364
FXUS64 KLUB 270546
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1246 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
   through much of tonight.

 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon,
   this weekend through early next week.

 - A gradual warming trend through the weekend is expected before
   a weak cool down early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

It`s a wash, rinse, repeat scenario today as monsoonal moisture
continues to stream northeastward through the South Plains. In the
last 24 hours precipitation totals have reminded fairly minimal...
between 0.01 inches and 0.10 inches with a few exceptions here and
there. As we maintain our posture between a dissipating UL trough to
the west and an eastward moving UL high pressure to the east the
expectation is that the moisture along with the scattered showers we
have been seeing for the past 24 hours will continue through at
least tomorrow evening. However, tomorrow as the main flow becomes
more disorganized chances for precipitation  decrease, remaining in
the 15% range area wide. As noted yesterday, with surface CAPE
values nearing 1000 J/kg a storm or two may produce lightning and
strong wind gusts, but overall the severe threat remains low.

Temperatures are the main struggle this afternoon given the
persistent cloud coverage. Have used CONSHORT for high temperatures
today with a peak in the upper 80s west of I27....about 10 degrees
below normal. East of I27 high temperatures will be in the mid to low
90s. Tomorrow temperatures will once again be dependent on how much
cloud coverage and moisture we have, but for now have left the
loaded NBM with highs in the 80s to 90s. Tonight another round of
lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The long term forecast package remains untouched this afternoon with
the FA finding itself beneath the ever persistent upper level ridge
that is expected to dominate over much of the southern half of the
United States through the weekend and into early next week. Despite
upper level ridging overhead, daily chances for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will continue, primarily across our most western
column of counties, through the weekend as an axis of monsoonal
moisture continues to extend across the West Texas region into the
Central Plains. Given the lack of overall forcing and instability
present, the overall severe threat looks to remain low with mostly
steady showers and a few rumbles of thunder possible. Temperatures
will also continue to gradually warm each afternoon through the
weekend, with subsidence at the surface allowing for increased
thickness values across the region. Which combined with the warm
southerly surface winds will result in temperatures climbing into
the lower to upper 90s. Given the presence of moisture through the
lower to mid levels on forecast soundings, along with previous days,
there is a chance any low to mid-level cloud cover that lingers
through parts of the afternoon could hinder daytime highs. However,
confidence in this remains low with the expectation of any cloud
cover, if any, that develops to diminish before peak heating. As we
head into the start of the work week next week, an upper level
trough moving onshore the California coast will work to amplify the
upper level ridge across the Desert Southwest while a secondary
trough digs through the Upper Midwest. As a result, flow aloft will
begin to turn more northerly, with subtle perturbations riding down
the eastern side of the ridge may work with the consistent monsoonal
moisture axis to generate thunderstorms across much of the Caprock
as early as Sunday night through Tuesday. Monday night into Tuesday
night looks to be the best window for precipitation chances, with the
monsoonal plume directed right across the FA. Along with the renewed
precipitation chances, temperatures will likely cool a few degrees
early next week with highs in the 80s to lower 90s thanks to
decreased thickness values and expected cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Scattered to numerous TSRA are likely to continue in the vicinity
of all terminals through at least the next several hours before
diminishing closer to sunrise. PVW and CDS are most likely to see
direct impacts from TSRA with CIGs and visibility possibly falling
to MVFR or IFR within convection. There is greater uncertainty on
whether TS impacts LBB tonight, so will cover with a PROB30 for
the time being. Expect a lull in convective activity from sunrise
through the rest of the morning before additional TSRA develop
this afternoon. Confidence in TS evolution this afternoon is still
very uncertain, so will cover that potential in future TAF
issuances. Outside of convection, VFR will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30