Area Forecast Discussion
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476
FXUS64 KLUB 201719
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1119 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR next 24 hours. Gusty northerly winds should begin to subside
by late this afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Added the remainder of the South Plains to the rangeland fire
danger statement given wind trends across the region behind the
cold front.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

SHORT TERM...
An upper level trough axis will pass overhead today after
yesterday`s disappointing precipitation event. Strong subsidence and
atmospheric drying will occur today and tonight in the wake of this
trough leading to a day of full sun. A cold front will move through
the area later this morning and will bring brisk north to
northwesterly winds. However, temperatures will not be affected much
with the aforementioned full sunshine and a dry atmosphere. Although
not a typical fire weather pattern, elevated fire weather conditions
are likely in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle. A dry
atmosphere, breezy winds, and above seasonal average temperatures
will contribute to these elevated fire weather conditions.

LONG TERM...
After an upper ridge axis passes Tuesday with a warm day and
relatively light flow, increasing southwest flow aloft will
gradually spread across the area Wednesday leading to breezy
conditions. Wednesday still appears the warmest day ahead. We
favored the warmer side of guidance both Tuesday and Wednesday.

And a potent upper level low pressure trough is still expected to
move across the Rockies into the central high plains late
Thursday. Solutions are not deepening this system as much as
previously, but still overspread much stronger winds by Thursday
afternoon. Our preferred mix of blended and MOS output continue
to generate a solid windy day Thursday, with perhaps an outside
risk yet of localized high winds. With a less closed low, the cold
front due early Friday appears less firm. We have trended highs
slightly upwards Friday on the Caprock awaiting more conclusive
guidance. Major model solutions drop a somewhat more cohesive cold
front southward early Saturday before it too washes out into
return low level southeast flow late in the day.

Solution agreement decreases regarding the next wave digging
through the intermountain west, and kicking towards the southern
high plains late Sunday. Significant differences on amplitude of
this wave. We have backed down yet again on chances for
precipitation from this wave in now our day 7 period, next Sunday.
But more to come certainly on this in days that follow. RMcQueen

FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle this
afternoon due to strong winds, low relative humidity values, and
above average temperatures.

Wednesday may lead to elevated fire weather potential on the
Caprock as stronger winds aloft begin overspreading the region.
But Thursday still looms as a solid windy day with potential for
Critical or extremely Critical Fire Weather concerns. With a
weaker or delayed front Friday, we also may still see elevated or
possibly even critical fire weather favoring southern areas.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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