Area Forecast Discussion
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287
FXUS64 KLUB 201800 AAB
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1200 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon through Sunday
morning. Late Sunday morning, wind speeds will start to increase
into the 20 to 30 knot range. Periods of blowing dust will develop
at KLBB and possibly KPVW which could result in brief periods MVFR
conditions based on visibility restrictions. KCDS will remain VFR
through this forecast cycle.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Sunday`s wind event remains the focus for the forecast this
morning. In general, this event remains on track with the
mid/upper level low still expected to track onto to the central
High Plains Sunday afternoon with a tight low to mid level
geopotential height gradient south of it through the Panhandle and
West Texas. 00Z model runs may be a bit further north and slightly
slower than previous runs, and this may be part of the reason MOS
wind speeds have decreased. Given the pattern we will not latch
onto this trend just yet but will maintain 30-40 mph speeds west
of the Caprock escarpment and slighlty lower off the Caprock.
Thus, will also keep the High Wind Watch as inherited.

In the short term, winds look to be a bit weaker than yesterday.
The lee surface trough is progged to move out onto the South
Plains with a slight weakening of the surface pressure gradient.
This should result in speeds closer to 10-15 mph rather than
15-25. Temperatures will still be quite warm as 1000-500 mb
thicknesses edge upward. A bit of additional warming will come
from a slightly more favorable downslope component with winds
veering toward due west with the eastward movement of the surface
trough.

The remainder of the forecast looks pretty tranquil with more of a
zonal flow still expected to develop aloft. Winds may remain a bit
gusty on Monday behind the departing mid/upper level low, but they
should become fairly light mid week before a lee surface trough
become reestablished late week. Temperatures not far off seasonal
normals as depicted by MOS look fine at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...
There is no significant change regarding the elevated to critical
potential Sunday. The southern Rolling Plains remain favored for
critical conditions as warmer temperatures there will help push RH
below 15 percent. Areas to the northwest of Lubbock also remain
the least likely to reach critical levels as cold advection there
should limit RH`s there to no lower than 20 percent. Given slight
uncertainties with the RH forecast we will maintain the Fire
Weather Watch as-is.

For today, lighter winds are expected. With the very warm
temperatures relative humidity should fall to 10 to 15 percent.
However, wind speeds are not expected to reach internal criteria
for a Fire Danger Statement, let alone a Red Flag Warning. Will
hold off on any issuance today, although the next shift will
reevaluate if wind speeds increase more than currently expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for TXZ021>044.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

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