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000
FXUS64 KLUB 191739 AAC
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
Issued by National Weather Service ALBUQUERQUE NM
1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail today with breezy conditions this
afternoon. A lingering sfc bdry over eastern portions of the
forecast area will help spark a round of storms later this
afternoon and evening. These storms will likely stay south of KCDS
however.

Hergert

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service ALBUQUERQUE NM/

UPDATE...
Tweaked PoP grids to reflect current showers/storms over Cottle,
King, and Stonewall, and Kent counties this morning.

Hergert

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Dryline storms will continue to be in the forecast today with a
brief drying out afterwards.

An upper level jet max will shift to the south today but water
vapor imagery still shows a short wave or two moving out of far
West Texas. Stronger zonal flow aloft will allow the dryline to
mix farther to the east. It is expected to mix off the caprock
into the Rolling Plains. Models are indicating that convergence
along this boundary will be enough to attain convective
initiation by mid afternoon. We will continue to see abundant instability
in place within an area of strong surface heating. Mixed layer
instability values are progged to be around 2000 J/kg similar to
yesterday afternoon. Therefore, any convection this afternoon will
bring a threat of severe weather in the form of damaging winds and
large hail.

We will undergo minor height rises on Wednesday as upper level
winds begin to back in advance of the next upper level trough.
Therefore, dryline storms may be more difficult to develop on
Wednesday and again on Thursday. Greater uncertainty arises by
Thursday with a more diffuse dryline. The weekend trough has
continued to trend slower delaying the onset of precipitation.
Widespread thunderstorm activity may start as early as Friday in
eastern New Mexico close to the state line expanding eastward each
day through at least Tuesday. Deep meridional flow suggests a
heavy rain/flooding pattern which is confirmed in CIPS analog
guidance. Sunday through Tuesday will see the greatest chance of
heavy rain and flooding affecting a large portion of West Texas.
Severe chances are low but non-zero through this time period as
well. The primary threat will be heavy rain and flooding.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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