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000
FXUS64 KLUB 301747
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

.AVIATION...
BROKEN CIRRUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF A DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013/

SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN BY TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG BELT OF NORTHWESTERLIES OVERSPREADING MUCH
OF THE ROCKIES BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GRADUAL FLATTENING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP NUDGE A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE BY TONIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD
FALL SHORT OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A DECENT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE UNFOLDS
OVER THE AREA TODAY ON DOWNSLOPING BREEZES...SO MAX TEMPS SOME 10
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE CLIMO APPEAR ATTAINABLE EVEN WITH SOME OPAQUE
CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES IN ANTICIPATION OF A THICKER CANOPY OF
CIRRUS AND STEADY WESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MIX SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES MUCH
AS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MAY BE 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WHERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.

THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY SAGS IT SOUTH INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF
WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIRMASS HAVE SOME PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
MID TO LATE WEEK. ALSO IMPACTED ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A
SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A LONGER TIME-FRAME FOR RAIN WHILE
THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MUCH NARROW WINDOW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. STARTED TO TREND TOWARDS A FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS COLD
AIR MASSES LIKE THIS ONE USUALLY ARRIVE FASTER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE
SHOWS AND LEFT POPS ALONE FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEARER.
REGARDLESS...END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS BELOW 40 DEGREES AREA
WIDE ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  32  62  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         62  31  60  30  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     64  35  61  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  36  65  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       67  38  65  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  38  71  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    66  39  70  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  38  66  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          67  41  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     66  45  68  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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