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000
FXUS64 KLUB 242333
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTD VFR WITH LIGHT SELY WINDS VEERING S-SW AFTER 06Z. PRESENTLY
JUST A FEW SMALL SHRA/TSRA ARE FOUND ABOUT 40S LBB MOVG W...BUT
THESE WILL DECAY BY SUNSET AND NOT AFFECT THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPA DATA SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL
JUST A BIT COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.  DECENT CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  WITH THE RIDGE ON TOP OF US RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TOO FAR WEST AND EAST OF US...IT
APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE SLIM TO NONE.
RUC/HRRR/AND ARW-WEST ARE ALL STILL TRYING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM/GFS/TTU WRF KEEP THINGS DRY.
WILL GO WITH NO POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR MORNING LOWS FRIDAY.  HIGHS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
OVERDOING TEMPS BY 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.  VERIFICATION
NUMBERS SHOW THAT BY FAR THE BEST PERFORMING FIELDS FOR TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN EITHER THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW OR WEIGHTED MODEL
FIELDS AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE WEIGHTED MODELS FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW.  THIS KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE CAPROCK
WITH 99 TO 102 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY START OFF HOT AND DRY...BUT WILL END
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT AS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED COURTESY OF AN UA LOW
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. DESPITE A
FLATTER UA RIDGE...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 27-32 DEGREES C SUGGEST HOT
TEMPS WILL ENDURE /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS/.
RELATIVELY WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE UA RIDGE AND AID TO
IGNITE STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE PRECIP ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEARING THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE BY THE EVENING...THOUGH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND ERN NEW
MEXICO.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW WILL
DIVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THUS CAUSING THE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. AS SUCH...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHARPEN. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER IN SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION AND AS A
RESULT...IS QUICKER IN DEPICTING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND ARE A TAD SLOWER ON ALL COUNTS...THEREBY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIP IMPINGING ON THE FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HENCE...A FEW DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE HASHED OUT.
NONETHELESS...A COOLER AND WETTER TREND IS STILL BEING EXHIBITED
NEXT WEEK...AS MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO COULD
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A COLD PASSAGE. FURTHERMORE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS BEING
DEPICTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH PWATS ENDURING ABOVE 1.00
INCH...ADDITIONAL RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS COMMENCING SUNDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  98  66  98  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  96  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    68  98  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72 100  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          70  99  69  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72 102  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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