Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLUB 301129 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE KCDS TAF SITE THIS MORNING WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIP IS
BYPASSING KLBB. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AFTER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
PLACED PROB30 GROUPS IN BOTH TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND COULD
POTENTIALLY ALSO BRING IN MVFR TO HIGH IFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL BE IS NOT HIGH AND
WILL HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS MATCHES UP WITH
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AT 700 HPA LOCATED
ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A PRETTY BIG
BATCH OF CONVECTION...AND RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING NEW CONVECTION
ORGANIZING INTO A LINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO.  THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS FOR THIS REGION.

NEXT FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE 00Z NAM/03Z RUC
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP THROUGH THE
DAY.  REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STILL EXPECT TO SEE
THE FRONT HELP FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LACK OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAY KEEP BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE INSTEAD OF HAVING IT BEEN
WORKED OVER BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  PWAT VALUES ARE BETWEEN 75 TO 99
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
SHIELD IS FROM MORNING STORMS WHICH MAY IMPACT HIGHS ACROSS THIS
AREA.  ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE BEST COVERAGE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPS
TEMPS ACROSS THE CAPROCK FALL INTO THE LOW 60S.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. THIS
PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NORMALLY YIELD DECENT PROSPECTS FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...RATHER COOL AND STABLE AIR IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE AREA
BEHIND TODAY/S FROPA...AND THIS BRINGS QUESTION TO JUST HOW FAR EAST
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CAN MAKE IT EACH DAY. INSTEAD...THE CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO PROPAGATE MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E/INSTABILITY
AIR FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
STILL...AT LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
EDGE ACROSS THE STATE LINE...AND GIVEN THIS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO PICK UP ON A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...ROTATING AROUND/THROUGH THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVING TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...THIS COULD HELP ENHANCE STORM CHANCES
AND PERHAPS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES
AND SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID NOT FULLY BITE OFF ON THIS YET...THOUGH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. BEFORE THEN...RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS AND PERTURBED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...PERHAPS
A STORM...INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE HELD ON TO A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH WE DID DRY IT OUT BEYOND 18Z.

BY LATE WEEKEND IT DOES APPEAR THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND BRING AN END TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION AS
THE MONSOONAL CONVECTION REMAINS TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WESTERN DISTURBANCES BREAK OVER/THROUGH THE
RIDGE...THOUGH ANY INCREASED STORM CHANCES WITH THIS WOULD LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING
WEEK AS EVEN THE UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG FOR EARLY
AUGUST. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY AS CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO BREAK UP...AND THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OR ALL
OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  59  78  60  80 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         87  62  77  60  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  62  77  61  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  62  80  62  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  63  79  64  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  61  82  62  85 /  20  40  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  63  81  64  85 /  30  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     87  66  81  64  86 /  50  40  20  10  10
SPUR          93  66  80  64  86 /  30  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     98  69  83  66  87 /  30  40  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.