Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 231127
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to remain throughout the forecast period with winds
becoming southerly later this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Temperatures are near the freezing mark over parts of the
northwest South Plains and southern Panhandle early this morning
and a Frost Advisory is in effect until 9 am for those areas.
After a chilly start and light winds this morning, we should see
a very pleasant afternoon with highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s
and southerly winds gradually returning by afternoon. The
southerly winds should hold up overnight tonight and as such
overnight lows will be considerably warmer...in the upper 40s or
lower 50s. Lipe

LONG TERM...
Southwest winds Monday and Tuesday will bring in much warmer and
drier air out of the Desert Southwest with low afternoon
humidities. Wind speeds are not expected to get up into the
critical fire weather range requiring a fire weather watch, but
will be monitored for the possibility that we might need a
rangeland fire danger statement as we get closer to the day in
question.

As we go into Tuesday night and Wednesday a short wave aloft will
bring in some cooler air in the middle layers of the atmosphere
leading to some elevated instability and the longer range models
hint at some precipitation ahead of and associated with a cold
front early Wednesday. However, we`re leaving rain chances out for
now as the lower layers of the atmosphere appear very dry. As such
the precipitation seen in the models would likely only be in the
form of virga. The better chances of any of said precipitation
would be over the Panhandle and not the South Plains.

The cold front Wednesday will lower afternoon highs from the 80s
seen Monday and Tuesday back to the upper 60s or 70s.

The cold front will be short lived as a broad trough in the upper
atmosphere over the central U.S. leads to a dryline formation over
the region Thursday and Friday. At this point we do not foresee
Thunderstorms along the dryline either Thursday, but it`s a
feature we will be watching as the week progresses.

From Friday into Saturday the long ranger models are coming closer
into agreement showing a deep trough over the Rockies with a 500mb
low centered near the 4-corners region Friday night. This feature
could lead to increasing thunderstorm chances over the weekend.
The best chances will be to or north over parts of the central and
southern plains, but a slight change in the position of the upper
low could lead to big changes in our local weather. Keep watching.
Lipe

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021>024-
027>030.

&&

$$

04/04/04



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