Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 191152
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
552 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail however gusty west winds will develop
at KPVW and KLBB resulting in strong crosswinds on N-S runways.
Winds will begin to diminish late afternoon but remain elevated
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Satellite imagery and surface observations at 3 AM show low stratus
and fog lurking just to the north and east of the forecast area in
western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. However, so far there is no
indication of development to the south or west and the latest HRRR
guidance keeps the fog out. We`ve pulled the mention of fog from the
forecast, but there is still a window for some patchy fog around
sunrise across Childress County.

A mid-level trough currently over West Texas this morning will
move to the northeast. As it does a lower-troposphere wind max
will develop on the southwest flank of the trough and swing across
West Texas today. We should start tapping into the wind max
shortly after sunrise across the western South Plains, with gusty
winds spreading east and peaking in the midday hours. The belt of
strongest winds will extend from the western South Plains east-
southeast into the southern Rolling Plains. Winds speeds in this
area should be in the 25 to 35 mph, with gust well into the 40s.
The wind will decrease somewhat in the mid to late afternoon but
will remain breezy in the evening and overnight hours as the next
jetmax quickly approaches the region. The downsloping westerly
breezes will help temps jump up into the 60s across the forecast
area this afternoon, and it will be a relatively mild night with
lows in the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM...
A progressive upper level pattern of short waves and troughs will
result in many windy days ahead over the next week.

Friday will bring strong winds mostly to the Panhandle as a short
wave and associated 500mb wind max of 70kt move out over the Texas
Panhandle. However, deep mixing will occur on Friday and may be
able to tap into a strong wind max at 700mb of 45-50kt.
Furthermore, Friday morning will see a quick increase in winds as
strong low level jet winds mix down to the surface during the
morning hours. Saturday will be a little more tricky with the
winds as and upper level system strengthens and moves out of the
Rockies onto the Southern Plains. Abundant mid and upper level
moisture in the form of clouds may likely prevent much mixing.
Wind maxes aloft will shift to the south with the approaching
system into far West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Surface
winds may end up being relatively light on Saturday given the
aforementioned conditions. We will also see a slight chance of
precipitation with this Saturday system. An upper level jet will
be nosing just south of the South Plains but moisture will be
limited as the low levels. The mid and high level moisture will
battle the dry low levels in creating precipitation reaching the
surface. There is still a slight chance of precipitation in the
southern Panhandle with moisture wrapping around the system which
may be in the form of snow.

A cold front will quickly follow Saturday night into Sunday
morning keeping winds up during the night and morning hours before
decreasing through the daytime. Monday will be a relatively light
wind day before another strong trough skirts to the north of West
Texas on Tuesday bringing strong winds aloft yet again.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

33



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