Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 270114 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
814 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Prefrontal winds have really dropped off signaling the end of
critical fire weather for the day. As such the the Red Flag
Warning was allowed to expire at 8 pm. A cold front currently
bisecting the CWA from west-to-east will sweep through the
remainder of the FA over the next few hours with cooler and
slightly more moist air in its wake. The ongoing forecast has a
good handle on this and no adjustments have been made at this
point.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Gusty west
winds sustained around 20 kts at 00 UTC will shift to the north in
the next couple hours as a cold front moves through, but wind
speeds will diminish with the loss of daytime mixing. The surface
winds will eventually switch around to the south late Monday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Vertically stacked low positioned in far southwest KS will crawl
east through the remainder of the day all the while a cold front
accelerates south through the Panhandle and eventually the South
Plains by sunset. This front will deliver dewpoints roughly double
what exist behind a dryline presently shaping up well to our east
near Highway 283. Ample mixing in this dry sector has already
garnered some low-end wind advisory speeds in spots, and more
importantly solid Red Flag minutes which should easily stack up to
3+ hours over much of the South Plains. Wind and RH trends from
Swisher County east to Hall County have proven more favorable for
critical fire weather, so the Red Flag Warning was expanded to
include these counties. Surprisingly, regional webcams have shown
very little blowing dust thus far for winds of 25 to 35 mph.

Westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph will veer NW as the front draws
closer, then trend due north and lessen this evening in its wake.
Favorably timed surface ridging overnight and few clouds look on par
for some chilly lows in our NW counties, but this ridge will remain
progressive and depart the region by Monday afternoon allowing north
winds to turn southeast and slowly remoisten.

LONG TERM...
By Monday evening, flow aloft will have begun its transition to
southwesterly in advance of the next storm system which should be
around 115W at 00Z TUE.  The system will develop into a closed low
near the NM/AZ state line then traverse the Texas Panhandle on
Wednesday.  After the system departs, a short period of ridging will
bring a pleasant Thursday before the next system digs in late
week. This low should cut off along the NM/AZ state line as well
around 00Z SAT. How things evolve into next weekend are less clear
though relatively good agreement exist through next Saturday.

Surface flow will quickly veer from north to south on Monday (a
pleasant day) before moist advection kicks into high gear early
Tuesday morning.  Some streamer showers will be possible, especially
across the eastern  half of the region, whilst the dryline begins
its eastward progression.  Most NWP solutions depict a nice dryline
bulge across the CWFA with strong to severe thunderstorms favored in
our eastern counties though evolution into a squall line is
anticipated. There is a wide variance on just how far east the
dryline will make it before convection initiation. Given NWP
performance of dryline location of late, can`t rule out anywhere
in the CWFA for TS though the risk is certainly lowest near the
TX/NM state line. Most solutions are suggesting what we
anticipated yesterday in that the dry slot will keep things mostly
dry on Wednesday though there is some risk of wrap-around
precipitation (mainly in the north.) A breezy cold front is
anticipated to arrive Wednesday evening with winds Tapering by
afternoon on Thursday. Moist advection then sets up once again
Friday night. As is usually the case, the GFS is overzealous with
the dewpoints and plenty of uncertainty exists on where and if
convection will initiate along the dryline.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

33/23



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