Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 181051
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WV SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA WHICH IS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS HIGHS BEING LOWERED BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MORE OR LESS
BISECTING THE COUNTRY N/S BY LUNCHTIME ON TUESDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS INTO SRN CALIFORNIA NORTH OF A PROGGED TROPICAL SYSTEM
AROUND 20N121W. THIS TROPICAL FEATURE CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE
EJECTION STRATEGY OF THE SOCAL LOW WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN INDICATED BY THE ECM. EITHER WAY...WE ARE LOOKING
FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THAT
MEANS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL TAKE ON A SLOSHING
NATURE AND BRING A RISK OF STORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.

WITH THE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE RISK OF STORMS ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...AT ISO-SCT CB DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY APPROACH/IMPINGE
ON THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WED AFTN AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG
THETA-E RIDGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EITHER OF THE TWO EJECTION
STRATEGIES WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT MENTIONABLE POPS INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THINGS DRY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF SYNOPTIC DETAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  63  91  63  90 /  10   0   0  10  10
TULIA         92  65  93  66  91 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  65  92  65  92 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     91  65  93  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  68  93  68  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   92  65  92  65  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    92  66  94  65  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     99  71  98  72  97 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          94  67  96  66  96 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     97  71  98  71  97 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26/51





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