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000
FXUS64 KLUB 272340 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE A PREVAILING TSRA IN AT THIS TIME BUT
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
ALONG THE FRONT BUT LOCATION AND ONSET TIME REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING BEFORE THEN FOR NOW. WILL
EVALUATE WHEN THE LATEST COMPUTER FORECASTS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND SEE
IF WE CANNOT NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99