Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS64 KLUB 020842
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
SHARPENING TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK
SHORWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO TO LOCK DOWN COOLER AIR ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST FOR TUESDAY.

A COOL START MONDAY...LOW 40S MOSTLY...WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY EASING BY MONDAY NIGHT...COINCIDING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS
WILL MAKE A MOVE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL VALUES UNDER SUNNIER SKIES BUT
STILL FALL SHORT...REMAINING IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY. SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GOOD DYNAMICS AND SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. MODEL PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CAPE VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG. NOT SURPRISINGLY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING SOME WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION OUTPUT...THE GFS ON THE
MUCH LIGHTER SIDE WITH THE WRF-NAM MORE ROBUST AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. 00Z TTU-WRF SUPPORTS IDEA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS WELL. WILL EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY AND ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION TUESDAY EVENING FOR SERN ZONES.

AFTERWARDS...REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH-
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THAT MIGRATES TO A POSITION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY
END OF DAY FRIDAY. UNDER THIS SCENARIO SEASONAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY
WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVING INLAND FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO ALLOW IT DO SO. NOT SURPRISINGLY MODELS HANDLE THE
DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW DIFFERENTLY. AGREEMENT IS
THAT IT SHOULD EJECT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST. THAT
WILL TAKE SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT WILL
PROMOTE A SLOSHING DRYLINE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST EACH DAY. WITHOUGH
EVIDENT UPPER SUPPORT ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20-30
PCT RANGE.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/07



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.