Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 240529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1229 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR next 24 hours. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist for the
next day or so. The only significant aviation concern is that
winds will become a bit on the breezy from late this morning
through the afternoon hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

Light rain showers will be ending across the area late this
afternoon as an upper level wave departs to the east; showers may
yet linger into the late afternoon in our southeast corner. Drier
and cool air will continue through the overnight with atypically
strong northwest flow aloft as the upper level low pressure system
steers southward through Missouri. Winds should taper off by
early to mid evening as the lower atmosphere decouples, but still
retain some northerly component much of the night.

A quick and strong warmup will ensue Wednesday with the upper low
heading eventually east towards the mid-Mississippi valley and
upper heights build across the southern high plains. Much drier
air also will take control and high temperatures are expected to
soar back to near normal levels in the mid 80s. Additional warming
will follow Thursday with a flattening upper ridge axis passing
overhead and very warm 850 millibar temperatures in the lower 30s
Centigrade move onto the Caprock. With downslope west to
southwesterly breezes kicking in, Thursday should climb well into
the 90s, and probably reach 100+ at a few locations. Afternoon
humidity levels expected to bottom out sub-10 percent most of the
area. Friday appears quite similar temperatures, wind, and
humidity, while a weak frontal boundary may sag into the
Panhandle. Depending on any convective outflow push, we may see
this boundary edge into our northern zones by early Saturday
though solutions favor it lifting back north during the afternoon.
Precipitable Water levels look to be quite low for our area with
such veered lower and mid level flow, so thunder opportunities
seem quite low even near this boundary.

By late Saturday, a more southerly wave crossing the central
Rockies somewhat in synch with the next Canadian upper low
wobbling through the Prairie Provinces, should be strong enough
to shove a cold front southward Saturday night and drop
temperatures Sunday to near or a little below normal. Still looks
quite dry our vicinity, however.

A valid low chance of thunder may re-emerge early next week
assuming moisture recovers behind that front and the next upper
ridge over the southwest appears as messy as solutions currently
project. Will keep chances trimmed below ensemble methods until
we can latch onto bona-fide lifting mechanisms. RMcQueen




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