Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 050537
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A TAD EARLY AS
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A
HALF INCH OR LESS. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FINAL BAND OF SNOW ABOUT TO PUSH THROUGH AMARILLO. ONCE THIS MOVES
THROUGH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL SEE SKIES FURTHER CLEAR
THUS ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO CRATER INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF ALL SITES. COULD STILL
SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY DEGRADATION TO FLIGHT RULES. THE BACK EDGE OF
BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN KDHT AND
KBGD...AND IT WILL CLEAR KLBB BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE BACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER EVENT HAS BEEN QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH
UNFOLD. HOWEVER...EVOLUTION HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE WELL WITH NWP
AND THIS HELPS SOMEWHAT WITH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENINGS FORECAST
AS WELL. OVERALL...WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO WANE...OR AT
LEAST BECOME MORE SHOWERY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
BATCH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH OVER SRN AZ TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE AREA. WHILE SNOW TOTALS WILL VARY A FAIR BIT GIVEN THE PATH OF
INDIVIDUAL BANDS/SHOWERS...WILL INCREASE EXPECTATIONS OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL TO NEAR 2 INCHES. AS NORMAL...HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN
LOCALIZED AREAS IS POSSIBLE--AS IS LOWER ACCUMULATIONS.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CHILLY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO HELP EASE TRAVEL CONCERNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL LARGELY BE UNEVENTFUL ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. OUR UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. WE WILL SEE WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THIS WILL ACT TO MAINLY
CRIMP THE WARMUP LEADING TO A SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE GENERAL TROUGHING...FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SURFACE
TROUGHS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY BUT
WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  14  37  17 / 100  60   0   0
TULIA         28  14  36  18 / 100  60   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  14  36  18 / 100  50   0   0
LEVELLAND     37  17  36  19 / 100  20   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  17  36  19 / 100  30   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  20  37  20 / 100  30   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  19  36  20 / 100  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     29  16  36  20 / 100  60   0   0
SPUR          34  18  36  20 /  90  40   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  18  36  20 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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