Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 291112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
512 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

VFR conditions through tonight. West winds this morning to veer to
north with the passage of a cold front.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

An upper analysis this morning is showing a long wave trough
covering much of the continental U.S., not unlike the last couple of
days. This trough is anchored by a deep low centered where MN, ND,
and SD come together. The short wave trough that brought wind to the
region yesterday has motored northeastward and is located over MI. A
weak impulse is moving across the Panhandle/South Plains and will
shift quickly eastward this morning taking the mid level cloud cover
with it. Finally, a third impulse continues to dive southeastward
across the intermountain West. This trough will be oriented in a
positively-tilted fashion as it crosses the region tonight.

This setup will translate to a cold front moving into the
northwestern part of the forecast area by about noon today then
moving slowly in a southeastward direction through the afternoon,
sweeping across the remainder of the area this evening. South of
this front breezy west winds will be experienced again today. After
a period of mostly sunny skies this morning, the latter trough will
spread mid cloud back across the region again late afternoon through
the evening. There may be some precipitation attempt to fall from
this mid cloud, but with a dry subcloud air mass it is difficult
seeing much if anything making it to the ground. Certainly
measurable precipitation is very unlikely, and will keep precip
chances very low. Finally, MOS temps look reasonable for both highs
today and lows tonight. About the only deviation is across the
northwest tonight. Clearing skies overnight and light winds should
allow temperatures to fall below MOS, in line with the previous

With exiting trough to the east early Wednesday we`ll continue to
be dry with cooler daytime temps and breezy W-SW afternoon winds
especially along our western counties as upper level pattern
becomes zonal through early Friday ahead of developing system out
of the Pacific Northwest.

There is little doubt in the pattern shift, but plenty of
uncertainty remains in how the system evolves as it attempts to
cutoff and dive south toward northern Mexico by early Friday.
Operational ECMWF/GFS are in good agreement on approach through
midday Friday when the ECMWF becomes more progressive with the
trough axis east of our longitude by late Sunday...while the GFS
keeps the cutoff low in northern Mexico, to our SW, through early
Monday. Difficult to have much confidence in either scenario at
this point, so didn`t stray much from blended guidance accounting
for diurnal temp changes in precip types. CIPS analog guidance
would seem to lean toward GFS solution which would imply mostly
rain with coolest air dropping south behind the system as best
moisture gets pulled south and then shifts east. Longwave pattern
could be getting active with dry and seasonal temps for first
half of next week before another Pacific System develops and
pushes south for the end of next week.





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