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000
FXUS64 KLUB 040542
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE
FROPA AND ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIP BY A COUPLE HOURS AT KPVW AND
KLBB. WE STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
OF 17 TO 22 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THE
TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED
EARLY...PERHAPS SWITCHING TO ALL SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. IT IS
LIKELY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
AT 9 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF
I-40...NOT QUITE YET INTO AMARILLO. THE FRONT IS NOT MOVING
QUICKLY. THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT THROUGH
CHILDRESS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LUBBOCK AROUND 6 AM. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR YOAKUM COUNTY AROUND 11 AM.

ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...MAKING
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS NRN BAJA. DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST
TEXAS...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET CONTINUES OVERHEAD. BUT WITH
LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...WE ARE ONLY SEEING A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THINGS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ALOFT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND THE 00 UTC NAM IS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID-
LVL UPWARD MOTION AND LOW-LVL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
PRECIP TO BE A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT MAY PROVE CRITICAL...BECAUSE IF IT ARRIVES EARLIER WHEN THE
TEMP PROFILE SUPPORTS A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND SNOW...THAT MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. IF
THE LIFT COMES LATER WHEN THE PRECIP IS MORE SOLIDLY SNOW...THE
CHANCE FOR GREATER SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER
PROVES MORE DIFFICULT TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT THERE IS A
HINT OF BANDED FEATURES IN THE QPF FIELDS...SO WE COULD SEE MORE
VARIATION IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
EVENT...AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS
TIME...CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CWA LOOKS TO
BE VALID AND THE START TIME OF 3 AM LOOKS GOOD AS WELL FOR THE
COUNTIES OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA....ALTHOUGH THERE/S BEEN SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM LEA
COUNTY NEWD INTO YOAKUM. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS RUNNING FROM THE
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX...CUTTING ACROSS THE SE SPLNS AND
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  30  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  40  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  40  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  40  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

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