Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 160530 RRA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1229 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR at all TAF sites through period.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Fall has returned to West Texas behind last night`s cold front. The
front was already approaching the Texas Gulf Coast as of 19Z, with
temperatures locally only in the 60s (aside from upper 50s over our
far northwestern zones). Breezy northerly winds this morning were
now on the decline and will more fully diminish this evening as
surface ridging settles squarely over the South Plains. This will
set up the region for a seasonably cool night. It appears
temperatures roughly north and west of Lubbock should dip into the
middle 30s, with a few low spots, especially over sandy soil,
perhaps briefly dropping to around the freezing mark. The only
spoiler could be if light westerly breezes develop a little
earlier than expected early Monday, which could in turn could keep
readings a few degrees higher. Regardless, we have decided to
hoist a frost advisory for the southwest Texas Panhandle and the
northern and western South Plains effective from midnight tonight
until 9 am Monday. Temperatures will quickly jump after the sun
rises Monday and with the return of southerly breezes highs will
rebound into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft will then persist on Tuesday before
backing more zonal mid-week as one or more weak disturbances
translate through the flow. These disturbances will have minimal
impacts other than to occasional increase the high cloudiness over
the region. Otherwise, we will see fairly typical fall weather with
warm highs (in the 70s and 80s) and cool lows (mostly in the 40s,
moderating into the 50s late week as low-level moisture gradually
improves).

A  more significant upper trough is still projected to move into the
western states Friday, with the bulk of it moving steadily into the
middle part of the country over the weekend. However, there remains
uncertainty whether or not a piece of energy will drop into the
southwestern states and cutoff into an upper low. Today the GFS is
on board with this solution, though the ECMWF (which had this
solution yesterday) now cuts the low off downstate. We`ll have to
wait and see what comes of this potential system, but at minimum a
decent front should move through late Saturday or Sunday. The more
progressive solutions could still bring a brief shot of rain over
the weekend, though if the upper low to our west does come to
fruition a more prolonged wet period would be in the cards. For
now we have PoPs in the 20 to 30 percent range from Saturday
night into Sunday. After the fairly mild stretch, temperatures
will dip back down below average by the end of next weekend.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021>024-
027>030-033-034.

&&

$$

28/99/99



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