Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS64 KLUB 292313
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
613 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016
Will not change much from previous forecast. VFR cigs to
predominate, but maybe a period of MVFR tonight. Bulk of
precipitation will be focused to the north and west of the
terminals. More significant instability is pretty limited to a few
pockets, and progs suggest that will continue through tomorrow.
Certainly through tonight will favor SHRA over TSRA.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/
Upper level low continues to slowly unwind across SRN Colorado this
afternoon. All in all, the models have been too far south with this
feature and as such the bulk of the energy associated with the
system is well north of our area. Regardless, juicy monsoonal
moisture continues to stream northward into the region. Surface
heating has been more limited today west of the escarpment and the
lower reflectivities show this. However, looking at tower growth up
to a modest mid level capping inversion, respectable instability
exists. Some areas will experience protracted period of mesoscale
enhanced rainfall though the general movement of the activity, near
20 mph, should help to mitigate flood concerns to some extent. The
airmass will remain largely unchanged into Tuesday afternoon with
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms especially west of
the escarpment. Scattered activity, however, remains possible in
the Rolling Plains.
Some threat for flooding will exist tonight into tomorrow with the
best shot of the threat west of I-27. However, confidence in a
flooding scenario is perhaps 30 pct or so and as such, insufficient
to issue a watch at this time. This is due in part to favorable
storm motion vector and velocity. The highest 24 hour totals have
been across Yoakum county where the predominant soil type is sand.
A complicated forecast over the long term with what appears to be a
drying trend a the very end. Low level moisture looks to continue to
pump into our area for the next several days and will take at least
through the weekend to dry out. At the mid to upper levels, the
drying trend will occur a bit faster as an upper ridge develops over
the weekend. By Monday we return to established southwesterly flow
aloft, effectively clearing the moisture field at the mid to upper
levels. Until then, we contend with the moisture we have and what to
do with it.
The upper level low will be weakening and moving out on
Wednesday...some models show it to be as weak as a short wave.
However, with PWATs at 1.5" plus, rain chances, especially across
the western zones should still be in the chance range on Wednesday.
For Thursday, things get a bit more interesting, as the latest GFS
pulls jet energy and upper level divergence further south over our
western and northern zones. This could help to enhance storm
development in the afternoon as a surface trough develops, and with
moisture at all levels still being abundant, kept chance PoPs with
the moderate intensity mention. After Thursday, though, as we begin
to lose upper level support, began to taper PoPs back to slight