Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 261808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
108 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A weak front was passing south of the TAF sites early this
afternoon. Weak surface ridging across the Panhandle into the
western South Plains will include the Rolling Plains tonight. Very
modest northeast breezes early this afternoon expected to weaken
with light surface wind flow later tonight and early Thursday. Low
level moisture will improve into the area tonight and with the
light wind and overnight cooling has potential at least for some
fog formation. Unsure as yet if there is reasonable risk for
significant visibility restrictions, but have led into for now
with a light 6SM BR mention at both KLBB and KPVW early Thursday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016/

Surface cold front is poised to the NW of KPVW about 60NM. The
boundary should make it through KPVW and KLBB this morning and
with slight delay at KCDS. Behind the boundary, gusty winds are
expected though VFR is expected through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016/


As shortwave departs to our east, an upper level high over NWRN
Mexico will nudge this way resulting in weak anticyclonic flow
across NW TX.  Surface cold front should make it to our NW corner by
about 12Z with initial southerly push across the west.  In fact, it
may take nearly all day for the boundary to reach Stonewall county.
Still, mildly breezy conditions are expected behind the front with
winds up around 15 mph.  That is, until the sun sets this evening
when speeds should fall under 10 mph.  All in all, most areas should
see a rather sunny day.  The potential exception, with a few low
level clouds along the front, might be seen out across the
Rolling Plains.  Insofar as temps go, not a whole lot of difference
is expected in the highs though lows may range from 45 in the NW to
60 SE.


Upper ridging will have a stronghold on the forecast area by
Thursday, though thicknesses won`t be on the increase until Friday
into Saturday. Therefore, increased highs on Friday and Saturday
slightly over the Blend to reflect those higher thickness values.
Our past several weekends of warm, above average temperatures lead
to greater confidence in this weekend`s higher temps as well. As the
ridge relaxes by next Tuesday and heights fall, temperatures should
begin to relent somewhat.  A trough by mid week next week could lead
to precipitation chances, but a major cold front to return us to
more early November-like temperatures remains elusive.




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