Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS64 KLUB 222334 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
634 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016
VFR conditions are in place at all three TAF sites and will remain
so through the evening. Area of showers and thunderstorms will
miss KLBB and KPVW but may impact KCDS in 3 to 4 hours.
Uncertainty remains if they will hold together and have not
included in this TAF cycle so expect amendment of KCDS should
storms approach. There is a possibility of MVFR ceilings at all
our TAF sites in the early morning hours Tuesday and have included
this possibility in this TAF cycle but windows should be fairly
small and expect a quick return to VFR conditions by late Tuesday
morning. There could be another round of storms for all our TAF
sites Tuesday afternoon but confidence in the timing is too low to
include at this time.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/
An upper level jet streak is rounding the base of a short wave
trough, moving across southern Arizona and southern New Mexico. This
jet streak will eject across the Panhandle tonight and Tuesday.
Rich deep layer moisture is being drawn northward from South Texas
and northern Mexico as south to southwest mid/upper level flow
increases on the interface between the upper trough and the
subtropical high centered over the Gulf Coast states. This
transport of moisture and some modest mid level dynamics ahead of
the jet streak are creating some scattered showers and
thunderstorms from the Davis Mountains, across the Trans-Pecos to
the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau. This activity should surge
northward through the evening favoring the southeastern third or
so of the forecast area for overnight rain chances.
Tuesday will see the forecast area to the south of the
aforementioned jet streak that will end up stretching from New
Mexico to Missouri by midday. The approach of the right entrance of
the jet Tuesday afternoon working on the lingering deep moisture
(although a southwesterly low level flow may reduce low level
component) should result in the development of scattered
thunderstorms, probably in a southwest-northeast oriented band
parallel to the upper forcing. Where that band might develop still
uncertain, but models seem to favor the southeastern two-thirds for
its placement. Chance PoPs a little higher than MOS guidance
preferred at this time.
Temperatures near MOS continue to be favored. Tonight`s lows should
be warmer than the last several nights, mainly as a response to
increased surface dew point temperatures.
With subtropical ridge parked over SE CONUS, Gulf moisture will
continue to stream NW around the surface high toward West Texas
through the longterm. PWATS at approx 1.5 inches out ahead of an
upper level trough that ejects out of the southern Rockies late
Tuesday into Wednesday provides us first round of several
opportunities at showers and thunderstorms this week and weekend.
Unfortunately, best combination of upper level flow and surface
heating occurs late in the day Wednesday before the upper level
trough flattens and lifts by day break Thursday. Chose to scale
Superblend POPS back somewhat given recent verification trends and
ridging pattern that looks to build in toward end of the weekend.
Both GFS and ECMWF continue to keep bulk of surface fronts that
approach Thursday and Friday to our north across the Texas
Panhandle as well.
Temps will continue to be right around or below seasonal norms for
this time of year with seasonal overnight lows as well. ECMWF
hints at a tropical system in the eastern Gulf early next week
that could effect...negatively...chances for precip beyond the
current long term.