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000
FXUS64 KLUB 250911
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
411 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY ALTHOUGH
CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SMALL. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND MOVE
EAST TOWARDS WEST TEXAS. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT VERY LITTLE WILL EXIST. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...LITTLE TO NO FORCING WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.
A LACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY LOW.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNCAPPED BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL LEAD TO SURFACE BASED CAPES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
LEAD TO LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE ONLY
ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30KT AT BEST. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY UNDER
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AGAIN. JDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PULL THE SURFACE DRY-
LINE FURTHER EAST MORE INTO CENTER OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING APPEAR MODERATELY
FAVORABLE WHILE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN A BIT LESS-SO ALTHOUGH WE
LIKELY WILL SEE WEAK IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH THAT MAY CREATE SOME
FAVORABLE LIFT. ANYWAY...SET-UP ALLOWS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING BOTH DAYS
COULD LOCALLY BREAK THE CAP AND ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY. RAISED TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
MOSTLY DRY SOILS ARE BAKING MORE EACH DAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND PERHAPS BEGIN
BACKING SLIGHTLY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS FUNNELING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD BRING MOISTURE BACK WEST ALTHOUGH
FORCING LATE ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE. ANOTHER SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

BY WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD BE
SWINGING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY. LATEST ECMWF WHICH HAD BEEN FAVORING A CLOSED SOLUTION
HAS NOW BECOME MORE OPEN WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
SUFFICIENTLY SHARP ON EITHER SOLUTION FOR OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP
MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE DRY-LINE ALSO
SHOULD BULGE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...BASED ON AVERAGE OF ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
THURSDAY NOW SHOWS WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WE HAVE
SHIFTED LOW THUNDER CHANCES FURTHER EAST SINCE DRY-LINE MORE
LIKELY TO MIX OUT OFF THE CAP-ROCK.

BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY THERE MAY BE A COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTH
FROM THE PANHANDLE BUT UNCLEAR WHERE BOUNDARY WILL BE OR IF IT
WILL IMPACT THUNDER CHANCES FOR OUR AREA. DRY FORECAST HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR NOW AT LEAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  61  95  60  97 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         87  61  95  64  97 /  20  20  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     85  62  94  64  97 /  20  20  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     86  63  95  63  97 /  20  20  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       86  65  95  65  98 /  20  20  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   87  62  95  63  98 /  20  20  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    87  63  94  63  98 /  20  20  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     88  68  94  68  99 /  20  20  10  10  20
SPUR          85  65  93  64  96 /  20  20  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     86  68  93  67  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05