGH PERHAPS LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY ALONG
WITH MODEST WARMING. YET ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL...WHILE UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFICATION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK COULD SEND A STRONGER FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AS THE THERMOMETER BOUNCES AROUND IN
THE UPCOMING PATTERN...DRYNESS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERWHELM ANY
SERIOUS QUESTION OF RAIN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING LATE TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WIND
POTENTIAL. A PACIFIC FRONT COULD SLIDE INTO THE AREA EARLY ENOUGH
TO LOWER THREAT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN PARTICULAR...WHILE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FACTORS APPEARS TO
RANGE FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO ADJACENT SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. MONDAY COULD SEE ENOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS BEFORE THIS
TO DEVELOP ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        26  61  32  77  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         27  62  32  78  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     27  62  32  78  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     28  62  32  79  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       29  63  34  79  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   29  61  34  79  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    29  62  34  79  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     29  64  35  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  62  36  80  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  63  35  79  48 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$