Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 200441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the TAF cycle.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016/

Strengthening shortwave trough will traverse to our north later
this evening with flow aloft becoming northwesterly into Thursday.
A cold front, situated from Vigo Park to Needmore at 2pm...will
continue to make its way southward with the leading push across
our western zones. As we get closer to peak heating, we should
start to see a bit more cumulus development/agitation along the
frontal boundary which may lead to convective initiation this
evening. Surface dewpoints have recovered nicely with near 60 dews
SE of a line from Paducah to Jayton. Storms could become strong
before moving S/SE of the Rolling Plains by midnight. Further
west, mildly breezy northeasterlies should persist much of the
night and Thursday.

Cooler temperatures will be short lived at the end of this week
following the cold front today.

The center of an upper level ridge will move from west to east
across central Texas this weekend. This will lead to rising
heights/increasing thickness values which will lead to the
substantial warmup. Persistent surface troughing to the west of
the region this weekend into early next week will result in a
boost in southwesterly winds and temperatures as well.

There still exists quite a bit of uncertainty starting around
Tuesday next week. Operational models still agree on some sort of
cyclone entering the pacific northwest early next week giving us a
more favorable southwest flow aloft. A weak short wave or two is
forecast to move through this southwest flow around Tuesday but is
too far out to pin down any specifics at the moment. Furthermore,
there is extremely high spread in ensemble solutions.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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