760
FXUS64 KLUB 301918
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
218 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 146 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

 - High shower and thunderstorm chances tonight and Tuesday.

 - Relatively cool Tuesday with cloud cover and easterly winds.

 - Below average highs with daily thunderstorm chances persist
   through Friday, then warmer/hotter with lower rain chances
   thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Low confidence forecast this afternoon relative to shower and
thunderstorm timing and location due to the weakly-forced nature of
the convective initiation, but there remains high confidence in
measurable precipitation for all of the area tonight and Tuesday. A
weak surface trough has pushed all the way into the northern Permian
Basin early this afternoon with the eastern end of the trough
curving northeastward across the southern Rolling Plains. This
trough is already serving as the focus for thunderstorm initiation
across the northern Permian Basin while lighter shower activity with
isolated thunderstorms have developed farther to the north in an
area of modest lift underneath a weak mid/upper level shear axis.
All of this points to the need to keep high chance to likely PoPs
going through Tuesday with the potential for weak mid level lift
combined with good mid level moisture, for outflow boundary
interaction with established convection, and further convective
initiation this afternoon/early evening in a warmer, more unstable
air mass across the Rolling Plains. Slow storm motions and
seemingly somewhat random low level interactions could lead to
some heavy rainfall and localized flooding, however the risk of
flooding looks to be too limited at this time to justify a Flash
Flood Watch. Rain-cooled air potential supports lows mostly in the
60s while cloud cover supports a cooler-than-normal day on
Tuesday in line with the previous forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

No big changes made to the extended forecast this iteration. The
plume of monsoonal moisture will linger over the region the next few
days. This will keep plenty of cloud cover and below average high
temperatures in place, along with decent thunderstorm chances
(generally peaking in coverage/intensity during the afternoon and
evening hours). Given weak/nebulous large-scale forcing and minimal
wind shear, overall storm organization/intensity will be limited and
pinpointing the exact timing/location of thunderstorm activity
nearly impossible from day-to-day. However, with abundant moisture
in place and weak steering flow, where storms do occur they will
bring the risk for locally heavy rainfall. A few strong wind gusts
and/or brief small hail cores could occur with the strongest
convection too, though the overall risk of severe weather will be
low.

A shortwave trough is progged to emerge over the central High Plains
late week. This will tend to thin and shift the monsoonal moisture
eastward on Friday. Thereafter, upper ridging will build over the
south-central and southwestern CONUS. This pattern will favor more
insolation and warming temperatures, with highs jumping back into
the lower and middle 90s for most this weekend. Additionally,
rain/storm chances will dwindle along with the deep-tropospheric
moisture. That said, enough heating and lingering low-level moisture
may be sufficient for isolated afternoon and evening convection over
the southern High Plains through the weekend and into early next
week. Regarding the 4th of July, it looks pretty nice with highs
topping out near 90 degrees and low (5%-15%) storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

This is a difficult forecast in terms of TS potential. Weakly-
forced TS expected through much of the forecast period, but there
will likely be periods of storms during this window rather than a
protracted period affecting the terminals. In addition, numerical
guidance is not handling the current activity across the region
well at all as showers and storms are already firing with the weak
trough moving southward through the forecast area. Will upgrade to
a TEMPO wording this afternoon into early evening and continue
with a PROB30 evening to early morning. Otherwise, light winds and
VFR conditions are expected with the possible exception of in and
near thunderstorms.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07