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000
FXUS64 KLUB 240545
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1245 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Currently VFR at all three terminals with showers and
thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of KCDS with periods of
MVFR likely through at least 10z. KPVW may see showers and
thunderstorms spread west and reach their terminal with activity
expected to remain east of KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/


DISCUSSION...
Convective chances are somewhat unclear from this afternoon
through the next several days.

Convection has developed along an advancing cold frontal boundary
oriented east-west from the southern South Plains through the southern
Rolling Plains. Temperatures in excess of 100 degrees with surface
dew points around 50 will support high bases and therefore a wind
threat. This front will bring markedly stronger northeasterly
winds and these winds will continue overnight. This cold front
will bring a very welcome break to the oppressive heat we have
experienced that past week or so. Surface ridging will build in
overnight behind this front with decreasing winds by mid morning.
A subtle short wave aloft may bring thunderstorms from
southwestern Oklahoma to the Rolling Plains tonight. However, this
convective activity is far from certain. It is now supported by
the HRRR and is supported by the TTU WRF to an extent. Elevated
instability above the frontal boundary will not be in short supply
within strong moist southeasterly winds giving some confidence in
this possible overnight convection.

Extensive low level stratus casts doubt on convective chances for
Saturday especially during the daytime hours. Moist isentropic
upglide will keep elevated instability around the area which may
be enough to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models
are again mixed on how Saturday will play out but widespread severe
convection is not anticipated. Northwest flow storms will be more
difficult to come by on Saturday evening but will have stronger
chances on Sunday evening. Low level flow will be more out of the
southeast rather than east with increased instability across the
area into eastern New Mexico. Another day with possible northwest
flow storms will occur on Monday with a continued weak upper level
ridge to the west.

This upper ridge will be suppressed for several days this weekend
into early next week as an upper level system moves into British
Columbia. Tuesday and beyond bring more uncertainty to the
forecast as the upper level ridge begins to strengthen again
leading to increasing heights. Models are differing on the
strength of the system moving out of British Columbia which will
affect the strength of the upper ridge. However, this may only
mean a difference locally of either 90 or 100 degrees by late next
week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/55