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000
FXUS64 KLUB 072106
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPS SOARED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THIS
AFTN...COURTESY OF A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING MODEST W-SW BREEZES
/15-20 MPH/ AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE
AIDED IN PLUMMETING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO 5-15 PERCENT...WITH
LOWEST VALUES NOTED ON THE CAPROCK. THE COMBINATION OF DRY...BREEZY
AND WARM CONDITIONS DOES RAISE CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND THUS A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
CWA-WIDE UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING. FOR FURTHER FIRE WEATHER
INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

WIND SPEEDS /AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/ WILL DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
NEARING OUR DOORSTEP...AS IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE PER 21Z METARS. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT SURGING
SOUTH THIS EVENING...THUS CLEARING THE CWA AOA 09Z. THE 1030 MB SFC
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRIVING THIS FRONT...WILL PROVIDE
PROGGED PRESSURE RISES OF 7-10 MB PER 3 HRS. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE
RISES ARE PROGGED TO OCCUR ACROSS EAST NM AND THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF LOCALIZED
BRIEF WIND SPEEDS OF 30-35 MPH SUSTAINED...WHICH COULD KICK UP SOME
DUST AND IN TURN TEMPORARILY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WILL HELP DECLINE
WIND SPEEDS A BIT THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY /25-30 MPH/ WITH
ENSUING CHANCES OF BLOWING DUST. FURTHERMORE...THIS COLD FRONT WILL
ADVECT IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 0 DEGREES /COLDEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH PLAINS/. THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN
MORE INTERESTING AS AN UA DISTURBANCE TREKKING ESE ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTN...MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
INCREASING UL SUPPORT IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND MOISTENING MID LEVELS WILL CREATE CHANCES
FOR PRECIP...THOUGH QPF SIGNALS ARE RATHER SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT
GIVEN A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE NWRN
ZONES INITIALLY EXPERIENCING PRECIP...EVEN POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...THANKS TO THE RATHER COOL TEMPS ALOFT. ELSEWHERE...A
QUICK SPRITZ OF SPOTTY RAINFALL/VIRGA SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
POST-FRONTAL...BUT HINTS OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT /AS IS
DISPLAYED BY THE NAM AND GFS/ COULD SPELL A MOMENTARY INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS CAUSED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE VIRGA SHOWERS.

TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
FURTHER AND SHOULD THEREFORE SEE A GRADUAL DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS
/THOUGH SPEEDS OF AOA 15-20 MPH WILL STILL OCCUR/. MEANWHILE...THE
UA DISTURBANCE IS EXHIBITED TO SHEAR OUT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
COMMENCES TO EXIT EAST OF THE FA...WHILST THE BASE SHIFTS WELL SW
OF THE REGION /THUS NOT AFFECTING OUR SENSIBLE WX/. LOW-MID CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO FILL IN POST-FRONTAL WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
COULD SEE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE
AFTN HOURS WITH NIL POPS AOA 09/00Z. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORM. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EDGING OVERHEAD SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER
LOW SHOULD SKIRT BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY...WITH UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
RESULTING HERE. THEN...WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PROGRESSIVE PORTION OF THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH EDGES BY TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAST
WARM-UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SOLID WINDY DAY POSSIBLE
TUESDAY. THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT COUPLE OF FRONTS. SLOW WARMING
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK THOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
FLOW...THE NON-PROGRESSIVE PORTION OF THE MID-WEEK TROUGH...LIKELY
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE FANFARE. WE HAVE PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW STRONG BOTH THE PROGRESSIVE AND CUTOFF
PORTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING OF
PASSAGE OF THE LATER...BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ON PAR FOR MARCH. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EARLY THIS EVENING...A NEARBY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS
PROMOTED SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH LATE THIS
AFTN. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEREBY ENCOURAGING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE /LOWEST VALUES NOTED
ON THE CAPROCK/. DRY...BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS /IN ADDITION TO
DRY FUELS/ INCREASES THE FIRE DANGER...AND THUS A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING. WILL ELECT NOT TO ISSUE
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS GIVEN ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING 20 RED FLAG MINUTES OR LESS...LIKELY DUE TO
RELATIVELY BEHAVED WIND SPEEDS. /29

EARLY IN THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS
TUESDAY IN PRE-FRONTAL VERY WARM AND DRY ENVIRONMENT. TUESDAY
CURRENTLY APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO OUTLOOK FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  48  28  64  35 /  40  20   0   0   0
TULIA         31  49  30  65  33 /  30  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  50  30  64  32 /  20  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     34  52  30  65  33 /  20  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  51  31  65  35 /  20  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   35  53  30  64  35 /  20  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  30  64  33 /  20  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     36  49  30  66  36 /  20  30  10   0   0
SPUR          37  52  33  64  36 /  20  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     39  52  30  62  37 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05