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000
FXUS64 KLUB 181734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY NOW IN SLOW
RECOVERY. MAIN SURFACE FORCING HAS PUSHED TO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FROM THERE...THOUGH BECOMING A BIT
DIFFUSE AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE ON THE
CAP-ROCK. BELIEVE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY WILL SHOW WITH
FORCING NEAR THE STATE LINE POTENTIALLY VALID FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDER THAT AREA ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 650-600 MB
LAYER SHOULD COUNTER THAT TO SOME EXTENT. LATER IN THE EVENING THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE THUNDER
CHANCES SPREAD IN FROM DEVELOPMENT ORIGINATING TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH AS A WEAK IMPULSE GLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. WE TRIMMED THUNDER MENTION MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HOLDING ON TO PREVIOUS CHANCES FOR TONIGHT.
BEST OPPORTUNITY SEVERE NEAR THE STATE LINE LATER TODAY THOUGH
CONDITIONAL ON THE CAP BREAKING...THEN SPREADING INTO MAINLY
NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
RETAINED LOW CHANCE THUNDER FOR TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING
UNTIL A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY
REDEVELOPS. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SHRA AND ISOLATED TS WEST OF KLBB UNLIKELY
TO AFFECT THAT TERMINAL IN THE NEAR TERM. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TS
POTENTIAL DURING THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ERN NM AND AREAS WEST/NW OF KLBB THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST. FOR NOW PROB30 GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS LOOKS
GOOD WITH LATER SHIFTS ABLE TO FINE TUNE AS NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AT 07Z SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 12Z...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER FROM LAS
VEGAS TO CLOVIS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS COULD CONTINUE TO OR EVEN A
BIT AFTER 12Z WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT DRIVING THEM SEWD INTO 20 TO
30 KT ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD ABATE TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT WORTH KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION GOING AFT 12Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AFTN AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z MODEL NOT INSPIRING TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH
DETAILS BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF FLAT
RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUING WITH THE SRN BRANCH EXTENDING FROM SOCAL TO THE MID-MS
VALLEY...AND A GENERAL SELY MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. SPECIFICS OF THAT LATTER POINT A BIT FUZZY GIVEN
THAT APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS DRIVEN WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES PERSISTING INTO THE AFTN BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVER
SELY FLOW ALREADY SEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT LOW LEVEL FLOW. ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL RUNS GIVES A
PREFERENCE TO THE GFS THAT DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS ERN
NM AND POSSIBLY WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA IN AN AREA OF PROGGED
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OF ABOUT 35-40 KTS AND HODOGRAPHS SHOWING GOOD TURNING IN
LOWEST 3 KM SUGGEST A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS
OF THE EVENT FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR A LINEAR MCS...ALTHOUGH THAT
LATTER PART IS NOT AS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS ATTM. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES PARTICULARLY WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP SHOWN BY THE
WRF-NAM...AND AS A RESULT WILL KEEP POPS MOSTLY IN THE 30-40 PCT
ATTM.

FCST HIGH TEMPS TRICKY FOR TODAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN PARTICULAR
WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER SUGGEST RELATIVELY COOL MOS
GUIDANCE A GOOD STARTING POINT. GOING BACK TO THE PRECIP DISCUSSION
ABOVE...THESE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY KEEPING THE CAP TOO STRONG IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ANOTHER REASON NOT TO INCREASE POPS ATTM.

LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE TOMORROW...AS UA RIDGING PLAGUES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AFTER TODAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLIM AS A
SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE /CENTERED CLOSE BY/ RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW. INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE TEMPS IN THE 90S /NOT OVERLY HOT/ AND STORMS BECOMING
HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UA LOW MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...WILL ENCOURAGE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SW FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY FROM THE SWRN CONUS...TO ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ORIENTATION OF THE
FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FA.
HOWEVER LONG TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE UA RIDGE
SHIFTING A BIT TO THE EAST TO NEAR CENTRAL OK...WHILST A SFC TROUGH
DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM TAKING SHAPE EACH AFTN-NIGHT
WED-SUN. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THE HELP OF TOPOGRAPHY AND SFC
CONFLUENCE PROVIDED BY THE SF TROUGH...STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME. WITH
ADEQUATE SWRLY MEAN FLOW...STORMS COULD CLIP THE FAR WRN AND NWRN
ZONES. THIS OF COURSE WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH...AND THEREFORE ITS TOO EARLY TO BE
CERTAIN ABOUT ITS EXACT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION. WILL HOLD ON TO 10-13
PERCENT ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES...THUS MAINTAINING SILENT WX
GRIDS ATTM. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL PROVE DIFFICULT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  94  65 /  40  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  91  66  95  67 /  40  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  92  66  95  68 /  40  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  68  96  69 /  30   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       68  94  68  96  69 /  30   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   70  97  68  97  69 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    70  96  67  97  69 /  30   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     68  93  69  98  72 /  30  10  10  10  10
SPUR          69  95  68  97  71 /  30  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     70  96  71  99  73 /  30  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05