Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 010010
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.AVIATION...
High winds were peaking near the TAF issuance time for both KPVW
and KLBB. Profilers from the West Texas Mesonet indicated
potential for a gradual decline over the next two hours. And we
will amend as the wind trend downward, and visibilities from the
smoke and dust gradually improve as well. Otherwise, the upper
trough will approach with mostly aloft showers expected to remain
west of KPVW and KLBB early this evening. As the upper trough
passes overnight, skies will clear while breezy conditions
continue. Winds will trend northwest late in the evening into the
early morning hours then a cold front will press southward. This
front was already pushing into the northern Texas Panhandle and
may be running a little ahead of schedule already. We are holding
on to the previous frontal passage times for now, but will amend
if it becomes more clear the front will arrive earlier. Dry VFR
expected late in the TAF. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A dynamic mid/upper trough pushing eastward across Colorado and
New Mexico this afternoon is bringing strong winds to much of the
forecast area pretty much as expected. The altocumulus and thick
cirrus out ahead of the trough has delayed the onset of the high
winds, but the strong winds are marching steadily eastward with
the passing of the thickest cirrus. The punch of strongest winds
is from the southwestern counties up through the north central in
line with model solutions that keep the strongest winds primarily
on the Caprock with the exception of moving off it eastwards into
Hall County. Will make a minor adjustment in moving Motley and
Garza counties from the High Wind Warning to the Wind Advisory and
keep the expiration time at 7 pm. Calls to the west and northwest
of Lubbock indicate blowing dust is only an issue in very
localized areas with greater than 3 mile visibility being the
rule. As a result we will forego a Blowing Dust Advisory. Wind
speeds are still on target to begin to decrease around 6-7 pm,
although they are likely to remain breezy through much of the
night. A cold front will shift winds around to the north after
midnight with winds becoming light not too long after sunrise
Wednesday.

The near term has all the interest as the Wednesday through
Tuesday period is looking pretty quiet. After a more amplified
pattern brings northwesterly flow aloft on Wednesday, the flow
becomes more zonal. A low-amplitude ridge Thursday and a weak
upper trough ejecting to our south Friday serving as the only
minor disruptions. Surface ridging will shift to the east of the
region tomorrow afternoon with winds returning to a southerly
direction while the moderate zonal flow aloft will keep to
south to southwest winds in play through Sunday while wind speeds
will be nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year, i.e.,
periodically breezy. Finally, a sharp trough moving onto the
northern Plains Monday will induce west winds across the forecast
area Monday followed by a cold front Monday night. This trough
is further north than previous models runs have depicted it. This
in turn will allow for warmer temperatures Monday as the frontal
passage will be delayed.

FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions have been delayed a bit due to thick cloud
cover. Areas on the Caprock have finally reached solid windy to
very windy categories while RH dropping quickly with the increase
in temperatures. The Rolling Plains may not officially make three
hours of critical conditions this afternoon, but there is no
reason to trim the warning given the synoptic set up.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>044.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ026-031-032-037-
038-042>044.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>025-
027>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

99/99/05


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