Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLUB 031144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO
SPOTTY TO INCLUDE MENTION AT ANY SITE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ALL SITES COULD GET IN ON THESE...BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION
OUT FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL HELP
PROVIDE LIFT FOR THESE STORMS LATER ON TODAY...BUT AIRMASS
RECOVERY IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE
EVALUATED IN TERMS OF DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING AND DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT SHOULD
NEGATE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  64  92  66 /  40  40  10   0
TULIA         91  66  93  68 /  40  60  10   0
PLAINVIEW     91  67  93  69 /  40  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  70 /  40  50  10   0
LUBBOCK       93  70  95  72 /  30  50  10   0
DENVER CITY   94  66  97  69 /  30  30  10   0
BROWNFIELD    95  67  95  70 /  30  40  10   0
CHILDRESS     95  73  98  74 /  60  60  20   0
SPUR          95  69  96  72 /  40  50  20   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 100  75 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.