Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 151853
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
153 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A large mid/upper level cyclone centered over the CA/AZ/Sonora
borders early this afternoon is progged to make a dash northeastward
to near Prescott, Arizona at 12Z Saturday, then stall, then begin to
wobble slightly westward Saturday afternoon. The short wave trough
that ejected from that low yesterday and has moved across West Texas
today is taking its rainfall across the eastern part of the forecast
area this afternoon with enough subsidence behind it to keep the
remainder of the dry. This condition should hold through the evening
hours, but the next trough to be ejected from the western cyclone
will begin to impinge on the forecast area during the early morning
hours tonight. Another batch of showers is expected to move across
the forecast area, this time likely favoring the southeastern half
of the area. Some moisture transport just above the inversion
overnight will bring a bit of potential instability back into the
southern part of the forecast with a slight chance for thunder, but
the primary mode should be showers. Will tailor PoPs again in a
progressive manner across the forecast favoring west early morning
to east late morning to afternoon. Stratus is unlikely to give way
which will limit the diurnal range in temperatures Saturday. NBM
lows look fine as they are on the warmer end of guidance but it
looks too warm for tomorrow given the expectation of persistent
stratus. As earlier shifts have done, have lowered forecast highs
toward the cooler MOS numbers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The cooler and generally wetter pattern looks to continue for much
of the week as an upper low stalls over the Desert Southwest. This
will keep the more moist southwest flow out ahead of it over the
forecast area. The first notable chance of rain will occur Sunday
afternoon as a shortwave pivots around the low, although significant
totals are not expected. Monday looks to be mostly dry as a weak
ridge develops over west Texas, as well as broad surface high
pressure over the central US. The GFS indicates troughing
redeveloping on Tuesday with another round of light rain potentially
in the afternoon, however the ECMWF remains a bit more optimistic on
the ridge hanging around a bit longer. In any case, the
aforementioned stalled upper low will finally begin to shift
eastward by Wednesday. While GFS is much faster with its progression
and forecast confidence on exact timing is low, one final round of
precipitation will likely occur at some point on Wednesday. Dry
conditions will return by Thursday with more zonal flow aloft and
westerly surface winds. Temperatures will slowly warm each day this
week, from highs the 50s on Sunday to the 70s by Wednesday. No
severe weather is expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Showers and isolated thunder to continue to lift northeastward
across the Rolling Plains and eastern TX Panhandle early in the
TAF period. Ceilings have/will briefly improve with and
immediately behind the precipitation, but MVFR ceilings should
fill back in behind, especially at KLBB and KPVW, before some
improvements back to VFR late afternoon into the evening before
deteriorating again overnight. The next round of showers will come
toward sunrise Saturday. Instability looks to be more limited
than this morning and will run without a TS mention for that
period at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07


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