Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 211131
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
531 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.AVIATION...

Gusty winds will be the main concern today. Winds will increase to
20 kts late morning then to 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts early
afternoon. Periods of blowing dust will reduce visibility to MVFR
at PVW and LBB after 19Z. Winds will decrease to around 20 kts
after 00Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Today`s wind event remains on track with a mid to upper level low
progged to move over southeastern Colorado and western Kansas
today while the surface low tracks across the Texas Panhandle. The
resulting tight surface pressure gradient and mid level height
gradient will be the drivers of the event supported by 45-55 kts
mid level winds being mixed to the surface. Maybe the biggest
concern regarding warning vs advisory is how efficient the mixing
will be with some models suggesting that the air mass may remain
too stable to maximize mixing. Maybe the best chance to maximize
momentum transport will come across areas to the northwest of
Lubbock late this afternoon. Would also like to see MOS wind speed
values a little higher, i.e., over 35 kts rather than between 30
and 35 kts. Still, the positives favoring at least some areas on
the Caprock meeting high wind criteria outweigh the negatives and
will upgrade the watch to a warning. The eastern of half of the
forecast area will find it harder to reach criteria and will run
with a wind advisory for those areas. Fire weather is the other
concern this morning and is addressed in the section below.

Monday will see the Kansas storm system move to northern Missouri.
Surface pressure gradients will remain a bit tight across the
area, especially early in the day and across the northeastern
third of the forecast area. We are not anticipating them as strong
as advisory criteria, but the possibility exists. Otherwise the
forecast continues to look like a quiet one. After a period of low
amplitude ridging to our west midweek an upper trough is progged
to develop across the western CONUS with breezy south to southwest
winds returning to the forecast area.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather still on track for today with only the far
southwestern Panhandle likely to remain in the elevated category
thanks to higher RH due to lower temperatures. Will upgrade the
watch to a warning for all but four counties in the northwestern
part of the forecast area. Moving into Monday, some gusty winds
are likely at least through the morning across the far
southeastern Panhandle as the storm system responsible for today`s
strong winds moves away from the area. Wind speeds may drop off
before RH falls to or below 15 percent, so a period of elevated,
if not critical, fire weather will be possible across that part of
the area Monday afternoon if wind speeds decrease slower than
currently expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
TXZ024>026-028>044.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening for TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

99/99/08



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