Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 191129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
629 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR with breezy conditions as a modest surface low pressure trough
remains across the area. A low amplitude upper level trough was
skirting by this morning just to the south - isolated thunder well
south of KLBB. Could see storms generate along the surface trough
across the Rolling Plains later today, but likely south of KCDS.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

Dryline storms will continue to be in the forecast today with a
brief drying out afterwards.

An upper level jet max will shift to the south today but water
vapor imagery still shows a short wave or two moving out of far
West Texas. Stronger zonal flow aloft will allow the dryline to
mix farther to the east. It is expected to mix off the caprock
into the Rolling Plains. Models are indicating that convergence
along this boundary will be enough to attain convective
initiation by mid afternoon. We will continue to see abundant instability
in place within an area of strong surface heating. Mixed layer
instability values are progged to be around 2000 J/kg similar to
yesterday afternoon. Therefore, any convection this afternoon will
bring a threat of severe weather in the form of damaging winds and
large hail.

We will undergo minor height rises on Wednesday as upper level
winds begin to back in advance of the next upper level trough.
Therefore, dryline storms may be more difficult to develop on
Wednesday and again on Thursday. Greater uncertainty arises by
Thursday with a more diffuse dryline. The weekend trough has
continued to trend slower delaying the onset of precipitation.
Widespread thunderstorm activity may start as early as Friday in
eastern New Mexico close to the state line expanding eastward each
day through at least Tuesday. Deep meridional flow suggests a
heavy rain/flooding pattern which is confirmed in CIPS analog
guidance. Sunday through Tuesday will see the greatest chance of
heavy rain and flooding affecting a large portion of West Texas.
Severe chances are low but non-zero through this time period as
well. The primary threat will be heavy rain and flooding.




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