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000
FXUS64 KLUB 181801
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
101 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.AVIATION...
The main aviation concern will be timing the lifting of MVFR
ceilings this afternoon and their possible return tonight.
Confidence is low on the details, but in general we expect VFR to
return by 20-21 UTC. Low stratus should redevelop in the Rolling
Plains tonight, but may stay to the south and east of the
terminals, so we have kept any reductions out of the TAF for now.
Breezy NE winds will continue to slacken and become more easterly
this evening and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1108 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

UPDATE...
11 am temperatures from the West Texas Mesonet show that we are
running about 20 to 30 degrees cooler than the same time yesterday
across much of the Caprock, and about 10 to 20 in the Rolling
Plains. Post-frontal lift and moisture is producing a band of low
clouds across much of the forecast area and even some pockets of
drizzle. We have gone ahead and adjusted high temperatures down a
few degrees to account for the cloud cover lasting longer than
previous indications. Decided not to add a mention of drizzle to
the forecast as expect this to end shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

AVIATION...
Leading edge of MVFR ceilings from PVW-CDS should reach LBB
around 8 AM, before eroding from N-S toward noon. Sustained
northerly winds have reached 30 knots occasionally NW of PVW,
but indications are this will be too brief to warrant an AWW at
LBB. Could still see some BLDU at LBB from open fields upwind of
the terminal, however this too appears too brief in duration for
any meaningful impacts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The much anticipated cold front continued to push south this
morning and was located along a Dora, NM, Muleshoe, Hart, to
Clarendon line as of 345 am. Current forward speed of the front
will have it through Lubbock between 5 and 6 am and through the
southern Rolling Plains between 8 and 9 am. Tight pressure
gradient behind the front will result in sustained speeds of
20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 through the first part of the
morning. As the surface high builds into the region, expect speeds
to drop off through the afternoon and evening hours. How cool we
will be behind the front remains a bit uncertain as guidance
temperatures have once again come in lower than previous runs.
There is a potential for low clouds to arrive behind the front
which would also help to keep temperatures on the cool side by
offsetting some insolation early in the day.

Models continue to start warming things up on Monday as heights
start to rise with the restrengthening of the ridge over the
Desert Southwest. Highs will reach the century mark once again by
Wednesday and potentially remain there through Friday. The
uncertainty revolves around the potential for a tropical system to
push through the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall sometime later
this week. Models are all over the place with this feature but the
further west it is forecast to make landfall would mean increasing
clouds and decreasing heights which will cool us down. If that
doesn`t do the trick, another cold front arriving Saturday will
definitely help to bring temps down below normal for next weekend.
Models keep this front dry as well but a few do break out some
isolated coverage as early as Thursday. Will keep a dry forecast
for now as location and timing remain highly uncertain at this
time.

Jordan

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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