Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 231129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
629 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

The low level jet we have seen overnight, causing LLWS at all
three terminals, looks to hold on for just a couple more hours as
we go through sunrise. Otherwise, VFR through the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016/

A weak short wave will unceremoniously pass to our south today,
other than to increase cloud cover for those counties along our
southern forecast border as it rolls past. Those clouds may help
keep highs down by a few degrees, especially off the Caprock into
the Rolling Plains. The other feature of interest will be a cold
front that stalls out just as it enters our forecast area this
afternoon. For the extreme southwestern TX Panhandle, this means
shaving a few degrees off the highs today. If you are caught
between these two features, it`s another day of calm, warm fall
weather...not that those features will bring temperatures anywhere
near seasonal norms today either.

Upper level ridging will persist through much of the week and will
continue to result in warm and dry conditions with both low and
high temperatures generally running above to well above seasonal
norms. High temperature MOS guidance is in general running a few
degrees above model blends, which in this pattern seems
reasonable. The only blip through the week comes Tuesday as an
upper level trough will traverse the northern and central plains
states. Good low level moisture return is progged Monday night
ahead of this trough. Widespread stratus seems a likely result
with that stratus persisting through much of the day and, in turn,
potentially limiting high temperature potential. This is looking
to limit convective potential Tuesday afternoon and night as the
upper trough and associated surface trough move eastward. Models
are looking more capped each run with upper level support this far
south looking weaker. As a result will keep precipitation mention
out of the forecast again this morning.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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