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000
FXUS64 KLUB 300446
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PERIODS. IMPACTING PRIMARILY CDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY FEATURING PERIODIC
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
CLEARING THE AREA VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER...A BKN TO
OVC DECK OF LOW CLOUDS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY
THEREAFTER CAUSING PERIODIC VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR
CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A LESSER POSSIBILITY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION. ALL OF THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LBB AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION. EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. CHANCES APPEAR GREATEST
AT CDS THUS WARRANTING A PROB30 MENTION...BUT TOO LOW FOR MENTION
AT LBB AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND NOW IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OPTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE
CURRENTLY STABLE AIRMASS AND LINGERING SPRINKLE ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS DO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AND
THUS POPS REMAIN UNCHANGED BEYOND 03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  60  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  40  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  60  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16