Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 052116
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA TROUGH WAS STRETCHED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO
THE SRN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN...AND THOUGH IT HAS ADEQUATE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT...PRECIP DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HARD
TO COME BY ACROSS THE FA /SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED MAINLY ACROSS
SERN CO EARLIER THIS MORNING/. THIS IS BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE UL
SUPPORT IS WORKING WITH RATHER DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS /DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND THUS...PWATS OF ONLY 0.10-0.25
INCHES/. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN USHERED IN BY THE UA TROUGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE DRY POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS...BUT OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS WHAT IS OCCURRING AT THE SFC. A SFC LOW HAS SAGGED
SEWRD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE CWA...AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM A SILVERTON TO A RALLS TO A POST LINE.
THE SFC LOW PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE...WITH
BREEZIEST CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR SW
TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH PLAINS. WHEREAS ELSEWHERE...SFC WINDS WERE
FROM A SW COMPONENT THOUGH STILL MODESTLY BREEZY /10-20 MPH/. THESE
WIND SPEEDS HAVE PROMPTED KEEPING A CAREFUL EYE ON POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS...BUT BELOW NORM TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA MAY KEEP FIRE
WX STARTS AT BAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

AS THE SFC LOW GRADUALLY PUSHES SE TO THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING...THE BREEZY FRONT WILL FINALLY REACH
THE ROLLING PLAINS /WITH THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS BEING LAST TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT/. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR ON THE CAPROCK THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...HOWEVER DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SLOW SERWD PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL 06/06Z-09Z WHERE
THEREAFTER...THE SFC LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO FINALLY RELAX. WITH THE BASE OF THE UA TROUGH SWINGING
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...SO WILL THE HIGH
CLOUDS...COINCIDING WITH DECLINING WIND SPEEDS. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ENCOURAGE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
TOMORROW...AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
PASSAGE OF AN UA RIDGE. THE UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH SFC WINDS
RETURNING TO A SRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS ALSO INCREASING A BIT WILL
LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORM...MAKING FOR A
PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND. /29

.LONG TERM...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY WILL SHOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
ARRIVAL TIME AND STRENGTH OF WINDS FOLLOWING...MOSTLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS. BUT THEY STILL OFFER VARIOUS CHOICES FOR SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS RUN...WE EXPECT MODEST COOLING ROUGHLY IN-
BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF/NAM MOS GUIDANCE. A COOL SURFACE RIDGE
WILL FOLLOW IN NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHEN
DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW TAPPING INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES EVEN THOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAKENING ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE
SLOW WARMING TREND AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND A RIDGE EDGES NEARER
TO THE AREA. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD KICK IN DECENT BY
WEDNESDAY FOR SOME ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WARMING...WHILE MORE NOTABLE
WARMING IS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THROUGH THE
MODEST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY MAY FOLLOW
THIS WAVE BUT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT COOLING.
PRONOUNCED WARMING TO WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD KICK IN BY
SATURDAY IF NOT FRIDAY WHILE WINDS MAY TURN AT LEAST LOW END WINDY
AS WELL BY THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05


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