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000
FXUS64 KLUB 072333
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WILL KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS LESS THAN OPTIMAL HERE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING CIGS TO
LOWER TO IFR AT KLBB...WE MAY SEE PERIODS OF NEAR VFR CIGS. HOWEVER...THESE
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. KCDS SHOULD STAY MVFR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME VARIANCE EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...SOME
FRDZ WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS UNCLEAR.
RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS RETURN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

SHORT TERM...
LOW STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WERE VEERING AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS HAS CREATED WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITHIN A FAIRLY NARROW LAYER. BELOW THIS LIFT LIES A VERY DRY
LAYER WHICH ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TO
OVERCOME. A FEW ECHOS THAT APPEARED THIS MORNING DID NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT SLEET AND FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND.
WEAK UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SHALLOW. GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY CLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO FREEZING FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING.

A SURGE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
PANHANDLES WILL BRING IN THE WESTERLY WINDS AND A WARMUP IN
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE 20S
ONCE AGAIN. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM UP JUST A BIT INTO
THE 30S TO LOW 40S AS WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW AND
SURFACE WINDS TRY TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH BUT LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OR WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS OVERDOING STRONG
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROF THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. ALSO KEEPING
PRECIPITATION AT BAY WILL BE VERY DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHICH SHOULD HELP EVAPORATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL.

REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A CYCLE OF WEAK FRONTS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A BIT OF COOLING AND THEN A SLIGHT WARMUP THE DAY
AFTER. FRONTS LOOK TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH COOLING WILL ARRIVE WITH THE FRONTS
SINCE THE COLDEST AIR WILL PUSH MORE EAST THAN SOUTH THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
CAN RETURN AHEAD OF EACH FRONT. ALSO...BEST LIFT WITH ANY TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE WELL SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FAVORING DRY
CONDITIONS HERE AS WELL.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        12  40  10  26  13 /  10   0   0  10  10
TULIA          9  38  10  26  13 /  10   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     11  40  11  27  14 /  10   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     13  44  16  29  14 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       14  43  14  28  13 /  10   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   16  44  19  29  21 /  10   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    15  44  18  30  16 /  10   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     12  38  10  28  15 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          12  42  15  28  16 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     14  40  14  29  18 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26