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000
FXUS64 KLUB 100442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING...AND MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY GUSTY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHINESS HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THOUGH THE REMNANT CUTOFF LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN AWAY ACROSS
WRN OLD MEXICO NEAR THE BAJA OF CALI. OTHER THAN THIS SAID
DISTURBANCE INTERMITTENTLY STREAMING THIN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...IT IS NOT AFFECTING SOUTHERN PLAINS
SENSIBLE WX. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A NEARBY WEAK SFC LEE TROUGH HAS
PROMOTED WINDS TO VEER TO THE S-SW WITH RATHER ANEMIC WIND SPEEDS
/5-10 MPH/. PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND AN EXITING COOLER AIRMASS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH IS
SOME 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE
WRLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S/. TOMORROW...A DEEPENING SFC
LEE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW WINDS BY THE AFTN...WHICH
IN TURN AIDS TO INCREASE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
BREEZY...DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH COULD PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. CONCURRENTLY...THE
CUTOFF UA LOW WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND ONCE
AGAIN...PROVIDE ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS SRN
LOCALES. /29

LONG TERM...
WIND POTENTIAL WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEP MIXING INTO THE TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END WINDY OR HIGH-END
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A
FAIRLY COMPLEX SPLIT JET STRUCTURE. INITIAL 500 MB JET CORE AROUND
50KTS WILL EDGE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ENOUGH TUESDAY THAT
SOUTHEAST ZONES MAY PROVE MORE FAVORED FOR WINDS THAN NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. AND WEAK LOWER ATMOSPHERIC COOLING STILL APPEARS THAT IT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
THAT ALSO MAY LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES.
HOWEVER HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT ALSO WILL BE PLOWING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
PANHANDLE AT SOME POINT...NOT SURE IF THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY BUT THIS COULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO GENERATE
EVEN STRONGER DAYTIME WINDS. ANYWAY...SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
ABOUT HOW MUCH TO BUILD UP WIND POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY.

THERE SEEMS LESS DOUBT THAT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN QUITE WINDY...
AS LATEST SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TIGHTER WITH SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND ALSO DO NOT FULLY DECOUPLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE VERY WELL COULD BE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM JUST OFF THE DECK. ON THE OTHER
HAND WE ARE NOT TOTALLY READY TO BUY INTO THE 16 MB PER 3 HOUR
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES PER THE WRF/NAM 12Z RUN...OR THE GREATER
THAN 140 MICROBARS PER KILOMETER PACKING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING. SO LEANING MORE TOWARDS A SOLID WIND
ADVISORY EVENT VERSUS WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND SCENARIO. WE DID
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT A NOTCH WHILE ADDING AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST DURING THE EVENING.

ATMOSPHERE WILL UNWIND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT AND VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A COOL DAY. TRAILING
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EJECT FLAT ENOUGH FRIDAY TO AVOID MENTIONABLE
PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THEN...BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL SEND A SHARPER FRONT
SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...COOLER CERTAINLY LOOKS A GOOD BET
BUT DRY AS WELL. BIGGEST CHANGES CAME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD...FEW OTHERWISE. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY: A NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THUS SLIGHTLY BREEZY 20-FOOT SOUTHWEST WIND
SPEEDS OF AOA 15 MPH TOMORROW AFTN. FURTHERMORE...THIS DOWNSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
UPPER 70S...OR SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WARM...DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. /29

TUESDAY: DEEP MIXING INTO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL CLIMB FURTHER INTO THE 80S.
SOME LOWER LEVEL COOLING OVER THE NORTHWEST COULD LIMIT QUALITY
RED FLAG MINUTES THAT AREA THOUGH COULD STILL BUILD UP. ANOTHER
CONSIDERATION WILL HAVE TO BE THE VERY SHARP COLD FRONT EXPECTED
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 35 MPH
IN SOME AREAS AND GUSTS NEAR OR OVER 50 MPH. CONTINUED TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL IN THE OUTLOOK PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  74  39  69  26 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         30  74  38  72  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     32  75  39  76  31 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     31  75  38  79  31 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       33  76  40  79  32 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   33  75  39  81  32 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    33  75  39  82  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     37  78  43  82  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          37  77  43  83  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  77  45  87  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16