Area Forecast Discussion
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114
FXUS64 KLUB 062118
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...
AS THE DEPARTING UA LOW WHICH BROUGHT BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN...RIGHT ON ITS HEELS IS A WEAK UA
RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD. THIS UA RIDGE IS PROMOTING INCREASING 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELDS AND THIS...COUPLED WITH A RETURN TO W-SW SFC FLOW AND
PLENTY OF INSOLATION HAS LED TO TEMPS WARMING NICELY INTO THE 50S.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER A W-SW WIND COMPONENT IS A WARMER WIND
COMPONENT WHICH WILL MITIGATE EXTREME COOLING. MOS GUIDANCE ALSO
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...AND A FEW LOWER
30S OFF THE CAPROCK.

TOMORROW...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE DEPARTED AND FLOW ALOFT WILL
COMMENCE TO VEER TO THE NW COURTESY OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF UA
RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. CONCURRENTLY...AN UA LOW TRAVERSING
THE NRN PLAINS AND NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTN...WILL SEND DOWN A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT /15-20 MPH/ TO
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY
LATE AFTN /MAJORITY OF MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE WITH THIS TIMING/. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO NOT BE AS QUICK TO FILTER IN THE CAA VERSUS THE
QUICKER NAM...GFS AND HRRR. WILL THEREFORE LEAN TOWARDS THE MAJORITY
LATTER MODELS AND THUS SHOW HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. /29

.LONG TERM...
WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...A SHARP UPPER RIDGE WILL JUT NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST. A WEAK LOW TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL EDGE
EAST THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO AS THE UPPER RIDGE VERY SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MID WEEK. MINOR
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR AS A WEAKENING WAVE GRAZES OVER
THE TOP LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. BUT
THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HANG BACK TO OUR WEST
LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT EXPOSED TO
WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL INTRUSIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY...AND
PERHAPS LATE FRIDAY. NOT UNTIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PERHAPS WILL AN
EVEN MORE FLATTENED RIDGE AXIS FINALLY BEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND ALLOW POTENTIAL BETTER WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND.
AND BY MONDAY IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE MAY RE-CARVE OUT THE EASTERN
TROUGH AND BOUNCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST AGAIN.

IT WILL BE COOL TO START THE WEEK AND WE HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
FOR MORNING LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING OWING TO THE DRY AIR
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FLOW. MODEST SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
SHOULD ALLOW WARMING BEFORE THE WEAK BOUNDARY TUESDAY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG FOR TUESDAY. DETAILS
ON SURFACE WIND SPEEDS A BIT LESS CERTAIN LATER IN THE WEEK THOUGH
NOTHING AT THIS POINT AT LEAST LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH GREATER THAN
ABOUT 20 KNOTS. WE TRIMMED THE WARMING TREND SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE
RETURN EARLY THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNCERTAIN AT BEST ALTHOUGH SO FAR
OUT ALL THIS COULD CHANGE IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05



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