Area Forecast Discussion
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950
FXUS64 KLUB 190420
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1020 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR will persist through the TAF period. Winds will strengthen a
little out of the southwest on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 929 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

UPDATE...
Temperatures this evening already have cratered where winds have
become especially light. Unlikely to see a lot more additional
drop - but still need to lower minimums for much of the area. Have
just updated for slightly lower minimums tonight. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
After yesterday`s record warmth, temperatures were about 30 degrees
cooler this afternoon thanks to an early day cold front. In addition
to the cool down, gusty northerly winds have prevailed though they
were slowly decreasing through the early afternoon hours. The wind
speeds have recently fallen below advisory levels (sustained at 31+
mph) so we have canceled the advisory a little ahead of schedule.
Otherwise, the slow decreasing trend in the wind speed will
continue through late afternoon until they drop off more
significantly around sunset. Light winds, clear skies and very dry
will follow overnight as a surface ridge settles squarely over
the region and this will allow for ideal radiational cooling and a
chilly night. Lows will dip down well into the 20s on the
Caprock, with upper 20s and lower 30s more common in the Rolling
Plains.

The progressive surface ridge will mean a quick return of southerly
flow on Sunday, and with full insolation temperatures will rebound
into the upper 50s and lower 60s by late in the afternoon. Even
warmer weather will follow Monday as breezy southwesterly winds
propel highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s. The warming trend
will be interrupted on Tuesday as an early day cold front tied to a
storm system traversing the Great Lakes sweeps through. A weak
shortwave trough will also dive southeastward over West Texas
(downstream of an amplifying western ridge) Tuesday, but it will
bring little more than passing middle and upper level cloudiness.
The early Tuesday FROPA will knock highs back down into the 60s for
most locations Tuesday and Wednesday. Warmer conditions will return
late next week, just in time for the holiday, as the flattening
western ridge bends this way. Thanksgiving will be dry and mild
with highs likely in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Eventually
another brief dump of cooler air will likely move into the South
Plains next weekend as another storm system moves across the
northern tier of the nation. Regardless, it appears dry weather
will remain the rule for West Texas for the next week plus.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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