Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 262318
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER IS LIFTING AND STORM ACTIVITY IN NM LOOKS TO STAY THERE.
CHANCES OF STORM ACTIVITY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE ADDRESSED
IN LATER TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BIT OF WOBBLING PROGGED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE VEERING TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT H5. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS...AND
DECENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...IF ANY STORMS WERE TO GET GOING
/AND A FEW HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO/ THEY WILL BE
PULSE-TYPE WITH NEAR-SYMMETRIC COLD POOL EFFLUENCE. BOUNDARY
INTERACTION WOULD LARGELY DRIVE EVOLUTION. THAT SAID...NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MAY
MAKE IT NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THOUGH THE BULK OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS ERN NM. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
INHERITED SLGT CHC UP THAT WAY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL BEYOND FRIDAY. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE KEPT THEIR TREND OF A SLOWER FRONT ON FRIDAY
DELAYING UNTIL THE EVENING OR POSSIBLY STOPPING SHORT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS IS
UNCERTAIN...IT LOOKS TO SET UP FROM THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AS A RESULT...THE
BEST POPS WILL BE PAINTED HERE. FURTHERMORE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY
HANG AROUND ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
BUT CHANCES OF THIS ARE TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECEIVE MUCH OF A COOL DOWN FOLLOWING THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE FA FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NEW MEXICO. BEYOND THIS...IT IS STILL
UNCLEAR WHAT EFFECT AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY HAVE ON THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  65  89 /   0  20  20  30
TULIA         65  95  66  91 /   0  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     65  95  68  91 /   0  10  10  30
LEVELLAND     63  95  67  92 /   0  10  10  30
LUBBOCK       66  97  69  93 /   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  95  67  93 /   0  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  95  68  93 /   0  10   0  20
CHILDRESS     71 100  74  97 /   0  10  10  30
SPUR          68  98  70  98 /   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     70 102  74 101 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74



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